196 resultados para Prediction theory.


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Signals increase the fitness of a sender by altering the behaviour of receivers. For cooperative interactions biological market theory proposes that signalling strength may be linked to supply and demand. In this context, a recent laboratory experiment demonstrated that cleaner shrimps may advertise their service to client reef fish and that the advertisement is linked to hunger levels. We investigated signalling by the cleaner shrimp Periclimenes longicarpus in the field to test more detailed predictions of biological market theory. Shrimps often clapped with their pair of claws in response to approaching clients. In line with both theory and the previous study, the probability of clapping increased when the shrimps had been food deprived and clapping shrimps were more likely to clean than nonclapping individuals. However, we found no evidence for the market theory prediction that signalling was targeted specifically to visiting client species with the option to choose other cleaning stations. Instead, shrimps signalled more frequently towards predatory clients than towards nonpredatory clients. We conclude that the signal does not serve primarily to attract the choosy clients but to convey information about identity as preconflict management to avoid predation.

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Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) affects mortality, morbidity and cost of critical care. Reliable risk estimation might improve end-of-life decisions, resource allocation and outcome. Several scoring systems for survival prediction have been established and optimised over the last decades. Recently, new biomarkers have gained interest in the prognostic field. We assessed whether midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) and procalcitonin (PCT) improve the predictive value of the Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS) II and Sequential Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) in VAP. Specified end-points of a prospective multinational trial including 101 patients with VAP were analysed. Death <28 days after VAP onset was the primary end-point. MR-proANP and PCT were elevated at the onset of VAP in nonsurvivors compared with survivors (p = 0.003 and p = 0.017, respectively) and their slope of decline differed significantly (p = 0.018 and p = 0.039, respectively). Patients with the highest MR-proANP quartile at VAP onset were at increased risk for death (log rank p = 0.013). In a logistic regression model, MR-proANP was identified as the best predictor of survival. Adding MR-proANP and PCT to SAPS II and SOFA improved their predictive properties (area under the curve 0.895 and 0.880). We conclude that the combination of two biomarkers, MR-proANP and PCT, improve survival prediction of clinical severity scores in VAP.

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Variable queen mating frequencies provide a unique opportunity to study the resolution of worker-queen conflict over sex ratio in social Hymenoptera, because the conflict is maximal in colonies headed by a singly mated queen and is weak or nonexistent in colonies headed by a multiply mated queen. In the wood ant Formica exsecta, workers in colonies with a singly mated queen, but not those in colonies with a multiply mated queen, altered the sex ratio of queen-laid eggs by eliminating males to preferentially raise queens. By this conditional response to queen mating frequency, workers enhance their inclusive fitness.

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MicroRNAs (miRs) are involved in the pathogenesis of several neoplasms; however, there are no data on their expression patterns and possible roles in adrenocortical tumors. Our objective was to study adrenocortical tumors by an integrative bioinformatics analysis involving miR and transcriptomics profiling, pathway analysis, and a novel, tissue-specific miR target prediction approach. Thirty-six tissue samples including normal adrenocortical tissues, benign adenomas, and adrenocortical carcinomas (ACC) were studied by simultaneous miR and mRNA profiling. A novel data-processing software was used to identify all predicted miR-mRNA interactions retrieved from PicTar, TargetScan, and miRBase. Tissue-specific target prediction was achieved by filtering out mRNAs with undetectable expression and searching for mRNA targets with inverse expression alterations as their regulatory miRs. Target sets and significant microarray data were subjected to Ingenuity Pathway Analysis. Six miRs with significantly different expression were found. miR-184 and miR-503 showed significantly higher, whereas miR-511 and miR-214 showed significantly lower expression in ACCs than in other groups. Expression of miR-210 was significantly lower in cortisol-secreting adenomas than in ACCs. By calculating the difference between dCT(miR-511) and dCT(miR-503) (delta cycle threshold), ACCs could be distinguished from benign adenomas with high sensitivity and specificity. Pathway analysis revealed the possible involvement of G2/M checkpoint damage in ACC pathogenesis. To our knowledge, this is the first report describing miR expression patterns and pathway analysis in sporadic adrenocortical tumors. miR biomarkers may be helpful for the diagnosis of adrenocortical malignancy. This tissue-specific target prediction approach may be used in other tumors too.

