174 resultados para Optimal hedging ratio
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Rapport de synthèse Cette thèse consiste en trois essais sur les stratégies optimales de dividendes. Chaque essai correspond à un chapitre. Les deux premiers essais ont été écrits en collaboration avec les Professeurs Hans Ulrich Gerber et Elias S. W. Shiu et ils ont été publiés; voir Gerber et al. (2006b) ainsi que Gerber et al. (2008). Le troisième essai a été écrit en collaboration avec le Professeur Hans Ulrich Gerber. Le problème des stratégies optimales de dividendes remonte à de Finetti (1957). Il se pose comme suit: considérant le surplus d'une société, déterminer la stratégie optimale de distribution des dividendes. Le critère utilisé consiste à maximiser la somme des dividendes escomptés versés aux actionnaires jusqu'à la ruine2 de la société. Depuis de Finetti (1957), le problème a pris plusieurs formes et a été résolu pour différents modèles. Dans le modèle classique de théorie de la ruine, le problème a été résolu par Gerber (1969) et plus récemment, en utilisant une autre approche, par Azcue and Muler (2005) ou Schmidli (2008). Dans le modèle classique, il y a un flux continu et constant d'entrées d'argent. Quant aux sorties d'argent, elles sont aléatoires. Elles suivent un processus à sauts, à savoir un processus de Poisson composé. Un exemple qui correspond bien à un tel modèle est la valeur du surplus d'une compagnie d'assurance pour lequel les entrées et les sorties sont respectivement les primes et les sinistres. Le premier graphique de la Figure 1 en illustre un exemple. Dans cette thèse, seules les stratégies de barrière sont considérées, c'est-à-dire quand le surplus dépasse le niveau b de la barrière, l'excédent est distribué aux actionnaires comme dividendes. Le deuxième graphique de la Figure 1 montre le même exemple du surplus quand une barrière de niveau b est introduite, et le troisième graphique de cette figure montre, quand à lui, les dividendes cumulés. Chapitre l: "Maximizing dividends without bankruptcy" Dans ce premier essai, les barrières optimales sont calculées pour différentes distributions du montant des sinistres selon deux critères: I) La barrière optimale est calculée en utilisant le critère usuel qui consiste à maximiser l'espérance des dividendes escomptés jusqu'à la ruine. II) La barrière optimale est calculée en utilisant le second critère qui consiste, quant à lui, à maximiser l'espérance de la différence entre les dividendes escomptés jusqu'à la ruine et le déficit au moment de la ruine. Cet essai est inspiré par Dickson and Waters (2004), dont l'idée est de faire supporter aux actionnaires le déficit au moment de la ruine. Ceci est d'autant plus vrai dans le cas d'une compagnie d'assurance dont la ruine doit être évitée. Dans l'exemple de la Figure 1, le déficit au moment de la ruine est noté R. Des exemples numériques nous permettent de comparer le niveau des barrières optimales dans les situations I et II. Cette idée, d'ajouter une pénalité au moment de la ruine, a été généralisée dans Gerber et al. (2006a). Chapitre 2: "Methods for estimating the optimal dividend barrier and the probability of ruin" Dans ce second essai, du fait qu'en pratique on n'a jamais toute l'information nécessaire sur la distribution du montant des sinistres, on suppose que seuls les premiers moments de cette fonction sont connus. Cet essai développe et examine des méthodes qui permettent d'approximer, dans cette situation, le niveau de la barrière optimale, selon le critère usuel (cas I ci-dessus). Les approximations "de Vylder" et "diffusion" sont expliquées et examinées: Certaines de ces approximations utilisent deux, trois ou quatre des premiers moments. Des exemples numériques nous permettent de comparer les approximations du niveau de la barrière optimale, non seulement avec les valeurs exactes mais également entre elles. Chapitre 3: "Optimal dividends with incomplete information" Dans ce troisième et dernier essai, on s'intéresse à nouveau aux méthodes d'approximation du niveau de la barrière optimale quand seuls les premiers moments de la distribution du montant des sauts sont connus. Cette fois, on considère le modèle dual. Comme pour le modèle classique, dans un sens il y a un flux continu et dans l'autre un processus à sauts. A l'inverse du modèle classique, les gains suivent un processus de Poisson composé et les pertes sont constantes et continues; voir la Figure 2. Un tel modèle conviendrait pour une caisse de pension ou une société qui se spécialise dans les découvertes ou inventions. Ainsi, tant les approximations "de Vylder" et "diffusion" que les nouvelles approximations "gamma" et "gamma process" sont expliquées et analysées. Ces nouvelles approximations semblent donner de meilleurs résultats dans certains cas.
