Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

An evaluation of the inorganic and organic geochemistry of the San Vicente Mississippi Valley-type zinc-lead district, central Peru: Implications for ore fluid composition, mixing processes, and sulfate reduction

Mississippi Tialley-type zinc-lead deposits and ore occurrences in the San Vicente belt are hosted in dolostones of the eastern Upper Triassic to Lower Jurassic Pucara basin, central Peru. Combined inorganic and organic geochemical data from 22 sites, including the main San Vicente deposit, minor ore occurrences, and barren localities, provide better understanding of fluid pathways and composition, ore precipitation mechanisms, Eh-pH changes during mineralization, and relationships between organic matter and ore formation. Ore-stage dark replacement dolomite and white sparry dolomite are Fe and rare earth element (REE) depleted, and Mn enriched, compared to the host dolomite. In the main deposit, they display significant negative Ce and probably Eu anomalies. Mixing of an incoming hot, slightly oxidizing, acidic brine (H2CO3 being the dominant dissolved carbon species), probably poor in REE and Fe, with local intraformational, alkaline, reducing waters explains the overall carbon and oxygen isotope variation and the distributions of REE and other trace elements in the different hydrothermal carbonate generations. The incoming ore fluid flowed through major aquifers, probably basal basin detrital units, with limited interaction with the carbonate host rocks. The hydrothermal carbonates show a strong regional chemical homogeneity, indicating access of the ore fluids by interconnected channelways near the ore occurrences. Negative Ce anomalies in the main deposit, that are absent at the district scale, indicate local ore-fluid chemical differences. Oxidation of both migrated and indigenous hydrocarbons by the incoming fluid provided the local reducing conditions necessary for sulfate reduction to H2S, pyrobitumen precipitation, and reduction of Eu3+ to Eu2+. Fe-Mn covariations, combined with the REE contents of the hydrothermal carbonates, are consistent with the mineralizing system shifting from reducing/rock-dominated to oxidizing/fluid-dominated conditions following ore deposition. Sulfate and sulfide sulfur isotopes support sulfide origin from evaporite-derived sulfate by thermochemical organic reduction; further evidence includes the presence of C-13-depleted calcite cements (similar to-12 parts per thousand delta(13)C) as sulfate pseudomorphs, elemental sulfur, altered organic matter in the host dolomite, and isotopically heavier, late, solid bitumen. Significant alteration of the indigenous and extrinsic hydrocarbons, with absent bacterial membrane biomarkers (hopanes) is observed. The light delta(34)S of sulfides from small mines and occurrences compared to the main deposit reflect a local contribution of isotopically light sulfur, evidence of local differences in the ore-fluid chemistry.

Geological structure, recharge processes and underground drainage of a glacierised karst aquifer system, Tsanfleuron-Sanetsch, Swiss Alps

The relationships between stratigraphic and tectonic setting, recharge processes and underground drainage of the glacierised karst aquifer system `Tsanfleuron-Sanetsch' in the Swiss Alps have been studied by means of various methods, particularly tracer tests (19 injections). The area belongs to the Helvetic nappes and consists of Jurassic to Palaeogene sedimentary rocks. Strata are folded and form a regional anticlinorium. Cretaceous Urgonian limestone constitutes the main karst aquifer, overlain by a retreating glacier in its upper part. Polished limestone surfaces are exposed between the glacier front and the end moraine of 1855/1860 (Little Ice Age); typical alpine karrenfields can be observed further below. Results show that (1) large parts of the area are drained by the Glarey spring, which is used as a drinking water source, while marginal parts belong to the catchments of other springs; (2) groundwater flow towards the Glarey spring occurs in the main aquifer, parallel to stratification, while flow towards another spring crosses the entire stratigraphic sequence, consisting of about 800 m of marl and limestone, along deep faults that were probably enlarged by mass movements; (3) the variability of glacial meltwater production influences the shape of the tracer breakthrough curves and, consequently, flow and transport in the aquifer.

Influence of triamcinolone intravitreal injection on retinochoroidal healing processes.

