Do Nasty and Pleasant Surprises Regarding Tax Revenue Explain Spending Drifts ? : The Case of the Swiss Cantons

This article aims to explain the difference between the expenditure reported in governmental end-of-the-year budgets and the amounts previously forecasted in the approved beginning-of-the-year budgets. We measure how political, financial, and institutional variables affect this spending drift. We focus on two much-debated factors, namely, tax revenue budgeting errors and the stringency of fiscal rules. Our econometric approach uses a panel based on the 26 Swiss cantons covering the period of 1980 to 2011. Results suggest that stringent fiscal rules discourage budget overruns, whereas underestimating tax revenue-i.e., a budgetary "pleasant surprise"-offers the opportunity for some overspending.

Comparison of the metabolic and endocrine effects of 3,5,3'-triiodothyroacetic acid and thyroxine.

To test the hypothesis that 3,5,3'-triiodothyroacetic acid (Triac) is more active as a TSH suppressor than on peripheral parameters of thyroid hormone action, the following parameters were studied: basal metabolic rate, sleeping energy expenditure (SEE), sex hormone-binding globulin, and cholesterol. In a double blind trial, 14 subjects received during 3 weeks (phase 1) 180 micrograms T4 or 1700 micrograms Triac daily, divided into 3 doses, to suppress thyroidal secretion. The dosage was doubled for the next 3 weeks (phase 2). Under T4 treatment, TSH reached 0.11 mU/L during phase 1 and less than 0.03 mU/L during phase 2. With Triac, a marked TSH inhibition occurred after 1 week (0.17 mU/L), followed by an escape during the following 2 weeks (0.63 mU/L). During phase 2, an almost complete TSH suppression was obtained (0.03 mU/L). Both Triac doses suppressed endogenous thyroid hormone secretion, as evidenced by T4 and rT3 levels. Both substances induced a 2-fold stimulation of sex hormone-binding globulin during phase 2. Serum cholesterol decreased similarly, without affecting the high/low density lipoprotein ratio. T4 increased SEE by 4.1% and 8.5% during phases 1 and 2. Triac failed to induce the expected peripheral metabolic responses of the thyroid hormones, as demonstrated by an unchanged SEE and basal metabolic rate. These results clearly show a preferential action of Triac on TSH suppression.

Automatic recognition of postural allocations.

A significant part of daily energy expenditure may be attributed to non-exercise activity thermogenesis and exercise activity thermogenesis. Automatic recognition of postural allocations such as standing or sitting can be used in behavioral modification programs aimed at minimizing static postures. In this paper we propose a shoe-based device and related pattern recognition methodology for recognition of postural allocations. Inexpensive technology allows implementation of this methodology as a part of footwear. The experimental results suggest high efficiency and reliability of the proposed approach.

Is human lactation a particularly efficient process?

The recommended dietary allowances of many expert committees (UK DHSS 1979, FAO/WHO/UNU 1985, USA NRC 1989) have set out the extra energy requirements necessary to support lactation on the basis of an efficiency of 80 per cent for human milk production. The metabolic efficiency of milk synthesis can be derived from the measurements of resting energy expenditure in lactating women and in a matched control group of non-pregnant non-lactating women. The results of the present study in Gambian women, as well as a review of human studies on energy expenditure during lactation performed in different countries, suggest an efficiency of human milk synthesis greater than the value currently used by expert committees. We propose that an average figure of 95 per cent would be more appropriate to calculate the energy cost of human lactation.

A Structural Analysis of the Health Expenditures and Portfolio Choices of Retired Agents

Richer and healthier agents tend to hold riskier portfolios and spend proportionally less on health expenditures. Potential explanations include health and wealth effects on preferences, expected longevity or disposable total wealth. Using HRS data, we perform a structural estimation of a dynamic model of consumption, portfolio and health expenditure choices with recursive utility, as well as health-dependent income and mortality risk. Our estimates of the deep parameters highlight the importance of health capital, mortality risk control, convex health and mortality adjustment costs and binding liquidity constraints to rationalize the stylized facts. They also provide new perspectives on expected longevity and on the values of life and health.

