Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

Another way of thinking about ADHD: the predictive role of early attachment deprivation in adolescents' level of symptoms.

PURPOSE: Attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most frequent disorders in childhood and adolescence. Both neurocognitive and environmental factors have been related to ADHD. The current study contributes to the documentation of the predictive relation between early attachment deprivation and ADHD. METHOD: Data were collected from 641 adopted adolescents (53.2 % girls) aged 11-16 years in five countries, using the DSM oriented scale for ADHD of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) (Achenbach and Rescorla, Manual for the ASEBA school-age forms and profiles. University of Vermont, Research Center for Children, Youth and Families, Burlington, 2001). The influence of attachment deprivation on ADHD symptoms was initially tested taking into consideration several key variables that have been reported as influencing ADHD at the adoptee level (age, gender, length of time in the adoptive family, parents' educational level and marital status), and at the level of the country of origin and country of adoption (poverty, quality of health services and values). The analyses were computed using the multilevel modeling technique. RESULTS: The results showed that an increase in the level of ADHD symptoms was predicted by the duration of exposure to early attachment deprivation, estimated from the age of adoption, after controlling for the influence of adoptee and country variables. The effect of the age of adoption was also demonstrated to be specific to the level of ADHD symptoms in comparison to both the externalizing and internalizing behavior scales of the CBCL. CONCLUSION: Deprivation of stable and sensitive care in infancy may have long-lasting consequences for children's development.

Aphtes récidivants: comment faire face [How to cope with recurrent aphthous stomatitis].

Recurrent aphthous stomatitis (RAS) is the most common oral mucosa ailment. This condition is frequently considered as idiopathic due to the doubts about its etiology, probably related to a minor immunological dysregulation in a context of genetic predisposition. However, ulcers that resemble recurrent aphthous stomatitis in some respects can be found in systemic disorders that must be ruled out for the differential diagnosis of SAR, particularly when they appear after adolescence and/or when associated lesions exist out of the oral cavity. SAR management lies on the elimination of predisposing factors (drugs, oral trauma, food allergies...) and if needed, topical corticosteroids are the first choice regimen. More severe cases may require systemic regimens.

Réactualisation de la douzième conférence de consensus de la Société de réanimation de langue française (SRLF) : infections liées aux cathéters veineux centraux en réanimation [Updating of the 12th consensus conference of the Société de Réanimation de langue française (SRLF) : catheter related infections in Intensive Care unit]

Concerning catheter-related infections, many studies have been conducted until the last consensus conference of the Sociétéde réanimation de langue française (SRLF) in 1994. This text is the synthesis of the considerable amount of work performed by the experts of the society to review recent studies. The experts' texts as well as extensive bibliography are available at http://www.srlf.org.

Information and risk management during the first trimester care for pregnant women: Some reflections about the ethical challenges and the legal framework in Switzerland. [L'information et la gestion des risques dans le suivi de la grossesse lors du 1er trimestre : quelques réflexions sur le défi éthique et le cadre légal en Suisse.]

The progress in prenatal medicine raises complex questions with respect to the physician-patient relationship. The physician needs to reconcile medical aspects, ethical principles as well as judicial norms. Already, during the first trimester, the physician has to put into practice the schedule combining for each individual pregnancy physical, laboratory and other appropriate exams. Physicians are under the obligation to inform in a clear and comprehensive way without creating unnecessary anxiety for their patients. Legal requirements include informed consent, the respect for the patient's right to self-determination, and compliance with the Swiss federal law on genetic testing, especially with its articles on prenatal screening and diagnosis. This article discusses the complexity of obstetrical practice when it comes to delivering adequate information within the scope of ethical and legal requirements in Switzerland. L'évolution de la médecine prénatale soulève des enjeux complexes dans la relation médecin-patient. Il s'agit de concilier à la fois les aspects médicaux, les principes éthiques et les normes juridiques. Dès le premier trimestre de la grossesse le médecin doit poser le cadre du suivi et des examens appropriés pour chaque grossesse. Son devoir est d'informer de manière claire et précise sans inquiéter inutilement, en respectant l'exigence légale d'un consentement éclairé et plus largement le droit de la patiente à l'autodétermination ainsi que le cadre de la loi fédérale suisse sur l'analyse génétique humaine dans le domaine du dépistage et du diagnostic prénatal. Cet article discute de la complexité de l'information et de l'application des principes éthiques et légaux dans la pratique obstétricale en Suisse.

