246 resultados para LIKELIHOOD METHODS


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BACKGROUND: By analyzing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pol sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), we explored whether the prevalence of non-B subtypes reflects domestic transmission or migration patterns. METHODS: Swiss non-B sequences and sequences collected abroad were pooled to construct maximum likelihood trees, which were analyzed for Swiss-specific subepidemics, (subtrees including ≥80% Swiss sequences, bootstrap >70%; macroscale analysis) or evidence for domestic transmission (sequence pairs with genetic distance <1.5%, bootstrap ≥98%; microscale analysis). RESULTS: Of 8287 SHCS participants, 1732 (21%) were infected with non-B subtypes, of which A (n = 328), C (n = 272), CRF01_AE (n = 258), and CRF02_AG (n = 285) were studied further. The macroscale analysis revealed that 21% (A), 16% (C), 24% (CRF01_AE), and 28% (CRF02_AG) belonged to Swiss-specific subepidemics. The microscale analysis identified 26 possible transmission pairs: 3 (12%) including only homosexual Swiss men of white ethnicity; 3 (12%) including homosexual white men from Switzerland and partners from foreign countries; and 10 (38%) involving heterosexual white Swiss men and females of different nationality and predominantly nonwhite ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Of all non-B infections diagnosed in Switzerland, <25% could be prevented by domestic interventions. Awareness should be raised among immigrants and Swiss individuals with partners from high prevalence countries to contain the spread of non-B subtypes.

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BACKGROUND: Our objective was to evaluate procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) as predictors of a pneumococcal etiology in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in hospitalized children. METHODS: Children requiring hospitalization for CAP were prospectively enrolled. The following indices were determined: antibodies against pneumococcal surface proteins (anti-PLY, pneumococcal histidine triad D, pneumococcal histidine triad E, LytB and pneumococcal choline-binding protein A), viral serology, nasopharyngeal cultures and polymerase chain reaction for 13 respiratory viruses, blood pneumococcal polymerase chain reaction, pneumococcal urinary antigen, PCT and CRP. Presumed pneumococcal CAP (P-CAP) was defined as a positive blood culture or polymerase chain reaction for Streptococcus pneumoniae or as a pneumococcal surface protein seroresponse (≥2-fold increase). RESULTS: Seventy-five patients were included from which 37 (49%) met the criteria of P-CAP. Elevated PCT and CRP values were strongly associated with P-CAP with odds ratios of 23 (95% confidence interval: 5-117) for PCT and 19 (95% confidence interval: 5-75) for CRP in multivariate analysis. The sensitivity was 94.4% for PCT (cutoff: 1.5 ng/mL) and 91.9% for CRP (cutoff: 100 mg/L). A value≤0.5 ng/mL of PCT ruled out P-CAP in >90% of cases (negative likelihood ratio: 0.08). Conversely, a PCT value≥1.5 ng/mL associated with a positive pneumococcal urinary antigen had a diagnostic probability for P-CAP of almost 80% (positive likelihood ratio: 4.59). CONCLUSIONS: PCT and CRP are reliable predictors of P-CAP. Low cutoff values of PCT allow identification of children at low risk of P-CAP. The association of elevated PCT or CRP with a positive pneumococcal urinary antigen is a strong predictor of P-CAP.

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Practical guidelines for monitoring and measuring compounds such as jasmonates, ketols, ketodi(tri)enes and hydroxy-fatty acids as well as detecting the presence of novel oxylipins are presented. Additionally, a protocol for the penetrant analysis of non-enzymatic lipid oxidation is described. Each of the methods, which employ gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, can be applied without specialist knowledge or recourse to the latest analytical instrumentation. Additional information on oxylipin quantification and novel protocols for preparing oxygen isotope-labelled internal standards are provided. Four developing areas of research are identified: (i) profiling of the unbound cellular pools of oxylipins; (ii) profiling of esterified oxylipins and/or monitoring of their release from parent lipids; (iii) monitoring of non-enzymatic lipid oxidation; (iv) analysis of unstable and reactive oxylipins. The methods and protocols presented herein are designed to give technical insights into the first three areas and to provide a platform from which to enter the fourth area.

