Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

High-intensity running and plantar-flexor fatigability and plantar-pressure distribution in adolescent runners.

CONTEXT: Fatigue-induced alterations in foot mechanics may lead to structural overload and injury. OBJECTIVES: To investigate how a high-intensity running exercise to exhaustion modifies ankle plantar-flexor and dorsiflexor strength and fatigability, as well as plantar-pressure distribution in adolescent runners. DESIGN: Controlled laboratory study. SETTING: Academy research laboratory. PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS: Eleven male adolescent distance runners (age = 16.9 ± 2.0 years, height = 170.6 ± 10.9 cm, mass = 54.6 ± 8.6 kg) were tested. INTERVENTION(S): All participants performed an exhausting run on a treadmill. An isokinetic plantar-flexor and dorsiflexor maximal-strength test and a fatigue test were performed before and after the exhausting run. Plantar-pressure distribution was assessed at the beginning and end of the exhausting run. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): We recorded plantar-flexor and dorsiflexor peak torques and calculated the fatigue index. Plantar-pressure measurements were recorded 1 minute after the start of the run and before exhaustion. Plantar variables (ie, mean area, contact time, mean pressure, relative load) were determined for 9 selected regions. RESULTS: Isokinetic peak torques were similar before and after the run in both muscle groups, whereas the fatigue index increased in plantar flexion (28.1%; P = .01) but not in dorsiflexion. For the whole foot, mean pressure decreased from 1 minute to the end (-3.4%; P = .003); however, mean area (9.5%; P = .005) and relative load (7.2%; P = .009) increased under the medial midfoot, and contact time increased under the central forefoot (8.3%; P = .01) and the lesser toes (8.9%; P = .008). CONCLUSIONS: Fatigue resistance in the plantar flexors declined after a high-intensity running bout performed by adolescent male distance runners. This phenomenon was associated with increased loading under the medial arch in the fatigued state but without any excessive pronation.

Difference in distribution of microtubule-associated proteins 5a and 5b during the development of cerebral cortex and corpus callosum in cats: dependence on phosphorylation.

MAP5, a microtubule-associated protein characteristic of differentiating neurons, was studied in the developing visual cortex and corpus callosum of the cat. In juvenile cortical tissue, during the first month after birth, MAP5 is present as a protein doublet of molecular weights of 320 and 300 kDa, defined as MAP5a and MAP5b, respectively. MAP5a is the phosphorylated form. MAP5a decreases two weeks after birth and is no longer detectable at the beginning of the second postnatal month; MAP5b also decreases after the second postnatal week but more slowly and it is still present in the adult. In the corpus callosum only MAP5a is present between birth and the end of the first postnatal month. Afterwards only MAP5b is present but decreases in concentration more than 3-fold towards adulthood. Our immunocytochemical studies show MAP5 in somata, dendrites and axonal processes of cortical neurons. In adult tissue it is very prominent in pyramidal cells of layer V. In the corpus callosum MAP5 is present in axons at all ages. There is strong evidence that MAP5a is located in axons while MAP5b seems restricted to somata and dendrites until P28, but is found in callosal axons from P39 onwards. Biochemical experiments indicate that the state of phosphorylation of MAP5 influences its association with structural components. After high speed centrifugation of early postnatal brain tissue, MAP5a remains with pellet fractions while most MAP5b is soluble. In conclusion, phosphorylation of MAP5 may regulate (1) its intracellular distribution within axons and dendrites, and (2) its ability to interact with other subcellular components.

Information security and the enforcement of secrecy : the practical application of quantum key distribution

There is no doubt about the necessity of protecting digital communication: Citizens are entrusting their most confidential and sensitive data to digital processing and communication, and so do governments, corporations, and armed forces. Digital communication networks are also an integral component of many critical infrastructures we are seriously depending on in our daily lives. Transportation services, financial services, energy grids, food production and distribution networks are only a few examples of such infrastructures. Protecting digital communication means protecting confidentiality and integrity by encrypting and authenticating its contents. But most digital communication is not secure today. Nevertheless, some of the most ardent problems could be solved with a more stringent use of current cryptographic technologies. Quite surprisingly, a new cryptographic primitive emerges from the ap-plication of quantum mechanics to information and communication theory: Quantum Key Distribution. QKD is difficult to understand, it is complex, technically challenging, and costly-yet it enables two parties to share a secret key for use in any subsequent cryptographic task, with an unprecedented long-term security. It is disputed, whether technically and economically fea-sible applications can be found. Our vision is, that despite technical difficulty and inherent limitations, Quantum Key Distribution has a great potential and fits well with other cryptographic primitives, enabling the development of highly secure new applications and services. In this thesis we take a structured approach to analyze the practical applicability of QKD and display several use cases of different complexity, for which it can be a technology of choice, either because of its unique forward security features, or because of its practicability.

Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

Factors associated with elevated pulmonary arterial pressure levels on the echocardiographic assessment in patients with prior pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Factors associated with the detection of raised systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) levels in patients with a prior episode of pulmonary embolism (PE) are not well known. METHODS: We used the RIETE Registry database to identify factors associated with the finding of sPAP levels ≥50 mm Hg on trans-thoracic echocardiography, in 557 patients with a prior episode of acute, symptomatic PE. RESULTS: Sixty-two patients (11.1%; 95% CI: 8.72-14.1) had sPAP levels ≥50 mm Hg. These patients were more likely women, older, and more likely had chronic lung disease, heart failure, renal insufficiency or leg varicosities than those with PAP levels <50mm Hg. During the index PE event, they more likely had recent immobility, and more likely presented with hypoxemia, increased sPAP levels, atrial fibrillation, or right bundle branch block. On multivariate analysis, women aged ≥70 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.0-3.7), chronic heart or chronic lung disease (HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.3-4.4), atrial fibrillation at PE presentation (HR: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.3-6.1) or varicose veins (HR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.0-3.3) were all associated with an increased risk to have raised sPAP levels. Chronic heart disease, varicose veins, and atrial fibrillation were independent predictors in women, while chronic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, a right bundle branch block or an S1Q3T3 pattern on the electrocardiogram were independent predictors in men. CONCLUSIONS: Women aged ≥70 years more likely had raised sPAP levels than men after a PE episode. Additional variables influencing this risk seem to differ according to gender.