189 resultados para Evidence, Criminal.
Resumo:
The pace of development of new healthcare technologies and related knowledge is very fast. Implementation of high quality evidence-based knowledge is thus mandatory to warrant an effective healthcare system and patient safety. However, even though only a small fraction of the approximate 2500 scientific publication indexed daily in Medline is actually useful to clinical practice, the amountof the new information is much too large to allow busy healthcare professionals to stay aware of possibly important evidence-based information.
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Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.
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Most approaches aiming at finding genes involved in adaptive events have focused on the detection of outlier loci, which resulted in the discovery of individually "significant" genes with strong effects. However, a collection of small effect mutations could have a large effect on a given biological pathway that includes many genes, and such a polygenic mode of adaptation has not been systematically investigated in humans. We propose here to evidence polygenic selection by detecting signals of adaptation at the pathway or gene set level instead of analyzing single independent genes. Using a gene-set enrichment test to identify genome-wide signals of adaptation among human populations, we find that most pathways globally enriched for signals of positive selection are either directly or indirectly involved in immune response. We also find evidence for long-distance genotypic linkage disequilibrium, suggesting functional epistatic interactions between members of the same pathway. Our results show that past interactions with pathogens have elicited widespread and coordinated genomic responses, and suggest that adaptation to pathogens can be considered as a primary example of polygenic selection.
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Because of its severity, it is agreed that infectious endocarditis should be prevented whenever possible. Determining adequate prophylactic measures involves establishing (a) the patients at risk, (b) the procedures that might provoke bacteraemia, (c) the most effective prophylactic regimen, and (d) a balance between the risks of side effects from prophylaxis and of developing infectious endocarditis. Patients at risk and procedures inducing bacteraemia have been identified by clinical studies. On the other hand, the efficacy of prophylactic antibiotics has been based on animal studies. Randomised, placebo-controlled studies do not exist in humans because they would require large patient numbers and would raise ethical issues due to the severity of the disease. Case-control studies have indicated that infectious endocarditis prophylaxis is effective, but prevents only a limited number of cases. Animal experiments have revealed several key issues for human application. First, antibiotics do not prevent the early stages of valve colonisation, but rather kill the microorganisms after their attachment to the cardiac lesions. Second, the duration of antibiotic presence in the serum is critical. Under experimental conditions, the drugs must remain above their minimal inhibitory concentration for the organisms for > or = 10 h, to allow time for bacterial clearance from the valves. Third, antibiotic-induced killing is not the only mechanism allowing bacterial clearance. Other factors, such as platelet microbicidal proteins, may act in concert with the drugs to sterilise the lesions. Recommendations for prophylaxis have recently been revised in Europe and the USA. New information has improved the definition of groups at risk. Since most cases of infectious endocarditis are not preceded by medical procedures, primary prevention of infectious endocarditis should target infected foci responsible for spontaneous bacteraemia (e.g. poor dental hygiene). The purpose of this article is to update the existing recommendations in Switzerland, under the perspective of changing epidemiology, the availability of new drugs, and harmonisation with recommendations in other countries.
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Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).
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Abnormal adipokine production, along with defective uptake and metabolism of glucose within adipocytes, contributes to insulin resistance and altered glucose homeostasis. Recent research has highlighted one of the mechanisms that accounts for impaired production of adiponectin (ADIPOQ) and adipocyte glucose uptake in obesity. In adipocytes of human obese subjects and mice fed with a high fat diet, the level of the inducible cAMP early repressor (ICER) is diminished. Reduction of ICER elevates the cAMP response element binding protein (CREB) activity, which in turn increases the repressor activating transcription factor 3. In fine, the cascade triggers reduction in the ADIPOQ and GLUT4 levels, which ultimately hampers insulin-mediated glucose uptake. The c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) interacting-protein 1, also called islet brain 1 (IB1), is a target of CREB/ICER that promotes JNK-mediated insulin resistance in adipocytes. A rise in IB1 and c-Jun levels accompanies the drop of ICER in white adipose tissues of obese mice when compared with mice fed with a chow diet. Other than the expression of ADIPOQ and glucose transport, decline in ICER expression might impact insulin signaling. Impairment of ICER is a critical issue that will need major consideration in future therapeutic purposes.
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BACKGROUND: The Foot and Ankle Ability Measure (FAAM) is a self reported questionnaire for patients with foot and ankle disorders available in English, German, and Persian. This study plans to translate the FAAM from English to French (FAAM-F) and assess the validity and reliability of this new version.METHODS: The FAAM-F Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and sports subscales were completed by 105 French-speaking patients (average age 50.5 years) presenting various chronic foot and ankle disorders. Convergent and divergent validity was assessed by Pearson's correlation coefficients between the FAAM-F subscales and the SF-36 scales: Physical Functioning (PF), Physical Component Summary (PCS), Mental Health (MH) and Mental Component Summary (MCS). Internal consistency was calculated by Cronbach's Alpha (CA). To assess test re-test reliability, 22 patients filled out the questionnaire a second time to estimate minimal detectable changes (MDC) and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC).RESULTS: Correlations for FAAM-F ADL subscale were 0.85 with PF, 0.81 with PCS, 0.26 with MH, 0.37 with MCS. Correlations for FAAM-F Sports subscale were 0.72 with PF, 0.72 with PCS, 0.21 with MH, 0.29 with MCS. CA estimates were 0.97 for both subscales. Respectively for the ADL and Sports subscales, ICC were 0.97 and 0.94, errors for a single measure were 8 and 10 points at 95% confidence and the MDC values at 95% confidence were 7 and 18 points.CONCLUSION: The FAAM-F is valid and reliable for the self-assessment of physical function in French-speaking patients with a wide range of chronic foot and ankle disorders.