Monitoring of posture allocations and activities by a shoe-based wearable sensor.

Monitoring of posture allocations and activities enables accurate estimation of energy expenditure and may aid in obesity prevention and treatment. At present, accurate devices rely on multiple sensors distributed on the body and thus may be too obtrusive for everyday use. This paper presents a novel wearable sensor, which is capable of very accurate recognition of common postures and activities. The patterns of heel acceleration and plantar pressure uniquely characterize postures and typical activities while requiring minimal preprocessing and no feature extraction. The shoe sensor was tested in nine adults performing sitting and standing postures and while walking, running, stair ascent/descent and cycling. Support vector machines (SVMs) were used for classification. A fourfold validation of a six-class subject-independent group model showed 95.2% average accuracy of posture/activity classification on full sensor set and over 98% on optimized sensor set. Using a combination of acceleration/pressure also enabled a pronounced reduction of the sampling frequency (25 to 1 Hz) without significant loss of accuracy (98% versus 93%). Subjects had shoe sizes (US) M9.5-11 and W7-9 and body mass index from 18.1 to 39.4 kg/m2 and thus suggesting that the device can be used by individuals with varying anthropometric characteristics.

Exercise and postprandial thermogenesis in obese women before and after weight loss.

The magnitude of thermogenesis induced by a test meal (17% protein, 54% CHO, and 29% fat) was assessed using indirect calorimetry in six obese women before and after weight loss (mean loss: 11.2 kg) and compared with six nonobese matched controls at rest for 5 h and during and following graded moderate exercise on a bicycle ergometer at three workloads. The test meal contained 60% of the energy expended in basal state over 24 h (736-1020 kcal/meal according to the group). In obese subjects the net absolute increase in energy expenditure (delta EE) in response to the meal was similar between exercising and resting conditions (delta EE = 0.27 vs 0.32 kcal/min, respectively) but tended to be lower in obese women after weight loss (delta EE = 0.19 kcal/min while exercising and 0.25 kcal/min while resting, p less than 0.05) and in control subjects (delta EE = 0.16 vs. 0.25 kcal/min, respectively: p less than 0.05). These results show that the thermogenic response to a meal is not potentiated by moderate exercise.

Continuous versus single bolus enteral nutrition: comparison of energy metabolism in humans.

Continuous respiratory exchange measurements were performed on five women and five men for 1 h before and 6 h after the administration of a milkshake (53% carbohydrates, 30% lipid, and 17% protein energy) given either as a single bolus dose or continuously during 3 h using a nasogastric tube. The energy administered corresponded to 2.3 times the postabsorptive resting energy expenditure. Resting energy expenditure, respiratory quotient, plasma glucose, and insulin concentrations increased sooner and steeper, and plasma free fatty acids levels decreased earlier with the meal ingested as a single dose than with continuous administration. The magnitude of nutrient-induced thermogenesis was greater (P less than 0.01) with the single dose (means +/- SE, 10.0 +/- 0.6%) than with the continuous administration (8.1 +/- 0.5%). The overall (6 h) substrate balances were not significantly different between the two modes of administration. It is concluded that the mode of enteral nutrient administration influences the immediate thermogenic response as well as changes in respiratory quotient, glycemia, and insulinemia; however, the overall nutrient balance was not affected by the mode of enteral nutrient administration.

New evidence for a thermogenic defect in human obesity.

A reduced thermogenic response to food ingestion may contribute to the dynamic phase of weight gain in obesity. A defect in diet-induced thermogenesis has been reported in about one third of an unselected group of obese women. After inducing weight loss with a hypocaloric diet, the thermogenic defect does not disappear. Since basal metabolic rate decreases with weight loss, the overall postprandial energy expenditure of 'post-obese' individuals can be lower than that of lean controls. As a consequence, post-obese subjects must reset energy intake to a lower level than the previous maintenance food consumption in order to avoid relapse of body weight gain.

The impotence of price controls: failed attempts to constrain pharmaceutical expenditures in Greece.