To analyze the effects of triamcinolone intravitreal injection on the wound healing processes after argon laser retinal photocoagulation, wild type C57BL/6J mice, 8-12 weeks old underwent a standard argon laser photocoagulation protocol. After pentobarbital anesthesia and pupil dilatation, argon laser lesions were induced (50microm, 400mW, 0.05s). Two photocoagulation impacts created two disc diameters from the optic nerve in both eyes. The photocoagulated mice were divided into four groups: Group I (n=12), photocoagulation controls, did not receive any intravitreous injection. Group II (n=12), received an intravitreous injection of 1microl of balanced salt solution (BSS). Group III (n=12), received an intravitreous injection of 1microl containing 15microg of triamcinolone acetonide (TAAC) in BSS. Two mice from each of these three groups were sacrificed at 1, 3, 7, 14 days and 2 and 4 months after photocoagulation. Group IV (n=10) received 1.5, 3, 7.5, 15, or 30microg of TAAC and were all sacrificed on day 14. The enucleated eyes were subjected to systematic analysis of the cellular remodeling processes taking place within the laser lesion and its vicinity. To this purpose, specific antibodies against GFAP, von Willebrand factor, F4/80 and KI67 were used for the detection of astrocytes, activated Müller cells, vascular endothelial cells, infiltrating inflammatory cells and actively proliferating cells. TUNEL reaction was also carried out along with nuclear DAPI staining. Temporal and spatial observations of the created photocoagulation lesions demonstrate that 24h following the argon laser beam, a localized and well-delineated affection of the RPE cells and choroid is observed in mice in Groups I and II. The inner retinal layers in these mice eyes are preserved while TUNEL positive (apoptotic) cells are observed at the retinal outer nuclear layer level. At this stage, intense staining with GFAP is associated with activated retinal astrocytes and Müller cells throughout the laser path. From day 3 after photocoagulation, dilated new choroidal capillaries are detected on the edges of the laser lesion. These processes are accompanied by infiltration of inflammatory cells and the presence of proliferating cells within the lesion site. Mice in Group III treated with 15microg/mul of triamcinolone showed a decreased number of infiltrating inflammatory cells and proliferating cells, which was not statistically significant compared to uninjected laser treated controls. The development of new choroidal capillaries on the edges of the laser lesion was also inhibited during the first 2 months after photocoagulation. However, on month 4 the growth of new vessels was observed in these mice treated with TAAC. Mice of Group IV did not show any development of new capillaries even with small doses. After argon laser photocoagulation of the mouse eye, intravitreal injection of triamcinolone markedly influenced the retina and choroid remodeling and healing processes. Triamcinolone is a powerful inhibitor of the formation of neovessels in this model. However, this inhibition is transient. These observations should provide a practical insight for the mode of TAAC use in patients with wet AMD.

The "handwriting brain": a meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies of motor versus orthographic processes.

INTRODUCTION: Handwriting is a modality of language production whose cerebral substrates remain poorly known although the existence of specific regions is postulated. The description of brain damaged patients with agraphia and, more recently, several neuroimaging studies suggest the involvement of different brain regions. However, results vary with the methodological choices made and may not always discriminate between "writing-specific" and motor or linguistic processes shared with other abilities. METHODS: We used the "Activation Likelihood Estimate" (ALE) meta-analytical method to identify the cerebral network of areas commonly activated during handwriting in 18 neuroimaging studies published in the literature. Included contrasts were also classified according to the control tasks used, whether non-specific motor/output-control or linguistic/input-control. These data were included in two secondary meta-analyses in order to reveal the functional role of the different areas of this network. RESULTS: An extensive, mainly left-hemisphere network of 12 cortical and sub-cortical areas was obtained; three of which were considered as primarily writing-specific (left superior frontal sulcus/middle frontal gyrus area, left intraparietal sulcus/superior parietal area, right cerebellum) while others related rather to non-specific motor (primary motor and sensorimotor cortex, supplementary motor area, thalamus and putamen) or linguistic processes (ventral premotor cortex, posterior/inferior temporal cortex). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis provides a description of the cerebral network of handwriting as revealed by various types of neuroimaging experiments and confirms the crucial involvement of the left frontal and superior parietal regions. These findings provide new insights into cognitive processes involved in handwriting and their cerebral substrates.

