Data-driven topo-climatic mapping with machine learning methods

Automatic environmental monitoring networks enforced by wireless communication technologies provide large and ever increasing volumes of data nowadays. The use of this information in natural hazard research is an important issue. Particularly useful for risk assessment and decision making are the spatial maps of hazard-related parameters produced from point observations and available auxiliary information. The purpose of this article is to present and explore the appropriate tools to process large amounts of available data and produce predictions at fine spatial scales. These are the algorithms of machine learning, which are aimed at non-parametric robust modelling of non-linear dependencies from empirical data. The computational efficiency of the data-driven methods allows producing the prediction maps in real time which makes them superior to physical models for the operational use in risk assessment and mitigation. Particularly, this situation encounters in spatial prediction of climatic variables (topo-climatic mapping). In complex topographies of the mountainous regions, the meteorological processes are highly influenced by the relief. The article shows how these relations, possibly regionalized and non-linear, can be modelled from data using the information from digital elevation models. The particular illustration of the developed methodology concerns the mapping of temperatures (including the situations of Föhn and temperature inversion) given the measurements taken from the Swiss meteorological monitoring network. The range of the methods used in the study includes data-driven feature selection, support vector algorithms and artificial neural networks.

Kernel-based Mapping of Meteorological Fields in Complex Orography

Due to the advances in sensor networks and remote sensing technologies, the acquisition and storage rates of meteorological and climatological data increases every day and ask for novel and efficient processing algorithms. A fundamental problem of data analysis and modeling is the spatial prediction of meteorological variables in complex orography, which serves among others to extended climatological analyses, for the assimilation of data into numerical weather prediction models, for preparing inputs to hydrological models and for real time monitoring and short-term forecasting of weather.In this thesis, a new framework for spatial estimation is proposed by taking advantage of a class of algorithms emerging from the statistical learning theory. Nonparametric kernel-based methods for nonlinear data classification, regression and target detection, known as support vector machines (SVM), are adapted for mapping of meteorological variables in complex orography.With the advent of high resolution digital elevation models, the field of spatial prediction met new horizons. In fact, by exploiting image processing tools along with physical heuristics, an incredible number of terrain features which account for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales can be extracted. Such features are highly relevant for the mapping of meteorological variables because they control a considerable part of the spatial variability of meteorological fields in the complex Alpine orography. For instance, patterns of orographic rainfall, wind speed and cold air pools are known to be correlated with particular terrain forms, e.g. convex/concave surfaces and upwind sides of mountain slopes.Kernel-based methods are employed to learn the nonlinear statistical dependence which links the multidimensional space of geographical and topographic explanatory variables to the variable of interest, that is the wind speed as measured at the weather stations or the occurrence of orographic rainfall patterns as extracted from sequences of radar images. Compared to low dimensional models integrating only the geographical coordinates, the proposed framework opens a way to regionalize meteorological variables which are multidimensional in nature and rarely show spatial auto-correlation in the original space making the use of classical geostatistics tangled.The challenges which are explored during the thesis are manifolds. First, the complexity of models is optimized to impose appropriate smoothness properties and reduce the impact of noisy measurements. Secondly, a multiple kernel extension of SVM is considered to select the multiscale features which explain most of the spatial variability of wind speed. Then, SVM target detection methods are implemented to describe the orographic conditions which cause persistent and stationary rainfall patterns. Finally, the optimal splitting of the data is studied to estimate realistic performances and confidence intervals characterizing the uncertainty of predictions.The resulting maps of average wind speeds find applications within renewable resources assessment and opens a route to decrease the temporal scale of analysis to meet hydrological requirements. Furthermore, the maps depicting the susceptibility to orographic rainfall enhancement can be used to improve current radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting systems and to generate stochastic ensembles of precipitation fields conditioned upon the orography.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Chances and limits of method restriction: a detailed analysis of suicide methods in Switzerland.

The objective of this study was to estimate the potential of method restriction as a public health strategy in suicide prevention. Data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and the Swiss Institutes of Forensic Medicine from 2004 were gathered and categorized into suicide submethods according to accessibility to restriction of means. Of suicides in Switzerland, 39.2% are accessible to method restriction. The highest proportions were found in private weapons (13.2%), army weapons (10.4%), and jumps from hot-spots (4.6%). The presented method permits the estimation of the suicide prevention potential of a country by method restriction and the comparison of restriction potentials between suicide methods. In Switzerland, reduction of firearm suicides has the highest potential to reduce the total number of suicides.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Integrated application of geochemical and geophysical methods for hydrogeological impact assessment for tunneling in fractured rock

