Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distribution and anatomical localization of the glucose transporter 2 (GLUT2) in the adult rat brain--an immunohistochemical study.

The aim of this work was to study the distribution and cellular localization of GLUT2 in the rat brain by light and electron microscopic immunohistochemistry, whereas our ultrastructural observations will be reported in a second paper. Confirming previous results, we show that GLUT2-immunoreactive profiles are present throughout the brain, especially in the limbic areas and related nuclei, whereas they appear most concentrated in the ventral and medial regions close to the midline. Using cresyl violet counterstaining and double immunohistochemical staining for glial or neuronal markers (GFAp, CAII and NeuN), we show that two limited populations of oligodendrocytes and astrocytes cell bodies and processes are immunoreactive for GLUT2, whereas a cross-reaction with GLUT1 cannot be ruled out. In addition, we report that the nerve cell bodies clearly immunostained for GLUT2 were scarce (although numerous in the dentate gyrus granular layer in particular), whereas the periphery of numerous nerve cells appeared labeled for this transporter. The latter were clustered in the dorsal endopiriform nucleus and neighboring temporal and perirhinal cortex, in the dorsal amygdaloid region, and in the paraventricular and reuniens thalamic nuclei, whereas they were only a few in the hypothalamus. Moreover, a group of GLUT2-immunoreactive nerve cell bodies was localized in the dorsal medulla oblongata while some large multipolar nerve cell bodies peripherally labeled for GLUT2 were scattered in the caudal ventral reticular formation. This anatomical localization of GLUT2 appears characteristic and different from that reported for the neuronal transporter GLUT3 and GLUT4. Indeed, the possibility that GLUT2 may be localized in the sub-plasmalemnal region of neurones and/or in afferent nerve fibres remains to be confirmed by ultrastructural observations. Because of the neuronal localization of GLUT2, and of its distribution relatively similar to glucokinase, it may be hypothesized that this transporter is, at least partially, involved in cerebral glucose sensing.

Do seismic waves and fluid flow sense the same permeability?

We study the discrepancy between the effective flow permeability and the effective seismic permeability, that is, the effective permeability controlling seismic attenuation due to wave-induced fluid flow, in 2D rock samples having mesoscopic heterogeneities and in the presence of strong permeability fluctuations. In order to do so, we employ a numerical oscillatory compressibility test to determine attenuation and velocity dispersion due to wave-induced fluid flow in these kinds of media and compare the responses with those obtained by replacing the heterogeneous permeability field by constant values, including the average permeability as well as the effective flow permeability of the sample. The latter is estimated in a separate upscaling procedure by solving the steady-state flow equation in the rock sample under study. Numerical experiments let us verify that attenuation levels are less significant and the attenuation peak gets broader in the presence of such strong permeability fluctuations. Moreover, we observe that for very low frequencies the effective seismic permeability is similar to the effective flow permeability, while for very high frequencies it approaches the arithmetic average of the permeability field.

Policy Change and the Politics of Expertise. Economic Ideas and immigration Control Reforms in switzerland

This article analyses the varying influence across time of the "epistemic community" of free-market economists on immigration policy making in Switzerland. To this end, a framework for the analysis of the impact of economic expertise is provided, and then used in an historical analysis comparing the 1960s with the 1990s. Whereas this influence can be considered to have been weak in the 1960s, it gained significantly in importance in the 1990s, when a period of economic unrest seriously challenged previous immigration policies. It is argued that economic experts played an important role in framing the reforms undertaken during this latter period, notably by providing a "credible causal story" about the links between the existing immigration policy and the social problems which arose in the country in the 1990s. As compared to the 1960s, economic expertise in the 1990s enjoyed more credibility, more political support and took full advantage of a more uncertain social and economic context

Lung Cancer That Harbors an HER2 Mutation: Epidemiologic Characteristics and Therapeutic Perspectives.

PURPOSE HER2 mutations are identified in approximately 2%of non-small-cell lung cancers (NSCLC). There are few data available that describe the clinical course of patients with HER2-mutated NSCLC. PATIENTS AND METHODS We retrospectively identified 65 NSCLC, diagnosed with a HER2 in-frame insertion in exon 20. We collected clinicopathologic characteristics, patients' outcomes, and treatments. Results HER2 mutation was identified in 65 (1.7%) of 3,800 patients tested and was almost an exclusive driver, except for one single case with a concomitant KRAS mutation. Our population presented with a median age of 60 years (range, 31 to 86 years), a high proportion of women (45 women v 20 men; 69%), and a high proportion of never-smokers (n= 34; 52.3%). All tumors were adenocarcinomas and 50% were stage IV at diagnosis. For these latter cases, 22 anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) treatments were administered after conventional chemotherapy in 16 patients. Subsequently, four patients experienced progressive disease, seven experienced disease stabilizations, and 11 experienced partial responses (overall response rate, 50%; disease control rate [DCR], 82%). Specifically, we observed a DCR of 93% for trastuzumab-based therapies (n = 15) and a DCR of 100% for afatinib (n = 3) but no response to other HER2-targeted drugs (n = 3). Progression-free survival for patients with HER2 therapies was 5.1 months. Median survival was of 89.6 and 22.9 months for early-stage and stage IV patients, respectively. CONCLUSION This study, the largest to date dedicated to HER2-mutated NSCLC, reinforces the importance of screening for HER2 mutations in lung adenocarcinomas and suggests the potential efficacy of HER2-targeted drugs in this population.