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On the basis of literature values, the relationship between fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass (FM), and resting energy expenditure [REE (kJ/24 h)] was determined for 213 adults (86 males, 127 females). The objectives were to develop a mathematical model to predict REE based on body composition and to evaluate the contribution of FFM and FM to REE. The following regression equations were derived: 1) REE = 1265 + (93.3 x FFM) (r2 = 0.727, P < 0.001); 2) REE = 1114 + (90.4 x FFM) + (13.2 x FM) (R2 = 0.743, P < 0.001); and 3) REE = (108 x FFM) + (16.9 x FM) (R2 = 0.986, P < 0.001). FM explained only a small part of the variation remaining after FFM was accounted for. The models that include both FFM and FM are useful in examination of the changes in REE that occur with a change in both the FFM and FM. To account for more of the variability in REE, FFM will have to be divided into organ mass and skeletal muscle mass in future analyses.

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From a theoretical perspective, an extension to the Full Range leadership Theory (FRLT) seems needed. In this paper, we explain why instrumental leadership--a class of leadership includes leader behaviors focusing on task and strategic aspects that are neither values nor exchange oriented--can fulfill this extension. Instrument leadership is composed of four factors: environmental monitoring, strategy formulation and implementation, path-goal facilitation and outcome monitoring; these aspects of leadership are currently not included in any of the FRLT's nine leadership scales (as measured by the MLQ--Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire). We present results from two empirical studies using very large samples from a wide array of countries (N > 3,000) to examine the factorial, discriminant and criterion-related validity of the instrumental leadership scales. We find support for a four-factor instrumental leadership model, which explains incremental variance in leader outcomes in over and above transactional and transformational leadership.

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In the 1920s, Ronald Fisher developed the theory behind the p value and Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson developed the theory of hypothesis testing. These distinct theories have provided researchers important quantitative tools to confirm or refute their hypotheses. The p value is the probability to obtain an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed presuming the null hypothesis of no effect is true; it gives researchers a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. As commonly used, investigators will select a threshold p value below which they will reject the null hypothesis. The theory of hypothesis testing allows researchers to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis of some effect. As commonly used, investigators choose Type I error (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true) and Type II error (accepting the null hypothesis when it is false) levels and determine some critical region. If the test statistic falls into that critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Despite similarities between the two, the p value and the theory of hypothesis testing are different theories that often are misunderstood and confused, leading researchers to improper conclusions. Perhaps the most common misconception is to consider the p value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true rather than the probability of obtaining the difference observed, or one that is more extreme, considering the null is true. Another concern is the risk that an important proportion of statistically significant results are falsely significant. Researchers should have a minimum understanding of these two theories so that they are better able to plan, conduct, interpret, and report scientific experiments.

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BACKGROUND: The Marburg Heart Score (MHS) aims to assist GPs in safely ruling out coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients presenting with chest pain, and to guide management decisions. AIM: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS in an independent sample and to evaluate the generalisability to new patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional diagnostic study with delayed-type reference standard in general practice in Hesse, Germany. METHOD: Fifty-six German GPs recruited 844 males and females aged ≥ 35 years, presenting between July 2009 and February 2010 with chest pain. Baseline data included the items of the MHS. Data on the subsequent course of chest pain, investigations, hospitalisations, and medication were collected over 6 months and were reviewed by an independent expert panel. CHD was the reference condition. Measures of diagnostic accuracy included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and predictive values. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.80 to 0.88). For a cut-off value of 3, the MHS showed a sensitivity of 89.1% (95% CI = 81.1% to 94.0%), a specificity of 63.5% (95% CI = 60.0% to 66.9%), a positive predictive value of 23.3% (95% CI = 19.2% to 28.0%), and a negative predictive value of 97.9% (95% CI = 96.2% to 98.9%). CONCLUSION: Considering the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS, its generalisability, and ease of application, its use in clinical practice is recommended.