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Traditional culture-dependent methods to quantify and identify airborne microorganisms are limited by factors such as short-duration sampling times and inability to count nonculturableor non-viable bacteria. Consequently, the quantitative assessment of bioaerosols is often underestimated. Use of the real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Q-PCR) to quantify bacteria in environmental samples presents an alternative method, which should overcome this problem. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a real-time Q-PCR assay as a simple and reliable way to quantify the airborne bacterial load within poultry houses and sewage treatment plants, in comparison with epifluorescencemicroscopy and culture-dependent methods. The estimates of bacterial load that we obtained from real-time PCR and epifluorescence methods, are comparable, however, our analysis of sewage treatment plants indicate these methods give values 270-290 fold greater than those obtained by the ''impaction on nutrient agar'' method. The culture-dependent method of air impaction on nutrient agar was also inadequate in poultry houses, as was the impinger-culture method, which gave a bacterial load estimate 32-fold lower than obtained by Q-PCR. Real-time quantitative PCR thus proves to be a reliable, discerning, and simple method that could be used to estimate airborne bacterial load in a broad variety of other environments expected to carry high numbers of airborne bacteria. [Authors]

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BACKGROUND: Protein-energy malnutrition is highly prevalent in aged populations. Associated clinical, economic, and social burden is important. A valid screening method that would be robust and precise, but also easy, simple, and rapid to apply, is essential for adequate therapeutic management. OBJECTIVES: To compare the interobserver variability of 2 methods measuring food intake: semiquantitative visual estimations made by nurses versus calorie measurements performed by dieticians on the basis of standardized color digital photographs of servings before and after consumption. DESIGN: Observational monocentric pilot study. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: A geriatric ward. The meals were randomly chosen from the meal tray. The choice was anonymous with respect to the patients who consumed them. MEASUREMENTS: The test method consisted of the estimation of calorie consumption by dieticians on the basis of standardized color digital photographs of servings before and after consumption. The reference method was based on direct visual estimations of the meals by nurses. Food intake was expressed in the form of a percentage of the serving consumed and calorie intake was then calculated by a dietician based on these percentages. The methods were applied with no previous training of the observers. Analysis of variance was performed to compare their interobserver variability. RESULTS: Of 15 meals consumed and initially examined, 6 were assessed with each method. Servings not consumed at all (0% consumption) or entirely consumed by the patient (100% consumption) were not included in the analysis so as to avoid systematic error. The digital photography method showed higher interobserver variability in calorie intake estimations. The difference between the compared methods was statistically significant (P < .03). CONCLUSIONS: Calorie intake measures for geriatric patients are more concordant when estimated in a semiquantitative way. Digital photography for food intake estimation without previous specific training of dieticians should not be considered as a reference method in geriatric settings, as it shows no advantages in terms of interobserver variability.

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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pazopanib has demonstrated clinical benefit in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and is generally well tolerated. However, transaminase elevations have commonly been observed. This 2-stage study sought to identify genetic determinants of alanine transaminase (ALT) elevations in pazopanib-treated white patients with RCC.¦METHODS: Data from two separate clinical studies were used to examine the association of genetic polymorphisms with maximum on-treatment ALT levels.¦RESULTS: Of 6852 polymorphisms in 282 candidate genes examined in an exploratory dataset of 115 patients, 92 polymorphisms in 40 genes were significantly associated with ALT elevation (p<0.01). Two markers (rs2858996 and rs707889) in the HFE gene, which are not yet known to be associated with hemochromatosis, showed evidence for replication. Because of multiple comparisons, there was a 12% likelihood the replication occurred by chance. These two markers demonstrated strong linkage disequilibrium (r(2)=0.99). In the combined dataset, median (25-75th percentile) maximum ALT values were 1.2 (0.7-1.9), 1.1 (0.8-2.5), and 5.4 (1.9-7.6)×ULN for rs2858996 GG (n=148), GT (n=82), and TT (n=1 2) genotypes, respectively. All 12 TT patients had a maximum ALT>ULN, and 8 (67%) had ALT≥3×ULN. The odds ratio (95% CI) for ALT≥3×ULN for TT genotype was 39.7 (2.2-703.7) compared with other genotypes. As a predictor of ALT≥3×ULN, the TT genotype had a negative predictive value of 0.83 and positive predictive value of 0.67. No TT patients developed liver failure.¦CONCLUSIONS: The rs2858996/rs707889 polymorphisms in the HFE gene may be associated with reversible ALT elevation in pazo-panib-treated patients with RCC.

