Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

No evidence for a causal link between uric acid and type 2 diabetes: a Mendelian randomisation approach.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Epidemiological and experimental evidence suggests that uric acid has a role in the aetiology of type 2 diabetes. Using a Mendelian randomisation approach, we investigated whether there is evidence for a causal role of serum uric acid for development of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We examined the associations of serum-uric-acid-raising alleles of eight common variants recently identified in genome-wide association studies and summarised this in a genetic score with type 2 diabetes in case-control studies including 7,504 diabetes patients and 8,560 non-diabetic controls. We compared the observed effect size to that expected based on: (1) the association between the genetic score and uric acid levels in non-diabetic controls; and (2) the meta-analysed uric acid level to diabetes association. RESULTS: The genetic score showed a linear association with uric acid levels, with a difference of 12.2 μmol/l (95% CI 9.3, 15.1) by score tertile. No significant associations were observed between the genetic score and potential confounders. No association was observed between the genetic score and type 2 diabetes with an OR of 0.99 (95% CI 0.94, 1.04) per score tertile, significantly different (p = 0.046) from that expected (1.04 [95% CI 1.03, 1.05]) based on the observed uric acid difference by score tertile and the uric acid to diabetes association of 1.21 (95% CI 1.14, 1.29) per 60 μmol/l. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our results do not support a causal role of serum uric acid for the development of type 2 diabetes and limit the expectation that uric-acid-lowering drugs will be effective in the prevention of type 2 diabetes.

Experimental evidence that adult antipredator behaviour is heritable and not influenced by behavioural copying in a wild bird.

Knowledge of the relative importance of genetics and behavioural copying is crucial to appraise the evolvability of behavioural consistencies. Yet, genetic and non-genetic factors are often deeply intertwined, and experiments are required to address this issue. We investigated the sources of variation of adult antipredator behaviour in the Alpine swift (Apus melba) by making use of long-term behavioural observations on parents and cross-fostered offspring. By applying an 'animal model' approach to observational data, we show that antipredator behaviour of adult Alpine swifts was significantly repeatable over lifetime (r = 0.273) and heritable (h(2) = 0.146). Regression models also show that antipredator behaviours differed between colonies and sexes (females were more tame), and varied with the hour and year of capture. By applying a parent-offspring regression approach to 59 offspring that were exchanged as eggs or hatchlings between pairs of nests, we demonstrate that offspring behaved like their biological parents rather than like their foster parents when they were adults themselves. Those findings provide strong evidence that antipredator behaviour of adult Alpine swifts is shaped by genetics and/or pre-hatching maternal effects taking place at conception but not by behavioural copying.

Role of the superior parietal lobules in letter-identity processing within strings: FMRI evidence from skilled and dyslexic readers.

Traditionally, the ventral occipito-temporal (vOT) area, but not the superior parietal lobules (SPLs), is thought as belonging to the neural system of visual word recognition. However, some dyslexic children who exhibit a visual attention span disorder - i.e. poor multi-element parallel processing - further show reduced SPLs activation when engaged in visual multi-element categorization tasks. We investigated whether these parietal regions further contribute to letter-identity processing within strings. Adult skilled readers and dyslexic participants with a visual attention span disorder were administered a letter-string comparison task under fMRI. Dyslexic adults were less accurate than skilled readers to detect letter identity substitutions within strings. In skilled readers, letter identity differs related to enhanced activation of the left vOT. However, specific neural responses were further found in the superior and inferior parietal regions, including the SPLs bilaterally. Two brain regions that are specifically related to substituted letter detection, the left SPL and the left vOT, were less activated in dyslexic participants. These findings suggest that the left SPL, like the left vOT, may contribute to letter string processing.

A large deletion in the adRP gene PRPF31: evidence that haploinsufficiency is the cause of disease.

