On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.

Biomarqueurs associés à la dyspnée et douleurs thoraciques: quelle utilité clinique [Biomarkers associated with dyspnea and chest pain: which cinical utility?].

Dyspnea and chest pain are typical reasons for consultations. biomarkers (CRP, procalcitonin, NT-proBNP, troponins, D-dimers) can have an interest for the diagnosis, the prognosis and the follow-up of several pathologies. There are however numerous pitfalls and limitations between the discovery of a biomarker and the utility in clinical practice. It is essential to always estimate a pre-test probability based on an attentive history and a careful physical examination, to know the intrinsic and extrinsic qualities of a test, and to determine a threshold of care. A biomarker should be used only if it modifies the patient's care and if it brings him a benefit compared to the patient who has no biomarker.

Differential involvement of MEK kinase 1 (MEKK1) in the induction of apoptosis in response to microtubule-targeted drugs versus DNA damaging agents.

MEK kinase 1 (MEKK1) is a 196-kDa enzyme that is involved in the regulation of the c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) pathway and apoptosis. In cells exposed to genotoxic agents including etoposide and cytosine arabinoside, MEKK1 is cleaved at Asp874 by caspases. The cleaved kinase domain of MEKK1, itself, stimulates caspase activity leading to apoptosis. Kinase-inactive MEKK1 expressed in HEK293 cells effectively blocks genotoxin-induced apoptosis. Treatment of cells with taxol, a microtubule stabilizing agent, did not induce MEKK1 cleavage in cells, and kinase-inactive MEKK1 expression failed to block taxol-induced apoptosis. MEKK1 became activated in HEK293 cells exposed to taxol, but in contrast to etoposide-treatment, taxol failed to increase JNK activity. Taxol treatment of cells, therefore, dissociates MEKK1 activation from the regulation of the JNK pathway. Overexpression of anti-apoptotic Bcl2 blocked MEKK1 and taxol-induced apoptosis but did not block the caspase-dependent cleavage of MEKK1 in response to etoposide. This indicates Bcl2 inhibition of apoptosis is, therefore, downstream of caspase-dependent MEKK1 cleavage. The results define the involvement of MEKK1 in the induction of apoptosis by genotoxins but not microtubule altering drugs.

Differential effects of sodium oxybate and baclofen on EEG, sleep, neurobehavioral performance, and memory.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Sodium oxybate (SO) is a GABA(B) agonist used to treat the sleep disorder narcolepsy. SO was shown to increase slow wave sleep (SWS) and EEG delta power (0.75-4.5 Hz), both indexes of NREM sleep (NREMS) intensity and depth, suggesting that SO enhances recuperative function of NREM. We investigated whether SO induces physiological deep sleep. DESIGN: SO was administered before an afternoon nap or before the subsequent experimental night in 13 healthy volunteers. The effects of SO were compared to baclofen (BAC), another GABA(B) receptor agonist, to assess the role of GABA(B) receptors in the SO response. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: As expected, a nap significantly decreased sleep need and intensity the subsequent night. Both drugs reversed this nap effect on the subsequent night by decreasing sleep latency and increasing total sleep time, SWS during the first NREMS episode, and EEG delta and theta (0.75-7.25 Hz) power during NREMS. The SO-induced increase in EEG delta and theta power was, however, not specific to NREMS and was also observed during REM sleep (REMS) and wakefulness. Moreover, the high levels of delta power during a nap following SO administration did not affect delta power the following night. SO and BAC taken before the nap did not improve subsequent psychomotor performance and subjective alertness, or memory consolidation. Finally, SO and BAC strongly promoted the appearance of sleep onset REM periods. CONCLUSIONS: The SO-induced EEG slow waves seem not to be functionally similar to physiological slow waves. Our findings also suggest a role for GABA(B) receptors in REMS generation. CITATION: Vienne J; Lecciso G; Constantinescu I; Schwartz S; Franken P; Heinzer R; Tafti M. Differential effects of sodium oxybate and baclofen on EEG, sleep, neurobehavioral performance, and memory. SLEEP 2012;35(8):1071-1084.

Differential inhibition of TRAIL-mediated DR5-DISC formation by decoy receptors 1 and 2.

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) is a member of the TNF family that induces cancer cell death by apoptosis with some selectivity. TRAIL-induced apoptosis is mediated by the transmembrane receptors death receptor 4 (DR4) (also known as TRAIL-R1) and DR5 (TRAIL-R2). TRAIL can also bind decoy receptor 1 (DcR1) (TRAIL-R3) and DcR2 (TRAIL-R4) that fail to induce apoptosis since they lack and have a truncated cytoplasmic death domain, respectively. In addition, DcR1 and DcR2 inhibit DR4- and DR5-mediated, TRAIL-induced apoptosis and we demonstrate here that this occurs through distinct mechanisms. While DcR1 prevents the assembly of the death-inducing signaling complex (DISC) by titrating TRAIL within lipid rafts, DcR2 is corecruited with DR5 within the DISC, where it inhibits initiator caspase activation. In addition, DcR2 prevents DR4 recruitment within the DR5 DISC. The specificity of DcR1- and DcR2-mediated TRAIL inhibition reveals an additional level of complexity for the regulation of TRAIL signaling.