Quantification of magmatic and hydrothermal processes in a peralkaline syenite-alkali granite complex based on textures, phase equilibria, and stable and radiogenic isotopes

The Puklen complex of the Mid-Proterozoic Gardar Province, South Greenland, consists of various silica-saturated to quartz-bearing syenites, which are intruded by a peralkaline granite. The primary mafic minerals in the syenites are augite +/- olivine + Fe-Ti oxide + amphibole. Ternary feldspar thermometry and phase equilibria among mafic silicates yield T = 950-750degreesC, a(SiO2) = 0.7-1 and an f(O2) of 1-3 log units below the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer at 1 kbar. In the granites, the primary mafic minerals are ilmenite and Li-bearing arfvedsonite, which crystallized at temperatures below 750degreesC and at f(O2) values around the FMQ buffer. In both rock types, a secondary post-magmatic assemblage overprints the primary magmatic phases. In syenites, primary Ca-bearing minerals are replaced by Na-rich minerals such as aegirine-augite and albite, resulting in the release of Ca. Accordingly, secondary minerals include ferro-actinolite, (calcite-siderite)(ss), titanite and andradite in equilibrium with the Na-rich minerals. Phase equilibria indicate that formation of these minerals took place over a long temperature interval from near-magmatic temperatures down to similar to300degreesC. In the course of this cooling, oxygen fugacity rose in most samples. For example, late-stage aegirine in granites formed at the expense of arfvedsonite at temperatures below 300degreesC and at an oxygen fugacity above the haematite-magnetite (HM) buffer. The calculated delta(18)O(melt) value for the syenites (+5.9 to +6.3parts per thousand) implies a mantle origin, whereas the inferred delta(18)O(melt) value of <+5.1parts per thousand for the granitic melts is significantly lower. Thus, the granites require an additional low-delta(18)O contaminant, which was not involved in the genesis of the syenites. Rb/Sr data for minerals of both rock types indicate open-system behaviour for Rb and Sr during post-magmatic metasomatism. Neodymium isotope compositions (epsilonNd(1170 Ma) = -3.8 to -6.4) of primary minerals in syenites are highly variable, and suggest that assimilation of crustal rocks occurred to variable extents. Homogeneous epsilon(Nd) values of -5.9 and -6.0 for magmatic amphibole in the granites lie within the range of the syenites. Because of the very similar neodymium isotopic compositions of magmatic and late- to post-magmatic minerals from the same syenite samples a principally closed-system behaviour during cooling is implied. In contrast, for the granites an externally derived fluid phase is required to explain the extremely low epsilon(Nd) values of about -10 and low delta(18)O between +2.0 and +0.5parts per thousand for late-stage aegirine, indicating an open system in the late-stage history. In this study we show that the combination of phase equilibria constraints with stable and radiogenic isotope data on mineral separates can provide much better constraints on magma evolution during emplacement and crystallization than conventional whole-rock studies.

Post-switching beta synchronization reveals concomitant sensory reafferences and active inhibition processes

It is known that post-movement beta synchronization (PMBS) is involved both in active inhibition and in sensory reafferences processes. The aim of this study was examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of the PMBS involved during multi-limb coordination task. We investigated post-switching beta synchronization (assigned PMBS) using time-frequency and source estimations analyzes. Participants (n = 17) initiated an auditory-paced bimanual tapping. After a 1500 ms preparatory period, an imperative stimulus required to either selectively stop the left while maintaining the right unimanual tapping (Switch condition: SWIT) or to continue the bimanual tapping (Continue condition: CONT). PMBS significantly increased in SWIT compared to CONT with maximal difference within right central region in broad-band 14âeuro"30 Hz and within left central region in restricted-band 22âeuro"26 Hz. Source estimations localized these effects within right pre-frontal cortex and left parietal cortex, respectively. A negative correlation showed that participants with a low percentage of errors in SWIT had a large PMBS amplitude within right parietal and frontal cortices. This study shows for the first time simultaneous PMBS with distinct functions in different brain regions and frequency ranges. The left parietal PMBS restricted to 22âeuro"26 Hz could reflect the sensory reafferences of the right hand tapping disrupted by the switching. In contrast, the right pre-frontal PMBS in a broad-band 14âeuro"30 Hz is likely reflecting the active inhibition of the left hand stopped. Finally, correlations between behavioral performance and the magnitude of the PMBS suggest that beta oscillations can be viewed as a marker of successful active inhibition.

Are there control processes, and (if so) can they be studied?

