159 resultados para Variance Models


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Biological monitoring of occupational exposure is characterized by important variability, due both to variability in the environment and to biological differences between workers. A quantitative description and understanding of this variability is important for a dependable application of biological monitoring. This work describes this variability,using a toxicokinetic model, for a large range of chemicals for which reference biological reference values exist. A toxicokinetic compartmental model describing both the parent compound and its metabolites was used. For each chemical, compartments were given physiological meaning. Models were elaborated based on physiological, physicochemical, and biochemical data when available, and on half-lives and central compartment concentrations when not available. Fourteen chemicals were studied (arsenic, cadmium, carbon monoxide, chromium, cobalt, ethylbenzene, ethyleneglycol monomethylether, fluorides, lead, mercury, methyl isobutyl ketone, penthachlorophenol, phenol, and toluene), representing 20 biological indicators. Occupational exposures were simulated using Monte Carlo techniques with realistic distributions of both individual physiological parameters and exposure conditions. Resulting biological indicator levels were then analyzed to identify the contribution of environmental and biological variability to total variability. Comparison of predicted biological indicator levels with biological exposure limits showed a high correlation with the model for 19 out of 20 indicators. Variability associated with changes in exposure levels (GSD of 1.5 and 2.0) is shown to be mainly influenced by the kinetics of the biological indicator. Thus, with regard to variability, we can conclude that, for the 14 chemicals modeled, biological monitoring would be preferable to air monitoring. For short half-lives (less than 7 hr), this is very similar to the environmental variability. However, for longer half-lives, estimated variability decreased. [Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene for the following free supplemental resource: tables detailing the CBTK models for all 14 chemicals and the symbol nomenclature that was used.] [Authors]

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Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

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The integrity of central and peripheral nervous system myelin is affected in numerous lipid metabolism disorders. This vulnerability was so far mostly attributed to the extraordinarily high level of lipid synthesis that is required for the formation of myelin, and to the relative autonomy in lipid synthesis of myelinating glial cells because of blood barriers shielding the nervous system from circulating lipids. Recent insights from analysis of inherited lipid disorders, especially those with prevailing lipid depletion and from mouse models with glia-specific disruption of lipid metabolism, shed new light on this issue. The particular lipid composition of myelin, the transport of lipid-associated myelin proteins, and the necessity for timely assembly of the myelin sheath all contribute to the observed vulnerability of myelin to perturbed lipid metabolism. Furthermore, the uptake of external lipids may also play a role in the formation of myelin membranes. In addition to an improved understanding of basic myelin biology, these data provide a foundation for future therapeutic interventions aiming at preserving glial cell integrity in metabolic disorders.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the power of various parameters of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) in detecting unilateral peripheral vestibular dysfunction and in characterizing certain inner ear pathologies. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study of consecutive ambulatory patients presenting with acute onset of peripheral vertigo and spontaneous nystagmus. SETTING: Tertiary referral center. PATIENTS: Seventy-four patients (40 females, 34 males) and 22 normal subjects (11 females, 11 males) were included in the study. Patients were classified in three main diagnoses: vestibular neuritis: 40; viral labyrinthitis: 22; Meniere's disease: 12. METHODS: The VOR function was evaluated by standard caloric and impulse rotary tests (velocity step). A mathematical model of vestibular function was used to characterize the VOR response to rotational stimulation. The diagnostic value of the different VOR parameters was assessed by uni- and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, caloric asymmetry emerged as the most powerful VOR parameter in identifying unilateral vestibular deficit, with a boundary limit set at 20%. In multivariable analysis, the combination of caloric asymmetry and rotational time constant asymmetry significantly improved the discriminatory power over caloric alone (p<0.0001) and produced a detection score with a correct classification of 92.4%. In discriminating labyrinthine diseases, different combinations of the VOR parameters were obtained for each diagnosis (p<0.003) supporting that the VOR characteristics differ between the three inner ear disorders. However, the clinical usefulness of these characteristics in separating the pathologies was limited. CONCLUSION: We propose a powerful logistic model combining the indices of caloric and time constant asymmetries to detect a peripheral vestibular loss, with an accuracy of 92.4%. Based on vestibular data only, the discrimination between the different inner ear diseases is statistically possible, which supports different pathophysiologic changes in labyrinthine pathologies.