Exploratory survey about dietary supplement use: a hazardous and erratic way to improve one's health?

INTRODUCTION: Dietary supplement (DS) use increased rapidly in recent years. However, evidence of benefits of many DSs for healthy users is scarce and may not equate with known risks of overdose, drug interaction and recently discovered negative long-term effects. This exploratory study aimed to investigate the perceptions and motivations of DS users in Lausanne, Switzerland. METHOD: A convenience sample (n = 147) was recruited at the entrances of local sales points. Data were collected in on-site semistructured interviews that assessed dietary supplementation habits. RESULTS: The majority of DSs were all-in-one products, containing a mixture of minerals and vitamins, or products containing only minerals. Among the 147 users, 72 (49%) used one all-in-one product and 3 (2%) used two all-in-one products. Thirty-one (21%) consumers did not know for at least one product what the purpose of their DS use was. Seventy-five percent of participants thought that DS use presents no risk or nearly no risk. Only 49% of participants stated that their physicians were informed about their consumption. Although men searched more often for potential risks (p <0.001), they turned less frequently to health professionals to get this information (p = 0.007). DISCUSSION: As in other surveys performed elsewhere, our study shows that, in Lausanne (Switzerland), DSs are commonly used as mixed products. Risk perception seems generally low among DS users. Physicians should be trained to evaluate patients' perceived needs and DS consumption in order to provide good evidence-based information or to propose alternatives to DS use.

Safety concerns about CCR5 as an antiviral target.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Clinical trials of CCR5 antagonists attest to their efficacy and tolerance in HIV treatment. However, there has been debate on their long-term safety because of the role of CCR5 in innate immunity. This review highlights gaps in our understanding of epidemiology of infections that are modulated by CCR5, in particular, in HIV-infected individuals. RECENT FINDINGS: In the mouse model, CCR5 has a role in the response against pathogens as diverse as Toxoplama gondii, West Nile virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, herpes simplex virus, Trypanosoma cruzi, Cryptococcus neoformans, Chlamydia trachomatis, Listeria, and plasmodia. In human cohorts, individuals carrying the defective CCR5Delta32 allele present an increased susceptibility to flavivirus (West Nile virus and tickborne encephalitis virus). The selective pressures that led to the spread of loss-of-function CCR5 mutations in humans (CCR5Delta32), and in mangabeys (CCR5Delta24) are not understood. SUMMARY: The recent availability of CCR5 antagonists has raised concern that genetic, biological, or chemical CCR5 knockout, although beneficial against some pathogens (i.e. HIV), could be deleterious for other processes implicated in pathogen response. The consequences of long-term pharmaceutical intervention on CCR5 should be carefully assessed through rigorous postmarketing surveillance.