BACKGROUND: While the prices of pharmaceuticals are relatively low in Greece, expenditure on them is growing more rapidly than almost anywhere else in the European Union. OBJECTIVE: To describe and explain the rise in drug expenditures through decomposition of the increase into the contribution of changes in prices, in volumes and a product-mix effect. METHODS: The decomposition of the growth in pharmaceutical expenditures in Greece over the period 1991-2006 was conducted using data from the largest social insurance fund (IKA) that covers more than 50% of the population. RESULTS: Real drug spending increased by 285%, despite a 58% decrease in the relative price of pharmaceuticals. The increase in expenditure is mainly attributable to a switch to more innovative, but more expensive, pharmaceuticals, indicated by a product-mix residual of 493% in the decomposition. A rising volume of drugs also plays a role, and this is due to an increase in the number of prescriptions issued per doctor visit, rather than an increase in the number of visits or the population size. CONCLUSIONS: Rising pharmaceutical expenditures are strongly determined by physicians' prescribing behaviour, which is not subject to any monitoring and for which there are no incentives to be cost conscious.

Testing the predictive adaptive response in a host-parasite system

1. Harsh environmental conditions experienced during development can reduce the performance of the same individuals in adulthood. However, the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis postulates that if individuals adapt their phenotype during development to the environments where they are likely to live in the future, individuals exposed to harsh conditions in early life perform better when encountering the same harsh conditions in adulthood compared to those never exposed to these conditions before. 2. Using the common vole (Microtus arvalis) as study organism, we tested how exposure to flea parasitism during the juvenile stage affects the physiology (haematocrit, resistance to oxidative stress, resting metabolism, spleen mass, and testosterone), morphology (body mass, testis mass) and motor performance (open field activity and swimming speed) of the same individuals when infested with fleas in adulthood. According to the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis, we predicted that voles parasitized at the adult stage would perform better if they had already been parasitized with fleas at the juvenile stage. 3. We found that voles exposed to fleas in adulthood had a higher metabolic rate if already exposed to fleas when juvenile, compared to voles free of fleas when juvenile and voles free of fleas in adulthood. Independently of juvenile parasitism, adult parasitism impaired adult haematocrit and motor performances. Independently of adult parasitism, juvenile parasitism slowed down crawling speed in adult female voles. 4. Our results suggest that juvenile parasitism has long-term effects that do not protect from the detrimental effects of adult parasitism. On the contrary, experiencing parasitism in early-life incurs additional costs upon adult parasitism measured in terms of higher energy expenditure, rather than inducing an adaptive shift in the developmental trajectory. 5. Hence, our study provides experimental evidence for long term costs of parasitism. We found no support for a predictive adaptive response in this host-parasite system.

Thermal energetics of the New-Guinean moss-forest rat (Rattus niobe) in comparison with other tropical murid rodents.

The thermal energetics of rodents from cool, wet tropical highlands are poorly known. Metabolic rate, body temperature and thermal conductance were measured in the moss-forest rat, Rattus niobe (Rodentia), a small murid endemic to the highlands of New Guinea. These data were evaluated in the context of the variation observed in the genus Rattus and among tropical murids. In 7 adult R. niobe, basal metabolic rate (BMR) averaged 53.6±6.6mLO2h(-1), or 103% of the value predicted for a body mass of 42.3±5.8g. Compared to other species of Rattus, R. niobe combines a low body temperature (35.5±0.6°C) and a moderately low minimal wet thermal conductance cmin (5.88±0.7mLO2h(-1)°C(-1), 95% of predicted) with a small size, all of which lead to reduced energy expenditure in a constantly cool environment. The correlations of mean annual rainfall and temperature, altitude and body mass with BMR, body temperature and cmin were analyzed comparatively among tropical Muridae. Neither BMR, nor cmin or body temperature correlated with ambient temperature or altitude. Some of the factors which promote high BMR in higher latitude habitats, such as seasonal exposure to very low temperature and short reproductive season, are lacking in wet montane tropical forests. BMR increased with rainfall, confirming a pattern observed among other assemblages of mammals. This correlation was due to the low BMR of several desert adapted murids, while R. niobe and other species from wet habitats had a moderate BMR.

