Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Using Pareto optimality to explore the topology and dynamics of the human connectome.

Graph theory has provided a key mathematical framework to analyse the architecture of human brain networks. This architecture embodies an inherently complex relationship between connection topology, the spatial arrangement of network elements, and the resulting network cost and functional performance. An exploration of these interacting factors and driving forces may reveal salient network features that are critically important for shaping and constraining the brain's topological organization and its evolvability. Several studies have pointed to an economic balance between network cost and network efficiency with networks organized in an 'economical' small-world favouring high communication efficiency at a low wiring cost. In this study, we define and explore a network morphospace in order to characterize different aspects of communication efficiency in human brain networks. Using a multi-objective evolutionary approach that approximates a Pareto-optimal set within the morphospace, we investigate the capacity of anatomical brain networks to evolve towards topologies that exhibit optimal information processing features while preserving network cost. This approach allows us to investigate network topologies that emerge under specific selection pressures, thus providing some insight into the selectional forces that may have shaped the network architecture of existing human brains.

Brain dynamics of meal size selection in humans.

Although neuroimaging research has evidenced specific responses to visual food stimuli based on their nutritional quality (e.g., energy density, fat content), brain processes underlying portion size selection remain largely unexplored. We identified spatio-temporal brain dynamics in response to meal images varying in portion size during a task of ideal portion selection for prospective lunch intake and expected satiety. Brain responses to meal portions judged by the participants as 'too small', 'ideal' and 'too big' were measured by means of electro-encephalographic (EEG) recordings in 21 normal-weight women. During an early stage of meal viewing (105-145ms), data showed an incremental increase of the head-surface global electric field strength (quantified via global field power; GFP) as portion judgments ranged from 'too small' to 'too big'. Estimations of neural source activity revealed that brain regions underlying this effect were located in the insula, middle frontal gyrus and middle temporal gyrus, and are similar to those reported in previous studies investigating responses to changes in food nutritional content. In contrast, during a later stage (230-270ms), GFP was maximal for the 'ideal' relative to the 'non-ideal' portion sizes. Greater neural source activity to 'ideal' vs. 'non-ideal' portion sizes was observed in the inferior parietal lobule, superior temporal gyrus and mid-posterior cingulate gyrus. Collectively, our results provide evidence that several brain regions involved in attention and adaptive behavior track 'ideal' meal portion sizes as early as 230ms during visual encounter. That is, responses do not show an increase paralleling the amount of food viewed (and, in extension, the amount of reward), but are shaped by regulatory mechanisms.

Analysis of flow dynamics in right ventricular outflow tract.

BACKGROUND: The mechanism behind early graft failure after right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) reconstruction is not fully understood. Our aim was to establish a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of RVOT to investigate the hemodynamic conditions that may trigger the development of intimal hyperplasia and arteriosclerosis. METHODS: Pressure, flow, and diameter at the RVOT, pulmonary artery (PA), bifurcation of the PA, and left and right PAs were measured in 10 normal pigs with a mean weight of 24.8 ± 0.78 kg. Data obtained from the experimental scenario were used for CFD simulation of pressure, flow, and shear stress profile from the RVOT to the left and right PAs. RESULTS: Using experimental data, a CFD model was obtained for 2.0 and 2.5-L/min pulsatile inflow profiles. In both velocity profiles, time and space averaged in the low-shear stress profile range from 0-6.0 Pa at the pulmonary trunk, its bifurcation, and at the openings of both PAs. These low-shear stress areas were accompanied to high-pressure regions 14.0-20.0 mm Hg (1866.2-2666 Pa). Flow analysis revealed a turbulent flow at the PA bifurcation and ostia of both PAs. CONCLUSIONS: Identified local low-shear stress, high pressure, and turbulent flow correspond to a well-defined trigger pattern for the development of intimal hyperplasia and arteriosclerosis. As such, this real-time three-dimensional CFD model may in the future serve as a tool for the planning of RVOT reconstruction, its analysis, and prediction of outcome.

Cooperative and Competitive Spreading Dynamics on the Human Connectome.

Increasingly detailed data on the network topology of neural circuits create a need for theoretical principles that explain how these networks shape neural communication. Here we use a model of cascade spreading to reveal architectural features of human brain networks that facilitate spreading. Using an anatomical brain network derived from high-resolution diffusion spectrum imaging (DSI), we investigate scenarios where perturbations initiated at seed nodes result in global cascades that interact either cooperatively or competitively. We find that hub regions and a backbone of pathways facilitate early spreading, while the shortest path structure of the connectome enables cooperative effects, accelerating the spread of cascades. Finally, competing cascades become integrated by converging on polysensory associative areas. These findings show that the organizational principles of brain networks shape global communication and facilitate integrative function.