Tapping the innovation potential of corporate engagement with stakeholders

Summary This dissertation explores how stakeholder dialogue influences corporate processes, and speculates about the potential of this phenomenon - particularly with actors, like non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other representatives of civil society, which have received growing attention against a backdrop of increasing globalisation and which have often been cast in an adversarial light by firms - as a source of teaming and a spark for innovation in the firm. The study is set within the context of the introduction of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) in Europe. Its significance lies in the fact that scientific developments and new technologies are being generated at an unprecedented rate in an era where civil society is becoming more informed, more reflexive, and more active in facilitating or blocking such new developments, which could have the potential to trigger widespread changes in economies, attitudes, and lifestyles, and address global problems like poverty, hunger, climate change, and environmental degradation. In the 1990s, companies using biotechnology to develop and offer novel products began to experience increasing pressure from civil society to disclose information about the risks associated with the use of biotechnology and GMOs, in particular. Although no harmful effects for humans or the environment have been factually demonstrated even to date (2008), this technology remains highly-contested and its introduction in Europe catalysed major companies to invest significant financial and human resources in stakeholder dialogue. A relatively new phenomenon at the time, with little theoretical backing, dialogue was seen to reflect a move towards greater engagement with stakeholders, commonly defined as those "individuals or groups with which. business interacts who have a 'stake', or vested interest in the firm" (Carroll, 1993:22) with whom firms are seen to be inextricably embedded (Andriof & Waddock, 2002). Regarding the organisation of this dissertation, Chapter 1 (Introduction) describes the context of the study, elaborates its significance for academics and business practitioners as an empirical work embedded in a sector at the heart of the debate on corporate social responsibility (CSR). Chapter 2 (Literature Review) traces the roots and evolution of CSR, drawing on Stakeholder Theory, Institutional Theory, Resource Dependence Theory, and Organisational Learning to establish what has already been developed in the literature regarding the stakeholder concept, motivations for engagement with stakeholders, the corporate response to external constituencies, and outcomes for the firm in terms of organisational learning and change. I used this review of the literature to guide my inquiry and to develop the key constructs through which I viewed the empirical data that was gathered. In this respect, concepts related to how the firm views itself (as a victim, follower, leader), how stakeholders are viewed (as a source of pressure and/or threat; as an asset: current and future), corporate responses (in the form of buffering, bridging, boundary redefinition), and types of organisational teaming (single-loop, double-loop, triple-loop) and change (first order, second order, third order) were particularly important in building the key constructs of the conceptual model that emerged from the analysis of the data. Chapter 3 (Methodology) describes the methodology that was used to conduct the study, affirms the appropriateness of the case study method in addressing the research question, and describes the procedures for collecting and analysing the data. Data collection took place in two phases -extending from August 1999 to October 2000, and from May to December 2001, which functioned as `snapshots' in time of the three companies under study. The data was systematically analysed and coded using ATLAS/ti, a qualitative data analysis tool, which enabled me to sort, organise, and reduce the data into a manageable form. Chapter 4 (Data Analysis) contains the three cases that were developed (anonymised as Pioneer, Helvetica, and Viking). Each case is presented in its entirety (constituting a `within case' analysis), followed by a 'cross-case' analysis, backed up by extensive verbatim evidence. Chapter 5 presents the research findings, outlines the study's limitations, describes managerial implications, and offers suggestions for where more research could elaborate the conceptual model developed through this study, as well as suggestions for additional research in areas where managerial implications were outlined. References and Appendices are included at the end. This dissertation results in the construction and description of a conceptual model, grounded in the empirical data and tied to existing literature, which portrays a set of elements and relationships deemed important for understanding the impact of stakeholder engagement for firms in terms of organisational learning and change. This model suggests that corporate perceptions about the nature of stakeholder influence the perceived value of stakeholder contributions. When stakeholders are primarily viewed as a source of pressure or threat, firms tend to adopt a reactive/defensive posture in an effort to manage stakeholders and protect the firm from sources of outside pressure -behaviour consistent with Resource Dependence Theory, which suggests that firms try to get control over extemal threats by focussing on the relevant stakeholders on whom they depend for critical resources, and try to reverse the control potentially exerted by extemal constituencies by trying to influence and manipulate these valuable stakeholders. In situations where stakeholders are viewed as a current strategic asset, firms tend to adopt a proactive/offensive posture in an effort to tap stakeholder contributions and connect the organisation to its environment - behaviour consistent with Institutional Theory, which suggests that firms try to ensure the continuing license to operate by internalising external expectations. In instances where stakeholders are viewed as a source of future value, firms tend to adopt an interactive/innovative posture in an effort to reduce or widen the embedded system and bring stakeholders into systems of innovation and feedback -behaviour consistent with the literature on Organisational Learning, which suggests that firms can learn how to optimize their performance as they develop systems and structures that are more adaptable and responsive to change The conceptual model moreover suggests that the perceived value of stakeholder contribution drives corporate aims for engagement, which can be usefully categorised as dialogue intentions spanning a continuum running from low-level to high-level to very-high level. This study suggests that activities aimed at disarming critical stakeholders (`manipulation') providing guidance and correcting misinformation (`education'), being transparent about corporate activities and policies (`information'), alleviating stakeholder concerns (`placation'), and accessing stakeholder opinion ('consultation') represent low-level dialogue intentions and are experienced by stakeholders as asymmetrical, persuasive, compliance-gaining activities that are not in line with `true' dialogue. This study also finds evidence that activities aimed at redistributing power ('partnership'), involving stakeholders in internal corporate processes (`participation'), and demonstrating corporate responsibility (`stewardship') reflect high-level dialogue intentions. This study additionally finds evidence that building and sustaining high-quality, trusted relationships which can meaningfully influence organisational policies incline a firm towards the type of interactive, proactive processes that underpin the development of sustainable corporate strategies. Dialogue intentions are related to type of corporate response: low-level intentions can lead to buffering strategies; high-level intentions can underpin bridging strategies; very high-level intentions can incline a firm towards boundary redefinition. The nature of corporate response (which encapsulates a firm's posture towards stakeholders, demonstrated by the level of dialogue intention and the firm's strategy for dealing with stakeholders) favours the type of learning and change experienced by the organisation. This study indicates that buffering strategies, where the firm attempts to protect itself against external influences and cant' out its existing strategy, typically lead to single-loop learning, whereby the firm teams how to perform better within its existing paradigm and at most, improves the performance of the established system - an outcome associated with first-order change. Bridging responses, where the firm adapts organisational activities to meet external expectations, typically leads a firm to acquire new behavioural capacities characteristic of double-loop learning, whereby insights and understanding are uncovered that are fundamentally different from existing knowledge and where stakeholders are brought into problem-solving conversations that enable them to influence corporate decision-making to address shortcomings in the system - an outcome associated with second-order change. Boundary redefinition suggests that the firm engages in triple-loop learning, where the firm changes relations with stakeholders in profound ways, considers problems from a whole-system perspective, examining the deep structures that sustain the system, producing innovation to address chronic problems and develop new opportunities - an outcome associated with third-order change. This study supports earlier theoretical and empirical studies {e.g. Weick's (1979, 1985) work on self-enactment; Maitlis & Lawrence's (2007) and Maitlis' (2005) work and Weick et al's (2005) work on sensegiving and sensemaking in organisations; Brickson's (2005, 2007) and Scott & Lane's (2000) work on organisational identity orientation}, which indicate that corporate self-perception is a key underlying factor driving the dynamics of organisational teaming and change. Such theorizing has important implications for managerial practice; namely, that a company which perceives itself as a 'victim' may be highly inclined to view stakeholders as a source of negative influence, and would therefore be potentially unable to benefit from the positive influence of engagement. Such a selfperception can blind the firm from seeing stakeholders in a more positive, contributing light, which suggests that such firms may not be inclined to embrace external sources of innovation and teaming, as they are focussed on protecting the firm against disturbing environmental influences (through buffering), and remain more likely to perform better within an existing paradigm (single-loop teaming). By contrast, a company that perceives itself as a 'leader' may be highly inclined to view stakeholders as a source of positive influence. On the downside, such a firm might have difficulty distinguishing when stakeholder contributions are less pertinent as it is deliberately more open to elements in operating environment (including stakeholders) as potential sources of learning and change, as the firm is oriented towards creating space for fundamental change (through boundary redefinition), opening issues to entirely new ways of thinking and addressing issues from whole-system perspective. A significant implication of this study is that potentially only those companies who see themselves as a leader are ultimately able to tap the innovation potential of stakeholder dialogue.

