Sex-chromosome differentiation and 'sex races' in the common frog (Rana temporaria).

Sex-chromosome differentiation was recently shown to vary among common frog populations in Fennoscandia, suggesting a trend of increased differentiation with latitude. By rearing families from two contrasted populations (respectively, from northern and southern Sweden), we show this disparity to stem from differences in sex-determination mechanisms rather than in XY-recombination patterns. Offspring from the northern population display equal sex ratios at metamorphosis, with phenotypic sexes that correlate strongly with paternal LG2 haplotypes (the sex chromosome); accordingly, Y haplotypes are markedly differentiated, with male-specific alleles and depressed diversity testifying to their smaller effective population size. In the southern population, by contrast, a majority of juveniles present ovaries at metamorphosis; only later in development do sex ratios return to equilibrium. Even at these later stages, phenotypic sexes correlate only mildly with paternal LG2 haplotypes; accordingly, there are no recognizable Y haplotypes. These distinct patterns of gonadal development fit the concept of 'sex races' proposed in the 1930s, with our two populations assigned to the 'differentiated' and 'semi-differentiated' races, respectively. Our results support the suggestion that 'sex races' differ in the genetic versus epigenetic components of sex determination. Analysing populations from the 'undifferentiated race' with high-density genetic maps should help to further test this hypothesis.

Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

Genetic consequences of population expansions and contractions in the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) since the Late Pleistocene.

Over the past two decades, an increasing amount of phylogeographic work has substantially improved our understanding of African biogeography, in particular the role played by Pleistocene pluvial-drought cycles on terrestrial vertebrates. However, still little is known on the evolutionary history of semi-aquatic animals, which faced tremendous challenges imposed by unpredictable availability of water resources. In this study, we investigate the Late Pleistocene history of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius), using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence variation and range-wide sampling. We documented a global demographic and spatial expansion approximately 0.1-0.3 Myr ago, most likely associated with an episode of massive drainage overflow. These events presumably enabled a historical continent-wide gene flow among hippopotamus populations, and hence, no clear continental-scale genetic structuring remains. Nevertheless, present-day hippopotamus populations are genetically disconnected, probably as a result of the mid-Holocene aridification and contemporary anthropogenic pressures. This unique pattern contrasts with the biogeographic paradigms established for savannah-adapted ungulate mammals and should be further investigated in other water-associated taxa. Our study has important consequences for the conservation of the hippo, an emblematic but threatened species that requires specific protection to curtail its long-term decline.

Impact of common risk factors of fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE: The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN: We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as ≥0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (≥20 g/day for ≥5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS: Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS: Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.

Quality of Qualitative Research in the Health Sciences : Analysis of the Common Criteria Present in 58 Assessment Guidelines by Expert Users

The number of qualitative research methods has grown substantially over the last twenty years, both in social sciences and, more recently, in the health sciences. This growth came with questions on the quality criteria needed to evaluate this work, and numerous guidelines were published. The latters include many discrepancies though, both in their vocabulary and construction. Many expert evaluators decry the absence of consensual and reliable evaluation tools. The authors present the results of an evaluation of 58 existing guidelines in 4 major health science fields (medicine and epidemiology; nursing and health education; social sciences and public health; psychology / psychiatry, research methods and organization) by expert users (article reviewers, experts allocating funds, editors, etc.). The results propose a toolbox containing 12 consensual criteria with the definitions given by expert users. They also indicate in which disciplinary field each type of criteria is known to be more or less essential. Nevertheless, the authors highlight the limitations of the criteria comparability, as soon as one focuses on their specific definitions. They conclude that each criterion in the toolbox must be explained to come to broader consensus and identify definitions that are consensual to all the fields examined and easily operational.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in common variable immunodeficiency: mitigated course under mirtazapine and mefloquine.

