Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Prevalence of t(11;19)(q21;p13) Translocation in Mucoepidermoid Carcinoma of the Conjunctiva

Purpose: The genetics events occurring in the development of mucoepidermoid carcinoma of the conjunctiva have not been extensively investigated. A t(11;19)(q21;p13) translocation has been reported in more than 50% of mucoepidermoid carcinoma of the salivary glands. This translocation induces a chimeric MECT1-MAML2 protein that act as a transcription activation factor in CREB and Notch pathways. Sustained expression of MECT1-MALM2 in RKE3 cells was tumorigenic in a mouse model. The presence of this translocation has been correlated with a better prognosis in mucoepidermoid carcinoma of the salivary glands. The purpose of this study was to identify the presence or absence of this translocation in mucoepidermoid carcinoma of the conjunctiva.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed all conjunctival mucoepidermoid carcinoma cases from the pathological files of Jules Gonin Eye Hospital from 1960-2010. The relevant clinico-pathological data was obtained. The presence of the t(11;19)(q21;p13) translocation was investigated by FISH using a dual color break apart probe. 100 nuclei were evaluated in each case. Normal conjunctiva was included as a control.Results: Material for FISH analysis was available in 9 patients (11 tumors). There were 2 females and 7 males. The mean age was years 71, 4 years old. Tumors were involving the bulbar conjunctiva in 6 cases and the tarsal conjunctiva in 5 cases. In a young patient of 30 years old, mucoepidermoid carcinoma was developed in the context of Xeroderma Pigmentosum. Hybridization could successfully be performed in 8 patients (9 tumors). No disruption of the dual color fusion signal was observed in all the cases, suggesting an absence of t(11;19)(q21;p13) translocation in mucoepidermoid carcinoma of the conjunctiva.Conclusions: Although our study encompasses only a limited number of cases due to the rarity of mucoepidermoid carcinoma of the conjunctiva, it demonstrates that a translocation commonly found in this tumor at other locations is not identified in the conjunctiva, suggesting that different mechanisms occur in the development of these tumors.

New stratigraphic data from the Lower Penninic between the Adula nappe and the Gotthard massif and consequences for the tectonics and the paleogeography of the Central Alps

New stratigraphic data along a profile from the Helvetic Gotthard Massif to the remnants of the North Penninic Basin in eastern Ticino and Graubunden are presented. The stratigraphic record together with existing geochemical and structural data, motivate a new interpretation of the fossil European distal margin. We introduce a new group of Triassic facies, the North-Penninic-Triassic (NPT), which is characterised by the Ladinian "dolomie bicolori". The NPT was located in-between the Briançonnais carbonate platform and the Helvetic lands. The observed horizontal transition, coupled with the stratigraphic superposition of an Helvetic Liassic on a Briaçonnais Triassic in the Luzzone-Terri nappe, links, prior to Jurassic rifting, the Briançonnais paleogeographic domain at the Helvetic Margin, south of the Gotthard. Our observations suggest that the Jurassic rifting separated the Briançonnais domain from the Helvetic margin by complex and protracted extension. The syn-rift stratigraphic record in the Adula nappe and surroundings suggests the presence of a diffuse rising area with only moderately subsiding basins above a thinned continental and proto-oceanic crust. Strong subsidence occurred in a second phase following protracted extension and the resulting delamination of the rising area. The stratigraphic coherency in the Adula's Mesozoic questions the idea of a lithospheric mélange in the eclogitic Adula nappe, which is more likely to be a coherent alpine tectonic unit. The structural and stratigraphic observations in the Piz Terri-Lunschania zone suggest the activity of syn-rift detachments. During the alpine collision these faults are reactivated (and inverted) and played a major role in allowing the Adula subduction, the "Penninic Thrust" above it and in creating the structural complexity of the Central Alps.

Evolution of mRNA expression levels of autosomal and sex-linked genes in amniotes