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Mixed mating in androdioecious Mercurialis annua inferred using progeny arrays and diploid-acting microsatellite loci in a hexaploid background.

Background and Aims The frequency at which males can be maintained with hermaphrodites in androdioecious populations is predicted to depend on the selfing rate, because self-fertilization by hermaphrodites reduces prospective siring opportunities for males. In particular, high selfing rates by hermaphrodites are expected to exclude males from a population. Here, the first estimates are provided of the mating system from two wild hexaploid populations of the androdioecious European wind-pollinated plant M. annua with contrasting male frequencies.Methods Four diploid microsatellite loci were used to genotype 19-20 progeny arrays from two populations of M. annua, one with males and one without. Mating-system parameters were estimated using the program MLTR.Key Results Both populations had similar, intermediate outcrossing rates (t(m) = 0.64 and 0.52 for the population with and without males, respectively). The population without males showed a lower level of correlated paternity and biparental inbreeding and higher allelic richness and gene diversity than the population with males.Conclusions The results demonstrate the utility of new diploid microsatellite loci for mating system analysis in a hexaploid plant. It would appear that androdioecious M. annua has a mixed-mating system in the wild, an uncommon finding for wind-pollinated species. This study sets a foundation for future research to assess the relative importance of the sexual system, plant-density variation and stochastic processes for the regulation of male frequencies in M. annua over space and time.

Differential phosphorylation of tau proteins during kitten brain development and Alzheimer's disease.

Differential distribution and phosphorylation of tau proteins were studied in developing kitten brain by using several antibodies, and was compared to phosphorylation in Alzheimer's disease. Several antibodies demonstrated the presence of phosphorylated tau proteins during kitten brain development and identified pathological structures in human brain tissue. Antibody AD2, recognized tau in kittens and adult cats, but reacted in Alzheimer's tissue only with a pathological tau form. Antibody AT8 was prominent in developing kitten neurons and was found in axons and dendrites. After the first postnatal month this phosphorylation type disappeared from axons. Furthermore, dephosphorylation of kitten tau with alkaline phosphatase abolished immunoreactivity of AT8, but not that of AD2, pointing to a protection of the AD2 epitope in cats. Tau proteins during early cat brain development are phosphorylated at several sites that are also phosphorylated in paired helical filaments during Alzheimer's disease. In either event, phosphorylation of tau may play a crucial role to modulate microtubule dynamics, contributing to increased microtubule instability and promoting growth of processes during neuronal development or changing dynamic properties of the cytoskeleton and contributing to the formation of pathological structures in neurodegenerative diseases.

Differential role of naïve and memory CD4 T-cell subsets in primary alloresponses.

The T cell response to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) alloantigens occurs via two main pathways. The direct pathway involves the recognition of intact allogeneic MHC:peptide complexes on donor cells and provokes uniquely high frequencies of responsive T cells. The indirect response results from alloantigens being processed like any other protein antigen and presented as peptide by autologous antigen-presenting cells. The frequencies of T cells with indirect allospecificity are orders of magnitude lower and comparable to other peptide-specific responses. In this study, we explored the contributions of naïve and memory CD4(+) T cells to these two pathways. Using an adoptive transfer and skin transplantation model we found that naive and memory CD4(+) T cells, both naturally occurring and induced by sensitization with multiple third-party alloantigens, contributed equally to graft rejection when only the direct pathway was operative. In contrast, the indirect response was predominantly mediated by the naïve subset. Elimination of regulatory CD4(+)CD25(+) T cells enabled memory cells to reject grafts through the indirect pathway, but at a much slower tempo than for naïve cells. These findings have implications for better targeting of immunosuppression to inhibit immediate and later forms of alloimmunity.

CD99 is upregulated in placenta and astrocytomas with a differential subcellular distribution according to the malignancy stage.

In the present study, we searched for genes highly expressed in placenta and that could contribute to the establishment and maintenance of a malignant phenotype in different types of tumours, and in astrocytomas in particular. We employed a strategy based on the integration of in silico data from previously generated massively parallel signature sequencing and public serial analysis of gene expression databases. Among 12 selected genes, CD99 exhibited the highest relative mRNA expression in GBM compared to non-neoplastic brain tissues. In a larger cohort of astrocytic tumours, we further demonstrated increased CD99 expression in all malignant grades, with GBMs showing the highest values. These findings were confirmed at the protein level by Western blotting and immunohistochemistry. Additionally, we demonstrated the CD99 localisation profile in astrocytic tumours. Interestingly, CD99 expression was confined to the cytoplasm or membrane in more malignant astrocytomas, in contrast to non-neoplastic brain tissue or non-infiltrative pilocytic astrocytoma, which showed no obvious staining in these structures. Comparison of three GBM cell lines revealed higher CD99 expression at the membrane and higher migratory capacity in the A172 and U87MG lines, but lower CD99 expression and no migratory ability in the T98 line. Knocking down CD99 expression by siRNA decreased significantly the migration of both cell lines. These integrated CD99 gene and protein expression results suggest that CD99 expression in astrocytomas of different malignant grades might contribute to the infiltrative ability and support the importance of CD99 as a potential target to reduce infiltrative astrocytoma capacity in migration and invasion.