RANKL expression, function, and therapeutic targeting in multiple myeloma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Bone destruction is a prominent feature of multiple myeloma, but conflicting data exist on the expression and pathophysiologic involvement of the bone remodeling ligand RANKL in this disease and the potential therapeutic benefits of its targeted inhibition. Here, we show that RANKL is expressed by primary multiple myeloma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) cells, whereas release of soluble RANKL was observed exclusively with multiple myeloma cells and was strongly influenced by posttranscriptional/posttranslational regulation. Signaling via RANKL into multiple myeloma and CLL cells induced release of cytokines involved in disease pathophysiology. Both the effects of RANKL on osteoclastogenesis and cytokine production by malignant cells could be blocked by disruption of RANK-RANKL interaction with denosumab. As we aimed to combine neutralization of RANKL with induction of antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity of natural killer (NK) cells against RANKL-expressing malignant cells and as denosumab does not stimulate NK reactivity, we generated RANK-Fc fusion proteins with modified Fc moieties. The latter displayed similar capacity compared with denosumab to neutralize the effects of RANKL on osteoclastogenesis in vitro, but also potently stimulated NK cell reactivity against primary RANKL-expressing malignant B cells, which was dependent on their engineered affinity to CD16. Our findings introduce Fc-optimized RANK-Ig fusion proteins as attractive tools to neutralize the detrimental function of RANKL while at the same time potently stimulating NK cell antitumor immunity.

Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.

Vascularite rhumatoïde et autres complications systémiques: aspects diagnostique et thérapeutique [Diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid vasculitis and other systemic complications of rheumatoid arthritis]

Rheumatoid arthritis is a systemic disease that can potentially affect any organ. If the articular manifestations are central to the disease; skin, ophthalmic, neurological, cardiac, pulmonary as well as renal manifestations are well recognized, the latter particularly in the context of a secondary amyloidosis. Although incidence of extraarticular manifestations appears to decrease, likely a result from our more aggressive and early management of rheumatoid arthritis, their consequences remain severe in terms of morbidity and mortality, and their treatments complicated. The new biological therapies seem to be a promising alternative to current therapies, such as cyclophosphamide and high dose prednisone, even if evidences are still limited.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Pharmacovigilance et teratovigilance 2008 [Pharmacovigilance and teratovigilance 2008]

Various signals and alerts of pharmacovigilance were issued in 2008. Frequent neuropsychiatric adverse events are reported with varenicline and rimonabant and the marketing authorization of the latter has been suspended. Ezetimibe/simvastatin combination is suspected of causing cancer while it's clinical utility remains to be proved. Neuroleptics, typical and atypical, are associated with an increased risk of death in elderly with dementia. Safety is a concern with various biological drugs. Rituximab, natalizumab and efalizumab are involved in rare cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy with fatal issue. Screening of HLA-B*5701, a good predictor of hypersensitivity reaction to abacavir, is recommended prior to starting therapy. Mycophenolate turns out to be a human teratogen.

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part III: Operational applications and evaluation

The research reported in this series of article aimed at (1) automating the search of questioned ink specimens in ink reference collections and (2) at evaluating the strength of ink evidence in a transparent and balanced manner. These aims require that ink samples are analysed in an accurate and reproducible way and that they are compared in an objective and automated way. This latter requirement is due to the large number of comparisons that are necessary in both scenarios. A research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in forensic contexts. This report focuses on the last of the three stages of the research programme. The calibration and acquisition process and the mathematical comparison algorithms were described in previous papers [C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science-Part I: Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 29-37; C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science- Part II: Development and testing of mathematical algorithms for the automatic comparison of ink samples analysed by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 38-50]. In this paper, the benefits and challenges of the proposed concepts are tested in two forensic contexts: (1) ink identification and (2) ink evidential value assessment. The results show that different algorithms are better suited for different tasks. This research shows that it is possible to build digital ink libraries using the most commonly used ink analytical technique, i.e. high-performance thin layer chromatography, despite its reputation of lacking reproducibility. More importantly, it is possible to assign evidential value to ink evidence in a transparent way using a probabilistic model. It is therefore possible to move away from the traditional subjective approach, which is entirely based on experts' opinion, and which is usually not very informative. While there is room for the improvement, this report demonstrates the significant gains obtained over the traditional subjective approach for the search of ink specimens in ink databases, and the interpretation of their evidential value.

