Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics.

Cardiovascular risk assessment might be improved with the addition of emerging, new tests derived from atherosclerosis imaging, laboratory tests or functional tests. This article reviews relative risk, odds ratios, receiver-operating curves, posttest risk calculations based on likelihood ratios, the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination. This serves to determine whether a new test has an added clinical value on top of conventional risk testing and how this can be verified statistically. Two clinically meaningful examples serve to illustrate novel approaches. This work serves as a review and basic work for the development of new guidelines on cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account emerging tests, to be proposed by members of the 'Taskforce on Vascular Risk Prediction' under the auspices of the Working Group 'Swiss Atherosclerosis' of the Swiss Society of Cardiology in the future.

Characteristics and early and long-term outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke and low ejection fraction.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the clinical characteristics of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) ≤ 35% and investigated the association of low EF with early and long-term outcome. METHODS: A total of 2439 patients of the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) were selected. Demographics, risk factors, pre-stroke treatment, and clinical, radiological and metabolic variables in patients with and without low EF were compared. Functional independence (modified Rankin Score ≤ 2) and mortality were recorded 1 week up to 12 months from admission. RESULTS: Low EF patients (n=119) were more commonly men, older, had higher rates of coronary artery disease and atrial fibrillation (AF), and more frequent pretreatment with anticoagulants, antiplatelets and antihypertensive agents. On admission, they presented with higher stroke severity and had lower values of systolic blood pressure, higher heart rate, and worse estimated glomerular filtration rate. Stroke-related disability and death rates were higher in low EF patients during follow-up (19.5% vs. 7.8% at 1 week, and 36.1% vs. 16.5% at 12 months). Increasing age, stroke severity, and AF were independent predictors of one-year mortality in these patients while prior use of statins had a favorable effect on early mortality. CONCLUSIONS: AIS in patients with low EF is associated with older age, cardiac comorbidities, and more severe clinical presentation. Low EF can identify a subset of AIS patients at high risk of early and long-term functional disability and mortality.

Acute opiate overdose: characteristics of 190 consecutive cases.

AIMS: To characterize the population of drug users consulting the Emergency Room (ER) of a university hospital with acute opiate overdose (AOO) and to assess rate of referral to specialized treatment programme. DESIGN: Survey of a 12-month sample of AOO patients. MEASUREMENTS: Medical and psychosocial features of the drug users, details of emergency treatment and referral by a mobile resuscitation team (SMUR) and the ER of our hospital (CHUV-Lausanne, Switzerland). In addition fatal AOO cases were collected by the Institute of Forensic Medicine (IFM) during the same period. FINDINGS: One hundred and eighty-four cases of AOO (134 patients) were treated. The files of the IFM detailed six additional deceased cases. This population of drug users was characterized by an over-representation of men (73%), by young age (27.4 years), by a high rate of multi-drugs use (90%) and by a high rate of multiple previous overdoses (2.6). Average length of stay was 20.1 hours but 41% of cases stayed less than 8 hours. Only one patient was readmitted within an 8-hour period. When discharged, 78% returned home. Unexpectedly, 67% of patients were not referred to any therapeutic programme for drug addiction. CONCLUSION: This study shows the low mortality of AOO when treated but also demonstrates the need to improve psychosocial evaluation and referral of drug addicts admitted with AOO.

Value of positron emission tomography in full-thickness chest wall resections for malignancies.

Preoperative imaging for resection of chest wall malignancies is generally performed by computed tomography (CT). We evaluated the role of (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in planning full-thickness chest wall resections for malignancies. We retrospectively included 18 consecutive patients operated from 2004 to 2006 at our institution. Tumor extent was measured by CT and PET, using the two largest perpendicular tumor extensions in the chest wall plane to compute the tumor surface assuming an elliptical shape. Imaging measurements were compared to histopathology assessment of tumor borders. CT assessment consistently overestimated the tumor size as compared to PET (+64% vs. +1%, P<0.001). Moreover, PET was significantly better than CT at defining the size of lesions >24 cm(2) corresponding to a mean diameter >5.5 cm or an ellipse of >4 cm x 7.6 cm (positive predictive value 80% vs. 44% and specificity 93% vs. 64%, respectively). Metabolic PET imaging was superior to CT for defining the extent of chest wall tumors, particularly for tumors with a diameter >5.5 cm. PET can complement CT in planning full-thickness chest wall resection for malignancies, but its true value remains to be determined in larger, prospective studies.

Valganciclovir in adult solid organ transplant recipients: pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics and clinical interpretation of plasma concentration measurements.