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BACKGROUND: Finding genes that are differentially expressed between conditions is an integral part of understanding the molecular basis of phenotypic variation. In the past decades, DNA microarrays have been used extensively to quantify the abundance of mRNA corresponding to different genes, and more recently high-throughput sequencing of cDNA (RNA-seq) has emerged as a powerful competitor. As the cost of sequencing decreases, it is conceivable that the use of RNA-seq for differential expression analysis will increase rapidly. To exploit the possibilities and address the challenges posed by this relatively new type of data, a number of software packages have been developed especially for differential expression analysis of RNA-seq data. RESULTS: We conducted an extensive comparison of eleven methods for differential expression analysis of RNA-seq data. All methods are freely available within the R framework and take as input a matrix of counts, i.e. the number of reads mapping to each genomic feature of interest in each of a number of samples. We evaluate the methods based on both simulated data and real RNA-seq data. CONCLUSIONS: Very small sample sizes, which are still common in RNA-seq experiments, impose problems for all evaluated methods and any results obtained under such conditions should be interpreted with caution. For larger sample sizes, the methods combining a variance-stabilizing transformation with the 'limma' method for differential expression analysis perform well under many different conditions, as does the nonparametric SAMseq method.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Lactate is central for the regulation of brain metabolism and is an alternative substrate to glucose after injury. Brain lactate metabolism in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage has not been fully elucidated. METHODS: Thirty-one subarachnoid hemorrhage patients monitored with cerebral microdialysis (CMD) and brain oxygen (PbtO(2)) were studied. Samples with elevated CMD lactate (>4 mmol/L) were matched to PbtO(2) and CMD pyruvate and categorized as hypoxic (PbtO(2) <20 mm Hg) versus nonhypoxic and hyperglycolytic (CMD pyruvate >119 μmol/L) versus nonhyperglycolytic. RESULTS: Median per patient samples with elevated CMD lactate was 54% (interquartile range, 11%-80%). Lactate elevations were more often attributable to cerebral hyperglycolysis (78%; interquartile range, 5%-98%) than brain hypoxia (11%; interquartile range, 4%-75%). Mortality was associated with increased percentage of samples with elevated lactate and brain hypoxia (28% [interquartile range 9%-95%] in nonsurvivors versus 9% [interquartile range 3%-17%] in survivors; P=0.02) and lower percentage of elevated lactate and cerebral hyperglycolysis (13% [interquartile range, 1%-87%] versus 88% [interquartile range, 27%-99%]; P=0.07). Cerebral hyperglycolytic lactate production predicted good 6-month outcome (odds ratio for modified Rankin Scale score, 0-3 1.49; CI, 1.08-2.05; P=0.016), whereas increased lactate with brain hypoxia was associated with a reduced likelihood of good outcome (OR, 0.78; CI, 0.59-1.03; P=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Brain lactate is frequently elevated in subarachnoid hemorrhage patients, predominantly because of hyperglycolysis rather than hypoxia. A pattern of increased cerebral hyperglycolytic lactate was associated with good long-term recovery. Our data suggest that lactate may be used as an aerobic substrate by the injured human brain.

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This is the report of the first workshop on Incorporating In Vitro Alternative Methods for Developmental Neurotoxicity (DNT) Testing into International Hazard and Risk Assessment Strategies, held in Ispra, Italy, on 19-21 April 2005. The workshop was hosted by the European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM) and jointly organized by ECVAM, the European Chemical Industry Council, and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing. The primary aim of the workshop was to identify and catalog potential methods that could be used to assess how data from in vitro alternative methods could help to predict and identify DNT hazards. Working groups focused on two different aspects: a) details on the science available in the field of DNT, including discussions on the models available to capture the critical DNT mechanisms and processes, and b) policy and strategy aspects to assess the integration of alternative methods in a regulatory framework. This report summarizes these discussions and details the recommendations and priorities for future work.

