Solution scanning as a key policy tool: identifying management interventions to help maintain and enhance regulating ecosystem services

The major task of policy makers and practitioners when confronted with a resource management problem is to decide on the potential solution(s) to adopt from a range of available options. However, this process is unlikely to be successful and cost effective without access to an independently verified and comprehensive available list of options. There is currently burgeoning interest in ecosystem services and quantitative assessments of their importance and value. Recognition of the value of ecosystem services to human well-being represents an increasingly important argument for protecting and restoring the natural environment, alongside the moral and ethical justifications for conservation. As well as understanding the benefits of ecosystem services, it is also important to synthesize the practical interventions that are capable of maintaining and/or enhancing these services. Apart from pest regulation, pollination, and global climate regulation, this type of exercise has attracted relatively little attention. Through a systematic consultation exercise, we identify a candidate list of 296 possible interventions across the main regulating services of air quality regulation, climate regulation, water flow regulation, erosion regulation, water purification and waste treatment, disease regulation, pest regulation, pollination and natural hazard regulation. The range of interventions differs greatly between habitats and services depending upon the ease of manipulation and the level of research intensity. Some interventions have the potential to deliver benefits across a range of regulating services, especially those that reduce soil loss and maintain forest cover. Synthesis and applications: Solution scanning is important for questioning existing knowledge and identifying the range of options available to researchers and practitioners, as well as serving as the necessary basis for assessing cost effectiveness and guiding implementation strategies. We recommend that it become a routine part of decision making in all environmental policy areas.

Generation and interconnection capacity expansion in cross-border electricity markets : the need for policy coordination