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Après la votation fédérale demandant de prendre en compte les médecines complémentaires, un consensus a été recherché dans quatorze services et unités du Centre hospitalier universitaire vaudois (CHUV). Confrontés aux données de la littérature (Plus de 2000 publications en "Evidence-based complementary medicine" depuis 1998), les soignants étaient tous surpris par l'ampleur des résultats cliniques disponibles actuellement. Tous identifiaient un besoin en formation et en informations sur le sujet. Une prise de position officielle de l'institution était aussi souhaitée, instituant l'enseignement et la recherche sur les médecines complémentaires et assurant la production d'informations rigoureuses et pertinentes pour la clinique. [Abstract] While a popular vote supported a new article on complementary and alternative medicines (CAM) in the Swiss Constitution, this assessment in 14 wards of the University Hospital of Lausanne, Switzerland, attempted at answering the question: How can CAM use be better taken into account and patients informed with more rigor and respect for their choices? Confronted with a review of the literature (> 2000 publications in "Evidence-based cornplementary medicine" since 1998), respondents declared their ignorance of the clinical data presently available on CAM. All were in favour of more teaching and information on the subject, plus an official statement from the Hospital direction, ensuring production and diffusion of rigorous and cJinically significant information on CAM.
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Confronting a recently mated female with a strange male can induce a pregnancy block ('Bruce effect'). The physiology of this effect is well studied, but its functional significance is still not fully understood. The 'anticipated infanticide hypothesis' suggests that the pregnancy block serves to avoid the cost of embryogenesis and giving birth to offspring that are likely to be killed by a new territory holder. Some 'compatible-genes sexual selection hypotheses' suggest that the likelihood of a pregnancy block is also dependent on the female's perception of the stud's and the stimulus male's genetic quality. We used two inbred strains of mice (C57BL/6 and BALB/c) to test all possible combinations of female strain, stud strain, and stimulus strain under experimental conditions (N(total) = 241 mated females). As predicted from previous studies, we found increased rates of pregnancy blocks if stud and stimulus strains differed, and we found evidence for hybrid vigour in offspring of between-strain mating. Despite the observed heterosis, pregnancies of within-strain matings were not more likely to be blocked than pregnancies of between-strain matings. A power analysis revealed that if we missed an existing effect (type-II error), the effect must be very small. If a female gave birth, the number and weight of newborns were not significantly influenced by the stimulus males. In conclusion, we found no support for the 'compatible-genes sexual selection hypotheses'.
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BACKGROUND: Thyroid ectopy results from the failure of the thyroid precursor cells to migrate from the primordial pharynx to the anterior part of the neck. Most ectopic thyroids are revealed by congenital hypothyroidism and present as a single round mass at the base of the tongue, with no other thyroid tissue. However, some cases have dual ectopy, with part of the tissue having partially migrated. We hypothesized that this occurs more frequently than previously reported.¦METHODS: To determine the prevalence of dual ectopy, we reviewed the pertechnetate scintigraphies of 81 patients with congenital hypothyroidism from thyroid ectopy diagnosed between 2002 and 2011 at our institution.¦RESULTS: We report a series of seven cases (9%) of dual ectopy, representing an incidence ranging from 1:50,000 to 1:70,000.¦CONCLUSIONS: Almost one in 10 cases with congenital hypothyroidism due to thyroid ectopy has dual ectopy. This suggests that two populations of cells diverged at an early stage of development, which may arise from insufficient signaling gradients in surrounding tissues during early organogenesis or may indirectly support the polyclonal nature of the thyroid.
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Unlike classical theoretical expectations, our empirical study shows that financial transfers to decentralised governments increase local public expenditures much more than would be triggered by an equivalent rise in local income. This empirical evidence of the presence of a flypaper effect is achieved using panel data from 375 municipalities located in the Swiss canton of Vaud covering the period 1994 to 2005. During that time there was a major change in the financial equalisation scheme. Furthermore, our study confirms the analysis of the public choice theory: the effect depends partly on the degree of complexity of the municipal bureaucracy. These results show that local bureaucratic behaviour may impede the effectiveness of a financial equalisation scheme that aims to reduce disparities in local tax.
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Forty-two new apatite and zircon fission track ages are presented for samples from the Western Alps in southern Switzerland, northern Italy, and southeastern France. Measured ages plotted against assumed closure temperatures yield cooling patterns for the final cooling, uplift, and exhumation of the Western Alps. Similar fission track zircon ages in the Penninic Gran Paradiso massif, Dent Blanche nappe, Sesia-Lanzo Zone, and Ivrea Zone indicate cooling of all four units to approximately 225-degrees-C by 33 Ma. Differences in apatite ages reveal differential cooling of the four blocks between 33 Ma and the present. In the Sesia-Lanzo Zone, similarity of apatite ages regardless of elevation, together with near-volcanic confined fission track length patterns suggest rapid cooling and uplift at approximately 25 Ma compared with slow cooling of other Western Alps units around 12 Ma. Uplift is thus not continuous but episodic, often over a short time interval beyond the resolution of other methods. Such episodes of uplift, as revealed here in the Sesia-Lanzo Zone, may be the rule rather than the exception.