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Background: Though commercial production of polychlorinated biphenyls was banned in the United States in 1977, exposure continues due to their environmental persistence. Several studies have examined the associationbetween environmental polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and modulations of the secondary sex ratio, with conflicting results.Objective: Our objective was to evaluate the association between maternal preconceptional occupational polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and the secondary sex ratio.Methods: We examined primipara singleton births of 2595 women, who worked in three capacitor plants at least one year during the period polychlorinated biphenyls were used. Cumulative estimated maternal occupationalpolychlorinated biphenyl exposure at the time of the infant's conception was calculated from plant-specific job exposure matrices. A logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between maternalpolychlorinated biphenyl exposure and male sex at birth (yes/no).Results: Maternal body mass index at age 20, smoking status, and race did not vary between those occupationally exposed and those unexposed before the child's conception. Polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed mothers were, however, more likely to have used oral contraceptives and to have been older at the birth of their first child than non-occupationally exposed women. Among 1506 infants liveborn to polychlorinated biphenyl-exposedprimiparous women, 49.8% were male; compared to 49.9% among those not exposed (n = 1089). Multivariate analyses controlling for mother's age and year of birth found no significant association between the odds of amale birth and mother's cumulative estimated polychlorinated biphenyl exposure to time of conception.Conclusions: Based on these data, we find no evidence of altered sex ratio among children born to primiparous polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed female workers.
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Local Mate Competition (LMC) theory predicts a female should produce a more female-biased sex ratio if her sons compete with each other for mates. Because it provides quantitative predictions that can be experimentally tested, LMC is a textbook example of the predictive power of evolutionary theory. A limitation of many earlier studies in the field is that the population structure and mating system of the studied species are often estimated only indirectly. Here we use microsatellites to characterize the levels of inbreeding of the bark beetle Xylosandrus germanus, a species where the level of LMC is expected to be high. RESULTS: For three populations studied, genetic variation for our genetic markers was very low, indicative of an extremely high level of inbreeding (FIS = 0.88). There was also strong linkage disequilibrium between microsatellite loci and a very strong genetic differentiation between populations. The data suggest that matings among non-siblings are very rare (3%), although sex ratios from X. germanus in both the field and the laboratory have suggested more matings between non-sibs, and so less intense LMC. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that caution is needed when inferring mating systems from sex ratio data, especially when a lack of biological detail means the use of overly simple forms of the model of interest.
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Sex allocation data in social Hymenoptera provide some of the best tests of kin selection, parent-offspring conflict and sex ratio theories. However, these studies critically depend on controlling for confounding ecological factors and on identifying all parties that potentially manipulate colony sex ratio. It has been suggested that maternally inherited parasites may influence sex allocation in social Hymenoptera. If the parasites can influence sex allocation, infected colonies are predicted to invest more resources in females than non-infected colonies, because the parasites are transmitted through females but not males. Prime candidates for such sex ratio manipulation are Wolbachia, because these cytoplasmically transmitted bacteria have been shown to affect the sex ratio of host arthropods by cytoplasmic incompatibility, parthenogenesis, male-killing and feminization. In this study, we tested whether Wolbachia infection is associated with colony sex ratio in two populations of the ant Formica exsecta that have been the subject of extensive sex ratio studies. In these populations colonies specialize in the production of one sex or the other. We found that almost all F. exsecta colonies in both populations are infected with Wolbachia. However, in neither population did we find a significant association in the predicted direction between the prevalence of Wolbachia and colony sex ratio. In particular, colonies with a higher proportion of infected workers did not produce more females. Hence, we conclude that Wolbachia does not seem to alter the sex ratio of its hosts as a means to increase transmission rate in these two populations of ants.