The interaction of tunneling with groundwater is a problem both from an environmental and an engineering point of view. In fact, tunnel drilling may cause a drawdown of piezometric levels and water inflows into tunnels that may cause problems during excavation of the tunnel. While the influence of tunneling on the regional groundwater systems may be adequately predicted in porous media using analytical solutions, such an approach is difficult to apply in fractured rocks. Numerical solutions are preferable and various conceptual approaches have been proposed to describe and model groundwater flow through fractured rock masses, ranging from equivalent continuum models to discrete fracture network simulation models. However, their application needs many preliminary investigations on the behavior of the groundwater system based on hydrochemical and structural data. To study large scale flow systems in fractured rocks of mountainous terrains, a comprehensive study was conducted in southern Switzerland, using as case studies two infrastructures actually under construction: (i) the Monte Ceneri base railway tunnel (Ticino), and the (ii) San Fedele highway tunnel (Roveredo, Graubiinden). The chosen approach in this study combines the temporal and spatial variation of geochemical and geophysical measurements. About 60 localities from both surface and underlying tunnels were temporarily and spatially monitored during more than one year. At first, the project was focused on the collection of hydrochemical and structural data. A number of springs, selected in the area surrounding the infrastructures, were monitored for discharge, electric conductivity, pH, and temperature. Water samples (springs, tunnel inflows and rains) were taken for isotopic analysis; in particular the stable isotope composition (δ2Η, δ180 values) can reflect the origin of the water, because of spatial (recharge altitude, topography, etc.) and temporal (seasonal) effects on precipitation which in turn strongly influence the isotopic composition of groundwater. Tunnel inflows in the accessible parts of the tunnels were also sampled and, if possible, monitored with time. Noble-gas concentrations and their isotope ratios were used in selected locations to better understand the origin and the circulation of the groundwater. In addition, electrical resistivity and VLF-type electromagnetic surveys were performed to identify water bearing fractures and/or weathered areas that could be intersected at depth during tunnel construction. The main goal of this work was to demonstrate that these hydrogeological data and geophysical methods, combined with structural and hydrogeological information, can be successfully used in order to develop hydrogeological conceptual models of the groundwater flow in regions to be exploited for tunnels. The main results of the project are: (i) to have successfully tested the application of electrical resistivity and VLF-electromagnetic surveys to asses water-bearing zones during tunnel drilling; (ii) to have verified the usefulness of noble gas, major ion and stable isotope compositions as proxies for the detection of faults and to understand the origin of the groundwater and its flow regimes (direct rain water infiltration or groundwater of long residence time); and (iii) to have convincingly tested the combined application of a geochemical and geophysical approach to assess and predict the vulnerability of springs to tunnel drilling. - L'interférence entre eaux souterraines et des tunnels pose des problèmes environnementaux et de génie civile. En fait, la construction d'un tunnel peut faire abaisser le niveau des nappes piézométriques et faire infiltrer de l'eau dans le tunnel et ainsi créer des problème pendant l'excavation. Alors que l'influence de la construction d'un tunnel sur la circulation régionale de l'eau souterraine dans des milieux poreux peut être prédite relativement facilement par des solution analytiques de modèles, ceci devient difficile dans des milieux fissurés. Dans ce cas-là, des solutions numériques sont préférables et plusieurs approches conceptuelles ont été proposées pour décrire et modéliser la circulation d'eau souterraine à travers les roches fissurées, en allant de modèles d'équivalence continue à des modèles de simulation de réseaux de fissures discrètes. Par contre, leur application demande des investigations importantes concernant le comportement du système d'eau souterraine basées sur des données hydrochimiques et structurales. Dans le but d'étudier des grands systèmes de circulation d'eau souterraine dans une région de montagnes, une étude complète a été fait en Suisse italienne, basée sur deux grandes infrastructures actuellement en construction: (i) Le tunnel ferroviaire de base du Monte Ceneri (Tessin) et (ii) le tunnel routière de San Fedele (Roveredo, Grisons). L'approche choisie dans cette étude est la combinaison de variations temporelles et spatiales des mesures géochimiques et géophysiques. Environs 60 localités situées à la surface ainsi que dans les tunnels soujacents ont été suiviès du point de vue temporel et spatial pendant plus de un an. Dans un premier temps le projet se focalisait sur la collecte de données hydrochimiques et structurales. Un certain nombre de sources, sélectionnées dans les environs des infrastructures étudiées ont été suivies pour le