Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

Bi-planar 2D-to-3D registration in Fourier domain for stereoscopic X-ray motion tracking

In this paper we present a new method to track bonemovements in stereoscopic X-ray image series of the kneejoint. The method is based on two different X-ray imagesets: a rotational series of acquisitions of the stillsubject knee that will allow the tomographicreconstruction of the three-dimensional volume (model),and a stereoscopic image series of orthogonal projectionsas the subject performs movements. Tracking the movementsof bones throughout the stereoscopic image series meansto determine, for each frame, the best pose of everymoving element (bone) previously identified in the 3Dreconstructed model. The quality of a pose is reflectedin the similarity between its simulated projections andthe actual radiographs. We use direct Fourierreconstruction to approximate the three-dimensionalvolume of the knee joint. Then, to avoid the expensivecomputation of digitally rendered radiographs (DRR) forpose recovery, we reformulate the tracking problem in theFourier domain. Under the hypothesis of parallel X-raybeams, we use the central-slice-projection theorem toreplace the heavy 2D-to-3D registration of projections inthe signal domain by efficient slice-to-volumeregistration in the Fourier domain. Focusing onrotational movements, the translation-relevant phaseinformation can be discarded and we only consider scalarFourier amplitudes. The core of our motion trackingalgorithm can be implemented as a classical frame-wiseslice-to-volume registration task. Preliminary results onboth synthetic and real images confirm the validity ofour approach.

Autoreactive T cells bypass negative selection and respond to self-antigen stimulation during infection.

Central and peripheral tolerance prevent autoimmunity by deleting the most aggressive CD8(+) T cells but they spare cells that react weakly to tissue-restricted antigen (TRA). To reveal the functional characteristics of these spared cells, we generated a transgenic mouse expressing the TCR of a TRA-specific T cell that had escaped negative selection. Interestingly, the isolated TCR matches the affinity/avidity threshold for negatively selecting T cells, and when developing transgenic cells are exposed to their TRA in the thymus, only a fraction of them are eliminated but significant numbers enter the periphery. In contrast to high avidity cells, low avidity T cells persist in the antigen-positive periphery with no signs of anergy, unresponsiveness, or prior activation. Upon activation during an infection they cause autoimmunity and form memory cells. Unexpectedly, peptide ligands that are weaker in stimulating the transgenic T cells than the thymic threshold ligand also induce profound activation in the periphery. Thus, the peripheral T cell activation threshold during an infection is below that of negative selection for TRA. These results demonstrate the existence of a level of self-reactivity to TRA to which the thymus confers no protection and illustrate that organ damage can occur without genetic predisposition to autoimmunity.

Stem cell-related "self-renewal" signature and high epidermal growth factor receptor expression associated with resistance to concomitant chemoradiotherapy in glioblastoma.

PURPOSE: Glioblastomas are notorious for resistance to therapy, which has been attributed to DNA-repair proficiency, a multitude of deregulated molecular pathways, and, more recently, to the particular biologic behavior of tumor stem-like cells. Here, we aimed to identify molecular profiles specific for treatment resistance to the current standard of care of concomitant chemoradiotherapy with the alkylating agent temozolomide. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Gene expression profiles of 80 glioblastomas were interrogated for associations with resistance to therapy. Patients were treated within clinical trials testing the addition of concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide to radiotherapy. RESULTS: An expression signature dominated by HOX genes, which comprises Prominin-1 (CD133), emerged as a predictor for poor survival in patients treated with concomitant chemoradiotherapy (n = 42; hazard ratio = 2.69; 95% CI, 1.38 to 5.26; P = .004). This association could be validated in an independent data set. Provocatively, the HOX cluster was reminiscent of a "self-renewal" signature (P = .008; Gene Set Enrichment Analysis) recently characterized in a mouse leukemia model. The HOX signature and EGFR expression were independent prognostic factors in multivariate analysis, adjusted for the O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) methylation status, a known predictive factor for benefit from temozolomide, and age. Better outcome was associated with gene clusters characterizing features of tumor-host interaction including tumor vascularization and cell adhesion, and innate immune response. CONCLUSION: This study provides first clinical evidence for the implication of a "glioma stem cell" or "self-renewal" phenotype in treatment resistance of glioblastoma. Biologic mechanisms identified here to be relevant for resistance will guide future targeted therapies and respective marker development for individualized treatment and patient selection.

Screening for occupational asthma by using a self-administered questionnaire in a clinical setting

OBJECTIVE: Because of its high prevalence, early screening for occupational asthma (OA) is crucial. We aimed to evaluate the screening performance of the Occupational Asthma Screening Questionnaire-11 items (OASQ-11) in a clinical setting. METHODS: Between January 2009 and December 2011, 169 workers referred for potential OA to our hospital completed the OASQ-11 and underwent workups to determine the final diagnosis. The discriminative abilities of the OASQ-11 as a whole and in relation to demographic and exposure parameters were determined by the area under the receiving operator characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Model 1, consisting of the OASQ's items, showed fair discrimination (AUC, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.80). Addition of age and exposure duration to model 1 improved discrimination (AUC, 0.80; confidence interval, 0.72 to 0.88). CONCLUSION: A simple model consisting of the OASQ-11's items, age, and exposure duration could well discriminate subjects with OA in a clinical setting.

An evolutionary perspective on self-organized division of labor in social insects

Division of labor is a complex phenomenon observed throughout nature. Theoretical studies have focused either on its emergence through self-organization mechanisms or on its adaptive consequences. We suggest that the interaction of self-organization, which undoubtedly characterizes division of labor in social insects, and evolution should be further explored. We review the factors empirically shown to influence task choice. In light of these factors, we review the most important self-organization and evolutionary models for division of labor and outline their advantages and limitations. We describe ways to unify evolution and self-organization in the theoretical study of division of labor and recent results in this area. Finally, we discuss some benchmarks and primary challenges of this approach.