Demonstration of survival and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in a 56-year-old patient with common variable immunodeficiency, consisting of severe hypogammaglobulinemia and CD4+ T lymphocytopenia, during continuous treatment with mirtazapine (30 mg/day) and mefloquine (250 mg/week) over 23 months. Regular clinical examinations including Rankin scale and Barthel index, nine-hole peg and box and block tests, Berg balance, 10-m walking tests, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) were done. Laboratory diagnostics included complete blood count and JC virus (JCV) concentration in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The noncoding control region (NCCR) of JCV, important for neurotropism and neurovirulence, was sequenced. Repetitive MRI investigated the course of brain lesions. JCV was detected in increasing concentrations (peak 2568 copies/ml CSF), and its NCCR was genetically rearranged. Under treatment, the rearrangement changed toward the archetype sequence, and later JCV DNA became undetectable. Total brain lesion volume decreased (8.54 to 3.97 cm(3)) and atrophy increased. Barthel (60 to 100 to 80 points) and Rankin (4 to 2 to 3) scores, gait stability, and box and block (7, 35, 25 pieces) and nine-hole peg (300, 50, 300 s) test performances first improved but subsequently worsened. Cognition and walking speed remained stable. Despite initial rapid deterioration, the patient survived under continuous treatment with mirtazapine and mefloquine even though he belongs to a PML subgroup that is usually fatal within a few months. This course was paralleled by JCV clones with presumably lower replication capability before JCV became undetectable. Neurological deficits were due to PML lesions and progressive brain atrophy.

Conflict over multiple-partner mating between males and females of the polygynandrous common lizards.

The optimal number of mate partners for females rarely coincides with that for males, leading to a potential sexual conflict over multiple-partner mating. This suggests that the population sex ratio may affect multiple-partner mating and thus multiple paternity. We investigate the relationship between multiple paternity and the population sex ratio in the polygynandrous common lizard (Lacerta vivipara). In six populations the adult sex ratio was biased toward males, and in another six populations the adult sex ratio was biased toward females, the latter corresponding to the average adult sex ratio encountered in natural populations. In males the frequency and the degree of polygyny were lower in male-biased populations, as expected if competition among males determines polygyny. In females the frequency of polyandry was not different between treatments, and polyandrous females produced larger clutches, suggesting that polyandry might be adaptive. However, in male-biased populations females suffered from reduced reproductive success compared to female-biased populations, and the number of mate partners increased with female body size in polyandrous females. Polyandrous females of male-biased populations showed disproportionately more mating scars, indicating that polyandrous females of male-biased populations had more interactions with males and suggesting that the degree of multiple paternity is controlled by male sexual harassment. Our results thus imply that polyandry may be hierarchically controlled, with females controlling when to mate with multiple partners and male sexual harassment being a proximate determinant of the degree of multiple paternity. The results are also consistent with a sexual conflict in which male behaviors are harmful to females.

Carotenoid-based colours reflect the stress response in the common lizard.

Under chronic stress, carotenoid-based colouration has often been shown to fade. However, the ecological and physiological mechanisms that govern colouration still remain largely unknown. Colour changes may be directly induced by the stressor (for example through reduced carotenoid intake) or due to the activation of the physiological stress response (PSR, e.g. due to increased blood corticosterone concentrations). Here, we tested whether blood corticosterone concentration affected carotenoid-based colouration, and whether a trade-off between colouration and PSR existed. Using the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara), we correlatively and experimentally showed that elevated blood corticosterone levels are associated with increased redness of the lizard's belly. In this study, the effects of corticosterone did not depend on carotenoid ingestion, indicating the absence of a trade-off between colouration and PSR for carotenoids. While carotenoid ingestion increased blood carotenoid concentration, colouration was not modified. This suggests that carotenoid-based colouration of common lizards is not severely limited by dietary carotenoid intake. Together with earlier studies, these findings suggest that the common lizard's carotenoid-based colouration may be a composite trait, consisting of fixed (e.g. genetic) and environmentally elements, the latter reflecting the lizard's PSR.

Female common lizards (Lacerta vivipara) do not adjust their sex-biased investment in relation to the adult sex ratio.

Sex allocation theory predicts that facultative maternal investment in the rare sex should be favoured by natural selection when breeders experience predictable variation in adult sex ratios (ASRs). We found significant spatial and predictable interannual changes in local ASRs within a natural population of the common lizard where the mean ASR is female-biased, thus validating the key assumptions of adaptive sex ratio models. We tested for facultative maternal investment in the rare sex during and after an experimental perturbation of the ASR by creating populations with female-biased or male-biased ASR. Mothers did not adjust their clutch sex ratio during or after the ASR perturbation, but produced sons with a higher body condition in male-biased populations. However, this differential sex allocation did not result in growth or survival differences in offspring. Our results thus contradict the predictions of adaptive models and challenge the idea that facultative investment in the rare sex might be a mechanism regulating the population sex ratio.