débit, la conductivité électrique, le pH et la température. De l'eau (sources, infiltration d'eau de tunnel et pluie) a été échantillonnés pour des analyses isotopiques; ce sont surtout les isotopes stables (δ2Η, δ180) qui peuvent indiquer l'origine d'une eaux, à cause de la dépendance d'effets spatiaux (altitude de recharge, topographie etc.) ainsi que temporels (saisonaux) sur les précipitations météoriques , qui de suite influencent ainsi la composition isotopique de l'eau souterraine. Les infiltrations d'eau dans les tunnels dans les parties accessibles ont également été échantillonnées et si possible suivies au cours du temps. La concentration de gaz nobles et leurs rapports isotopiques ont également été utilisées pour quelques localités pour mieux comprendre l'origine et la circulation de l'eau souterraine. En plus, des campagnes de mesures de la résistivité électrique et électromagnétique de type VLF ont été menées afin d'identifier des zone de fractures ou d'altération qui pourraient interférer avec les tunnels en profondeur pendant la construction. Le but principal de cette étude était de démontrer que ces données hydrogéologiques et géophysiques peuvent être utilisées avec succès pour développer des modèles hydrogéologiques conceptionels de tunnels. Les résultats principaux de ce travail sont : i) d'avoir testé avec succès l'application de méthodes de la tomographie électrique et des campagnes de mesures électromagnétiques de type VLF afin de trouver des zones riches en eau pendant l'excavation d'un tunnel ; ii) d'avoir prouvé l'utilité des gaz nobles, des analyses ioniques et d'isotopes stables pour déterminer l'origine de l'eau infiltrée (de la pluie par le haut ou ascendant de l'eau remontant des profondeurs) et leur flux et pour déterminer la position de failles ; et iii) d'avoir testé d'une manière convainquant l'application combinée de méthodes géochimiques et géophysiques pour juger et prédire la vulnérabilité de sources lors de la construction de tunnels. - L'interazione dei tunnel con il circuito idrico sotterraneo costituisce un problema sia dal punto di vista ambientale che ingegneristico. Lo scavo di un tunnel puô infatti causare abbassamenti dei livelli piezometrici, inoltre le venute d'acqua in galleria sono un notevole problema sia in fase costruttiva che di esercizio. Nel caso di acquiferi in materiale sciolto, l'influenza dello scavo di un tunnel sul circuito idrico sotterraneo, in genere, puô essere adeguatamente predetta attraverso l'applicazione di soluzioni analitiche; al contrario un approccio di questo tipo appare inadeguato nel caso di scavo in roccia. Per gli ammassi rocciosi fratturati sono piuttosto preferibili soluzioni numeriche e, a tal proposito, sono stati proposti diversi approcci concettuali; nella fattispecie l'ammasso roccioso puô essere modellato come un mezzo discreto ο continuo équivalente. Tuttavia, una corretta applicazione di qualsiasi modello numerico richiede necessariamente indagini preliminari sul comportamento del sistema idrico sotterraneo basate su dati idrogeochimici e geologico strutturali. Per approfondire il tema dell'idrogeologia in ammassi rocciosi fratturati tipici di ambienti montani, è stato condotto uno studio multidisciplinare nel sud della Svizzera sfruttando come casi studio due infrastrutture attualmente in costruzione: (i) il tunnel di base del Monte Ceneri (canton Ticino) e (ii) il tunnel autostradale di San Fedele (Roveredo, canton Grigioni). L'approccio di studio scelto ha cercato di integrare misure idrogeochimiche sulla qualité e quantité delle acque e indagini geofisiche. Nella fattispecie sono state campionate le acque in circa 60 punti spazialmente distribuiti sia in superficie che in sotterraneo; laddove possibile il monitoraggio si è temporalmente prolungato per più di un anno. In una prima fase, il progetto di ricerca si è concentrato sull'acquisizione dati. Diverse sorgenti, selezionate nelle aree di possibile influenza attorno allé infrastrutture esaminate, sono state monitorate per quel che concerne i parametri fisico-chimici: portata, conduttività elettrica, pH e temperatura. Campioni d'acqua sono stati prelevati mensilmente su sorgenti, venute d'acqua e precipitazioni, per analisi isotopiche; nella fattispecie, la composizione in isotopi stabili (δ2Η, δ180) tende a riflettere l'origine delle acque, in quanto, variazioni sia spaziali (altitudine di ricarica, topografia, etc.) che temporali (variazioni stagionali) della composizione isotopica delle precipitazioni influenzano anche le acque sotterranee. Laddove possibile, sono state campionate le venute d'acqua in galleria sia puntualmente che al variare del tempo. Le concentrazioni dei gas nobili disciolti nell'acqua e i loro rapporti isotopici sono stati altresi utilizzati in alcuni casi specifici per meglio spiegare l'origine delle acque e le tipologie di circuiti idrici sotterranei. Inoltre, diverse indagini geofisiche di resistività elettrica ed elettromagnetiche a bassissima frequenza (VLF) sono state condotte al fine di individuare le acque sotterranee circolanti attraverso fratture dell'ammasso roccioso. Principale obiettivo di questo lavoro è stato dimostrare come misure idrogeochimiche ed indagini geofisiche possano essere integrate alio scopo di sviluppare opportuni modelli idrogeologici concettuali utili per lo scavo di opere sotterranee. I