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We modeled work performance as outcomes of individual-differences mediated by technical performance. Beyond the "usual suspects" (e.g., general mental ability, and personality), we also measured the ethical development of participants (n = 460). We surmised that ethical development - which has not been extensively studied as a predictor of work performance while controlling for established predictors - captures unique variance in both technical and work performance. Results demonstrated incremental validity for ethical development in predicting technical performance, which in turn predicted work performance. The indirect effect of ethical development was significant too. Our results highlight the importance of process models of performance, which include proximal as well as distal individual differences.

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ABSTRACT The role of chromosomal rearrangements in the speciation process is much debated and many theoretical models have been developed. The shrews of the Sorex araneus group offer extraordinary opportunities to study the relationship between chromosomal variation and speciation. Indeed, this group of morphologically very similar species received a great deal of attention due to its karyotypic variability, which is mainly attributed to Robertsonian fusions. To explore the impact of karyotypic changes on genetic differentiation, we first studied the relationship between genetic and karyotypic structure among Alpine species and among chromosome races of the S. araneus group using Bayesian admixture analyses. The results of these analyses confirmed the taxonomic status of the studied species even though introgression can still be detected between species. Moreover, the strong spatial sub-structure highlighted the role of historical factors (e.g. geographical isolation) on genetic structure. Next, we studied gene flow at the chromosome level to address the question of the impact of chromosomal rearrangements on genetic differentiation. We used flow sorted chromosomes from three different karyotypic taxa of the S. araneus group to map microsatellite markers at the chromosóme arm level. We have been able to map 24 markers and to show that the karyotypic organisation of these taxa is well conserved, which suggests that these markers can be used for further inter-taxa studies. A general prediction of chromosomal speciation models is that genetic differentiation between two taxa should be larger across rearranged chromosomes than across chromosomes common to both taxa. We combined two approaches using mapped microsatellites to test this prediction. First, we studied the genetic differentiation among five shrew taxa placed at different evolutionary levels (i.e. within and among species). In this large scale study, we detected an overall significant difference in genetic structure between rearranged vs. common chromosomes. Moreover, this effect varied among pairwise comparisons, which allowed us to differentiate the role of the karyotypic complexity of hybrids and of the evolutionary divergence between taxa. Secondly, we compared the levels of gene flow measured across common vs. rearranged chromosomes in two karyotypically different hybrid zones (strong vs. low complexity of hybrids), which show similar levels of genetic structure. We detected a significantly stronger genetic structure across rearranged chromosomes in the hybrid zone showing the highest level of hybrid complexity. The large variance observed among loci suggested that other factors, such as the position of markers within the chromosome, also certainly affects genetic structure. In conclusion, our results strongly support the role of chromosomal rearrangements in the reproductive barrier and suggest their importance in speciation process of the S. araneus group. RESUME Le rôle des réarrangements chromosomiques dans les processus de spéciation est fortement débattu et de nombreux modèles théoriques ont été développés sur le sujet. Les musaraignes du groupe Sorex araneus présentent de nombreuses opportunités pour étudier les relations entre les variations chromosomiques et la spéciation. En effet, ce groupe d'espèces morphologiquement très proches a attiré l'attention des chercheurs en raison de sa variabilité caryotypique principalement attribuée à des fusions Robertsoniennes. Pour explorer l'impact des changements caryotypiques sur la différenciation génétique, nous avons tout d'abord étudié les relations entre la structure génétique et caryotypique de races chromosomiques et d'espèces alpine du groupe S. araneus en utilisant des analyses Bayesiennes d' « admixture ». Les résultats de ces analyses ont confirmé le statut taxonomique des espèces étudiées bien que nous ayons détecté de l'introgression entre espèces. L'observation d'une sous structure spatiale relativement forte souligne l'importance des facteurs historiques (telle que l'isolation géographique) sur la structure génétique de ce groupe. Ensuite, nous avons étudié le flux de gène au niveau des chromosomes pour aborder de manière directe la question de l'impact des réarrangements chromosomiques sur la différenciation génétique. En conséquence, nous avons utilisé des tris de chromosomes de trois taxons du groupe S. araneus pour localiser des marqueurs microsatellites au niveau du bras chromosomique. Au cours de cette étude, nous avons pu localiser 24 marqueurs et montrer une forte conservation dans l'organisation du caryotype de ces taxa. Ce résultat suggère que leur utilisation est appropriée pour des études entre taxa. Une prédiction générale à tous les modèles de spéciation chromosomique correspond à la plus grande différenciation génétique des chromosomes réarrangés que des chromosomes communs. Nous avons combiné deux approches utilisant des microsatellites localisés au niveau du bras chromosomique pour tester cette prédiction. Premièrement, nous avons étudié la différenciation génétique entre cinq taxa du groupe S. araneus se trouvant à des niveaux évolutifs différents (i.e. à l'intérieur et entre espèce). Au cours de cette étude, nous avons détecté une différenciation globale significativement plus élevée sur les chromosomes réarrangés. Cet effet varie entre les comparaisons, ce qui nous a permis de souligner le rôle de la complexité caryotypique des hybrides et du niveau de divergence évolutive entre taxa. Deuxièmement, nous avons comparé le flux de gènes des chromosomes communs et réarrangés dans deux zones d'hybridation caryotypiquement différentes (forte vs. Faible complexité des hybrides) mais présentant un niveau de différenciation génétique similaire. Ceci nous a permis de détecter une structure génétique significativement plus élevée sur les chromosomes réarrangés au centre de la zone d'hybridation présentant la plus grande complexité caryotypic. La forte variance observée entre loci souligne en outre le fait que d'autres facteurs, tel que la position du marqueur sur le chromosome, affectent probablement aussi la structure génétique mesurée. En conclusion, nos résultats supportent fortement le rôle des réarrangements chromosomiques dans la barrière reproductive entre espèces ainsi que leur importance dans les processus de spéciation des musaraignes du groupe S. araneus.

