Can the trabecular bone score (TBS) be considered as a major clinical risk factor (CRF) of osteoporotic fractures? A meta-like analysis

Abstract: To have an added value over BMD, a CRF of osteoporotic fracture must be predictable of the fracture, independent of BMD, reversible and quantifiable. Many major recognized CRF exist.Out of these factorsmany of themare indirect factor of bone quality. TBS predicts fracture independently of BMD as demonstrated from previous studies. The aim of the study is to verify if TBS can be considered as a major CRF of osteoporotic fracture. Existing validated datasets of Caucasian women were analyzed. These datasets stem from different studies performed by the authors of this report or provided to our group. However, the level of evidence of these studies will vary. Thus, the different datasets were weighted differently according to their design. This meta-like analysis involves more than 32000 women (≥50 years) with 2000 osteoporotic fractures from two prospective studies (OFELY&MANITOBA) and 7 crosssectional studies. Weighted relative risk (RR) for TBS was expressed for each decrease of one standard deviation as well as per tertile difference (TBS=1.300 and 1.200) and compared with those obtained for the major CRF included in FRAX®. Overall TBS RR obtained (adjusted for age) was 1.79 [95%CI-1.37-2.37]. For all women combined, RR for fracture for the lowest comparedwith themiddle TBS tertilewas 1.55[1.46- 1.68] and for the lowest compared with the highest TBS tertile was 2.8[2.70-3.00]. TBS is comparable to most of the major CRF (Fig 1) and thus could be used as one of them. Further studies have to be conducted to confirm these first findings.

The predictive value of trabecular bone score (TBS) on whole lumbar vertebrae mechanics: an ex vivo study.

We investigated the association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with microarchitecture and mechanical behavior of human lumbar vertebrae. We found that TBS reflects vertebral trabecular microarchitecture and is an independent predictor of vertebral mechanics. However, the addition of TBS to areal BMD (aBMD) did not significantly improve prediction of vertebral strength. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level measure of texture using a modified experimental variogram which can be extracted from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The current study aimed to confirm whether TBS is associated with trabecular microarchitecture and mechanics of human lumbar vertebrae, and if its combination with BMD improves prediction of fracture risk. METHODS: Lumbar vertebrae (L3) were harvested fresh from 16 donors. The anteroposterior and lateral bone mineral content (BMC) and areal BMD (aBMD) of the vertebral body were measured using DXA; then, the TBS was extracted using TBS iNsight software (Medimaps SA, France). The trabecular bone volume (Tb.BV/tissue volume, TV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), degree of anisotropy, and structure model index (SMI) were measured using microcomputed tomography. Quasi-static uniaxial compressive testing was performed on L3 vertebral bodies to assess failure load and stiffness. RESULTS: The TBS was significantly correlated to Tb.BV/TV and SMI (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.58 and -0.62; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02, 0.01), but not related to BMC and BMD. TBS was significantly correlated with stiffness (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.64; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.007), independently of bone mass. Using stepwise multiple regression models, we failed to demonstrate that the combination of BMD and TBS was better at explaining mechanical behavior than either variable alone. However, the combination TBS, Tb.Th, and BMC did perform better than each parameter alone, explaining 79 % of the variability in stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, TBS was associated with microarchitecture parameters and with vertebral mechanical behavior, but TBS did not improve prediction of vertebral biomechanical properties in addition to aBMD.

Acute ischemic stroke in children versus young adults.

