Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

The Caribbean-North America-Cocos Triple Junction and the dynamics of the Polochic-Motagua fault systems: Pull-up and zipper models

The Polochic-Motagua fault systems (PMFS) are part of the sinistral transform boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. To the west, these systems interact with the subduction zone of the Cocos plate, forming a subduction-subduction-transform triple junction. The North American plate moves westward relative to the Caribbean plate. This movement does not affect the geometry of the subducted Cocos plate, which implies that deformation is accommodated entirely in the two overriding plates. Structural data, fault kinematic analysis, and geomorphic observations provide new elements that help to understand the late Cenozoic evolution of this triple junction. In the Miocene, extension and shortening occurred south and north of the Motagua fault, respectively. This strain regime migrated northward to the Polochic fault after the late Miocene. This shift is interpreted as a ``pull-up'' of North American blocks into the Caribbean realm. To the west, the PMFS interact with a trench-parallel fault zone that links the Tonala fault to the Jalpatagua fault. These faults bound a fore-arc sliver that is shared by the two overriding plates. We propose that the dextral Jalpatagua fault merges with the sinistral PMFS, leaving behind a suturing structure, the Tonala fault. This tectonic ``zipper'' allows the migration of the triple junction. As a result, the fore-arc sliver comes into contact with the North American plate and helps to maintain a linear subduction zone along the trailing edge of the Caribbean plate. All these processes currently make the triple junction increasingly diffuse as it propagates eastward and inland within both overriding plates.

A novel optical intracellular imaging approach for potassium dynamics in astrocytes.

Astrocytes fulfill a central role in regulating K+ and glutamate, both released by neurons into the extracellular space during activity. Glial glutamate uptake is a secondary active process that involves the influx of three Na+ ions and one proton and the efflux of one K+ ion. Thus, intracellular K+ concentration ([K+]i) is potentially influenced both by extracellular K+ concentration ([K+]o) fluctuations and glutamate transport in astrocytes. We evaluated the impact of these K+ ion movements on [K+]i in primary mouse astrocytes by microspectrofluorimetry. We established a new noninvasive and reliable approach to monitor and quantify [K+]i using the recently developed K+ sensitive fluorescent indicator Asante Potassium Green-1 (APG-1). An in situ calibration procedure enabled us to estimate the resting [K+]i at 133±1 mM. We first investigated the dependency of [K+]i levels on [K+]o. We found that [K+]i followed [K+]o changes nearly proportionally in the range 3-10 mM, which is consistent with previously reported microelectrode measurements of intracellular K+ concentration changes in astrocytes. We then found that glutamate superfusion caused a reversible drop of [K+]i that depended on the glutamate concentration with an apparent EC50 of 11.1±1.4 µM, corresponding to the affinity of astrocyte glutamate transporters. The amplitude of the [K+]i drop was found to be 2.3±0.1 mM for 200 µM glutamate applications. Overall, this study shows that the fluorescent K+ indicator APG-1 is a powerful new tool for addressing important questions regarding fine [K+]i regulation with excellent spatial resolution.

Dynamics of multiple lin gene expression in Sphingomonas paucimobilis B90A in response to different hexachlorocyclohexane isomers.

Sphingomonas paucimobilis B90A is able to degrade the alpha-, beta-, gamma-, and delta-isomers of hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH). It contains the genes linA, linB, linC, linD, linE, and linR, which have been implicated in HCH degradation. In this study, dynamic expression of the lin genes was measured in chemostat-grown S. paucimobilis B90A by RNA dot blot hybridization and real-time reverse transcriptase PCR upon exposure to a pulse of different HCH isomers. Irrespective of the addition of HCH, linA, linB, and linC were all expressed constitutively. In contrast, linD and linE were induced with alpha-HCH (2 mg/liter) and gamma-HCH (7 mg/liter). A sharp increase in mRNA levels for linD and linE was observed from 10 to 45 min after the addition of alpha- or gamma-HCH. Induction of linD and linE was not detectable upon the addition of 0.7 mg of gamma-HCH per liter, although the compound was degraded by the cells. The addition of beta-HCH (5 mg/liter) or delta-HCH (20 mg/liter) did not lead to linE and linD induction, despite the fact that 50% of the compounds were degraded. This suggests that degradation of beta- and delta-HCH proceeds by a different pathway than that of alpha- and gamma-HCH.