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The establishment of legislative rules about explosives in the eighties has reduced the illicit use of military and civilian explosives. However, bomb-makers have rapidly taken advantage of substances easily accessible and intended for licit uses to produce their own explosives. This change in strategy has given rise to an increase of improvised explosive charges, which is moreover assisted by the ease of implementation of the recipes, widely available through open sources. While the nature of the explosive charges has evolved, instrumental methods currently used in routine, although more sensitive than before, have a limited power of discrimination and allow mostly the determination of the chemical nature of the substance. Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been applied to a wide range of forensic materials. Conclusions drawn from the majority of the studies stress its high power of discrimination. Preliminary studies conducted so far on the isotopic analysis of intact explosives (pre-blast) have shown that samples with the same chemical composition and coming from different sources could be differentiated. The measurement of stable isotope ratios appears therefore as a new and remarkable analytical tool for the discrimination or the identification of a substance with a definite source. However, much research is still needed to assess the validity of the results in order to use them either in an operational prospect or in court. Through the isotopic study of black powders and ammonium nitrates, this research aims at evaluating the contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of explosives, both from a pre-blast and from a post-blast approach. More specifically, the goal of the research is to provide additional elements necessary to a valid interpretation of the results, when used in explosives investigation. This work includes a fundamental study on the variability of the isotopic profile of black powder and ammonium nitrate in both space and time. On one hand, the inter-variability between manufacturers and, particularly, the intra-variability within a manufacturer has been studied. On the other hand, the stability of the isotopic profile over time has been evaluated through the aging of these substances exposed to different environmental conditions. The second part of this project considers the applicability of this high-precision technology to traces and residues of explosives, taking account of the characteristics specific to the field, including their sampling, a probable isotopic fractionation during the explosion, and the interferences with the matrix of the site.
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Even though patients who develop ischemic stroke despite taking antiplatelet drugs represent a considerable proportion of stroke hospital admissions, there is a paucity of data from investigational studies regarding the most suitable therapeutic intervention. There have been no clinical trials to test whether increasing the dose or switching antiplatelet agents reduces the risk for subsequent events. Certain issues have to be considered in patients managed for a first or recurrent stroke while receiving antiplatelet agents. Therapeutic failure may be due to either poor adherence to treatment, associated co-morbid conditions and diminished antiplatelet effects (resistance to treatment). A diagnostic work up is warranted to identify the etiology and underlying mechanism of stroke, thereby guiding further management. Risk factors (including hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes) should be treated according to current guidelines. Aspirin or aspirin plus clopidogrel may be used in the acute and early phase of ischemic stroke, whereas in the long-term, antiplatelet treatment should be continued with aspirin, aspirin/extended release dipyridamole or clopidogrel monotherapy taking into account tolerance, safety, adherence and cost issues. Secondary measures to educate patients about stroke, the importance of adherence to medication, behavioral modification relating to tobacco use, physical activity, alcohol consumption and diet to control excess weight should also be implemented.