Termination of major ductile strike-slip shear and differential cooling along the Insubric line (Central Alps): U-Pb, Rb-Sr and 40Ar/39Ar ages of cross-cutting pegmatites

To constrain the age of strike-slip shear, related granitic magmatism, and cooling along the Insubric line, 29 size fractions of monazite and xenotime were dated by the U-Pb method, and a series of 25 Rb-Sr and Ar-40/Ar-39 ages were measured on different size fractions of muscovite and biotite. The three pegmatitic intrusions analyzed truncate high-grade metamorphic mylonite gneisses of the Simplon shear zone, a major Alpine structure produced in association with dextral strike-slip movements along the southern edge of the European plate, after collision with its Adriatic indenter. Pegmatites and aplites were produced between 29 and 25 Ma in direct relation to right-lateral shear along the Insubric line, by melting of continental crust having Sr-87/Sr-86 between 0.7199 and 0.7244 at the time of melting. High-temperature dextral strike-slip shear was active at 29.2 +/- 0.2 (2 sigma) Ma, and it terminated before 26.4 +/- 0.1 Ma. During dike injection, temperatures in the country rocks of the Isorno-Orselina and Monte Rosa structural units did not exceed approximate to 500 degrees C, leading to fast initial cooling, followed by slower cooling to approximate to 350 degrees C within several million years. In one case, initial cooling to approximate to 500 degrees C was significantly delayed by about 4 m.y., with final cooling to approximate to 300 degrees C at 20-19 Ma in all units. For the period between 29 and 19 Ma, cooling of the three sample localities was non-uniform in space and time, with significant variations on the kilometre scale. These differences are most likely due to strongly varying heat flow, and/or heterogeneous distribution of unroofing rates within the continuously deforming Insubric line. If entirely ascribed to differences in unroofing, corresponding rates would vary between 0.5 and 2.5 mm/y, for a thermal gradient of 30 degrees/km.

Cost-utility analysis of a three-month exercise programme vs usual care following multidisciplinary rehabilitation for chronic low back pain.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-utility of an exercise programme vs usual care after functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation in patients with chronic low back pain. DESIGN: Cost-utility analysis alongside a randomized controlled trial. SUBJECTS/PATIENTS: A total of 105 patients with chronic low back pain. METHODS: Chronic low back pain patients completing a 3-week functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation were randomized to either a 3-month exercise programme (n = 56) or usual care (n = 49). The exercise programme consisted of 24 training sessions during 12 weeks. At the end of functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation and at 1-year follow-up quality of life was measured with the SF-36 questionnaire, converted into utilities and transformed into quality--adjusted life years. Direct and indirect monthly costs were measured using cost diaries. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated as the incremental cost of the exercise programme divided by the difference in quality-adjusted life years between both groups. RESULTS: Quality of life improved significantly at 1-year follow-up in both groups. Similarly, both groups significantly reduced total monthly costs over time. No significant difference was observed between groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 79,270 euros. CONCLUSION: Adding an exercise programme after functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation compared with usual care does not offer significant long-term benefits in quality of life and direct and indirect costs.

Concordance among digital gene expression, microarrays, and qPCR when measuring differential expression of microRNAs.

Profiling microRNA (miRNA) expression is of widespread interest given the critical role of miRNAs in many cellular functions. Profiling can be achieved via hybridization-based (microarrays), sequencing-based, or amplification-based (quantitative reverse transcription-PCR, qPCR) technologies. Among these, microarrays face the significant challenge of accurately distinguishing between mature and immature miRNA forms, and different vendors have developed different methods to meet this challenge. Here we measure differential miRNA expression using the Affymetrix, Agilent, and Illumina microarray platforms, as well as qPCR (Applied Biosystems) and ultra high-throughput sequencing (Illumina). We show that the differential expression measurements are more divergent when the three types of microarrays are compared than when the Agilent microarray, qPCR, and sequencing technology measurements are compared, which exhibit a good overall concordance.

Utility of a biopsy in suspicious pigmented iris tumors.

BACKGROUND: In the presence of pigmented iris lesions evocative of malignant melanoma and implying oncological treatment, a foregoing biopsy to exclude a benign lesion may seem a reasonable approach. After examining patient files, the utility of such a diagnostic approach was explored. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective, consecutive histopathologic case series of 10 pigmented iris tumor specimens excised since 1993. Histopathologic diagnosis was compared with final diagnosis and outcome in the patient's medical chart. RESULTS: Five biopsies had only nevus cells, whereas ulterior clinical data or histopathologic examinations were compatible with the diagnosis of malignant melanoma. One biopsy contained insufficient sample tissue. Four biopsies confirmed clinical suspicion of iris melanoma. CONCLUSION: In the current case series, 6 out of 10 biopsies provided a falsely reassuring negative or an inconclusive result. Modern management techniques such as ultrasound biomicroscopy and proton therapy of the whole anterior segment have equally diminished indications for a biopsy. In cases clinically evocative of iris melanoma, a biopsy has only a relative value.