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The methylation status of the O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) gene is an important predictive biomarker for benefit from alkylating agent therapy in glioblastoma. Recent studies in anaplastic glioma suggest a prognostic value for MGMT methylation. Investigation of pathogenetic and epigenetic features of this intriguingly distinct behavior requires accurate MGMT classification to assess high throughput molecular databases. Promoter methylation-mediated gene silencing is strongly dependent on the location of the methylated CpGs, complicating classification. Using the HumanMethylation450 (HM-450K) BeadChip interrogating 176 CpGs annotated for the MGMT gene, with 14 located in the promoter, two distinct regions in the CpG island of the promoter were identified with high importance for gene silencing and outcome prediction. A logistic regression model (MGMT-STP27) comprising probes cg1243587 and cg12981137 provided good classification properties and prognostic value (kappa = 0.85; log-rank p < 0.001) using a training-set of 63 glioblastomas from homogenously treated patients, for whom MGMT methylation was previously shown to be predictive for outcome based on classification by methylation-specific PCR. MGMT-STP27 was successfully validated in an independent cohort of chemo-radiotherapy-treated glioblastoma patients (n = 50; kappa = 0.88; outcome, log-rank p < 0.001). Lower prevalence of MGMT methylation among CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) positive tumors was found in glioblastomas from The Cancer Genome Atlas than in low grade and anaplastic glioma cohorts, while in CIMP-negative gliomas MGMT was classified as methylated in approximately 50 % regardless of tumor grade. The proposed MGMT-STP27 prediction model allows mining of datasets derived on the HM-450K or HM-27K BeadChip to explore effects of distinct epigenetic context of MGMT methylation suspected to modulate treatment resistance in different tumor types.

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Voxel-based morphometry from conventional T1-weighted images has proved effective to quantify Alzheimer's disease (AD) related brain atrophy and to enable fairly accurate automated classification of AD patients, mild cognitive impaired patients (MCI) and elderly controls. Little is known, however, about the classification power of volume-based morphometry, where features of interest consist of a few brain structure volumes (e.g. hippocampi, lobes, ventricles) as opposed to hundreds of thousands of voxel-wise gray matter concentrations. In this work, we experimentally evaluate two distinct volume-based morphometry algorithms (FreeSurfer and an in-house algorithm called MorphoBox) for automatic disease classification on a standardized data set from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Results indicate that both algorithms achieve classification accuracy comparable to the conventional whole-brain voxel-based morphometry pipeline using SPM for AD vs elderly controls and MCI vs controls, and higher accuracy for classification of AD vs MCI and early vs late AD converters, thereby demonstrating the potential of volume-based morphometry to assist diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease.

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Human inhibitor NF-κB kinase 2 (hIKK-2) is the primary component responsible for activating NF-κB in response to various inflammatory stimuli. Thus, synthetic ATP-competitive inhibitors for hIKK-2 have been developed as anti-inflammatory compounds. We recently reported a virtual screening protocol (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0016903) that is able to identify hIKK-2 inhibitors that are not structurally related to any known molecule that inhibits hIKK-2 and that have never been reported to have anti-inflammatory activity. In this study, a stricter version of this protocol was applied to an in-house database of 29,779 natural products annotated with their natural source. The search identified 274 molecules (isolated from 453 different natural extracts) predicted to inhibit hIKK-2. An exhaustive bibliographic search revealed that anti-inflammatory activity has been previously described for: (a) 36 out of these 453 extracts; and (b) 17 out of 30 virtual screening hits present in these 36 extracts. Only one of the remaining 13 hit molecules in these extracts shows chemical similarity with known synthetic hIKK-2 inhibitors. Therefore, it is plausible that a significant portion of the remaining 12 hit molecules are lead-hopping candidates for the development of new hIKK-2 inhibitors.