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An attractive treatment of cancer consists in inducing tumor-eradicating CD8(+) CTL specific for tumor-associated Ags, such as NY-ESO-1 (ESO), a strongly immunogenic cancer germ line gene-encoded tumor-associated Ag, widely expressed on diverse tumors. To establish optimal priming of ESO-specific CTL and to define critical vaccine variables and mechanisms, we used HLA-A2/DR1 H-2(-/-) transgenic mice and sequential immunization with immunodominant DR1- and A2-restricted ESO peptides. Immunization of mice first with the DR1-restricted ESO(123-137) peptide and subsequently with mature dendritic cells (DCs) presenting this and the A2-restriced ESO(157-165) epitope generated abundant, circulating, high-avidity primary and memory CD8(+) T cells that efficiently killed A2/ESO(157-165)(+) tumor cells. This prime boost regimen was superior to other vaccine regimes and required strong Th1 cell responses, copresentation of MHC class I and MHC class II peptides by the same DC, and resulted in upregulation of sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor 1, and thus egress of freshly primed CD8(+) T cells from the draining lymph nodes into circulation. This well-defined system allowed detailed mechanistic analysis, which revealed that 1) the Th1 cytokines IFN-gamma and IL-2 played key roles in CTL priming, namely by upregulating on naive CD8(+) T cells the chemokine receptor CCR5; 2) the inflammatory chemokines CCL4 (MIP-1beta) and CCL3 (MIP-1alpha) chemoattracted primed CD4(+) T cells to mature DCs and activated, naive CD8(+) T cells to DC-CD4 conjugates, respectively; and 3) blockade of these chemokines or their common receptor CCR5 ablated priming of CD8(+) T cells and upregulation of sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor 1. These findings provide new opportunities for improving T cell cancer vaccines.
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OBJECTIVES: Resuscitation in severe head injury may be detrimental when given with hypotonic fluids. We evaluated the effects of lactated Ringer's solution (sodium 131 mmol/L, 277 mOsm/L) compared with hypertonic saline (sodium 268 mmol/L, 598 mOsm/L) in severely head-injured children over the first 3 days after injury. DESIGN: An open, randomized, and prospective study. SETTING: A 16-bed pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) (level III) at a university children's hospital. PATIENTS: A total of 35 consecutive children with head injury. INTERVENTIONS: Thirty-two children with Glasgow Coma Scores of <8 were randomly assigned to receive either lactated Ringer's solution (group 1) or hypertonic saline (group 2). Routine care was standardized, and included the following: head positioning at 30 degrees; normothermia (96.8 degrees to 98.6 degrees F [36 degrees to 37 degrees C]); analgesia and sedation with morphine (10 to 30 microg/kg/hr), midazolam (0.2 to 0.3 mg/kg/hr), and phenobarbital; volume-controlled ventilation (PaCO2 of 26.3 to 30 torr [3.5 to 4 kPa]); and optimal oxygenation (PaO2 of 90 to 105 torr [12 to 14 kPa], oxygen saturation of >92%, and hematocrit of >0.30). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Mean arterial pressure and intracranial pressure (ICP) were monitored continuously and documented hourly and at every intervention. The means of every 4-hr period were calculated and serum sodium concentrations were measured at the same time. An ICP of 15 mm Hg was treated with a predefined sequence of interventions, and complications were documented. There was no difference with respect to age, male/female ratio, or initial Glasgow Coma Score. In both groups, there was an inverse correlation between serum sodium concentration and ICP (group 1: r = -.13, r2 = .02, p < .03; group 2: r = -.29, r2 = .08, p < .001) that disappeared in group 1 and increased in group 2 (group 1: r = -.08, r2 = .01, NS; group 2: r = -.35, r2 =.12, p < .001). Correlation between serum sodium concentration and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) became significant in group 2 after 8 hrs of treatment (r = .2, r2 = .04, p = .002). Over time, ICP and CPP did not significantly differ between the groups. However, to keep ICP at <15 mm Hg, group 2 patients required significantly fewer interventions (p < .02). Group 1 patients received less sodium (8.0 +/- 4.5 vs. 11.5 +/- 5.0 mmol/kg/day, p = .05) and more fluid on day 1 (2850 +/- 1480 vs. 2180 +/- 770 mL/m2, p = .05). They also had a higher frequency of acute respiratory distress syndrome (four vs. 0 patients, p = .1) and more than two complications (six vs. 1 patient, p = .09). Group 2 patients had significantly shorter ICU stay times (11.6 +/- 6.1 vs. 8.0 +/- 2.4 days; p = .04) and shorter mechanical ventilation times (9.5 +/- 6.0 vs. 6.9 +/- 2.2 days; p = .1). The survival rate and duration of hospital stay were similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of severe head injury with hypertonic saline is superior to that treatment with lactated Ringer's solution. An increase in serum sodium concentrations significantly correlates with lower ICP and higher CPP. Children treated with hypertonic saline require fewer interventions, have fewer complications, and stay a shorter time in the ICU.