A fluorescent hormone biosensor reveals the dynamics of jasmonate signalling in plants.

Activated forms of jasmonic acid (JA) are central signals coordinating plant responses to stresses, yet tools to analyse their spatial and temporal distribution are lacking. Here we describe a JA perception biosensor termed Jas9-VENUS that allows the quantification of dynamic changes in JA distribution in response to stress with high spatiotemporal sensitivity. We show that Jas9-VENUS abundance is dependent on bioactive JA isoforms, the COI1 co-receptor, a functional Jas motif and proteasome activity. We demonstrate the utility of Jas9-VENUS to analyse responses to JA in planta at a cellular scale, both quantitatively and dynamically. This included using Jas9-VENUS to determine the cotyledon-to-root JA signal velocities on wounding, revealing two distinct phases of JA activity in the root. Our results demonstrate the value of developing quantitative sensors such as Jas9-VENUS to provide high-resolution spatiotemporal data about hormone distribution in response to plant abiotic and biotic stresses.

A quantitative analysis of L-glutamate-regulated Na+ dynamics in mouse cortical astrocytes: implications for cellular bioenergetics.

The mode of Na+ entry and the dynamics of intracellular Na+ concentration ([Na+]i) changes consecutive to the application of the neurotransmitter glutamate were investigated in mouse cortical astrocytes in primary culture by video fluorescence microscopy. An elevation of [Na+]i was evoked by glutamate, whose amplitude and initial rate were concentration dependent. The glutamate-evoked Na+ increase was primarily due to Na+-glutamate cotransport, as inhibition of non-NMDA ionotropic receptors by 6-cyano-7-nitroquinoxiline-2,3-dione (CNQX) only weakly diminished the response and D-aspartate, a substrate of the glutamate transporter, produced [Na+]i elevations similar to those evoked by glutamate. Non-NMDA receptor activation could nevertheless be demonstrated by preventing receptor desensitization using cyclothiazide. Thus, in normal conditions non-NMDA receptors do not contribute significantly to the glutamate-evoked Na+ response. The rate of Na+ influx decreased during glutamate application, with kinetics that correlate well with the increase in [Na+]i and which depend on the extracellular concentration of glutamate. A tight coupling between Na+ entry and Na+/K+ ATPase activity was revealed by the massive [Na+]i increase evoked by glutamate when pump activity was inhibited by ouabain. During prolonged glutamate application, [Na+]i remains elevated at a new steady-state where Na+ influx through the transporter matches Na+ extrusion through the Na+/K+ ATPase. A mathematical model of the dynamics of [Na+]i homeostasis is presented which precisely defines the critical role of Na+ influx kinetics in the establishment of the elevated steady state and its consequences on the cellular bioenergetics. Indeed, extracellular glutamate concentrations of 10 microM already markedly increase the energetic demands of the astrocytes.

Telomere length dynamics in normal individuals and in patients with hematopoietic stem cell-associated disorders.