The dynamics of coexistence: habitat sharing versus segregation patterns among three sympatric montane vipers

Contact zones of closely related and ecologically similar species constitute rare opportunities to study the evolutionary consequences of past speciation processes. They represent natural laboratories in which strong competition could lead to the exclusion of one species, or the various species may switch into distinct ecological niches. Alternatively, if reproductive isolation has not yet been achieved, they may hybridize. We elucidate the degree of taxon integrity by comparing genetics and habitat use of three similar-sized congeneric viper species, Vipera ammodytes, Viperaaspis, and Viperaberus, of Nadiza Valley in western Slovenia. No hybridization was detected for either mitochondrial or nuclear genomes. Similarly, external intermediacy by a single prestudy viper (probably V.ammodytesxV. aspis) indicates that hybridization occasionally occurs, but should be very rare. Populations of the three related viperids are partially allopatric in Nadiza Valley, but they also coexist in a narrow contact zone in the montane grassland along the south-exposed slope of Mount Stol (1673m a.s.l.). Here, the three species that occupy areas in or near patches of rocky microhabitats (e.g. stone piles, slides, and walls) live in syntopy. However, fine-scale measurements of structural components show partial habitat segregation, in which V.berus becomes more dominant at elevations above 1400m and occupies mostly the mountain ridge and north-exposed slopes of Mount Stol, V.aspis occurs below 1300m and is the only species to inhabit stoneless patches of grass and bushes around 1000m and lower, and V.ammodytes occurs at all elevations up to 1500m, but is restricted to a rocky microhabitat. We suggest that a high degree of microstructure divergence, slightly different environmental niches, and a generally favourable habitat for all three viper species, keep the pressure for mis-mating and hybridization low, although mechanisms such as reduced hybrid inferiority and temporal mating segregation cannot yet be excluded.

Evolutionary dynamics of collective action in spatially structured populations.

Many models proposed to study the evolution of collective action rely on a formalism that represents social interactions as n-player games between individuals adopting discrete actions such as cooperate and defect. Despite the importance of spatial structure in biological collective action, the analysis of n-player games games in spatially structured populations has so far proved elusive. We address this problem by considering mixed strategies and by integrating discrete-action n-player games into the direct fitness approach of social evolution theory. This allows to conveniently identify convergence stable strategies and to capture the effect of population structure by a single structure coefficient, namely, the pairwise (scaled) relatedness among interacting individuals. As an application, we use our mathematical framework to investigate collective action problems associated with the provision of three different kinds of collective goods, paradigmatic of a vast array of helping traits in nature: "public goods" (both providers and shirkers can use the good, e.g., alarm calls), "club goods" (only providers can use the good, e.g., participation in collective hunting), and "charity goods" (only shirkers can use the good, e.g., altruistic sacrifice). We show that relatedness promotes the evolution of collective action in different ways depending on the kind of collective good and its economies of scale. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for relatedness, the kind of collective good, and the economies of scale in theoretical and empirical studies of the evolution of collective action.

Fluid dynamics simulation of right ventricular outflow tract oversizing.

OBJECTIVES: Repair of the right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) in paediatric cardiac surgery remains challenging due to the high reoperation rate. Intimal hyperplasia and consequent arteriosclerosis is one of the most important limitation factors for graft durability. Since local shear stress and pressure are predictive elements for intimal hyperplasia and wall degeneration, we sought to determine in an oversized 12-mm RVOT model, with computed fluid dynamics simulation, the local haemodynamical factors that may explain intimal hyperplasia. This was done with the aim of identifying the optimal degree of oversizing for a 12-mm native RVOT. METHODS: Twenty domestic pigs, with a weight of 24.6 ± 0.89 kg and a native RVOT diameter of 12 ± 1.7 mm, had valve conduits of 12, 16, 18 and 20 mm implanted. Pressure and flow were measured at 75, 100 and 125% of normal flow at RVOT at the pulmonary artery, pulmonary artery bifurcation and at the left and right pulmonary arteries. Three-dimensional computed fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation in all four geometries in all flow modalities was performed. Local shear stress and pressure conditions were investigated. RESULTS: Corresponding to 75, 100 and 125% of steady-state flow, three inlet velocity profiles were obtained, 0.2, 0.29 and 0.36 m/s, respectively. At inflow velocity profiles, low shear stress areas, ranged from 0 to 2 Pa, combined with high-pressure areas ranging from 11.5 to 12.1 mmHg that were found at distal anastomosis, at bifurcation and at the ostia of the left and right pulmonary arteries in all geometries. CONCLUSIONS: In all three oversized geometries, the local reparation of shear stress and pressure in the 16-mm model showed a similar local profile as in the native 12 mm RVOT. According to these findings, we suggest oversizing the natural 12-mm RVOT by not more than 4 mm. The elements responsible for wall degeneration and intimal hyperplasia remain very similar to the conditions present in native RVOT.