Valganciclovir and ganciclovir are widely used for the prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in solid organ transplant recipients, with a major impact on patients' morbidity and mortality. Oral valganciclovir, the ester prodrug of ganciclovir, has been developed to enhance the oral bioavailability of ganciclovir. It crosses the gastrointestinal barrier through peptide transporters and is then hydrolysed into ganciclovir. This review aims to describe the current knowledge of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics of this agent, and to address the issue of therapeutic drug monitoring. Based on currently available literature, ganciclovir pharmacokinetics in adult solid organ transplant recipients receiving oral valganciclovir are characterized by bioavailability of 66 +/- 10% (mean +/- SD), a maximum plasma concentration of 3.1 +/- 0.8 mg/L after a dose of 450 mg and of 6.6 +/- 1.9 mg/L after a dose of 900 mg, a time to reach the maximum plasma concentration of 3.0 +/- 1.0 hours, area under the plasma concentration-time curve values of 29.1 +/- 5.3 mg.h/L and 51.9 +/- 18.3 mg.h/L (after 450 mg and 900 mg, respectively), apparent clearance of 12.4 +/- 3.8 L/h, an elimination half-life of 5.3 +/- 1.5 hours and an apparent terminal volume of distribution of 101 +/- 36 L. The apparent clearance is highly correlated with renal function, hence the dosage needs to be adjusted in proportion to the glomerular filtration rate. Unexplained interpatient variability is limited (18% in apparent clearance and 28% in the apparent central volume of distribution). There is no indication of erratic or limited absorption in given subgroups of patients; however, this may be of concern in patients with severe malabsorption. The in vitro pharmacodynamics of ganciclovir reveal a mean concentration producing 50% inhibition (IC(50)) among CMV clinical strains of 0.7 mg/L (range 0.2-1.9 mg/L). Systemic exposure of ganciclovir appears to be moderately correlated with clinical antiviral activity and haematotoxicity during CMV prophylaxis in high-risk transplant recipients. Low ganciclovir plasma concentrations have been associated with treatment failure and high concentrations with haematotoxicity and neurotoxicity, but no formal therapeutic or toxic ranges have been validated. The pharmacokinetic parameters of ganciclovir after valganciclovir administration (bioavailability, apparent clearance and volume of distribution) are fairly predictable in adult transplant patients, with little interpatient variability beyond the effect of renal function and bodyweight. Thus ganciclovir exposure can probably be controlled with sufficient accuracy by thorough valganciclovir dosage adjustment according to patient characteristics. In addition, the therapeutic margin of ganciclovir is loosely defined. The usefulness of systematic therapeutic drug monitoring in adult transplant patients therefore appears questionable; however, studies are still needed to extend knowledge to particular subgroups of patients or dosage regimens.

Abdominal infections in the intensive care unit: characteristics, treatment and determinants of outcome.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal infections are frequent causes of sepsis and septic shock in the intensive care unit (ICU) and are associated with adverse outcomes. We analyzed the characteristics, treatments and outcome of ICU patients with abdominal infections using data extracted from a one-day point prevalence study, the Extended Prevalence of Infection in the ICU (EPIC) II. METHODS: EPIC II included 13,796 adult patients from 1,265 ICUs in 75 countries. Infection was defined using the International Sepsis Forum criteria. Microbiological analyses were performed locally. Participating ICUs provided patient follow-up until hospital discharge or for 60 days. RESULTS: Of the 7,087 infected patients, 1,392 (19.6%) had an abdominal infection on the study day (60% male, mean age 62 ± 16 years, SAPS II score 39 ± 16, SOFA score 7.6 ± 4.6). Microbiological cultures were positive in 931 (67%) patients, most commonly Gram-negative bacteria (48.0%). Antibiotics were administered to 1366 (98.1%) patients. Patients who had been in the ICU for ≤ 2 days prior to the study day had more Escherichia coli, methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus and anaerobic isolates, and fewer enterococci than patients who had been in the ICU longer. ICU and hospital mortality rates were 29.4% and 36.3%, respectively. ICU mortality was higher in patients with abdominal infections than in those with other infections (29.4% vs. 24.4%, p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, hematological malignancy, mechanical ventilation, cirrhosis, need for renal replacement therapy and SAPS II score were independently associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The characteristics, microbiology and antibiotic treatment of abdominal infections in critically ill patients are diverse. Mortality in patients with isolated abdominal infections was higher than in those who had other infections.

