Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal ?

Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze a semi-open economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector has not. This enables the central bank to choose an interest rate different from the international rate. We examine the optimal policy of the central bank by modelling it as a Ramsey planner who can choose the level of domestic public debt and of international reserves. The central bank can improve savings opportunities of credit-constrained consumers modelled as in Woodford (1990). We find that in a steady state it is optimal for the central bank to replicate the open economy, i.e., to issue debt financed by the accumulation of reserves so that the domestic interest rate equals the foreign rate. When the economy is in transition, however, a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility and the optimal interest rate differs from the international rate. We argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate. We also find that capital controls can still help reach the first best when the planner has more fiscal instruments.

Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

This paper considers an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. It studies a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, it assumes limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. The paper analyzes the optimal exchange rate policy by modeling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Its main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. The paper also shows that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

Short-Term Heparin Kinetics during Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (CA-AF) is a treatment option for symptomatic drug-refractory atrial fibrillation (AF). CA-AF carries a risk for thromboembolic complications that has been minimized by the use of intraprocedural intravenous unfractionated heparin (UFH). The optimal administration of UFH as well as its kinetics are not well established and need to be precisely determined. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total 102 of consecutive patients suffering from symptomatic drug-refractory AF underwent CA-AF. The mean age was 61 ± 10 years old. After transseptal puncture of the fossa ovalis, weight-adjusted UFH bolus (100 U/kg) was infused. A significant increase in activated clotting time (ACT) was observed from an average value of 100 ± 27 seconds at baseline, to 355 ± 94 seconds at 10 min (T10), to 375 ± 90 seconds at 20 min (T20). Twenty-four patients failed to reach the targeted ACT value of ≥300 seconds at T10 and more than half of these remained with subtherapeutic ACT values at T20. This subset of patients showed similar clinical characteristics and amount of UFH but were more frequently prescribed preprocedural vitamin K1 than the rest of the study population. CONCLUSIONS: In a typical intervention setting, UFH displays unexpected slow anticoagulation kinetics in a significant proportion of procedures up to 20 minutes after infusion. These findings support the infusion of UFH before transseptal puncture or any left-sided catheterization with early ACT measurements to identify patients with delayed kinetics. They are in line with recent guidelines to perform CA-AF under therapeutic anticoagulation.

High c-Met expression in stage I-II pancreatic adenocarcinoma: proposal for an immunostaining scoring method and correlation with poor prognosis.

AIMS: c-Met is an emerging biomarker in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC); there is no consensus regarding the immunostaining scoring method for this marker. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of c-Met overexpression in resected PDAC, and to elaborate a robust and reproducible scoring method for c-Met immunostaining in this setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: c-Met immunostaining was graded according to the validated MetMab score, a classic visual scale combining surface and intensity (SI score), or a simplified score (high c-Met: ≥20% of tumour cells with strong membranous staining), in stage I-II PDAC. A computer-assisted classification method (Aperio software) was developed. Clinicopathological parameters were correlated with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival(OS). One hundred and forty-nine patients were analysed retrospectively in a two-step process. Thirty-seven samples (whole slides) were analysed as a pre-run test. Reproducibility values were optimal with the simplified score (kappa = 0.773); high c-Met expression (7/37) was associated with shorter DFS [hazard ratio (HR) 3.456, P = 0.0036] and OS (HR 4.257, P = 0.0004). c-Met expression was concordant on whole slides and tissue microarrays in 87.9% of samples, and quantifiable with a specific computer-assisted algorithm. In the whole cohort (n = 131), patients with c-Met(high) tumours (36/131) had significantly shorter DFS (9.3 versus 20.0 months, HR 2.165, P = 0.0005) and OS (18.2 versus 35.0 months, HR 1.832, P = 0.0098) in univariate and multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Simplified c-Met expression is an independent prognostic marker in stage I-II PDAC that may help to identify patients with a high risk of tumour relapse and poor survival.

CT attenuation values of blood and myocardium: rationale for accurate coronary artery calcifications detection with multi-detector CT.