Difference in the homocysteine-lowering effect of folic acid in haemodialysis patients with and without occlusive vascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Hyperhomocysteinaemia has been identified as an independent cardiovascular risk factor and is found in more than 85% of patients on maintenance haemodialysis. Previous studies have shown that folic acid can lower circulating homocysteine in dialysis patients. We evaluated prospectively the effect of increasing the folic acid dosage from 1 to 6 mg per dialysis on plasma total homocysteine levels of haemodialysis patients with and without a history of occlusive vascular artery disease (OVD). METHODS: Thirty-nine stable patients on high-flux dialysis were studied. Their mean age was 63 +/-11 years and 17 (43%) had a history of OVD, either coronary and/or cerebral and/or peripheral occlusive disease. For several years prior to the study, the patients had received an oral post-dialysis multivitamin supplement including 1 mg of folic acid per dialysis. After baseline determinations, the folic acid dose was increased from 1 to 6 mg/dialysis for 3 months. RESULTS: After 3 months, plasma homocysteine had decreased significantly by approximately 23% from 31.1 +/- 12.7 to 24.5 +/- 9 micromol/l (P = 0.0005), while folic acid concentrations had increased from 6.5 +/- 2.5 to 14.4+/-2.5 microg/l (P < 0.0001). However, the decrease of homocysteine was quite different in patients with and in those without OVD. In patients with OVD, homocysteine decreased only marginally by approximately 2.5% (from 29.0 +/- 10.3 to 28.3 +/- 8.4 micromol/l, P = 0.74), whereas in patients without OVD there was a significant reduction of approximately 34% (from 32.7+/-14.4 to 21.6+/-8.6 micromol/l, P = 0.0008). Plasma homocysteine levels were reduced by > 15% in three patients (18%) in the group with OVD compared with 19 (86%) in the group without OVD (P = 0.001), and by > 30% in none of the patients (0%) in the former group compared with 13 (59%) in the latter (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that the homocysteine-lowering effect of folic acid administration appears to be less effective in haemodialysis patients having occlusive vascular disease than in those without evidence of such disease.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Management and prognosis of status epilepticus according to hospital setting: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The treatment of status epilepticus (SE) is based on relatively little evidence although several guidelines have been published. A recent study reported a worse SE prognosis in a large urban setting as compared to a peripheral hospital, postulating better management in the latter. The aim of this study was to analyse SE episodes occurring in different settings and address possible explanatory variables regarding outcome, including treatment quality. METHODS: Over six months we prospectively recorded consecutive adults with SE (fit lasting five or more minutes) at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV) and in six peripheral hospitals (PH) in the same region. Demographical, historical and clinical variables were collected, including SE severity estimation (STESS score) and adherence to Swiss SE treatment guidelines. Outcome at discharge was categorised as "good" (return to baseline), or "poor" (persistent neurological sequelae or death). RESULTS: Of 54 patients (CHUV: 36; PH 18), 33% had a poor outcome. Whilst age, SE severity, percentage of SE episodes lasting less than 30 minutes and total SE duration were similar, fewer patients had a good outcome at the CHUV (61% vs 83%; OR 3.57; 95% CI 0.8-22.1). Mortality was 14% at the CHUV and 5% at the PH. Most treatments were in agreement with national guidelines, although less often in PH (78% vs 97%, P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Although not statistically significant, we observed a slightly worse SE prognosis in a large academic centre as compared to smaller hospitals. Since SE severity was similar in the two settings but adherence to national treatment guidelines was higher in the academic centre, further investigation on the prognostic role of SE treatment and outcome determinants is required.

Human Prominin-1 (CD133) Is Detected in Both Neoplastic and Non-Neoplastic Salivary Gland Diseases and Released into Saliva in a Ubiquitinated Form.

Prominin-1 (CD133) is physiologically expressed at the apical membranes of secretory (serous and mucous) and duct cells of major salivary glands. We investigated its expression in various human salivary gland lesions using two distinct anti-prominin-1 monoclonal antibodies (80B258 and AC133) applied on paraffin-embedded sections and characterized its occurrence in saliva. The 80B258 epitope was extensively expressed in adenoid cystic carcinoma, in lesser extent in acinic cell carcinoma and pleomorphic adenoma, and rarely in mucoepidermoid carcinoma. The 80B258 immunoreactivity was predominately detected at the apical membrane of tumor cells showing acinar or intercalated duct cell differentiation, which lined duct- or cyst-like structures, and in luminal secretions. It was observed on the whole cell membrane in non-luminal structures present in the vicinity of thin-walled blood vessels and hemorrhagic areas in adenoid cystic carcinoma. Of note, AC133 labeled only a subset of 80B258-positive structures. In peritumoral salivary gland tissues as well as in obstructive sialadenitis, an up-regulation of prominin-1 (both 80B258 and AC133 immunoreactivities) was observed in intercalated duct cells. In most tissues, prominin-1 was partially co-expressed with two cancer markers: carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and mucin-1 (MUC1). Differential centrifugation of saliva followed by immunoblotting indicated that all three markers were released in association with small membrane vesicles. Immuno-isolated prominin-1-positive vesicles contained CEA and MUC1, but also exosome-related proteins CD63, flotillin-1, flotillin-2 and the adaptor protein syntenin-1. The latter protein was shown to interact with prominin-1 as demonstrated by its co-immunoisolation. A fraction of saliva-associated prominin-1 appeared to be ubiquitinated. Collectively, our findings bring new insights into the biochemistry and trafficking of prominin-1 as well as its immunohistochemical profile in certain types of salivary gland tumors and inflammatory diseases.