Electricity is a strategic service in modern societies. Thus, it is extremely important for governments to be able to guarantee an affordable and reliable supply, which depends to a great extent on an adequate expansion of the generation and transmission capacities. Cross- border integration of electricity markets creates new challenges for the regulators, since the evolution of the market is now influenced by the characteristics and policies of neighbouring countries. There is still no agreement on why and how regions should integrate their electricity markets. The aim of this thesis is to improve the understanding of integrated electricity markets and how their behaviour depends on the prevailing characteristics of the national markets and the policies implemented in each country. We developed a simulation model to analyse under what circumstances integration is desirable. This model is used to study three cases of interconnection between two countries. Several policies regarding interconnection expansion and operation, combined with different generation capacity adequacy mechanisms, are evaluated. The thesis is composed of three papers. The first paper presents a detailed description of the model and an analysis of the case of Colombia and Ecuador. It shows that market coupling can bring important benefits, but the relative size of the countries can lead to import dependency issues in the smaller country. The second paper compares the case of Colombia and Ecuador with the case of Great Britain and France. These countries are significantly different in terms of electricity sources, hydro- storage capacity, complementarity and demand growth. We show that complementarity is essential in order to obtain benefits from integration, while higher demand growth and hydro- storage capacity can lead to counterintuitive outcomes, thus complicating policy design. In the third paper, an extended version of the model presented in the first paper is used to analyse the case of Finland and its interconnection with Russia. Different trading arrangements are considered. We conclude that unless interconnection capacity is expanded, the current trading arrangement, where a single trader owns the transmission rights and limits the flow during peak hours, is beneficial for Finland. In case of interconnection expansion, market coupling would be preferable. We also show that the costs of maintaining a strategic reserve in Finland are justified in order to limit import dependency, while still reaping the benefits of interconnection. In general, we conclude that electricity market integration can bring benefits if the right policies are implemented. However, a large interconnection capacity is only desirable if the countries exhibit significant complementarity and trust each other. The outcomes of policies aimed at guaranteeing security of supply at a national level can be quite counterintuitive due to the interactions between neighbouring countries and their effects on interconnection and generation investments. Thus, it is important for regulators to understand these interactions and coordinate their decisions in order to take advantage of the interconnection without putting security of supply at risk. But it must be taken into account that even when integration brings benefits to the region, some market participants lose and might try to hinder the integration process. -- Dans les sociétés modernes, l'électricité est un service stratégique. Il est donc extrêmement important pour les gouvernements de pouvoir garantir la sécurité d'approvisionnement à des prix abordables. Ceci dépend en grande mesure d'une expansion adéquate des capacités de génération et de transmission. L'intégration des marchés électriques pose des nouveaux défis pour les régulateurs, puisque l'évolution du marché est maintenant influencée par les caractéristiques et les politiques des pays voisins. Il n'est pas encore claire pourquoi ni comment les marches électriques devraient s'intégrer. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'améliorer la compréhension des marchés intégrés d'électricité et de leur comportement en fonction des caractéristiques et politiques de chaque pays. Un modèle de simulation est proposé pour étudier les conditions dans lesquelles l'intégration est désirable. Ce modèle est utilisé pour étudier trois cas d'interconnexion entre deux pays. Plusieurs politiques concernant l'expansion et l'opération de l'interconnexion, combinées avec différents mécanismes de rémunération de la capacité, sont évalués. Cette thèse est compose de trois articles. Le premier présente une description détaillée du modèle et une analyse du cas de la Colombie et de l'Equateur. Il montre que le couplage de marchés peut amener des bénéfices importants ; cependant, la différence de taille entre pays peut créer des soucis de dépendance aux importations pour le pays le plus petit. Le second papier compare le cas de la Colombie et l'Equateur avec le cas de la Grande Bretagne et de la France. Ces pays sont très différents en termes de ressources, taille des réservoirs d'accumulation pour l'hydro, complémentarité et croissance de la demande. Nos résultats montrent que la complémentarité joue un rôle essentiel dans l'obtention des bénéfices potentiels de l'intégration, alors qu'un taux élevé de croissance de la demande, ainsi qu'une grande capacité de stockage, mènent à des résultats contre-intuitifs, ce qui complique les décisions des régulateurs. Dans le troisième article, une extension du modèle présenté dans le premier article est utilisée pour analyser le cas de la Finlande et de la Russie. Différentes règles pour les échanges internationaux d'électricité sont considérées. Nos résultats indiquent qu'à un faible niveau d'interconnexion, la situation actuelle, où un marchand unique possède les droits de transmission et limite le flux pendant les heures de pointe, est bénéfique pour la Finlande. Cependant, en cas d'expansion de la capacité d'interconnexion, «market coupling» est préférable. préférable. Dans tous les cas, la Finlande a intérêt à garder une réserve stratégique, car même si cette politique entraine des coûts, elle lui permet de profiter des avantages de l'intégration tout en limitant ca dépendance envers les importations. En général, nous concluons que si les politiques adéquates sont implémentées, l'intégration des marchés électriques peut amener des bénéfices. Cependant, une grande capacité d'interconnexion n'est désirable que si les pays ont une complémentarité importante et il existe une confiance mutuelle. Les résultats des politiques qui cherchent à préserver la sécurité d'approvisionnement au niveau national peuvent être très contre-intuitifs, étant données les interactions entre les pays voisins et leurs effets sur les investissements en génération et en interconnexion. Il est donc très important pour les régulateurs de comprendre ces interactions et de coordonner décisions à fin de pouvoir profiter de l'interconnexion sans mettre en danger la sécurité d'approvisionnement. Mais il faut être conscients que même quand l'intégration amène de bénéfices pour la région, certains participants au marché sont perdants et pourraient essayer de bloquer le processus d'intégration.

Exaggerated pulmonary hypertension and right ventricular dysfunction in high-altitude dwellers with patent foramen ovale.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable interindividual variability in pulmonary artery pressure among high-altitude (HA) dwellers, but the underlying mechanism is not known. At low altitude, a patent foramen ovale (PFO) is present in about 25% of the general population. Its prevalence is increased in clinical conditions associated with pulmonary hypertension and arterial hypoxemia, and it is thought to aggravate these problems. METHODS: We searched for a PFO (transesophageal echocardiography) in healthy HA dwellers (n = 22) and patients with chronic mountain sickness (n = 35) at 3,600 m above sea level and studied its effects (transthoracic echocardiography) on right ventricular (RV) function, pulmonary artery pressure, and vascular resistance at rest and during mild exercise (50 W), an intervention designed to further increase pulmonary artery pressure. RESULTS: The prevalence of PFO (32%) was similar to that reported in low-altitude populations and was not different in participants with and without chronic mountain sickness. Its presence was associated with RV enlargement at rest and an exaggerated increase in right-ventricular-to-right-atrial pressure gradient (25 ± 7 mm Hg vs 15 ± 9 mm Hg, P < .001) and a blunted increase in fractional area change of the right ventricle (3% [-1%, 5%] vs 7% [3%, 16%], P = .008) during mild exercise. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show, we believe for the first time, that although the prevalence of PFO is not increased in HA dwellers, its presence appears to facilitate pulmonary vasoconstriction and RV dysfunction during a mild physical effort frequently associated with daily activity. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01182792; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.