OBJECTIVES: To determine inter-session and intra/inter-individual variations of the attenuations of aortic blood/myocardium with MDCT in the context of calcium scoring. To evaluate whether these variations are dependent on patients' characteristics. METHODS: Fifty-four volunteers were evaluated with calcium scoring non-enhanced CT. We measured attenuations (inter-individual variation) and standard deviations (SD, intra-individual variation) of the blood in the ascending aorta and of the myocardium of left ventricle. Every volunteer was examined twice to study the inter-session variation. The fat pad thickness at the sternum and noise (SD of air) were measured too. These values were correlated with the measured aortic/ventricular attenuations and their SDs (Pearson). Historically fixed thresholds (90 and 130 HU) were tested against different models based on attenuations of blood/ventricle. RESULTS: The mean attenuation was 46 HU (range, 17-84 HU) with mean SD 23 HU for the blood, and 39 HU (10-82 HU) with mean SD 18 HU for the myocardium. The attenuation/SD of the blood were significantly higher than those of the myocardium (p < 0.01). The inter-session variation was not significant. There was a poor correlation between SD of aortic blood/ventricle with fat thickness/noise. Based on existing models, 90 HU threshold offers a confidence interval of approximately 95% and 130 HU more than 99%. CONCLUSIONS: Historical thresholds offer high confidence intervals for exclusion of aortic blood/myocardium and by the way for detecting calcifications. Nevertheless, considering the large variations of blood/myocardium CT values and the influence of patient's characteristics, a better approach might be an adaptive threshold.

Identifying Individual T Cell Receptors of Optimal Avidity for Tumor Antigens.

Cytotoxic T cells recognize, via their T cell receptors (TCRs), small antigenic peptides presented by the major histocompatibility complex (pMHC) on the surface of professional antigen-presenting cells and infected or malignant cells. The efficiency of T cell triggering critically depends on TCR binding to cognate pMHC, i.e., the TCR-pMHC structural avidity. The binding and kinetic attributes of this interaction are key parameters for protective T cell-mediated immunity, with stronger TCR-pMHC interactions conferring superior T cell activation and responsiveness than weaker ones. However, high-avidity TCRs are not always available, particularly among self/tumor antigen-specific T cells, most of which are eliminated by central and peripheral deletion mechanisms. Consequently, systematic assessment of T cell avidity can greatly help distinguishing protective from non-protective T cells. Here, we review novel strategies to assess TCR-pMHC interaction kinetics, enabling the identification of the functionally most-relevant T cells. We also discuss the significance of these technologies in determining which cells within a naturally occurring polyclonal tumor-specific T cell response would offer the best clinical benefit for use in adoptive therapies, with or without T cell engineering.

Normal values for pancreatic stone protein in different age groups.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic stone protein (PSP) has been identified as a promising sepsis marker in adults, children and neonates. However, data on population-based reference values are lacking. This study aimed to establish age-specific reference values for PSP. METHODS: PSP was determined using a specific ELISA. PSP serum concentrations were determined in 372 healthy subjects including 217 neonates, 94 infants and children up to 16 years, and 61 adults. The adjacent categories method was used to determine which age categories had significantly different PSP concentrations. RESULTS: PSP circulating levels were not gender-dependent and ranged from 1.0 to 99.4 ng/ml with a median of 9.2 ng/ml. PSP increased significantly between the age categories, from a median of 2.6 ng/ml in very preterm newborns, to 6.3 ng/ml in term newborns, to 16.1 ng/ml in older children (p < 0.001). PSP levels were higher on postnatal day three compared to levels measured immediately post delivery (p < 0.001). Paired umbilical artery and umbilical vein samples were strongly correlated (p < 0.001). Simultaneously obtained capillary heel-prick versus venous samples showed a good level of agreement for PSP (Rho 0.89, bias 19 %). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides age-specific normal values that may be used to define cut-offs for future trials on PSP. We demonstrate an age-dependent increase of PSP from birth to childhood.