Impact of controlled changes in grain size and pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization response of "proxies" of saturated alluvial sediments

Understanding the influence of pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization (SIP) response is critical for establishing relationships between the electrical and hydrological properties of surficial unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, which host the bulk of the world's readily accessible groundwater resources. Here, we present the results of laboratory SIP measurements on industrial-grade, saturated quartz samples with granulometric characteristics ranging from fine sand to fine gravel, which can be regarded as proxies for widespread alluvial deposits. We altered the pore space characteristics by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples. In general, the results indicate a clear connection between the SIP response and the granulometric as well as pore space characteristics. In particular, we observe a systematic correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the relaxation time of the Cole-Cole model describing the observed SIP effect for the entire range of considered grain sizes. The results do, however, also indicate that the detailed nature of these relations depends strongly on variations in the pore space characteristics, such as, for example, the degree of compaction. The results of this study underline the complexity of the origin of the SIP signal as well as the difficulty to relate it to a single structural factor of a studied sample, and hence raise some fundamental questions with regard to the practical use of SIP measurements as site- and/or sample-independent predictors of the hydraulic conductivity.

Cardiovascular Pathology. 004. Pathomorphological and CT-angiographical characteristics of coronary atherosclerotic plaques in cases of sudden cardiac death

Objective. The goal of this study was to present the pathological and radiological patterns of "vulnerable" atherosclerotic plaques in cases of sudden cardiac death. Method. This retrospective study was performed on forensic cases for which the cause of death was attributed to coronary artery disease. A complete autopsy was performed in all cases, along with either post-mortem CT-angiography, toxicological analyses and/or biochemistry. Results. 89 cases were selected (mean age 55±11.6 years; 75 men and 14 women). In 96.6% of cases a CT-angiography was performed. Acute coronary lesions were found in 60 cases (mean age 53±11.1 years), which included plaque erosion in 26 cases (mean age 47±8.3 years) and ruptures or intraplaque hemorrhage in 33 cases (mean age 58±10.4 years). Erosions were most frequently found in the left ascending artery (61.5 %), while only 36% of ruptures were observed in this artery. Chronic coronary pathology was described in 30 cases (mean age 58±10.4 years). CT-angiographies performed prior to the autopsy enabled an initial evaluation of coronary artery perfusion. Conclusion. In the face of decreasing clinical autopsy rates, postmortem studies on forensic autopsies, including modern radiological examinations, allow for a more thorough understanding of the clinical picture of disease which can result in sudden cardiac death.

Effects of muscle fibre shortening on the characteristics of surface motor unit potentials.

Traditionally, studies dealing with muscle shortening have concentrated on assessing its impact on conduction velocity, and to this end, electrodes have been located between the end-plate and tendon regions. Possible morphologic changes in surface motor unit potentials (MUPs) as a result of muscle shortening have not, as yet, been evaluated or characterized. Using a convolutional MUP model, we investigated the effects of muscle shortening on the shape, amplitude, and duration characteristics of MUPs for different electrode positions relative to the fibre-tendon junction and for different depths of the MU in the muscle (MU-to-electrode distance). It was found that the effects of muscle shortening on MUP morphology depended not only on whether the electrodes were between the end-plate and the tendon junction or beyond the tendon junction, but also on the specific distance to this junction. When the electrodes lie between the end-plate and tendon junction, it was found that (1) the muscle shortening effect is not important for superficial MUs, (2) the sensitivity of MUP amplitude to muscle shortening increases with MU-to-electrode distance, and (3) the amplitude of the MUP negative phase is not affected by muscle shortening. This study provides a basis for the interpretation of the changes in MUP characteristics in experiments where both physiological and geometrical aspects of the muscle are varied.

Stimulus-induced rhythmic, periodic or ictal discharges (SIRPIDs) in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest: Characteristics and prognostic value.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the prevalence of stimulus-induced rhythmic, periodic or ictal discharges (SIRPIDs) in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA) and therapeutic hypothermia (TH) and to examine their potential association with outcome. METHODS: We studied our prospective cohort of adult survivors of CA treated with TH, assessing SIRPIDs occurrence and their association with 3-month outcome. Only univariated analyses were performed. RESULTS: 105 patients with coma after CA who underwent electroencephalogram (EEG) during TH and normothermia (NT) were studied. Fifty-nine patients (56%) survived, and 48 (46%) had good neurological recovery. The prevalence of SIRPIDs was 13.3% (14/105 patients), of whom 6 occurred during TH (all died), and 8 in NT (3 survived, 1 with good neurological outcome); none had SIRPIDs at both time-points. SIRPIDs were associated with discontinuous or non-reactive EEG background and were a robustly related to poor neurological outcome (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: This small series provides preliminary univariate evidence that in patients with coma after CA, SIRPIDs are associated with poor outcome, particularly when occurring during in therapeutic hypothermia. However, survival with good neurological recovery may be observed when SIRPIDs arise in the post-rewarming normothermic phase. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides clinicians with new information regarding the SIRPIDs prognostic role in patients with coma after cardiac arrest.