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Cette thèse se propose d?étudier les forces évolutives qui influencent la bal- ance entre coopération et conflit. Deux exemples sont analysés en détail, les sociétés d?insectes et l?association entre la fourmi Formica exsecta et son sym- bionte intracellulaire Wolbachia. Chacune de ces deux associations animales est caractérisée par la coexistence de coopération et de conflit. Les colonies d?insectes sociaux sont un exemple typique de coopération. Néanmoins, la détermination haplodiploïde du sexe crée des apparentements asymétriques entre les membres de la colonie qui se traduisent par des con- flits entre reines et ouvrières. Un des conflits les plus importants porte sur le sexe-ratio, l?investissement optimal en sexués males et femelles étant équilibré pour la reine, mais biaisé en faveur des femelles pour les ouvrières. Jusqu?ici, les modèles étudiant ce conflit se basaient uniquement sur les asymétries d?ap- parentement. La première partie de cette thèse (Chapitres 1 et 2) propose d?introduire dans des modèles de sexe-ratio les mécanismes proximaux utilisés par les deux parties pour influencer le sexe-ratio. Ces mécanismes, par leurs ef- fets négatifs sur la productivité de la colonie, peuvent entraîner des déviations importantes du sexe-ratio par rapport à la valeur prédite par des modèles clas- siques. De plus, la prise en compte de ces mécanismes nous permet d?étudier dans quelle mesure les parties opposées sont sélectionnées pour influencer le sexe-ratio. Enfin, les modèles génèrent des prédictions quant à l?issue du con- flit, c?est-à-dire un compromis où reines et ouvrières partagent le contrôle de l?investissement. La seconde partie du travail porte sur l?infection de la fourmi Formica ex- secta par le symbionte cytoplasmique Wolbachia. Ce symbionte, présent chez un grand nombre d?espèces d?Arthropodes, est transmis maternellement. Afin de se répandre dans la population d?hôtes, Wolbachia manipule la physiolo- gie reproductive de l?organisme qui l?abrite. Le Chapitre 3 décrit une étude consacrée aux variations du sexe-ratio produit dans des colonies de fourmis? en fonction de la présence ou de l?absence de Wolbachia. Le Chapitre 4 étudie l?association entre les lignées du symbionte et les haplotypes mitochondriaux des hôtes. L?étude de l?association entre les deux éléments maternellement transmis est d?un intérêt particulier chez Formica exsecta car le taux de migra- tion femelle très faible engendre une forte strucure génétique mitochondriale.
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Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been used in numerous fields of forensic science in a source inference perspective. This review compiles the studies published on the application of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) to the traditional fields of forensic science so far. It completes the review of Benson et al. [1] and synthesises the extent of knowledge already gathered in the following fields: illicit drugs, flammable liquids, human provenancing, microtraces, explosives and other specific materials (packaging tapes, safety matches, plastics, etc.). For each field, a discussion assesses the state of science and highlights the relevance of the information in a forensic context. Through the different discussions which mark out the review, the potential and limitations of IRMS, as well as the needs and challenges of future studies are emphasized. The paper elicits the various dimensions of the source which can be obtained from the isotope information and demonstrates the transversal nature of IRMS as a tool for source inference.
