Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

Estimation of inelastic seismic material properties of a surgical sea-bed from multi-component marine seismic data

To date, state-of-the-art seismic material parameter estimates from multi-component sea-bed seismic data are based on the assumption that the sea-bed consists of a fully elastic half-space. In reality, however, the shallow sea-bed generally consists of soft, unconsolidated sediments that are characterized by strong to very strong seismic attenuation. To explore the potential implications, we apply a state-of-the-art elastic decomposition algorithm to synthetic data for a range of canonical sea-bed models consisting of a viscoelastic half-space of varying attenuation. We find that in the presence of strong seismic attenuation, as quantified by Q-values of 10 or less, significant errors arise in the conventional elastic estimation of seismic properties. Tests on synthetic data indicate that these errors can be largely avoided by accounting for the inherent attenuation of the seafloor when estimating the seismic parameters. This can be achieved by replacing the real-valued expressions for the elastic moduli in the governing equations in the parameter estimation by their complex-valued viscoelastic equivalents. The practical application of our parameter procedure yields realistic estimates of the elastic seismic material properties of the shallow sea-bed, while the corresponding Q-estimates seem to be biased towards too low values, particularly for S-waves. Given that the estimation of inelastic material parameters is notoriously difficult, particularly in the immediate vicinity of the sea-bed, this is expected to be of interest and importance for civil and ocean engineering purposes.

Anti-Nogo-A Antibody Treatment Promotes Recovery of Manual Dexterity after Unilateral Cervical Lesion in Adult Primates--re-examination and Extension of Behavioral Data.

In rodents and nonhuman primates subjected to spinal cord lesion, neutralizing the neurite growth inhibitor Nogo-A has been shown to promote regenerative axonal sprouting and functional recovery. The goal of the present report was to re-examine the data on the recovery of the primate manual dexterity using refined behavioral analyses and further statistical assessments, representing secondary outcome measures from the same manual dexterity test. Thirteen adult monkeys were studied; seven received an anti-Nogo-A antibody whereas a control antibody was infused into the other monkeys. Monkeys were trained to perform the modified Brinkman board task requiring opposition of index finger and thumb to grasp food pellets placed in vertically and horizontally oriented slots. Two parameters were quantified before and following spinal cord injury: (i) the standard 'score' as defined by the number of pellets retrieved within 30 s from the two types of slots; (ii) the newly introduced 'contact time' as defined by the duration of digit contact with the food pellet before successful retrieval. After lesion the hand was severely impaired in all monkeys; this was followed by progressive functional recovery. Remarkably, anti-Nogo-A antibody-treated monkeys recovered faster and significantly better than control antibody-treated monkeys, considering both the score for vertical and horizontal slots (Mann-Whitney test: P = 0.05 and 0.035, respectively) and the contact time (P = 0.008 and 0.005, respectively). Detailed analysis of the lesions excluded the possibility that this conclusion may have been caused by differences in lesion properties between the two groups of monkeys.