AltitudeOmics : impaired pulmonary gas exchange efficiency and blunted ventilatory acclimatization in humans with patent foramen ovale after 16 days at 5,260 m.

A patent foramen ovale (PFO), present in ∼40% of the general population, is a potential source of right-to-left shunt that can impair pulmonary gas exchange efficiency [i.e., increase the alveolar-to-arterial Po2 difference (A-aDO2)]. Prior studies investigating human acclimatization to high-altitude with A-aDO2 as a key parameter have not investigated differences between subjects with (PFO+) or without a PFO (PFO-). We hypothesized that in PFO+ subjects A-aDO2 would not improve (i.e., decrease) after acclimatization to high altitude compared with PFO- subjects. Twenty-one (11 PFO+) healthy sea-level residents were studied at rest and during cycle ergometer exercise at the highest iso-workload achieved at sea level (SL), after acute transport to 5,260 m (ALT1), and again at 5,260 m after 16 days of high-altitude acclimatization (ALT16). In contrast to PFO- subjects, PFO+ subjects had 1) no improvement in A-aDO2 at rest and during exercise at ALT16 compared with ALT1, 2) no significant increase in resting alveolar ventilation, or alveolar Po2, at ALT16 compared with ALT1, and consequently had 3) an increased arterial Pco2 and decreased arterial Po2 and arterial O2 saturation at rest at ALT16. Furthermore, PFO+ subjects had an increased incidence of acute mountain sickness (AMS) at ALT1 concomitant with significantly lower peripheral O2 saturation (SpO2). These data suggest that PFO+ subjects have increased susceptibility to AMS when not taking prophylactic treatments, that right-to-left shunt through a PFO impairs pulmonary gas exchange efficiency even after acclimatization to high altitude, and that PFO+ subjects have blunted ventilatory acclimatization after 16 days at altitude compared with PFO- subjects.

Very long-term follow-up after percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale.

AIMS: To evaluate the very long-term risk of recurrent thromboembolic events in patients treated by percutaneous PFO closure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2008, a total of 232 consecutive patients with PFO and a high suspicion of paradoxical embolism were treated by percutaneous closure. The following major events were observed during hospitalisation: implantation failure (one patient) and appearance of an acute left-sided device thrombus requiring surgery (one patient). The primary endpoint of the study was a recurrent embolic event beyond at least five years' follow-up. During a mean follow-up of 7.6±2.4 years, this event occurred in five patients, representing a 0.28% annual/patient risk. Other major complications during follow-up were the following: late thrombus formation on the device (two patients) and transient atrial fibrillation (15 patients). Three patients died during follow-up from cardiovascular causes considered not related to the index procedure. The PFO was judged closed on follow-up echocardiography in 92.3% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term follow-up following percutaneous PFO closure for presumed paradoxical embolism reveals very low recurrence rates. This observation should be put in perspective with recent published randomised trials comparing percutaneous closure and medical therapy.

Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

This paper considers an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. It studies a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, it assumes limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. The paper analyzes the optimal exchange rate policy by modeling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Its main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. The paper also shows that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

Determinants of antithrombotic choice for patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the influence of clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic characteristics on antithrombotic choice in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO), hypothesizing that features suggestive of paradoxical embolism might lead to greater use of anticoagulation. METHODS: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism Study combined 12 databases to create the largest dataset of patients with CS and known PFO status. We used generalized linear mixed models with a random effect of component study to explore whether anticoagulation was preferentially selected based on the following: (1) younger age and absence of vascular risk factors, (2) "high-risk" echocardiographic features, and (3) neuroradiologic findings. RESULTS: A total of 1,132 patients with CS and PFO treated with anticoagulation or antiplatelets were included. Overall, 438 participants (39%) were treated with anticoagulation with a range (by database) of 22% to 54%. Treatment choice was not influenced by age or vascular risk factors. However, neuroradiologic findings (superficial or multiple infarcts) and high-risk echocardiographic features (large shunts, shunt at rest, and septal hypermobility) were predictors of anticoagulation use. CONCLUSION: Both antithrombotic regimens are widely used for secondary stroke prevention in patients with CS and PFO. Radiologic and echocardiographic features were strongly associated with treatment choice, whereas conventional vascular risk factors were not. Prior observational studies are likely to be biased by confounding by indication.