The telomere length in nucleated peripheral blood (PB) cells indirectly reflects the mitotic history of their precursors: the hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). The average length of telomeres in PB leukocytes can be measured using fluorescence in situ hybridization and flow cytometry (flow FISH). We previously used flow FISH to characterize the age-related turnover of HSCs in healthy individuals. In this review, we describe results of recent flow FISH studies in patients with selected hematopoietic stem cell-associated disorders: chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) and several bone marrow failure syndromes. CML is characterized by a marked expansion of myeloid Philadelphia chromosome positive (Ph+) cells. Nevertheless, nonmalignant (Ph-) HSCs typically coexist in the bone marrow of CML patients. We analyzed the telomere length in > 150 peripheral blood leukocytes (PBLs) and bone marrow samples of patients with CML as well as samples of Ph- T-lymphocytes. Compared to normal controls, the overall telomere fluorescence in PBLs of patients with CML was significantly reduced. However, no telomere shortening was observed in Ph- T-lymphocytes. Patients in late chronic phase (CP) had significantly shorter telomeres than those assessed earlier in CP. Our data suggest that progressive telomere shortening is correlated with disease progression in CML. Within the group of patients with bone marrow failure syndromes, we only found significantly shortened telomeres (compared to age-adjusted controls) in granulocytes from patients with aplastic anemia (AA). Strikingly, the telomere length in granulocytes from AA patients who had recovered after immunosuppressive therapy (recAA) did not differ significantly from controls, whereas untreated patients and nonresponders with persistent severe pancytopenia (sAANR) showed marked and significant telomere shortening compared to healthy donors and patients with recAA. Furthermore, an inverse correlation between age-adjusted telomere length and peripheral blood counts was found in support of a model in which the degree of cytopenia and the amount of telomere shortening are correlated. These results support the concept of extensive proliferation of HSCs in subgroups of AA patients and suggest a potential use of telomere-length measurements as a prognostic tool in this group of disorders as well.

Temporal dynamics of auditory what and where processing in humans

Recent evidence suggests the human auditory system is organized,like the visual system, into a ventral 'what' pathway, devoted toidentifying objects and a dorsal 'where' pathway devoted to thelocalization of objects in space w1x. Several brain regions have beenidentified in these two different pathways, but until now little isknown about the temporal dynamics of these regions. We investigatedthis issue using 128-channel auditory evoked potentials(AEPs).Stimuli were stationary sounds created by varying interaural timedifferences and environmental real recorded sounds. Stimuli ofeach condition (localization, recognition) were presented throughearphones in a blocked design, while subjects determined theirposition or meaning, respectively.AEPs were analyzed in terms of their topographical scalp potentialdistributions (segmentation maps) and underlying neuronalgenerators (source estimation) w2x.Fourteen scalp potential distributions (maps) best explained theentire data set.Ten maps were nonspecific (associated with auditory stimulationin general), two were specific for sound localization and two werespecific for sound recognition (P-values ranging from 0.02 to0.045).Condition-specific maps appeared at two distinct time periods:;200 ms and ;375-550 ms post-stimulus.The brain sources associated with the maps specific for soundlocalization were mainly situated in the inferior frontal cortices,confirming previous findings w3x. The sources associated withsound recognition were predominantly located in the temporal cortices,with a weaker activation in the frontal cortex.The data show that sound localization and sound recognitionengage different brain networks that are apparent at two distincttime periods.References1. Maeder et al. Neuroimage 2001.2. Michel et al. Brain Research Review 2001.3. Ducommun et al. Neuroimage 2002.

Blood-Borne Circadian Signal Stimulates Daily Oscillations in Actin Dynamics and SRF Activity.

In peripheral tissues circadian gene expression can be driven either by local oscillators or by cyclic systemic cues controlled by the master clock in the brain's suprachiasmatic nucleus. In the latter case, systemic signals can activate immediate early transcription factors (IETFs) and thereby control rhythmic transcription. In order to identify IETFs induced by diurnal blood-borne signals, we developed an unbiased experimental strategy, dubbed Synthetic TAndem Repeat PROMoter (STAR-PROM) screening. This technique relies on the observation that most transcription factor binding sites exist at a relatively high frequency in random DNA sequences. Using STAR-PROM we identified serum response factor (SRF) as an IETF responding to oscillating signaling proteins present in human and rodent sera. Our data suggest that in mouse liver SRF is regulated via dramatic diurnal changes of actin dynamics, leading to the rhythmic translocation of the SRF coactivator Myocardin-related transcription factor-B (MRTF-B) into the nucleus.