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Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.

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Functionally relevant large scale brain dynamics operates within the framework imposed by anatomical connectivity and time delays due to finite transmission speeds. To gain insight on the reliability and comparability of large scale brain network simulations, we investigate the effects of variations in the anatomical connectivity. Two different sets of detailed global connectivity structures are explored, the first extracted from the CoCoMac database and rescaled to the spatial extent of the human brain, the second derived from white-matter tractography applied to diffusion spectrum imaging (DSI) for a human subject. We use the combination of graph theoretical measures of the connection matrices and numerical simulations to explicate the importance of both connectivity strength and delays in shaping dynamic behaviour. Our results demonstrate that the brain dynamics derived from the CoCoMac database are more complex and biologically more realistic than the one based on the DSI database. We propose that the reason for this difference is the absence of directed weights in the DSI connectivity matrix.

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In recent years, both homing endonucleases (HEases) and zinc-finger nucleases (ZFNs) have been engineered and selected for the targeting of desired human loci for gene therapy. However, enzyme engineering is lengthy and expensive and the off-target effect of the manufactured endonucleases is difficult to predict. Moreover, enzymes selected to cleave a human DNA locus may not cleave the homologous locus in the genome of animal models because of sequence divergence, thus hampering attempts to assess the in vivo efficacy and safety of any engineered enzyme prior to its application in human trials. Here, we show that naturally occurring HEases can be found, that cleave desirable human targets. Some of these enzymes are also shown to cleave the homologous sequence in the genome of animal models. In addition, the distribution of off-target effects may be more predictable for native HEases. Based on our experimental observations, we present the HomeBase algorithm, database and web server that allow a high-throughput computational search and assignment of HEases for the targeting of specific loci in the human and other genomes. We validate experimentally the predicted target specificity of candidate fungal, bacterial and archaeal HEases using cell free, yeast and archaeal assays.