principali risultati ottenuti al termine di questa ricerca sono stati: (i) aver testato con successo indagini geofisiche (ERT e VLF-EM) per l'individuazione di acque sotterranee circolanti attraverso fratture dell'ammasso roccioso e che possano essere causa di venute d'acqua in galleria durante lo scavo di tunnel; (ii) aver provato l'utilità di analisi su gas nobili, ioni maggiori e isotopi stabili per l'individuazione di faglie e per comprendere l'origine delle acque sotterranee (acque di recente infiltrazione ο provenienti da circolazioni profonde); (iii) aver testato in maniera convincente l'integrazione delle indagini geofisiche e di misure geochimiche per la valutazione della vulnérabilité delle sorgenti durante lo scavo di nuovi tunnel. - "La NLFA (Nouvelle Ligne Ferroviaire à travers les Alpes) axe du Saint-Gothard est le plus important projet de construction de Suisse. En bâtissant la nouvelle ligne du Saint-Gothard, la Suisse réalise un des plus grands projets de protection de l'environnement d'Europe". Cette phrase, qu'on lit comme présentation du projet Alptransit est particulièrement éloquente pour expliquer l'utilité des nouvelles lignes ferroviaires transeuropéens pour le développement durable. Toutefois, comme toutes grandes infrastructures, la construction de nouveaux tunnels ont des impacts inévitables sur l'environnement. En particulier, le possible drainage des eaux souterraines réalisées par le tunnel peut provoquer un abaissement du niveau des nappes piézométriques. De plus, l'écoulement de l'eau à l'intérieur du tunnel, conduit souvent à des problèmes d'ingénierie. Par exemple, d'importantes infiltrations d'eau dans le tunnel peuvent compliquer les phases d'excavation, provoquant un retard dans l'avancement et dans le pire des cas, peuvent mettre en danger la sécurité des travailleurs. Enfin, l'infiltration d'eau peut être un gros problème pendant le fonctionnement du tunnel. Du point de vue de la science, avoir accès à des infrastructures souterraines représente une occasion unique d'obtenir des informations géologiques en profondeur et pour échantillonner des eaux autrement inaccessibles. Dans ce travail, nous avons utilisé une approche pluridisciplinaire qui intègre des mesures d'étude hydrogéochimiques effectués sur les eaux de surface et des investigations géophysiques indirects, tels que la tomographic de résistivité électrique (TRE) et les mesures électromagnétiques de type VLF. L'étude complète a été fait en Suisse italienne, basée sur deux grandes infrastructures actuellement en construction, qui sont le tunnel ferroviaire de base du Monte Ceneri, une partie du susmentionné projet Alptransit, situé entièrement dans le canton Tessin, et le tunnel routière de San Fedele, situé a Roveredo dans le canton des Grisons. Le principal objectif était de montrer comment il était possible d'intégrer les deux approches, géophysiques et géochimiques, afin de répondre à la question de ce que pourraient être les effets possibles dû au drainage causés par les travaux souterrains. L'accès aux galeries ci-dessus a permis une validation adéquate des enquêtes menées confirmant, dans chaque cas, les hypothèses proposées. A cette fin, nous avons fait environ 50 profils géophysiques (28 imageries électrique bidimensionnels et 23 électromagnétiques) dans les zones de possible influence par le tunnel, dans le but d'identifier les fractures et les discontinuités dans lesquelles l'eau souterraine peut circuler. De plus, des eaux ont été échantillonnés dans 60 localités situées la surface ainsi que dans les tunnels subjacents, le suivi mensuelle a duré plus d'un an. Nous avons mesurés tous les principaux paramètres physiques et chimiques: débit, conductivité électrique, pH et température. De plus, des échantillons d'eaux ont été prélevés pour l'analyse mensuelle des isotopes stables de l'hydrogène et de l'oxygène (δ2Η, δ180). Avec ces analyses, ainsi que par la mesure des concentrations des gaz rares dissous dans les eaux et de leurs rapports isotopiques que nous avons effectués dans certains cas spécifiques, il était possible d'expliquer l'origine des différents eaux souterraines, les divers modes de recharge des nappes souterraines, la présence de possible phénomènes de mélange et, en général, de mieux expliquer les circulations d'eaux dans le sous-sol. Le travail, même en constituant qu'une réponse partielle à une question très complexe, a permis d'atteindre certains importants objectifs. D'abord, nous avons testé avec succès l'applicabilité des méthodes géophysiques indirectes (TRE et électromagnétiques de type VLF) pour prédire la présence d'eaux souterraines dans le sous-sol des massifs rocheux. De plus, nous avons démontré l'utilité de l'analyse des gaz rares, des isotopes stables et de l'analyses des ions majeurs pour la détection de failles et pour comprendre l'origine des eaux souterraines (eau de pluie par le haut ou eau remontant des profondeurs). En conclusion, avec cette recherche, on a montré que l'intégration des ces informations (géophysiques et géochimiques) permet le développement de modèles conceptuels appropriés, qui permettant d'expliquer comment l'eau souterraine circule. Ces modèles permettent de prévoir les infiltrations d'eau dans les tunnels et de prédire la vulnérabilité de sources et des autres ressources en eau lors de construction de tunnels.