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OBJECTIVE: Barbiturate-induced coma can be used in patients to treat intractable intracranial hypertension when other therapies, such as osmotic therapy and sedation, have failed. Despite control of intracranial pressure, cerebral infarction may still occur in some patients, and the effect of barbiturates on outcome remains uncertain. In this study, we examined the relationship between barbiturate infusion and brain tissue oxygen (PbtO2). METHODS: Ten volume-resuscitated brain-injured patients who were treated with pentobarbital infusion for intracranial hypertension and underwent PbtO2 monitoring were studied in a neurosurgical intensive care unit at a university-based Level I trauma center. PbtO2, intracranial pressure (ICP), mean arterial pressure, cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), and brain temperature were continuously monitored and compared in settings in which barbiturates were or were not administered. RESULTS: Data were available from 1595 hours of PbtO2 monitoring. When pentobarbital administration began, the mean ICP, CPP, and PbtO2 were 18 +/- 10, 72 +/- 18, and 28 +/- 12 mm Hg, respectively. During the 3 hours before barbiturate infusion, the maximum ICP was 24 +/- 13 mm Hg and the minimum CPP was 65 +/- 20 mm Hg. In the majority of patients (70%), we observed an increase in PbtO2 associated with pentobarbital infusion. Within this group, logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a higher likelihood of compromised brain oxygen (PbtO2 < 20 mm Hg) was associated with a decrease in pentobarbital dose after controlling for ICP and other physiological parameters (P < 0.001). In the remaining 3 patients, pentobarbital was associated with lower PbtO2 levels. These patients had higher ICP, lower CPP, and later initiation of barbiturates compared with patients whose PbtO2 increased. CONCLUSION: Our preliminary findings suggest that pentobarbital administered for intractable intracranial hypertension is associated with a significant and independent increase in PbtO2 in the majority of patients. However, in some patients with more compromised brain physiology, pentobarbital may have a negative effect on PbtO2, particularly if administered late. Larger studies are needed to examine the relationship between barbiturates and cerebral oxygenation in brain-injured patients with refractory intracranial hypertension and to determine whether PbtO2 responses can help guide therapy.

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BACKGROUND: The aim of this paper was to delineate the impact of gender on premorbid history, onset, and 18 month outcomes of first episode psychotic mania (FEPM) patients. METHODS: Medical file audit assessment of 118 (male = 71; female = 47) patients with FEPM aged 15 to 29 years was undertaken on clinical and functional measures. RESULTS: Males with FEPM had increased likelihood of substance use (OR = 13.41, p <.001) and forensic issues (OR = 4.71, p = .008), whereas females were more likely to have history of sexual abuse trauma (OR = 7.12, p = .001). At service entry, males were more likely to be using substances, especially cannabis (OR = 2.15, p = .047), had more severe illness (OR = 1.72, p = .037), and poorer functioning (OR = 0.96, p = .045). During treatment males were more likely to decrease substance use (OR = 5.34, p = .008) and were more likely to be living with family (OR = 4.30, p = .009). There were no gender differences in age of onset, psychopathology or functioning at discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Clinically meaningful gender differences in FEPM were driven by risk factors possibly associated with poor outcome. For males, substance use might be associated with poorer clinical presentation and functioning. In females with FEPM, the impact of sexual trauma on illness course warrants further consideration.

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An enormous burst of interest in the public health burden from chronic disease in Africa has emerged as a consequence of efforts to estimate global population health. Detailed estimates are now published for Africa as a whole and each country on the continent. These data have formed the basis for warnings about sharp increases in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the coming decades. In this essay we briefly examine the trajectory of social development on the continent and its consequences for the epidemiology of CVD and potential control strategies. Since full vital registration has only been implemented in segments of South Africa and the island nations of Seychelles and Mauritius - formally part of WHO-AFRO - mortality data are extremely limited. Numerous sample surveys have been conducted but they often lack standardization or objective measures of health status. Trend data are even less informative. However, using the best quality data available, age-standardized trends in CVD are downward, and in the case of stroke, sharply so. While acknowledging that the extremely limited available data cannot be used as the basis for inference to the continent, we raise the concern that general estimates based on imputation to fill in the missing mortality tables may be even more misleading. No immediate remedies to this problem can be identified, however bilateral collaborative efforts to strength local educational institutions and governmental agencies rank as the highest priority for near term development.

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Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.