PURPOSE: To report a large deletion that encompasses more than 90% of PRPF31 gene and two other neighboring genes in their entirety in an adRP pedigree that appears to show only the typical clinical features of retinitis pigmentosa. METHODS: To identify PRPF31 mutation in a dominant RP family (ADRP2) previously linked to the RP11 locus, the 14 exons of PRPF31 were screened for mutations by direct sequencing. To investigate the possibility of a large deletion, microsatellite markers near PRPF31 gene were analyzed by non-denaturing PAGE. RESULTS: Initial screening of PRPF31 gene in the ADRP2 family did not reveal an obvious mutation. A large deletion was however suspected due to lack of heterozygosity for nearly all PRPF31 intragenic single nucleotide polymorphysm (SNPs). In order to estimate the size of the deletion, SNPs and microsatellite markers spanning and flanking PRPF31 were analyzed in the entire ADRP2 family. Haplotype analysis with the above markers suggested a deletion of approximately 30 kb that included the putative promoter region of a novel gene OSCAR, the entire genomic content of genes NDUFA3, TFPT and more than 90% of PRPF31 gene. Sequence analysis of the region flanking the potential deletion showed a high presence of Alu elements implicating Alu mediated recombination as the mechanism responsible for this event. CONCLUSIONS: This mutation provides evidence that haploinsufficiency rather than aberrant function of mutated proteins is the cause of disease in these adRP patients with mutations in PRPF31 gene.

Androgenetic alopecia: identification of four genetic risk loci and evidence for the contribution of WNT signaling to its etiology.

The pathogenesis of androgenetic alopecia (AGA, male-pattern baldness) is driven by androgens, and genetic predisposition is the major prerequisite. Candidate gene and genome-wide association studies have reported that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at eight different genomic loci are associated with AGA development. However, a significant fraction of the overall heritable risk still awaits identification. Furthermore, the understanding of the pathophysiology of AGA is incomplete, and each newly associated locus may provide novel insights into contributing biological pathways. The aim of this study was to identify unknown AGA risk loci by replicating SNPs at the 12 genomic loci that showed suggestive association (5 × 10(-8)<P<10(-5)) with AGA in a recent meta-analysis. We analyzed a replication set comprising 2,759 cases and 2,661 controls of European descent to confirm the association with AGA at these loci. Combined analysis of the replication and the meta-analysis data identified four genome-wide significant risk loci for AGA on chromosomes 2q35, 3q25.1, 5q33.3, and 12p12.1. The strongest association signal was obtained for rs7349332 (P=3.55 × 10(-15)) on chr2q35, which is located intronically in WNT10A. Expression studies in human hair follicle tissue suggest that WNT10A has a functional role in AGA etiology. Thus, our study provides genetic evidence supporting an involvement of WNT signaling in AGA development.

New evidence for a thermogenic defect in human obesity.

A reduced thermogenic response to food ingestion may contribute to the dynamic phase of weight gain in obesity. A defect in diet-induced thermogenesis has been reported in about one third of an unselected group of obese women. After inducing weight loss with a hypocaloric diet, the thermogenic defect does not disappear. Since basal metabolic rate decreases with weight loss, the overall postprandial energy expenditure of 'post-obese' individuals can be lower than that of lean controls. As a consequence, post-obese subjects must reset energy intake to a lower level than the previous maintenance food consumption in order to avoid relapse of body weight gain.

New evidence for the social embeddedness of infants' early triangular capacities.

Infants appear to be active participants in complex interactional sequences with their parents far earlier than previously theorized. In this report, we document the capacity of 3-month-old infants to share attention with two partners (mothers and fathers) simultaneously, and trace links between this capacity and early family group-level dynamics. During comprehensive evaluations of the family's emergent coparenting alliance completed in 113 homes, we charted infants' eye gaze patterns during two different mother-father-infant assessment paradigms. Triangular capacities (operationalized as the frequency of rapid multishift gaze transitions between parents during interactions) were stable across interaction context. Infants exhibiting more advanced triangular capacities belonged to families showing evidence of better coparental adjustment. Theoretical and practice implications of these findings are discussed.

Blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol lowering for prevention of strokes and cognitive decline: a review of available trial evidence.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: It is well established by a large number of randomized controlled trials that lowering blood pressure (BP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) by drugs are powerful means to reduce stroke incidence, but the optimal BP and LDL-C levels to be achieved are largely uncertain. Concerning BP targets, two hypotheses are being confronted: first, the lower the BP, the better the treatment outcome, and second, the hypothesis that too low BP values are accompanied by a lower benefit and even higher risk. It is also unknown whether BP lowering and LDL-C lowering have additive beneficial effects for the primary and secondary prevention of stroke, and whether these treatments can prevent cognitive decline after stroke. RESULTS: A review of existing data from randomized controlled trials confirms that solid evidence on optimal BP and LDL-C targets is missing, possible interactions between BP and LDL-C lowering treatments have never been directly investigated, and evidence in favour of a beneficial effect of BP or LDL-C lowering on cognitive decline is, at best, very weak. CONCLUSION: A new, large randomized controlled trial is needed to determine the optimal level of BP and LDL-C for the prevention of recurrent stroke and cognitive decline.