Association between substance use and psychosocial characteristics among adolescents of the Seychelles.

BACKGROUND: We examined the associations between substance use (cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking, and cannabis use) and psychosocial characteristics at the individual and family levels among adolescents of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the African region. METHODS: A school survey was conducted in a representative sample of 1432 students aged 11-17 years from all secondary schools. Data came from a self-administered anonymous questionnaire conducted along a standard methodology (Global School-based Health Survey, GSHS). Risk behaviors and psychosocial characteristics were dichotomized. Association analyses were adjusted for a possible classroom effect. RESULTS: The prevalence of cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking and cannabis use was higher in boys than in girls and increased with age. Age-adjusted and multivariate analyses showed that several individual level characteristics (e.g. suicidal ideation and truancy) and family level characteristics (e.g. poor parental monitoring) were associated with substance use among students. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that health promotion programs should simultaneously address multiple risk behaviors and take into account a wide range of psychosocial characteristics of the students at the individual and family levels.

Characteristics of patients with chronic hepatitis C who develop hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most frequent form of primary liver cancer and chronic infection with hepatitis C virus is one of the main risk factors for HCC. This study analyses the characteristics of the patients with chronic hepatitis C participating in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study who developed HCC. METHODS: Analysis of the database of the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, a multicentre study that is being carried out in eight major Swiss hospitals since the year 2000. Patients with chronic hepatitis C and HCC were regrouped and compared to the patients without HCC. RESULTS: Among the 3,390 patients of the cohort, 130 developed an HCC. Age was one of the determining factors. Cirrhosis and its complications ascites and porto-systemic encephalopathy were associated with HCC. Males presented a higher risk for HCC than females. Alcohol consumption was associated with HCC. Diabetes mellitus was an important risk factor, especially in patients with low fibrosis. Patients with Hepatitis C genotype 2 had significantly less HCC than patients with other genotypes. A low socioeconomic status (income, education, profession) was associated with HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Beside the expected characteristics (age, gender, cirrhosis, alcohol), these data stress the role of diabetes mellitus and reveal the importance of low socioeconomic status as a risk factor for HCC in Swiss patients infected with hepatitis C virus. This vulnerable population should be closely monitored.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital : predictive value of patient and process characteristics

RESUME: Introduction L'objectif de cette étude prospective de cohorte était d'estimer l'efficacité d'un processus de prise en charge standardisé de patients dépendants de l'alcool dans le contexte d'un hôpital universitaire de soins généraux. Ce modèle de prise en charge comprenait une évaluation multidisciplinaire puis des propositions de traitements individualisées et spécifiques (« projet thérapeutique »). Patients et méthode 165 patients alcoolo-dépendants furent recrutés dans différents services de l'hôpital universitaire, y compris la policlinique de médecine. Ils furent dans un premier temps évalués par une équipe multidisciplinaire (médecin interniste, psychiatre, assistant social), puis un projet thérapeutique spécialisé et individualisé leur fut proposé lors d'une rencontre réunissant le patient et l'équipe. Tous les patients éligibles acceptant de participer à l'étude (n=68) furent interrogés au moment de l'inclusion puis 2 et 6 mois plus tard par une psychologue. Des informations standardisées furent recueillies sur les caractéristiques des patients, le processus de prise en charge et l'évolution à 6 mois. Les critères de succès utilisés à 6 mois furent: l'adhérence au traitement proposé et l'abstinence d'alcool. Résultats Lors de l'évaluation à 6 mois, 43% des patients étaient toujours en traitement et 28% étaient abstinents. Les variables prédictrices de succès parmi les caractéristiques des patients étaient un âge de plus de 45 ans, ne pas vivre seul, avoir un travail et être motivé pour un traitement (RAATE-A <18). Pour les variables dépendantes du processus de prise en charge, un sevrage complet de l'alcool lors de la rencontre multidisciplinaire ainsi que la présence de tous les membres de l'équipe à cette réunion étaient des facteurs associés au succès. Conclusion L'efficacité de ce modèle d'intervention pour patients dépendants de l'alcool en hôpital de soins généraux s'est montrée satisfaisante, en particulier pour le critère de succès adhérence au traitement. Des variables associées au succès ou à l'échec à 6 mois ont pu être mises en évidence, permettant d'identifier des populations de patients évoluant différemment. Des stratégies de prise en charge tenant compte de ces éléments pourraient donc être développées, permettant de proposer des traitements plus adaptés ainsi qu'une meilleure rétention des patients alcooliques dans les programmes thérapeutiques. ABSTRACT. To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence, alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43% for treatment adherence and 28% for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score < 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow the identification of subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.