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare children and young adults with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) in 2 large registries.Methods: We compared clinical characteristics, stroke etiology, workup, and outcome (modified Rankin scale score [mRS] at 3-6 months) in children (1 month-16 years) and young adults (16.1-45 years) with AIS. Data of children were collected prospectively in the nationwide Swiss NeuroPediatric Stroke Registry, young adults in the Bernese stroke database. Outcome (mRS) and stroke severity (pediatric adaptation of the National Institutes of Health stroke scale [PedNIHSS]) in children were calculated retrospectively.Results: From January 2000 to December 2008, 128 children and 199 young adults suffered from an AIS. Children were more likely to be male than young adults (62%/49%, p = 0.023) and less frequently had hypertension (p = 0.001), hypercholesterolemia (p = 0.003), and a family history of stroke (p = 0.048). Stroke severity was similar in children and young adults (median PedNIHSS/NIHSS 5/6; p = 0.102). Stroke etiology (original TOAST classification) was more likely to be "other determined cause" in children than in young adults (51%/29%; p < .001). Cervicocerebral artery dissections were less frequent in children than in young adults (10%/23%; p = 0.005). Outcome at 3 to 6 months did not differ between children and young adults (p = 0.907); 59% of children and 60% of young adults had a favorable outcome (mRS 0-1). Mortality was similar among children and young adults (4%/6%; p = 0.436). In multivariate analysis, low PedNIHSS/NIHSS was the most important predictor of favorable outcome (p < 0.001).Interpretation: Although stroke etiology and risk factors in children and young adults are different, stroke severity and clinical outcome were similar in both groups. ANN NEUROL 2011;70:245-254

Tawny Owl Strix aluco as a bioindicator of Barn Owl Tyto alba breeding and the effect of winter severity on Barn Owl reproduction

In the temperate zone, food availability and winter weather place serious constraints on European Barn Owl Tyto alba populations. Using data collected over 22years in a Swiss population, we analysed the influence of early pre-breeding food conditions and winter severity on between-year variations in population size and reproductive performance. To estimate pre-breeding food conditions, we attempted a novel approach based on an index that combines Tawny Owl Strix aluco reproductive parameters and the occurrence of wood mice Apodemus sp. in their diet. Tawny Owls breed earlier in the season than Barn Owls and are strongly dependent on the abundance of wood mice for breeding. This index was strongly positively associated with the number of breeding pairs and early breeding in the Barn Owl. Winter severity, measured by snow cover and low temperatures, had a pronounced negative influence on the size of the breeding population and clutch size. Food conditions early in the breeding season and winter severity differentially affect the Barn Owl life cycle. We were able to use aspects of the ecology and demography of the Tawny Owl as an indicator of the quality of the environment for a related species of similar ecology, in this case the Barn Owl.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain: a clinical prediction score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Monitoring inflammatory bowel disease activity: clinical activity is judged to be more relevant than endoscopic severity or biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence for the clinical relevance of mucosal healing (MH) as therapeutic treatment goal in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to investigate by which method gastroenterologists monitor IBD activity in daily practice. METHODS: A questionnaire was sent to all board-certified gastroenterologists in Switzerland to specifically address their strategy to monitor IBD between May 2009 and April 2010. RESULTS: The response rate was 57% (153/270). Fifty-two percent of gastroenterologists worked in private practice and 48% worked in hospitals. Seventy-eight percent judged clinical activity to be the most relevant criterion for monitoring IBD activity, 15% chose endoscopic severity, and 7% chose biomarkers. Seventy percent of gastroenterologists based their therapeutic decisions on clinical activity, 24% on endoscopic severity, and 6% on biomarkers. The following biomarkers were used for IBD activity monitoring: CRP, 94%; differential blood count, 78%; fecal calprotectin (FC), 74%; iron status, 63%; blood sedimentation rate, 3%; protein electrophoresis, 0.7%; fecal neutrophils, 0.7%; and vitamin B12, 0.7%. Gastroenterologists in hospitals and those with ≤ 10 years of professional experience used FC more frequently compared with colleagues in private practice (P=0.035) and those with > 10 years of experience (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical activity is judged to be more relevant for monitoring IBD activity and guiding therapeutic decisions than endoscopic severity and biomarkers. As such, the accumulating scientific evidence on the clinical impact of mucosal healing does not yet seem to influence the management of IBD in daily gastroenterologic practice.

Effects of an interleukin-15 antagonist on systemic and skeletal alterations in mice with DSS-induced colitis.