Generally, so-called control processes are thought to be necessary when we must perform one out of several competing actions. Some examples include performance of a less well-practiced action instead of a well-practiced one (prepotency); learning a new action (novelty); and rapidly switching from one action to another (task-switching). While it certainly is difficult to perform the desired action in these circumstances, it is less clear that a separate set of processes (e.g., control processes) are necessary to explain the observed behavior. Another way to approach the study of control processes is to investigate physiological dependent measures (e.g., electrophysiological or neuroimaging measures). Although these offer another avenue of inquiry into control processes, they have yet to furnish unambiguous evidence that control processes exist. While this might suggest that there are no control processes, it is also possible that our methods are insufficiently sensitive to measure control processes. We have investigated this latter possibility using tasks that are neuroanatomically distinct, though within the same modality (vision). This approach did not yield evidence for a separable set of control processes. However, recent works using a task-switching paradigm in which subjects switch between a visual and an auditory task suggest that switching both task and modality may be importantly different than switching task within a given modality. This may represent a way forward in the study of control processes.

On the convergence of EM-like algorithms for image segmentation using Markov random fields.

Inference of Markov random field images segmentation models is usually performed using iterative methods which adapt the well-known expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for independent mixture models. However, some of these adaptations are ad hoc and may turn out numerically unstable. In this paper, we review three EM-like variants for Markov random field segmentation and compare their convergence properties both at the theoretical and practical levels. We specifically advocate a numerical scheme involving asynchronous voxel updating, for which general convergence results can be established. Our experiments on brain tissue classification in magnetic resonance images provide evidence that this algorithm may achieve significantly faster convergence than its competitors while yielding at least as good segmentation results.

Stable isotope (C, O, S) systematics of the mercury mineralization at Idrija, Slovenia: constraints on fluid source and alteration processes

The world-class Idrija mercury deposit (western Slovenia) is hosted by highly deformed Permocarboniferous to Middle Triassic sedimentary rocks within a complex tectonic structure at the transition between the External Dinarides and the Southern Alps. Concordant and discordant mineralization formed concomitant with Middle Triassic bimodal volcanism in an aborted rift. A multiple isotopic (C, O, S) investigation of host rocks and ore minerals was performed to put constraints on the source and composition of the fluid, and the hydrothermal alteration. The distributions of the delta(13)C and delta(18)O values of host and gangue carbonates are indicative of a fracture-controlled hydrothermal system, with locally high fluid-rock ratios. Quantitative modeling of the delta(13)C and delta(18)O covariation for host carbonates during temperature dependent fluid-rock interaction, and concomitant precipitation of void-filling dolomites points to a slightly acidic hydrothermal fluid (delta(13)Capproximate to-4parts per thousand and delta(18)Oapproximate to+10parts per thousand), which most likely evolved during isotopic exchange with carbonates under low fluid/rock ratios. The delta(34)S values of hydrothermal and sedimentary sulfur minerals were used to re-evaluate the previously proposed magmatic and evaporitic sulfur sources for the mineralization, and to assess the importance of other possible sulfur sources such as the contemporaneous seawater sulfate, sedimentary pyrite, and organic sulfur compounds. The delta(34)S values of the sulfides show a large variation at deposit down to hand-specimen scale. They range for cinnabar and pyrite from -19.1 to +22.8parts per thousand, and from -22.4 to +59.6parts per thousand, respectively, suggesting mixing of sulfur from different sources. The peak of delta(34)S values of cinnabar and pyrite close to 0parts per thousand is compatible with ore sulfur derived dominantly from a magmatic fluid and/or from hydrothermal leaching of basement rocks. The similar stratigraphic trends of the delta(34)S values of both cinnabar and pyrite suggest a minor contribution of sedimentary sulfur (pyrite and organic sulfur) to the ore formation. Some of the positive delta(34)S values are probably derived from thermochemical reduction of evaporitic and contemporaneous seawater sulfates.

Towards Machine Consciousness: Grounding Abstract Models as pi-Processes

We present a two-level model of concurrent communicating systems (CCS) to serve as a basis formachine consciousness. A language implementing threads within logic programming is ¯rstintroduced. This high-level framework allows for the de¯nition of abstract processes that can beexecuted on a virtual machine. We then look for a possible grounding of these processes into thebrain. Towards this end, we map abstract de¯nitions (including logical expressions representingcompiled knowledge) into a variant of the pi-calculus. We illustrate this approach through aseries of examples extending from a purely reactive behavior to patterns of consciousness.