Efficacy of an eradication schema in case of Pseudomonas aeruginosa primo-infection in children with cystic fibrosis

Introduction: Patients with Cystic fibrosis (CF) are more susceptible to pathogens like P. aeruginosa (PA). PA primo-infection requires particular attention as failure in eradication is associated with accelerated lung deterioration. The main aim of this study is to assess the rate of PA eradication according to our particular protocol with inhaled tobramycin and oral ciprofloxacin, as there is no consensus in the literature on what eradication protocol is optimal. Methods: Retrospective single centre study with data analysis from June 1st 2007 to June 1st 2011 of patients with PA primo-infection exclusively treated by 3 x 28 days of inhaled tobramycin and oral ciprofloxacin for the first and last 21 days. Success in eradication is defined by ≥ 3 negative bacteriologies for 6 months after the beginning of the protocol. If ≥ 1 bacteriology is positive, we consider the eradication as a failure. Results: Out of 41 patients, 18 followed the eradication protocol and were included in our analysis (7 girls (38.9%) and 11 boys (61.1%)). Boys had 12 primo-infections and girls had 8. Among these 20 primo-infections, 16 (80%) had an overall success in eradication and 4 (20%) a failure. There was no significant statistical differences in age between these groups (t-test = 0.07, p = 0.94), nor for FEV1% (t-test = 0.96, p = 0.41) or BMI (t-test = 1.35, p = 0.27). Rate of success was 100% for girls and 66.6% for boys. Conclusion: Our protocol succeeded in an overall eradication rate of 80%, without statistical significant impact on FEV1 % and BMI values. However, there was a sex difference with eradication rates in girls (100%) and boys (66.6%). A sex difference has not yet been reported in the literature. This should be evaluated in further studies.

Life span and reproductive cost explain interspecific variation in the optimal onset of reproduction.

Fitness can be profoundly influenced by the age at first reproduction (AFR), but to date the AFR-fitness relationship only has been investigated intraspecifically. Here, we investigated the relationship between AFR and average lifetime reproductive success (LRS) across 34 bird species. We assessed differences in the deviation of the Optimal AFR (i.e., the species-specific AFR associated with the highest LRS) from the age at sexual maturity, considering potential effects of life history as well as social and ecological factors. Most individuals adopted the species-specific Optimal AFR and both the mean and Optimal AFR of species correlated positively with life span. Interspecific deviations of the Optimal AFR were associated with indices reflecting a change in LRS or survival as a function of AFR: a delayed AFR was beneficial in species where early AFR was associated with a decrease in subsequent survival or reproductive output. Overall, our results suggest that a delayed onset of reproduction beyond maturity is an optimal strategy explained by a long life span and costs of early reproduction. By providing the first empirical confirmations of key predictions of life-history theory across species, this study contributes to a better understanding of life-history evolution.

Optimal slopes and speeds in uphill ski mountaineering: a laboratory study.

The purpose of this study was to estimate the energy cost of linear (EC) and vertical displacement (ECvert), mechanical efficiency and main stride parameters during simulated ski mountaineering at different speeds and gradients, to identify an optimal speed and gradient that maximizes performance. 12 subjects roller skied on a treadmill at three different inclines (10, 17 and 24 %) at three different speeds (approximately 70, 80 and 85 % of estimated peak heart rate). Energy expenditure was calculated by indirect calorimetry, while biomechanical parameters were measured with an inertial sensor-based system. At 10 % there was no significant change with speed in EC, ECvert and mechanical efficiency. At 17 and 24 % the fastest speed was significantly more economical. There was a significant effect of gradient on EC, ECvert and mechanical efficiency. The most economical gradient was the steepest one. There was a significant increase of stride frequency with speed. At steep gradients only, relative thrust phase duration decreased significantly, while stride length increased significantly with speed. There was a significant effect of gradient on stride length (decrease with steepness) and relative thrust phase duration (increase with steepness). A combination of a decreased relative thrust phase duration with increased stride length and frequency decreases ECvert. To minimize the energy expenditure to reach the top of a mountain and to optimize performance, ski-mountaineers should choose a steep gradient (~24 %) and, provided they possess sufficient metabolic scope, combine it with a fast speed (~6 km h(-1)).