Diet-induced thermogenesis measured over a whole day in obese and nonobese women.

The overall thermogenic response to food intake measured over a whole day in 20 young nondiabetic obese women (body fat mean +/- SEM: 38.6 +/- 0.7%), was compared with that obtained in eight nonobese control women (body fat: 24.7 +/- 0.9%). The energy expenditure of the subjects was continuously measured over 24 h with a respiration chamber, and the spontaneous activity was assessed by a radar system. A new approach was used to obtain the integrated thermogenic response to the three meals ingested over the day (from 8:30 AM to 10:30 PM). This method allows to subtract the energy expended for physical activity from total energy expenditure and to calculate the integrated dietary-induced thermogenesis as the difference between the energy expended without physical activity and basal metabolic rate. The thermogenic response to the three meals (expressed in percentage of the total energy ingested) was found to be blunted in obese women (8.7 +/- 0.8%) as compared with that of controls (14.8 +/- 1.1%). There was an inverse correlation between the percentage body fat and the diet-induced thermogenesis (r = -0.61, p less than 0.001). In addition, the relative increase in diurnal urinary norepinephrine excretion was lower in obese than in the control subjects. It is concluded that a low overall thermogenic response to feeding may be a contributing factor for energy storage in some obese subjects; a blunted response of the sympathetic nervous system could explain this low thermogenic response.

Condition, disease and immune defence

Life-history traits and secondary sexual characters often demonstrate condition-dependence, and reproductive success thus ultimately appears to be determined by condition. Here we test the hypothesis that anti-parasite defence is condition-dependent and thus ultimately limits fitness. Animal hosts defend themselves against parasites by an efficient immune system that changes its activity level depending on level of infection. Since immune function is costly, as demonstrated by several field studies, we predicted that large immune defence organs should be maintained when the costs of an elevated immune response were reduced, or when the benefits were increased. Hence, the size of immune defence organs was predicted to increase in response to disease due to increased benefits of investment in immune function, and the; size was predicted to increase in response to high body condition because of reduced costs of investment in immune function. A comparative study of birds demonstrated that the size of the spleen was significantly increased among individuals suffering from parasitic infections and signs of disease as compared to healthy individuals. Furthermore, we found evidence for a positive association between spleen size and body condition. These findings are consistent with the hypothesised cost of immune function and hence a cost of anti-parasite defence.

Thermogenic response to an oral glucose load in man: comparison between young and elderly subjects.

To investigate the effect of age and change in body composition on the increase in energy expenditure consecutive to the ingestion of a 75-g glucose load, respiratory exchange measurements were performed on 24 subjects, 12 elderly (mean +/- SEM, 73 +/- 1 yr) and 12 young (25 +/- 1 yr). The body weight was comparable, 62 +/- 2 kg in the elderly group vs 61 +/- 3 in the young, but the body fat content of the elderly group was significantly greater than that of the young (29 +/- 2% vs 19 +/- 2%, p less than 0.001). The elderly group presented a slight glucose intolerance according to the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, with a 120-min plasma glucose of 149 +/- 9 mg/dl (p less than 0.005 vs young). The postabsorptive resting energy expenditure (REE) was 0.83 +/- 0.03 kcal/min in the elderly group vs 0.98 +/- 0.04 in the young (p less than 0.02); this decrease of 15% was mainly related to the decrease in fat free mass (FFM) in the elderly group, which averaged 14%. The difference was not significant when REE was expressed per kg FFM. The glucose-induced thermogenesis (GIT) expressed as percent of energy content of the load was 6.2 +/- 0.6% in the elderly group and 8.9 +/- 0.9% in the young (p less than 0.05). It is concluded that the glucose-induced thermogenesis is decreased in elderly subjects. However, when expressed per kg FFM, the increment in energy expenditure (EE), in response to the glucose load, is not different in elderly subjects, suggesting that the decrease of thermogenesis may be attributed to the age-related decrease in FFM.