In addition to differences in protein-coding gene sequences, changes in expression resulting from mutations in regulatory sequences have long been hypothesized to be responsible for phenotypic differences between species. However, unlike comparison of genome sequences, few studies, generally restricted to pairwise comparisons of closely related mammalian species, have assessed between-species differences at the transcriptome level. They reported that gene expression evolves at different rates in various organs and in a pattern that is overall consistent with neutral models of evolution. In the first part of my thesis, I investigated the evolution of gene expression in therian mammals (i.e.7 placental and marsupials), based on microarray data from human, mouse and the gray short-tailed opossum (Monodelphis domestica). In addition to autosomal genes, a special focus was given to the evolution of X-linked genes. The therian X chromosome was recently shown to be younger than previously thought and to harbor a specific gene content (e.g., genes involved in brain or reproductive functions) that is thought to have been shaped by specific sex-related evolutionary forces. Sex chromosomes derive from ordinary autosomes and their differentiation led to the degeneration of the Y chromosome (in mammals) or W chromosome (in birds). Consequently, X- or Z-linked genes differ in gene dose between males and females such that the heterogametic sex has half the X/Z gene dose compared to the ancestral state. To cope with this dosage imbalance, mammals have been reported to have evolved mechanisms of dosage compensation.¦In the first project, I could first show that transcriptomes evolve at different rates in different organs. Out of the five tissues I investigated, the testis is the most rapidly evolving organ at the gene expression level while the brain has the most conserved transcriptome. Second, my analyses revealed that mammalian gene expression evolution is compatible with a neutral model, where the rates of change in gene expression levels is linked to the efficiency of purifying selection in a given lineage, which, in turn, is determined by the long-term effective population size in that lineage. Thus, the rate of DNA sequence evolution, which could be expected to determine the rate of regulatory sequence change, does not seem to be a major determinant of the rate of gene expression evolution. Thus, most gene expression changes seem to be (slightly) deleterious. Finally, X-linked genes seem to have experienced elevated rates of gene expression change during the early stage of X evolution. To further investigate the evolution of mammalian gene expression, we generated an extensive RNA-Seq gene expression dataset for nine mammalian species and a bird. The analyses of this dataset confirmed the patterns previously observed with microarrays and helped to significantly deepen our view on gene expression evolution.¦In a specific project based on these data, I sought to assess in detail patterns of evolution of dosage compensation in amniotes. My analyses revealed the absence of male to female dosage compensation in monotremes and its presence in marsupials and, in addition, confirmed patterns previously described for placental mammals and birds. I then assessed the global level of expression of X/Z chromosomes and contrasted this with its ancestral gene expression levels estimated from orthologous autosomal genes in species with non-homologous sex chromosomes. This analysis revealed a lack of up-regulation for placental mammals, the level of expression of X-linked genes being proportional to gene dose. Interestingly, the ancestral gene expression level was at least partially restored in marsupials as well as in the heterogametic sex of monotremes and birds. Finally, I investigated alternative mechanisms of dosage compensation and found that gene duplication did not seem to be a widespread mechanism to restore the ancestral gene dose. However, I could show that placental mammals have preferentially down-regulated autosomal genes interacting with X-linked genes which underwent gene expression decrease, and thus identified a novel alternative mechanism of dosage compensation.

Ruling out coronary artery disease in primary care: development and validation of a simple prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort). RESULTS: The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3-5 points; negative result <or= 2 points), which had a sensitivity of 87.1% (95% CI 79.9%-94.2%) and a specificity of 80.8% (77.6%-83.9%). INTERPRETATION: The prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care proved to be robust in the validation cohort. It can help to rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care.

Regression analysis of spatial data.

Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

Design, data management, and population baseline characteristics of the PERFORM magnetic resonance imaging project.

Quantitative information from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may substantiate clinical findings and provide additional insight into the mechanism of clinical interventions in therapeutic stroke trials. The PERFORM study is exploring the efficacy of terutroban versus aspirin for secondary prevention in patients with a history of ischemic stroke. We report on the design of an exploratory longitudinal MRI follow-up study that was performed in a subgroup of the PERFORM trial. An international multi-centre longitudinal follow-up MRI study was designed for different MR systems employing safety and efficacy readouts: new T2 lesions, new DWI lesions, whole brain volume change, hippocampal volume change, changes in tissue microstructure as depicted by mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy, vessel patency on MR angiography, and the presence of and development of new microbleeds. A total of 1,056 patients (men and women ≥ 55 years) were included. The data analysis included 3D reformation, image registration of different contrasts, tissue segmentation, and automated lesion detection. This large international multi-centre study demonstrates how new MRI readouts can be used to provide key information on the evolution of cerebral tissue lesions and within the macrovasculature after atherothrombotic stroke in a large sample of patients.

In vivo T-lymphocyte tolerance in the absence of thymic clonal deletion mediated by hematopoietic cells.

Thymic negative selection renders the developing T-cell repertoire tolerant to self-major histocompatability complex (MHC)/peptide ligands. The major mechanism of induction of self-tolerance is thought to be thymic clonal deletion, ie, the induction of apoptotic cell death in thymocytes expressing a self-reactive T-cell receptor. Consistent with this hypothesis, in mice deficient in thymic clonal deletion mediated by cells of hematopoietic origin, a twofold to threefold increased generation of mature thymocytes has been observed. Here we describe the analysis of the specificity of T lymphocytes developing in the absence of clonal deletion mediated by hematopoietic cells. In vitro, targets expressing syngeneic MHC were readily lysed by activated CD8(+) T cells from deletion-deficient mice. However, proliferative responses of T cells from these mice on activation with syngeneic antigen presenting cells were rather poor. In vivo, deletion-deficient T cells were incapable of induction of lethal graft-versus-host disease in syngeneic hosts. These data indicate that in the absence of thymic deletion mediated by hematopoietic cells functional T-cell tolerance can be induced by nonhematopoietic cells in the thymus. Moreover, our results emphasize the redundancy in thymic negative selection mechanisms.