Analyse de réseau piéton et gestion scolaire: sinuosité, centricité et transport optimal régularisé

Que ce soit d'un point de vue, urbanistique, social, ou encore de la gouvernance, l'évolution des villes est un défi majeur de nos sociétés contemporaines. En offrant la possibilité d'analyser des configurations spatiales et sociales existantes ou en tentant de simuler celles à venir, les systèmes d'information géographique sont devenus incontournables dans la gestion et dans la planification urbaine. En cinq ans la population de la ville de Lausanne est passée de 134'700 à 140'570 habitants, alors que les effectifs de l'école publique ont crû de 12'200 à 13'500 élèves. Cet accroissement démographique associé à un vaste processus d'harmonisation de la scolarité obligatoire en Suisse ont amené le Service des écoles à mettre en place et à développer en collaboration avec l'université de Lausanne des solutions SIG à même de répondre à différentes problématiques spatiales. Établies en 1989, les limites des établissements scolaires (bassins de recrutement) ont dû être redéfinies afin de les réadapter aux réalités d'un paysage urbain et politique en pleine mutation. Dans un contexte de mobilité et de durabilité, un système d'attribution de subventions pour les transports publics basé sur la distance domicile-école et sur l'âge des écoliers, a été conçu. La réalisation de ces projets a nécessité la construction de bases de données géographiques ainsi que l'élaboration de nouvelles méthodes d'analyses exposées dans ce travail. Cette thèse s'est ainsi faite selon une dialectique permanente entre recherches théoriques et nécessités pratiques. La première partie de ce travail porte sur l'analyse du réseau piéton de la ville. La morphologie du réseau est investiguée au travers d'approches multi-échelles du concept de centralité. La première conception, nommée sinuo-centralité ("straightness centrality"), stipule qu'être central c'est être relié aux autres en ligne droite. La deuxième, sans doute plus intuitive, est intitulée centricité ("closeness centrality") et exprime le fait qu'être central c'est être proche des autres (fig. 1, II). Les méthodes développées ont pour but d'évaluer la connectivité et la marchabilité du réseau, tout en suggérant de possibles améliorations (création de raccourcis piétons). Le troisième et dernier volet théorique expose et développe un algorithme de transport optimal régularisé. En minimisant la distance domicile-école et en respectant la taille des écoles, l'algorithme permet de réaliser des scénarios d'enclassement. L'implémentation des multiplicateurs de Lagrange offre une visualisation du "coût spatial" des infrastructures scolaires et des lieux de résidence des écoliers. La deuxième partie de cette thèse retrace les aspects principaux de trois projets réalisés dans le cadre de la gestion scolaire. À savoir : la conception d'un système d'attribution de subventions pour les transports publics, la redéfinition de la carte scolaire, ou encore la simulation des flux d'élèves se rendant à l'école à pied. *** May it be from an urbanistic, a social or from a governance point of view, the evolution of cities is a major challenge in our contemporary societies. By giving the opportunity to analyse spatial and social configurations or attempting to simulate future ones, geographic information systems cannot be overlooked in urban planning and management. In five years, the population of the city of Lausanne has grown from 134'700 to 140'570 inhabitants while the numbers in public schools have increased from 12'200 to 13'500 students. Associated to a considerable harmonisation process of compulsory schooling in Switzerland, this demographic rise has driven schooling services, in collaboration with the University of Lausanne, to set up and develop GIS capable of tackling various spatial issues. Established in 1989, the school districts had to be altered so that they might fit the reality of a continuously changing urban and political landscape. In a context of mobility and durability, an attribution system for public transport subventions based on the distance between residence and school and on the age of the students was designed. The implementation of these projects required the built of geographical databases as well as the elaboration of new analysis methods exposed in this thesis. The first part of this work focuses on the analysis of the city's pedestrian network. Its morphology is investigated through multi-scale approaches of the concept of centrality. The first conception, named the straightness centrality, stipulates that being central is being connected to the others in a straight line. The second, undoubtedly more intuitive, is called closeness centrality and expresses the fact that being central is being close to the others. The goal of the methods developed is to evaluate the connectivity and walkability of the network along with suggesting possible improvements (creation of pedestrian shortcuts).The third and final theoretical section exposes and develops an algorithm of regularised optimal transport. By minimising home to school distances and by respecting school capacity, the algorithm enables the production of student allocation scheme. The implementation of the Lagrange multipliers offers a visualisation of the spatial cost associated to the schooling infrastructures and to the student home locations. The second part of this thesis recounts the principal aspects of three projects fulfilled in the context of school management. It focuses namely on the built of an attribution system for public transport subventions, a school redistricting process and on simulating student pedestrian flows.