Nonmolecular methods for the diagnosis of respiratory fungal infections.

Diagnosis of invasive fungal pneumonias by conventional culture methods is difficult to assess and often delayed. Nonmolecular fungal markers have emerged as an important adjunctive tool to support their diagnosis in combination with other clinical, radiologic, and microbiological criteria of invasive fungal diseases. Concerns about the sensitivity and specificity of some tests in different patient populations should lead to warnings about their widespread use. None can identify the emerging and particularly deadly fungal pathogens responsible for mucormycosis. The role of nonmolecular fungal markers should be better defined in combination with other microbiological and radiologic tools in preemptive antifungal strategies.

Differential expression of 240 kDa ConA-binding glycoprotein in vitro and in vivo detected by immunochemical methods.

The expression of the 240 ConA-binding glycoprotein (240 kDa), a marker of synaptic junctions isolated from the rat cerebellum, was studied by immunocytochemical techniques in forebrain and cerebellum from rat and chicken, and in chick dorsal root ganglia. Parallel studies were carried out either on tissue sections or in dissociated cell cultures. In all cases non neuronal cells were not immunostained. The tissue sections of cerebellum from rat and chick exhibited 240 kDa glycoprotein immunoreactivity, especially in the molecular layer, while the forebrain sections from rat and chick did not show any significant immunostaining. In contrast, in dissociated forebrain cell cultures, all neuronal cells expressed 240 kDa glycoprotein immunoreactivity, while glial cells remained totally unlabelled. In tissue sections of dorsal root ganglion (DRG), sensory neurons expressed the 240 kDa only after the embryonic day (E 10). A large number of small neurons in the dorsomedial part of DRG were immunostained with 240 kDa glycoprotein antiserum, whereas only a small number of neurons in the ventrolateral part of the ganglia displayed 240 kDa immunoreactivity. In dissociated DRG cells cultures (mixed or neuron-enriched DRG cell cultures) all the neuronal perikarya but not their processes were stained. These studies indicate that 240 kDa glycoprotein expression is completely modified in cultures of neurons of CNS or PNS since the antigen becomes synthetized in high amount by all cells independent of synapse formation. This demonstrates that the expression of 240 kDa is controlled by the cell environment.

Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.

Sepsis: time to reconsider the concept.

OBJECTIVE: To discuss the difficulty in using the concept of sepsis for clinical trials and propose new ways for designing future trials for severe infections. DESIGN: Short position statement. METHODS AND MAIN RESEARCH: Using a thorough evaluation of the recent literature in the field of severe sepsis and septic shock, the authors challenge the concept of sepsis as used in the past two decades and propose new ideas for designing future trials in this setting. The two main proposals are first to use a systematic assessment of the targeted inflammatory mediators when the study intends to counteract or replace those mediators (e.g., anti-tumor necrosis factor-alpha, activated protein C) and, second, to select more homogeneous populations, coming back to "precise infectious diseases," such as severe community-acquired pneumonia, severe peritonitis, or meningitis. CONCLUSIONS: The concept of sepsis has been useful to help clinicians to suspect and detect severe infections. Due to a considerable heterogeneity in the patients and type of infections included in the trials performed in the last two decades, it has not been useful in demonstrating the efficacy of new compounds. The authors propose a dramatic change in the design of future trials dealing with severe infections.