Federal Dynamics in Times of Economic and Financial Crisis

The global economic and financial crisis is a challenge for all governments, but particularly for federal states because divided and/or shared territorial powers make federations susceptible to coordination problems in fiscal policy making. This article explores the effects of the ongoing crisis on federal relations. Three kinds of problems that may become the cause of federal tensions and conflicts are evoked: opportunism of subgovernments, centralisation and erosion of solidarity among members of the federation. Our analysis of fiscal policies and federal conflicts of 11 federations between 2007 and the present reveals three kinds of coordination problems: shirking in the use of federal government grants, rent-seeking in equalisation payments, and over-borrowing and over-spending. Our results show that shirking remained limited to few cases and occurred only in the first part of the crisis. However, rent-seeking and over-borrowing and over-spending led to a reduction of solidarity among subgovernments and to increased regulation of the fiscal discretion of the members of the federation. Subsequently, tensions in federal relations increased - although only in one case did this challenged the federal order.

Analysis of a finite volume method for a cross-diffusion model in population dynamics

The main goal of this paper is to propose a convergent finite volume method for a reactionâeuro"diffusion system with cross-diffusion. First, we sketch an existence proof for a class of cross-diffusion systems. Then the standard two-point finite volume fluxes are used in combination with a nonlinear positivity-preserving approximation of the cross-diffusion coefficients. Existence and uniqueness of the approximate solution are addressed, and it is also shown that the scheme converges to the corresponding weak solution for the studied model. Furthermore, we provide a stability analysis to study pattern-formation phenomena, and we perform two-dimensional numerical examples which exhibit formation of nonuniform spatial patterns. From the simulations it is also found that experimental rates of convergence are slightly below second order. The convergence proof uses two ingredients of interest for various applications, namely the discrete Sobolev embedding inequalities with general boundary conditions and a space-time $L^1$ compactness argument that mimics the compactness lemma due to Kruzhkov. The proofs of these results are given in the Appendix.

The Munc13 proteins differentially regulate readily releasable pool dynamics and calcium-dependent recovery at a central synapse.

The Munc13 gene family encodes molecules located at the synaptic active zone that regulate the reliability of synapses to encode information over a wide range of frequencies in response to action potentials. In the CNS, proteins of the Munc13 family are critical in regulating neurotransmitter release and synaptic plasticity. Although Munc13-1 is essential for synaptic transmission, it is paradoxical that Munc13-2 and Munc13-3 are functionally dispensable at some synapses, although their loss in other synapses leads to increases in frequency-dependent facilitation. We addressed this issue at the calyx of Held synapse, a giant glutamatergic synapse that we found to express all these Munc13 isoforms. We studied their roles in the regulation of synaptic transmission and their impact on the reliability of information transfer. Through detailed electrophysiological analyses of Munc13-2, Munc13-3, and Munc13-2-3 knock-out and wild-type mice, we report that the combined loss of Munc13-2 and Munc13-3 led to an increase in the rate of calcium-dependent recovery and a change in kinetics of release of the readily releasable pool. Furthermore, viral-mediated overexpression of a dominant-negative form of Munc13-1 at the calyx demonstrated that these effects are Munc13-1 dependent. Quantitative immunohistochemistry using Munc13-fluorescent protein knock-in mice revealed that Munc13-1 is the most highly expressed Munc13 isoform at the calyx and the only one highly colocalized with Bassoon at the active zone. Based on these data, we conclude that Munc13-2 and Munc13-3 isoforms limit the ability of Munc13-1 to regulate calcium-dependent replenishment of readily releasable pool and slow pool to fast pool conversion in central synapses.

Ruin problems under IBNR Dynamics

In this paper, we consider a discrete-time risk process allowing for delay in claim settlement, which introduces a certain type of dependence in the process. From martingale theory, an expression for the ultimate ruin probability is obtained, and Lundberg-type inequalities are derived. The impact of delay in claim settlement is then investigated. To this end, a convex order comparison of the aggregate claim amounts is performed with the corresponding non-delayed risk model, and numerical simulations are carried out with Belgian market data.