Co-evolution of Policy Sectors: Health Care and Public Health in five Countries

Cette thèse analyse la co-évolution de deux secteurs dans la politique de la santé: santé publique (public health) et soins aux malades (health care). En d'autres termes, la relation entre les dimensions curative et préventive de la politique de la santé et leur développement dans la durée. Une telle recherche est nécessaire car les problèmes de la santé sont complexes et ont besoin de solutions coordonnées. De plus, les dépenses de la santé ont augmenté sans arrt durant les dernières décennies. Un moyen de réduire une future augmentation des dépenses pourrait consister en davantage d'investissement dans des mesures préventives. En relation avec cette idée, ma recherche analyse les politiques de la santé publique et les soins aux malades de cinq pays: Allemagne, Angleterre, Australie, Etats-Unis et Suisse. En m'appuyant sur la littérature secondaire, des statistiques descriptives et des entretiens avec des experts et des politiciens, j'analyse la relation entre les deux secteurs depuis la fin du dix-neuvième siècle. En particulier, je me focalise sur la relation des deux champs sur trois niveaux: institutions, acteurs et politiques. Mes résultats montrent les similitudes et les différences d'évolution entre les cinq pays. D'un c^oté, lorsque la profession médicale est politiquement active et que le pays consiste en une fédération centralisée ou en un gouvernement unitaire, les deux secteurs sont intégrés au niveau institutionnel, ralliant les professions et groupes d'intérêt des deux secteurs la cause commune dans une activité politique. Par contre, dans tous les pays, les deux secteurs ont co-évolué vers une complémentarité malgré de la politisation des professions et la centralisation du gouvernement. Ces résultats sont intéressants pour la science politique en général car ils soulignent l'importance des professions pour le développement institutionnel et proposent un cadre pour l'analyse de la co-évolution des politiques publiques en général. -- This Ph.D. thesis analyzes the co-evolution of the health care and the public health sectors. In other words, the relation between preventive and curative health policy and its evolution over time. Such research is necessary, because current health problems are complex and might need coordinated solutions. What is more, health expenditures have increased continuously in the last decades. One way to slow down further increase in health spending could be to invest more in preventative health policies. Therefore, I am connecting individual health care and public health into a common analysis, taking Australia, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and the U.S. as examples. Based on secondary literature, descriptive statistics and interviews with experts and policymakers, I am analyzing how the two sectors' relations co-evolved between the late nineteenth and the early twenty-first century. Specifically, I am researching how health care and public health were related on the levels of institutions, actors and policies. My results show that there are differences and similarities in the co-evolution of policy sectors between these countries. On the one hand, when the medical profession was politically active and the country a centralized federation or a unitary state, there was institutional integration and common political advocacy of the sectors' interest groups and professions. On the other hand, in all countries, both sectors co-evolved towards complementarity, irrespectively of the politicization of professions and centralization of government. These findings are interesting for the political science literature at large, because they underline the importance of professions for institutional development and propose an analytical framework for analyzing the co-evolution of policy sectors in general.

Literature report : a review of policy learning in five strands of political science research

This paper reviews the policy learning literature in political science. In recent years, the number of publications on learning in the political realm increased dramatically. Researchers have focused on how policymakers and administrators adapt policies based on learning processes or experiences. Thereby, learning has been discussed in very different ways. Authors have referred to learning in the context of ideas, understood as deeply held beliefs, and, as change and adaptation of policy instruments. Two other strands of literature have taken into consideration learning, namely the diffusion literature and research on transfer, which put forward learning to understand who learns from whom and what. Opposed to these views, political learning emphasizes the adaptation of new strategies by policymakers over the transfer of knowledge or broad ideas. In this approach, learning occurs due to the failure of existing policies, increasing problem pressure, scientific innovations, or a combination of these elements.