Inflammatory bowel diseases are commonly complicated by weight and bone loss. We hypothesized that IL-15, a pro-inflammatory cytokine expressed in colitis and an osteoclastogenic factor, could play a central role in systemic and skeletal complications of inflammatory bowel diseases. We evaluated the effects of an IL-15 antagonist, CRB-15, in mice with chronic colitis induced by oral 2% dextran sulfate sodium for 1 week, followed by another 1% for 2 weeks. During the last 2 weeks, mice were treated daily with CRB-15 or an IgG2a control antibody. Intestinal inflammation, disease severity, and bone parameters were evaluated at days 14 and 21. CRB-15 improved survival, early weight loss, and colitis clinical score, although colon damage and inflammation were prevented in only half the survivors. CRB-15 also delayed loss of femur bone mineral density and trabecular microarchitecture. Bone loss was characterized by decreased bone formation, but increased bone marrow osteoclast progenitors and osteoclast numbers on bone surfaces. CRB-15 prevented the suppression of osteoblastic markers of bone formation, and reduced osteoclast progenitors at day 14, but not later. However, by day 21, CRB-15 decreased tumor necrosis factor α and increased IL-10 expression in bone, paralleling a reduction of osteoclasts. These results delineate the role of IL-15 on the systemic and skeletal manifestations of chronic colitis and provide a proof-of-concept for future therapeutic developments.

Développement, implémentation et utilisation pratique d'un score diagnostique [Development, implementation and practical use of a diagnostic score].

In recent years many clinical prediction rules (CPR) have been developed. Before a CPR can be used in clinical practice, different methodical steps are necessary, from the development of the score, the internal and external validation to the impact study. Before using a CPR in daily practice family doctors have to verify how the rules have been developed and whether this has been done in a population similar to the population in which they would use them. The aim of this paper is to describe the development of a CPR, and to discuss advantages and risks related to the use of CPR in order to help family doctors in their choice of scores for use in their daily practice.

Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. METHODS: The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). CONCLUSIONS: The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

Comparative short-term response and remission rates for tacrolimus, cyclosporine, and infliximab for steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis

BACKGROUND: Calcineurin inhibitors (cyclosporine (CsA) and tacrolimus (Tcl)) and the anti-TNF-antibody infliximab (IFX) are established therapeutic options in steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis (UC). In acute severe UC failing steroids, a randomized trial showed an 85% short term response to CsA or IFX, with avoidance of colectomy. Comparative responses to the three drugs in outpatients with steroid-refractory UC are unknown. METHOD: Response to treatment in patients with steroid-refractory moderate to severe UC was retrospectively studied in three cohorts of patients: Cohort A (n=24) treated with oral Tcl (initially 0.05mg/kg twice daily, aiming for serum trough levels of 5-10 ng/mL); Cohort B (n=19) treated with intravenous CsA 2mg/kg/daily and then oral CsA 5mg/kg/daily; Cohort C. (n= 41) treated with IFX (5mg/kg intravenously at week 0, 2, 6 and then every 8 weeks). After successful rescue therapy with Tcl or CsA, thiopurine maintenance therapy was introduced. The endpoint was evaluation of clinical remission or response at week 6, on the basis of modified Truelove-Witts severity index (MTWSI). RESULTS: After 6 weeks, 42% (10/24) of patients treated with Tcl achieved remission (MTWSI score ≤4) compared to 47% (9/ 19) on CsA and 66% (27/41) of patients treated with IFX (Tcl & CsA vs IFX p=0.127). Clinical response (decrease of MTWSI score of more than 4 points) at week 6 was reached in 25% (6/24) patients on Tcl, compared to 11% (2/19) on CsA and 20% (8/41) given IFX (p=0.484). Subgroup analysis showed the highest rates of remission in those with moderate steroid-refractory UC treated with IFX: 29% (2/7) in Tcl group compared to 50% (2/4) in CsA group and 76 % (19/25) in IFX group (Tcl &CsA vs IFX p= 0.058) Patients with severe colitis showed similar rates of remission in all three groups: 47% (8/17) on Tcl, 47% (7/ 15) on CsA and 50% (8/16) on IFX (p= 0.700). Colectomy within 6 weeks occurred in 4% (1/24) after Tcl, 5% (1/19) after CsA and 0% (0/41) after IFX. Adverse effects in the first 6 weeks were observed in 13% (3/24) on Tcl, 26% (5/19) on CsA, and 10% (4/41) on IFX (p=0.224) CONCLUSION: No significant differences in response, remission, colectomy rate or adverse events between the three agents were found, although the study is too small for definitive conclusions. There are intriguing differences, with potentially greater response to IFX in moderate, steroid-refractory UC.