Analysis of an iterative deconvolution approach for estimating the source wavelet during waveform inversion of crosshole ground-penetrating radar data

A major issue in the application of waveform inversion methods to crosshole georadar data is the accurate estimation of the source wavelet. Here, we explore the viability and robustness of incorporating this step into a time-domain waveform inversion procedure through an iterative deconvolution approach. Our results indicate that, at least in non-dispersive electrical environments, such an approach provides remarkably accurate and robust estimates of the source wavelet even in the presence of strong heterogeneity in both the dielectric permittivity and electrical conductivity. Our results also indicate that the proposed source wavelet estimation approach is relatively insensitive to ambient noise and to the phase characteristics of the starting wavelet. Finally, there appears to be little-to-no trade-off between the wavelet estimation and the tomographic imaging procedures.

Integrated methodologies to study human transcriptional regulation from functional genomics data

Abstract : The human body is composed of a huge number of cells acting together in a concerted manner. The current understanding is that proteins perform most of the necessary activities in keeping a cell alive. The DNA, on the other hand, stores the information on how to produce the different proteins in the genome. Regulating gene transcription is the first important step that can thus affect the life of a cell, modify its functions and its responses to the environment. Regulation is a complex operation that involves specialized proteins, the transcription factors. Transcription factors (TFs) can bind to DNA and activate the processes leading to the expression of genes into new proteins. Errors in this process may lead to diseases. In particular, some transcription factors have been associated with a lethal pathological state, commonly known as cancer, associated with uncontrolled cellular proliferation, invasiveness of healthy tissues and abnormal responses to stimuli. Understanding cancer-related regulatory programs is a difficult task, often involving several TFs interacting together and influencing each other's activity. This Thesis presents new computational methodologies to study gene regulation. In addition we present applications of our methods to the understanding of cancer-related regulatory programs. The understanding of transcriptional regulation is a major challenge. We address this difficult question combining computational approaches with large collections of heterogeneous experimental data. In detail, we design signal processing tools to recover transcription factors binding sites on the DNA from genome-wide surveys like chromatin immunoprecipitation assays on tiling arrays (ChIP-chip). We then use the localization about the binding of TFs to explain expression levels of regulated genes. In this way we identify a regulatory synergy between two TFs, the oncogene C-MYC and SP1. C-MYC and SP1 bind preferentially at promoters and when SP1 binds next to C-NIYC on the DNA, the nearby gene is strongly expressed. The association between the two TFs at promoters is reflected by the binding sites conservation across mammals, by the permissive underlying chromatin states 'it represents an important control mechanism involved in cellular proliferation, thereby involved in cancer. Secondly, we identify the characteristics of TF estrogen receptor alpha (hERa) target genes and we study the influence of hERa in regulating transcription. hERa, upon hormone estrogen signaling, binds to DNA to regulate transcription of its targets in concert with its co-factors. To overcome the scarce experimental data about the binding sites of other TFs that may interact with hERa, we conduct in silico analysis of the sequences underlying the ChIP sites using the collection of position weight matrices (PWMs) of hERa partners, TFs FOXA1 and SP1. We combine ChIP-chip and ChIP-paired-end-diTags (ChIP-pet) data about hERa binding on DNA with the sequence information to explain gene expression levels in a large collection of cancer tissue samples and also on studies about the response of cells to estrogen. We confirm that hERa binding sites are distributed anywhere on the genome. However, we distinguish between binding sites near promoters and binding sites along the transcripts. The first group shows weak binding of hERa and high occurrence of SP1 motifs, in particular near estrogen responsive genes. The second group shows strong binding of hERa and significant correlation between the number of binding sites along a gene and the strength of gene induction in presence of estrogen. Some binding sites of the second group also show presence of FOXA1, but the role of this TF still needs to be investigated. Different mechanisms have been proposed to explain hERa-mediated induction of gene expression. Our work supports the model of hERa activating gene expression from distal binding sites by interacting with promoter bound TFs, like SP1. hERa has been associated with survival rates of breast cancer patients, though explanatory models are still incomplete: this result is important to better understand how hERa can control gene expression. Thirdly, we address the difficult question of regulatory network inference. We tackle this problem analyzing time-series of biological measurements such as quantification of mRNA levels or protein concentrations. Our approach uses the well-established penalized linear regression models where we impose sparseness on the connectivity of the regulatory network. We extend this method enforcing the coherence of the regulatory dependencies: a TF must coherently behave as an activator, or a repressor on all its targets. This requirement is implemented as constraints on the signs of the regressed coefficients in the penalized linear regression model. Our approach is better at reconstructing meaningful biological networks than previous methods based on penalized regression. The method is tested on the DREAM2 challenge of reconstructing a five-genes/TFs regulatory network obtaining the best performance in the "undirected signed excitatory" category. Thus, these bioinformatics methods, which are reliable, interpretable and fast enough to cover large biological dataset, have enabled us to better understand gene regulation in humans.