A thematic analysis of delusion with religious content in schizophrenia: open, closed, and mixed dynamics

The aim of the present study was to elicit how patients with delusions with religious contents conceptualized or experienced their spirituality and religiousness. Sixty-two patients with present or past religious delusions went through semistructured interviews, which were analyzed using the three coding steps described in the grounded theory. Three major themes were found in religious delusions: ''spiritual identity,'' ''meaning of illness,'' and ''spiritual figures.'' One higher-order concept was found: ''structure of beliefs.'' We identified dynamics that put these personal beliefs into a constant reconstruction through interaction with the world and others (i.e., open dynamics) and conversely structural dynamics that created a complete rupture with the surrounding world and others (i.e., closed structural dynamics); those dynamics may coexist. These analyses may help to identify psychological functions of delusions with religious content and, therefore, to better conceptualize interventions when dealing with it in psychotherapy.

Internationalization dynamics in the Swiss Corporate Tax Reform III

Over the last years, in a context of international tax competition, international and regional institutions such as the G20, the OECD, and the European Union are redefining what is acceptable in terms of corporate fiscal policy. Certain Swiss preferential tax treatments are considered by the above-mentioned institutions as harmful tax practices. As a consequence, the Swiss government has planned a third corporate tax reform (CTR III). The objective of this reform is to ensure international acceptability of the corporate tax system without prejudicing local public finances and Swiss corporate tax attractiveness. Therefore, we can posit that the CTR III is an internationalized object influenced by both regulation trends and tax competition framework. The main purpose of this paper is to provide elements of answer on how the currently discussed CTR III is influenced by the international environment, by focusing on its content as well as the reactions and positions of local stakeholders. With the help of internationalization literature, two distinct internationalization processes have been identified through the propositions of compliance measures with internationally-defined standards and competitiveness-enhancing measures. With regard to the configuration of local actors, the degree of conflict seems to be rather high. The current content of the reform is supported by the business community and right-wing parties and rejected by the unions and the Socialist Party.

NMR chemical shifts of the rhodopsin chromophore in the dark state and in bathorhodopsin: a hybrid QM/MM molecular dynamics study.

We investigate nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) parameters of the rhodopsin chromophore in the dark state of the protein and in the early photointermediate bathorhodopsin via first-principles molecular dynamics simulations and NMR chemical shift calculations in a hybrid quantum/classical (QM/MM) framework. NMR parameters are particularly sensitive to structural properties and to the chemical environment, which allows us to address different questions about the retinal chromophore in situ. Our calculations show that both the 13C and the 1H NMR chemical shifts are rather insensitive to the protonation state of Glu181, an ionizable amino acid side chain located in the vicinity of the isomerizing 11-cis bond. Thus, other techniques should be better suited to establish its protonation state. The calculated chemical shifts for bathorhodopsin further support our previously published theoretical structure, which is in very good agreement with more recent X-ray data.

Visualizing the spatiotemporal dynamics of DNA damage in budding yeast.

Fluorescence microscopy has enabled the analysis of both the spatial distribution of DNA damage and its dynamics during the DNA damage response (DDR). Three microscopic techniques can be used to study the spatiotemporal dynamics of DNA damage. In the first part we describe how we determine the position of DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) relative to the nuclear envelope. The second part describes how to quantify the co-localization of DNA DSBs with nuclear pore clusters, or other nuclear subcompartments. The final protocols describe methods for the quantification of locus mobility over time.

Fluctuation-Driven Neural Dynamics Reproduce Drosophila Locomotor Patterns.

The neural mechanisms determining the timing of even simple actions, such as when to walk or rest, are largely mysterious. One intriguing, but untested, hypothesis posits a role for ongoing activity fluctuations in neurons of central action selection circuits that drive animal behavior from moment to moment. To examine how fluctuating activity can contribute to action timing, we paired high-resolution measurements of freely walking Drosophila melanogaster with data-driven neural network modeling and dynamical systems analysis. We generated fluctuation-driven network models whose outputs-locomotor bouts-matched those measured from sensory-deprived Drosophila. From these models, we identified those that could also reproduce a second, unrelated dataset: the complex time-course of odor-evoked walking for genetically diverse Drosophila strains. Dynamical models that best reproduced both Drosophila basal and odor-evoked locomotor patterns exhibited specific characteristics. First, ongoing fluctuations were required. In a stochastic resonance-like manner, these fluctuations allowed neural activity to escape stable equilibria and to exceed a threshold for locomotion. Second, odor-induced shifts of equilibria in these models caused a depression in locomotor frequency following olfactory stimulation. Our models predict that activity fluctuations in action selection circuits cause behavioral output to more closely match sensory drive and may therefore enhance navigation in complex sensory environments. Together these data reveal how simple neural dynamics, when coupled with activity fluctuations, can give rise to complex patterns of animal behavior.