Nd-, O-, and H-isotopic evidence for complex, closed-system fluid evolution of the peralkaline Ilimaussaq intrusion, South Greenland

Relatively homogeneous oxygen isotope compositions of amphibole, clinopyroxene, and olivine separates (+5.2 to +5.7parts per thousand relative to VSMOW) and neodymium isotope compositions (epsilon(Nd(T)) = -0.9 to -1.8 for primary magmatic minerals and epsilon(Nd(T)) = -0.1 and -0.5 for mineral separates from late-stage pegmatites and hydrothermal veins) from the alkaline to agpaitic llimaussaq intrusion, South Greenland, indicate a closed system evolution of this igneous complex and support a mantle derivation of the magma. In contrast to the homogeneous oxygen and neodymium isotopic data, deltaD values for hand-picked amphibole separates vary between -92 and -232parts per thousand and are among the most deuterium-depleted values known from igneous amphiboles. The calculated fluid phase coexisting with these amphiboles has a homogeneous oxygen isotopic composition within the normal range of magmatic waters, but extremely heterogeneous and low D/H ratios, implying a decoupling of the oxygen- and hydrogen isotope systems. Of the several possibilities that can account for such unusually low deltaD values in amphiboles (e.g., late-stage hydrothermal exchange with meteoric water, extensive magmatic degassing, contamination with organic matter, and/or effects of Fe-content and pressure on amphibole-water fractionation) the most likely explanation for the range in deltaD values is that the amphiboles have been influenced by secondary interaction and reequilibration with D-depleted fluids obtained through late-magmatic oxidation of internally generated CH(4) and/or H(2). This interpretation is consistent with the known occurrence of abundant magmatic CH(4) in the Ilimaussaq rocks and with previous studies on the isotopic compositions of the rocks and fluids. Copyright (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd.

Metabolic compartmentalization in the human cortex and hippocampus: evidence for a cell- and region-specific localization of lactate dehydrogenase 5 and pyruvate dehydrogenase.

BACKGROUND: For a long time now, glucose has been thought to be the main, if not the sole substrate for brain energy metabolism. Recent data nevertheless suggest that other molecules, such as monocarboxylates (lactate and pyruvate mainly) could be suitable substrates. Although monocarboxylates poorly cross the blood brain barrier (BBB), such substrates could replace glucose if produced locally.The two key enzymatiques systems required for the production of these monocarboxylates are lactate dehydrogenase (LDH; EC1.1.1.27) that catalyses the interconversion of lactate and pyruvate and the pyruvate dehydrogenase complex that irreversibly funnels pyruvate towards the mitochondrial TCA and oxydative phosphorylation. RESULTS: In this article, we show, with monoclonal antibodies applied to post-mortem human brain tissues, that the typically glycolytic isoenzyme of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH-5; also called LDHA or LDHM) is selectively present in astrocytes, and not in neurons, whereas pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) is mainly detected in neurons and barely in astrocytes. At the regional level, the distribution of the LDH-5 immunoreactive astrocytes is laminar and corresponds to regions of maximal 2-deoxyglucose uptake in the occipital cortex and hippocampus. In hippocampus, we observed that the distribution of the oxidative enzyme PDH was enriched in the neurons of the stratum pyramidale and stratum granulosum of CA1 through CA4, whereas the glycolytic enzyme LDH-5 was enriched in astrocytes of the stratum moleculare, the alveus and the white matter, revealing not only cellular, but also regional, selective distributions. The fact that LDH-5 immunoreactivity was high in astrocytes and occurred in regions where the highest uptake of 2-deoxyglucose was observed suggests that glucose uptake followed by lactate production may principally occur in these regions. CONCLUSION: These observations reveal a metabolic segregation, not only at the cellular but also at the regional level, that support the notion of metabolic compartmentalization between astrocytes and neurons, whereby lactate produced by astrocytes could be oxidized by neurons.