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BACKGROUND: The pre-conditioning of tumor vessels by low-dose photodynamic therapy (L-PDT) was shown to enhance the distribution of chemotherapy in different tumor types. However, how light dose affects drug distribution and tumor response is unknown. Here we determined the effect of L-PDT fluence on vascular transport in human mesothelioma xenografts. The best L-PDT conditions regarding drug transport were then combined with Lipoplatin(®) to determine tumor response. in vivo. Lasers Surg. Med. 47:323-330, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. METHODS: Nude mice bearing dorsal skinfold chambers were implanted with H-Meso1 cells. Tumors were treated by Visudyne(®) -mediated photodynamic therapy with 100 mW/cm(2) fluence rate and a variable fluence (5, 10, 30, and 50 J/cm(2) ). FITC-Dextran (FITC-D) distribution was assessed in real time in tumor and normal tissues. Tumor response was then determined with best L-PDT conditions combined to Lipoplatin(®) and compared to controls in luciferase expressing H-Meso1 tumors by size and whole body bioluminescence assessment (n = 7/group). RESULTS: Tumor uptake of FITC-D following L-PDT was significantly enhanced by 10-fold in the 10 J/cm(2) but not in the 5, 30, and 50 J/cm(2) groups compared to controls. Normal surrounding tissue uptake of FITC-D following L-PDT was significantly enhanced in the 30 J/cm(2) and 50 J/cm(2) groups compared to controls. Altogether, the FITC-D tumor to normal tissue ratio was significantly higher in the 10 J/cm(2) group compared others. Tumor growth was significantly delayed in animals treated by 10 J/cm2-L-PDT combined to Lipoplatin(®) compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS: Fluence of L-PDT is critical for the optimal distribution and effect of subsequently administered chemotherapy. These findings have an importance for the clinical translation of the vascular L-PDT concept in the clinics. Lasers Surg. Med. 47:323-330, 2015.
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Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) is a multimodal, standardized and evidence-based perioperative care pathway. With ERAS, postoperative complications are significantly lowered, and, as a secondary effect, length of hospital stay and health cost are reduced. The patient recovers better and faster allowing to reduce in addition the workload of healthcare providers. Despite the hospital discharge occurs sooner, there is no increased charge of the outpatient care. ERAS can be safely applied to any patient by a tailored approach. The general practitioner plays an essential role in ERAS by assuring the continuity of the information and the follow-up of the patient.
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PURPOSE: To preliminarily test the hypothesis that fluorine 19 ((19)F) magnetic resonance (MR) imaging enables the noninvasive in vivo identification of plaque inflammation in a mouse model of atherosclerosis, with histologic findings as the reference standard. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The animal studies were approved by the local animal ethics committee. Perfluorocarbon (PFC) emulsions were injected intravenously in a mouse model of atherosclerosis (n = 13), after which (19)F and anatomic MR imaging were performed at the level of the thoracic aorta and its branches at 9.4 T. Four of these animals were imaged repeatedly (at 2-14 days) to determine the optimal detection time. Repeated-measures analysis of variance with a Tukey test was applied to determine if there was a significant change in (19)F signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the plaques and liver between the time points. Six animals were injected with a PFC emulsion that also contained a fluorophore. As a control against false-positive results, wild-type mice (n = 3) were injected with a PFC emulsion, and atherosclerotic mice were injected with a saline solution (n = 2). The animals were sacrificed after the last MR imaging examination, after which high-spatial-resolution ex vivo MR imaging and bright-field and immunofluorescent histologic examination were performed. RESULTS: (19)F MR signal was detected in vivo in plaques in the aortic arch and its branches. The SNR was found to significantly increase up to day 6 (P < .001), and the SNR of all mice at this time point was 13.4 ± 3.3. The presence of PFC and plaque in the excised vessels was then confirmed both through ex vivo (19)F MR imaging and histologic examination, while no signal was detected in the control animals. Immunofluorescent histologic findings confirmed the presence of PFC in plaque macrophages. CONCLUSION: (19)F MR imaging allows the noninvasive in vivo detection of inflammation in atherosclerotic plaques in a mouse model of atherosclerosis and opens up new avenues for both the early detection of vulnerable atherosclerosis and the elucidation of inflammation mechanisms in atherosclerosis.