Effects of zoledronate versus placebo on spine bone mineral density and microarchitecture assessed by the trabecular bone score in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: A three-year study.

The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an index of bone microarchitectural texture calculated from anteroposterior dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans of the lumbar spine (LS) that predicts fracture risk, independent of bone mineral density (BMD). The aim of this study was to compare the effects of yearly intravenous zoledronate (ZOL) versus placebo (PLB) on LS BMD and TBS in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Changes in TBS were assessed in the subset of 107 patients recruited at the Department of Osteoporosis of the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, who were included in the HORIZON trial. All subjects received adequate calcium and vitamin D3. In these patients randomly assigned to either ZOL (n = 54) or PLB (n = 53) for 3 years, BMD was measured by DXA and TBS assessed by TBS iNsight (v1.9) at baseline and 6, 12, 24, and 36 months after treatment initiation. Baseline characteristics (mean ± SD) were similar between groups in terms of age, 76.8 ± 5.0 years; body mass index (BMI), 24.5 ± 3.6 kg/m(2) ; TBS, 1.178 ± 0.1 but for LS T-score (ZOL-2.9 ± 1.5 versus PLB-2.1 ± 1.5). Changes in LS BMD were significantly greater with ZOL than with PLB at all time points (p < 0.0001 for all), reaching +9.58% versus +1.38% at month 36. Change in TBS was significantly greater with ZOL than with PLB as of month 24, reaching +1.41 versus-0.49% at month 36; p = 0.031, respectively. LS BMD and TBS were weakly correlated (r = 0.20) and there were no correlations between changes in BMD and TBS from baseline at any visit. In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, once-yearly intravenous ZOL therapy significantly increased LS BMD relative to PLB over 3 years and TBS as of 2 years. © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The effect of fluoxetine on the pharmacokinetics and safety of risperidone in psychotic patients

In this open, 30-day trial, the pharmacokinetics, safety and tolerability of a combination therapy of risperidone (4 or 6 mg/day)and fluoxetine (20mg/day from day 6) were evaluated in 11 psychotic inpatients. CYP2D6 genotyping revealed that 3 and 8 patients were poor metabolizers (PMs) and extensive metabolizers (EMs) of debrisoquine, respectively. The mean (+/- SD) AUC of risperidone increased from 83.1 +/- 46.8 ng.h/ml and 398.3 +/- 33.2 ng.h/ml (monotherapy) to 345.1 +/- 158.0 ng.h/ml (p < 0.05) and 514.0 +/- 144.2 ng.h/ml (p < 0.001) when coadministered with fluoxetine in EMs and PMs, respectively. The AUC of the active moiety (risperidone plus 9-hydroxy-risperidone) increased from 470.0 +/- 170.0 ng.h/ml to 663.0 +/- 243.3 ng.h/ml (p < 0.05)and from 576.3 +/- 19.6 ng.h/ml to 788.0 +/- 89.1 ng.h/ml (ns) in EMs and PMs, respectively. In EMs, the AUC of 9-hydroxy-risperidone remained similar (monotherapy vs. combination therapy: 386.8 +/- 153.0 ng.h/ml vs. 317.7 +/- 125.2 ng.h/ml, ns),whereas it increased in PMs (178.3 +/- 23.5 ng.h/ml vs. 274.0 +/- 55.1 ng.h/ml (p < 0.05)). Ten of the 11 patients showed a clinical improvement (reduction of 20% or more in total PANSS score and 70% on the mean MADRS score compared to baseline). The severity and incidence of extrapyramidal symptoms and adverse events did not significantly increase when fluoxetine was added.