An index to identify stroke-related vs incidental patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO. METHODS: Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates. RESULTS: Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest. CONCLUSION: Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.

CpG are efficient adjuvants for specific CTL induction against tumor antigen-derived peptide.

The identification of CTL-defined tumor-associated Ags has allowed the development of new strategies for cancer immunotherapy. To potentiate the CTL responses, peptide-based vaccines require the coadministration of adjuvants. Because oligodeoxynucleotides (ODN) containing CpG motifs are strong immunostimulators, we analyzed the ability of CpG ODN to act as adjuvant of the CTL response against tumor-derived synthetic peptide in the absence or presence of IFA. Mice transgenic for a chimeric MHC class I molecule were immunized with a peptide analog of MART-1/Melan-A(26-35) in the presence of CpG ODN alone or CpG ODN emulsified in IFA. The CTL response was monitored ex vivo by tetramer staining of lymphocytes. In blood, spleen, and lymph nodes, peptide mixed with CpG ODN alone was able to elicit a stronger systemic CTL response as compared with peptide emulsified in IFA. Moreover, CpG ODN in combination with IFA further enhanced the CTL response in terms of the frequency of tetramer+CD8+ T cells ex vivo. The CTL induced in vivo against peptide analog in the presence of CpG ODN are functional, as they were able to recognize and kill melanoma cells in vitro. Overall, these results indicate that CpG ODN by itself is a good candidate adjuvant of CTL response and can also enhance the effect of classical adjuvant.

The major transcription initiation site of the SV40 late promoter is a potent thyroid hormone response element.

Thyroid hormone receptors (TRs) are members of the nuclear hormone receptor superfamily, which act as transcription factors upon binding to specific DNA sequences called thyroid hormone (T3) response elements (TREs). Such elements are found in the upstream regulatory region of promoters as well as in intragenic sequences of T3-responsive genes. In this report, we demonstrate that SV40 late (SVL) promoter activity is strongly down-regulated by TR in the absence of ligand. Addition of T3 releases this repression, but does not further induce SVL promoter activity. Electrophoretic mobility shift analyses reveal a TR binding element that overlaps with the SV40 major late transcription initiation site. This element closely fits the consensus TRE, formed of two hexanucleotides organized in a tandem repeat separated by 4 nt, and is able to confer T3 responsiveness on a heterologous promoter. We further show that, although the presence of TR leads to quantitatively modified expression of an SVL-driven reporter gene, neither displacement of the site of transcription initiation nor modification of the splicing pattern of the primary transcripts occur.

Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Plastid genome characterisation in Brassica and Brassicaceae using a new set of nine SSRs.

We report a new set of nine primer pairs specifically developed for amplification of Brassica plastid SSR markers. The wide utility of these markers is demonstrated for haplotype identification and detection of polymorphism in B. napus, B. nigra, B. oleracea, B. rapa and in related genera Arabidopsis, Camelina, Raphanus and Sinapis. Eleven gene regions (ndhB-rps7 spacer, rbcL-accD spacer, rpl16 intron, rps16 intron, atpB-rbcL spacer, trnE-trnT spacer, trnL intron, trnL-trnF spacer, trnM-atpE spacer, trnR-rpoC2 spacer, ycf3-psaA spacer) were sequenced from a range of Brassica and related genera for SSR detection and primer design. Other sequences were obtained from GenBank/EMBL. Eight out of nine selected SSR loci showed polymorphism when amplified using the new primers and a combined analysis detected variation within and between Brassica species, with the number of alleles detected per locus ranging from 5 (loci MF-6, MF-1) to 11 (locus MF-7). The combined SSR data were used in a neighbour-joining analysis (SMM, D (DM) distances) to group the samples based on the presence and absence of alleles. The analysis was generally able to separate plastid types into taxon-specific groups. Multi-allelic haplotypes were plotted onto the neighbour joining tree. A total number of 28 haplotypes were detected and these differentiated 22 of the 41 accessions screened from all other accessions. None of these haplotypes was shared by more than one species and some were not characteristic of their predicted type. We interpret our results with respect to taxon differentiation, hybridisation and introgression patterns relating to the 'Triangle of U'.