Superior venous drainage in the "LifeBox": a portable extracorporeal oxygenator with a self-expanding venous cannula.

BACKGROUND: In an experimental setting, the performance of the LifeBox, a new portable extracorporeal membrane oxygenator (ECMO) system suitable for patient transport, is presented. Standard rectilinear percutaneous cannulae are normally employed for this purpose, but have limited flow and pressure delivery due to their rigid structure. Therefore, we aimed to determine the potential for flow increase by using self-expanding venous cannulae. METHODS: Veno-arterial bypass was established in three pigs (40.6+/-5.1 kg). The venous line of the cardiopulmonary bypass was established by cannulation of the external jugular vein. The arterial side of the circulation was secured by cannulation of the common carotid artery. Two different venous cannulae (SmartCanula 18/36F 430mm and Biomedicus 19F) were examined for their functional integrity when used in conjunction with the centrifugal pump (500-3000 RPM) of the LifeBox system. RESULTS: At 1500, 2000, 2500, and 3000 RPM, the blood flow increased steadily for each cannula, but remained higher in the self-expanding cannula. That is, the 19F rectilinear cannula achieved a blood flow of 0.93+/-0.14, 1.47+/-0.37, 1.9+/-0.68, and 1.5+/-0.9 l/min, respectively, and the 18/36F self-expanding cannula achieved 1.1+/-0.1, 1.9+/-0.33, 2.8+/-0.39 and 3.66+/-0.52 l/min. However, when tested for venous line pressure, the standard venous cannula achieved -29+/-10.7mmHg while the self-expanding cannula achieved -13.6 +/-4.3mmHg at 1500 RMP. As the RPM increased from 2500 to 3000, the venous line pressure accounted for -141.9+/-20 and -98+/-7.3mmHg for the 19F rectilinear cannula and -30.6+/-6.4 and -45+/-11.6mmHg for the self-expanding cannula. CONCLUSION: The self-expanding cannula exhibited superior venous drainage ability when compared to the performance of the standard rectilinear cannula with the use of the LifeBox. The flow rate achieved was approximately 40% greater than the standard drainage device, with a maximal pump flow recorded at 4.3l/min.

Evolution of self-organized division of labor in a response threshold model.

Division of labor in social insects is determinant to their ecological success. Recent models emphasize that division of labor is an emergent property of the interactions among nestmates obeying to simple behavioral rules. However, the role of evolution in shaping these rules has been largely neglected. Here, we investigate a model that integrates the perspectives of self-organization and evolution. Our point of departure is the response threshold model, where we allow thresholds to evolve. We ask whether the thresholds will evolve to a state where division of labor emerges in a form that fits the needs of the colony. We find that division of labor can indeed evolve through the evolutionary branching of thresholds, leading to workers that differ in their tendency to take on a given task. However, the conditions under which division of labor evolves depend on the strength of selection on the two fitness components considered: amount of work performed and on worker distribution over tasks. When selection is strongest on the amount of work performed, division of labor evolves if switching tasks is costly. When selection is strongest on worker distribution, division of labor is less likely to evolve. Furthermore, we show that a biased distribution (like 3:1) of workers over tasks is not easily achievable by a threshold mechanism, even under strong selection. Contrary to expectation, multiple matings of colony foundresses impede the evolution of specialization. Overall, our model sheds light on the importance of considering the interaction between specific mechanisms and ecological requirements to better understand the evolutionary scenarios that lead to division of labor in complex systems. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00265-012-1343-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Self-measurement of blood pressure in clinical trials and therapeutic applications

Self-measurement of blood pressure (SMBP) is increasingly used to assess blood pressure outside the medical setting. A prerequisite for the wide use of SMBP is the availability of validated devices providing reliable readings when they are handled by patients. This is the case today with a number of fully automated oscillometric apparatuses. A major advantage of SMBP is the great number of readings, which is linked with high reproducibility. Given these advantages, one of the major indications for SMBP is the need for evaluation of antihypertensive treatment, either for individual patients in everyday practice or in clinical trials intended to characterize the effects of blood-pressure-lowering medications. In fact, SMBP is particularly helpful for evaluating resistant hypertension and detecting white-coat effect in patients exhibiting high office blood pressure under antihypertensive therapy. SMBP might also motivate the patient and improve his or her adherence to long-term treatment. Moreover, SMBP can be used as a sensitive technique for evaluating the effect of antihypertensive drugs in clinical trials; it increases the power of comparative trials, allowing one to study fewer patients or to detect smaller differences in blood pressure than would be possible with the office measurement. Therefore, SMBP can be regarded as a valuable technique for the follow-up of treated patients as well as for the assessment of antihypertensive drugs in clinical trials.

The C-terminal domain of Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface protein 3 self-assembles into alpha-helical coiled coil tetramer.

Proteins located on the surface of the pathogenic malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum are objects of intensive studies due to their important role in the invasion of human cells and the accessibility to host antibodies thus making these proteins attractive vaccine candidates. One of these proteins, merozoite surface protein 3 (MSP3) represents a leading component among vaccine candidates; however, little is known about its structure and function. Our biophysical studies suggest that the 40 residue C-terminal domain of MSP3 protein self-assembles into a four-stranded alpha-helical coiled coil structure where alpha-helices are packed "side-by-side". A bioinformatics analysis provides an extended list of known and putative proteins from different species of Plasmodium which have such MSP3-like C-terminal domains. This finding allowed us to extend some conclusions of our studies to a larger group of the malaria surface proteins. Possible structural and functional roles of these highly conserved oligomerization domains in the intact merozoite surface proteins are discussed.