Causal Warrant for Realism about Particle Physics

While scientific realism generally assumes that successful scientific explanations yield information about reality, realists also have to admit that not all information acquired in this way is equally well warranted. Some versions of scientific realism do this by saying that explanatory posits with which we have established some kind of causal contact are better warranted than those that merely appear in theoretical hypotheses. I first explicate this distinction by considering some general criteria that permit us to distinguish causal warrant from theoretical warrant. I then apply these criteria to a specific case from particle physics, claiming that scientific realism has to incorporate the distinction between causal and theoretical warrant if it is to be an adequate stance in the philosophy of particle physics.

From dialysis to transplantation, illness experience and patients' concerns about future: A longitudinal qualitative study

Background: Transplantation is the treatment of choice when compared to dialysis. Long-term evolution of patients is rarely comprehensively described. Thirty end-stage renal disease patient's experience of illness was explored from registration for transplantation until twenty-four months after transplantation. Methods: Longitudinal semi-structured interviews were conducted, and qualitative discourse analysis performed. Findings: Before transplantation loss of quality of life (QOL), emotional fragility related to dialysis constraints were reported, and increased with waiting-time. Six months after transplantation, recovered freedom was described but acute rejection, and life-dependency to immunosuppressants generated concerns. After twelve months, long-term survival of the graft, and possible return-to-dialysis were mentioned. After twenty months graft's dysfunction, co-morbidities, immunosuppressants side effects rose concerns even though QOL persisted. Most patients report positive transformations after transplantation, which are related to graft survival and limited co-morbidities. Discussion: As time passes, patients deal with changing illness constraints, and contemplate with anxiety possible new return to dialysis and/or transplantation.