Efficiency and safety of bilateral contemporaneous pallidal stimulation (deep brain stimulation) in levodopa-responsive patients with Parkinson's disease with severe motor fluctuations: a 2-year follow-up review.

OBJECT: The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term safety and efficacy of bilateral contemporaneous deep brain stimulation (DBS) in patients who have levodopa-responsive parkinsonism with untreatable motor fluctuations. Bilateral pallidotomy carries a high risk of corticobulbar and cognitive dysfunction. Deep brain stimulation offers new alternatives with major advantages such as reversibility of effects, minimal permanent lesions, and adaptability to individual needs, changes in medication, side effects, and evolution of the disease. METHODS: Patients in whom levodopa-responsive parkinsonism with untreatable severe motor fluctuations has been clinically diagnosed underwent bilateral pallidal magnetic resonance image-guided electrode implantation while receiving a local anesthetic. Pre- and postoperative evaluations at 3-month intervals included Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) scoring, Hoehn and Yahr staging, 24-hour self-assessments, and neuropsychological examinations. Six patients with a mean age of 55 years (mean 42-67 years), a mean duration of disease of 15.5 years (range 12-21 years), a mean "on/off' Hoehn and Yahr stage score of 3/4.2 (range 3-5), and a mean "off' time of 40% (range 20-50%) underwent bilateral contemporaneous pallidal DBS, with a minimum follow-up period lasting 24 months (range 24-30 months). The mean dose of levodopa in these patients could not be changed significantly after the procedure and pergolide was added after 12 months in five patients because of recurring fluctuations despite adjustments in stimulation parameters. All but two patients had no fluctuations until 9 months. Two of the patients reported barely perceptible fluctuations at 12 months and two at 15 months; however, two patients remain without fluctuations at 2 years. The mean improvements in the UPDRS motor score in the off time and the activities of daily living (ADL) score were more than 50%; the mean off time decreased from 40 to 10%, and the mean dyskinesia and complication of treatment scores were reduced to one-third until pergolide was introduced at 12 months. No significant improvement in "on" scores was observed. A slight worsening after 1 year was observed and three patients developed levodopa- and stimulation-resistant gait ignition failure and minimal fluctuations at 1 year. Side effects, which were controlled by modulation of stimulation, included dysarthria, dystonia, and confusion. CONCLUSIONS: Bilateral pallidal DBS is safe and efficient in patients who have levodopa-responsive parkinsonism with severe fluctuations. Major improvements in motor score, ADL score, and off time persisted beyond 2 years after the operation, but signs of decreased efficacy started to be seen after 12 months.

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and copeptin for predicting survival in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Ventilator-associated pneumonia remains the most common nosocomial infection in the critically ill and contributes to significant morbidity. Eventual decisions regarding withdrawal or maximal therapy are demanding and rely on physicians' experience. Additional objective tools for risk assessment may improve medical judgement. Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, reflecting the individual degree of organ dysfunction, might qualify for survival prediction in ventilator-associated pneumonia. We investigated the predictive value of the SOFA score and copeptin in ventilator-associated pneumonia. METHODS: One hundred one patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia were prospectively assessed. Death within 28 days after ventilator-associated pneumonia onset was the primary end point. RESULTS: The SOFA score and the copeptin levels at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset were significantly elevated in nonsurvivors (P = .002 and P = .017, respectively). Both markers had different time courses in survivors and nonsurvivors (P < .001 and P = .006). Mean SOFA (average SOFA of 10 days after VAP onset) was superior in predicting 28-day survival as compared with SOFA and copeptin at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset (area under the curve, 0.90 vs 0.73 and 0.67, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of serial-measured SOFA significantly exceeds those of single SOFA and copeptin measurements. Serial SOFA scores accurately predict outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia.