Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in common variable immunodeficiency: mitigated course under mirtazapine and mefloquine.

Demonstration of survival and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in a 56-year-old patient with common variable immunodeficiency, consisting of severe hypogammaglobulinemia and CD4+ T lymphocytopenia, during continuous treatment with mirtazapine (30 mg/day) and mefloquine (250 mg/week) over 23 months. Regular clinical examinations including Rankin scale and Barthel index, nine-hole peg and box and block tests, Berg balance, 10-m walking tests, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) were done. Laboratory diagnostics included complete blood count and JC virus (JCV) concentration in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The noncoding control region (NCCR) of JCV, important for neurotropism and neurovirulence, was sequenced. Repetitive MRI investigated the course of brain lesions. JCV was detected in increasing concentrations (peak 2568 copies/ml CSF), and its NCCR was genetically rearranged. Under treatment, the rearrangement changed toward the archetype sequence, and later JCV DNA became undetectable. Total brain lesion volume decreased (8.54 to 3.97 cm(3)) and atrophy increased. Barthel (60 to 100 to 80 points) and Rankin (4 to 2 to 3) scores, gait stability, and box and block (7, 35, 25 pieces) and nine-hole peg (300, 50, 300 s) test performances first improved but subsequently worsened. Cognition and walking speed remained stable. Despite initial rapid deterioration, the patient survived under continuous treatment with mirtazapine and mefloquine even though he belongs to a PML subgroup that is usually fatal within a few months. This course was paralleled by JCV clones with presumably lower replication capability before JCV became undetectable. Neurological deficits were due to PML lesions and progressive brain atrophy.

Conflict over multiple-partner mating between males and females of the polygynandrous common lizards.

The optimal number of mate partners for females rarely coincides with that for males, leading to a potential sexual conflict over multiple-partner mating. This suggests that the population sex ratio may affect multiple-partner mating and thus multiple paternity. We investigate the relationship between multiple paternity and the population sex ratio in the polygynandrous common lizard (Lacerta vivipara). In six populations the adult sex ratio was biased toward males, and in another six populations the adult sex ratio was biased toward females, the latter corresponding to the average adult sex ratio encountered in natural populations. In males the frequency and the degree of polygyny were lower in male-biased populations, as expected if competition among males determines polygyny. In females the frequency of polyandry was not different between treatments, and polyandrous females produced larger clutches, suggesting that polyandry might be adaptive. However, in male-biased populations females suffered from reduced reproductive success compared to female-biased populations, and the number of mate partners increased with female body size in polyandrous females. Polyandrous females of male-biased populations showed disproportionately more mating scars, indicating that polyandrous females of male-biased populations had more interactions with males and suggesting that the degree of multiple paternity is controlled by male sexual harassment. Our results thus imply that polyandry may be hierarchically controlled, with females controlling when to mate with multiple partners and male sexual harassment being a proximate determinant of the degree of multiple paternity. The results are also consistent with a sexual conflict in which male behaviors are harmful to females.

Carotenoid-based colours reflect the stress response in the common lizard.

Under chronic stress, carotenoid-based colouration has often been shown to fade. However, the ecological and physiological mechanisms that govern colouration still remain largely unknown. Colour changes may be directly induced by the stressor (for example through reduced carotenoid intake) or due to the activation of the physiological stress response (PSR, e.g. due to increased blood corticosterone concentrations). Here, we tested whether blood corticosterone concentration affected carotenoid-based colouration, and whether a trade-off between colouration and PSR existed. Using the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara), we correlatively and experimentally showed that elevated blood corticosterone levels are associated with increased redness of the lizard's belly. In this study, the effects of corticosterone did not depend on carotenoid ingestion, indicating the absence of a trade-off between colouration and PSR for carotenoids. While carotenoid ingestion increased blood carotenoid concentration, colouration was not modified. This suggests that carotenoid-based colouration of common lizards is not severely limited by dietary carotenoid intake. Together with earlier studies, these findings suggest that the common lizard's carotenoid-based colouration may be a composite trait, consisting of fixed (e.g. genetic) and environmentally elements, the latter reflecting the lizard's PSR.

Female common lizards (Lacerta vivipara) do not adjust their sex-biased investment in relation to the adult sex ratio.

Sex allocation theory predicts that facultative maternal investment in the rare sex should be favoured by natural selection when breeders experience predictable variation in adult sex ratios (ASRs). We found significant spatial and predictable interannual changes in local ASRs within a natural population of the common lizard where the mean ASR is female-biased, thus validating the key assumptions of adaptive sex ratio models. We tested for facultative maternal investment in the rare sex during and after an experimental perturbation of the ASR by creating populations with female-biased or male-biased ASR. Mothers did not adjust their clutch sex ratio during or after the ASR perturbation, but produced sons with a higher body condition in male-biased populations. However, this differential sex allocation did not result in growth or survival differences in offspring. Our results thus contradict the predictions of adaptive models and challenge the idea that facultative investment in the rare sex might be a mechanism regulating the population sex ratio.

Quality assessment of primary care for common mental disorders in isolated communities: Taking advantage of health records.

INTRODUCTION: This article is part of a research study on the organization of primary health care (PHC) for mental health in two of Quebec's remote regions. It introduces a methodological approach based on information found in health records, for assessing the quality of PHC offered to people suffering from depression or anxiety disorders. METHODS: Quality indicators were identified from evidence and case studies were reconstructed using data collected in health records over a 2-year observation period. Data collection was developed using a three-step iterative process: (1) feasibility analysis, (2) development of a data collection tool, and (3) application of the data collection method. The adaptation of quality-of-care indicators to remote regions was appraised according to their relevance, measurability and construct validity in this context. RESULTS: As a result of this process, 18 quality indicators were shown to be relevant, measurable and valid for establishing a critical quality appraisal of four recommended dimensions of PHC clinical processes: recognition, assessment, treatment and follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: There is not only an interest in the use of health records to assess the quality of PHC for mental health in remote regions but also a scientific value for the rigorous and meticulous methodological approach developed in this study. From the perspective of stakeholders in the PHC system of care in remote areas, quality indicators are credible and provide potential for transferability to other contexts. This study brings information that has the potential to identify gaps in and implement solutions adapted to the context.

Continuum of care for persons with common mental health disorders in Nunavik: a descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Changing Directions, Changing Lives, the Mental Health Strategy for Canada, prioritizes the development of coordinated continuums of care in mental health that will bridge the gap in services for Inuit populations. OBJECTIVE: In order to target ways of improving the services provided in these contexts to individuals in Nunavik with depression or anxiety disorders, this research examines delays and disruptions in the continuum of care and clinical, individual and organizational characteristics possibly associated with their occurrences. DESIGN: A total of 155 episodes of care involving a common mental disorder (CMD), incident or recurring, were documented using the clinical records of 79 frontline health and social services (FHSSs) users, aged 14 years and older, living in a community in Nunavik. Each episode of care was divided into 7 stages: (a) detection; (b) assessment; (c) intervention; (d) planning the first follow-up visit; (e) implementation of the first follow-up visit; (f) planning a second follow-up visit; (g) implementation of the second follow-up visit. Sequential analysis of these stages established delays for each one and helped identify when breaks occurred in the continuum of care. Logistic and linear regression analysis determined whether clinical, individual or organizational characteristics influenced the breaks and delays. RESULTS: More than half (62%) the episodes of care were interrupted before the second follow-up. These breaks mostly occurred when planning and completing the first follow-up visit. Episodes of care were more likely to end early when they involved anxiety disorders or symptoms, limited FHSS teams and individuals over 21 years of age. The median delay for the first follow-up visit (30 days) exceeded guideline recommendations significantly (1-2 weeks). CONCLUSION: Clinical primary care approaches for CMDs in Nunavik are currently more reactive than preventive. This suggests that recovery services for those affected are suboptimal.

Environmental influence on the phenotype of ant workers revealed by common garden experiment

Many organism traits vary along environmental gradients. Common garden experiments provide powerful means to disentangle the role of intrinsic factors, such as genetic or maternal effects, from extrinsic environmental factors in shaping phenotypic variation. Here, we investigate body size and lipid content variation in workers of the socially polymorphic ant Formica selysi along several independent elevation gradients in Switzerland. We compare field-collected workers and workers sampled as eggs from the same colonies but reared in common laboratory conditions. Overall, field-collected workers from high elevation are larger than those from low elevation, but the trend varies substantially among valleys. The same pattern is recovered when the eggs are reared in a common garden, which indicates that body size variation along elevation gradients and valleys is partly explained by genetic or maternal effects. However, both body size and lipid content exhibit significantly greater variation in field-collected workers than in laboratory-reared workers. Hence, much of the phenotypic variation results from a plastic response to the environment, rather than from genetic differences. Eggs from different elevations also show no significant difference in development time in the common garden. Overall, selection on individual worker phenotypes is unlikely to drive the altitudinal distribution of single- and multiple-queen colonies in this system, as phenotypic variation tends to be plastic and can be decoupled from social structure. This study provides insights into the interplay between individual phenotypic variation and social organization and how the two jointly respond to differing environmental conditions.