Estimation of jump-diffusion processes via empirical characteristic functions

Preface The starting point for this work and eventually the subject of the whole thesis was the question: how to estimate parameters of the affine stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. These models are very important for contingent claim pricing. Their major advantage, availability T of analytical solutions for characteristic functions, made them the models of choice for many theoretical constructions and practical applications. At the same time, estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models is not a straightforward task. The problem is coming from the variance process, which is non-observable. There are several estimation methodologies that deal with estimation problems of latent variables. One appeared to be particularly interesting. It proposes the estimator that in contrast to the other methods requires neither discretization nor simulation of the process: the Continuous Empirical Characteristic function estimator (EGF) based on the unconditional characteristic function. However, the procedure was derived only for the stochastic volatility models without jumps. Thus, it has become the subject of my research. This thesis consists of three parts. Each one is written as independent and self contained article. At the same time, questions that are answered by the second and third parts of this Work arise naturally from the issues investigated and results obtained in the first one. The first chapter is the theoretical foundation of the thesis. It proposes an estimation procedure for the stochastic volatility models with jumps both in the asset price and variance processes. The estimation procedure is based on the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic process. The major analytical result of this part as well as of the whole thesis is the closed form expression for the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. The empirical part of the chapter suggests that besides a stochastic volatility, jumps both in the mean and the volatility equation are relevant for modelling returns of the S&P500 index, which has been chosen as a general representative of the stock asset class. Hence, the next question is: what jump process to use to model returns of the S&P500. The decision about the jump process in the framework of the affine jump- diffusion models boils down to defining the intensity of the compound Poisson process, a constant or some function of state variables, and to choosing the distribution of the jump size. While the jump in the variance process is usually assumed to be exponential, there are at least three distributions of the jump size which are currently used for the asset log-prices: normal, exponential and double exponential. The second part of this thesis shows that normal jumps in the asset log-returns should be used if we are to model S&P500 index by a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model. This is a surprising result. Exponential distribution has fatter tails and for this reason either exponential or double exponential jump size was expected to provide the best it of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models to the data. The idea of testing the efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator on the simulated data has already appeared when the first estimation results of the first chapter were obtained. In the absence of a benchmark or any ground for comparison it is unreasonable to be sure that our parameter estimates and the true parameters of the models coincide. The conclusion of the second chapter provides one more reason to do that kind of test. Thus, the third part of this thesis concentrates on the estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump- diffusion models on the basis of the asset price time-series simulated from various "true" parameter sets. The goal is to show that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint unconditional characteristic function is capable of finding the true parameters. And, the third chapter proves that our estimator indeed has the ability to do so. Once it is clear that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the unconditional characteristic function is working, the next question does not wait to appear. The question is whether the computation effort can be reduced without affecting the efficiency of the estimator, or whether the efficiency of the estimator can be improved without dramatically increasing the computational burden. The efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator depends on the number of dimensions of the joint unconditional characteristic function which is used for its construction. Theoretically, the more dimensions there are, the more efficient is the estimation procedure. In practice, however, this relationship is not so straightforward due to the increasing computational difficulties. The second chapter, for example, in addition to the choice of the jump process, discusses the possibility of using the marginal, i.e. one-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function in the estimation instead of the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function. As result, the preference for one or the other depends on the model to be estimated. Thus, the computational effort can be reduced in some cases without affecting the efficiency of the estimator. The improvement of the estimator s efficiency by increasing its dimensionality faces more difficulties. The third chapter of this thesis, in addition to what was discussed above, compares the performance of the estimators with bi- and three-dimensional unconditional characteristic functions on the simulated data. It shows that the theoretical efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator based on the three-dimensional unconditional characteristic function is not attainable in practice, at least for the moment, due to the limitations on the computer power and optimization toolboxes available to the general public. Thus, the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function has all the reasons to exist and to be used for the estimation of parameters of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models.

The role of oxidative stress during inflammatory processes.

Abstract The production of various reactive oxidant species in excess of endogenous antioxidant defense mechanisms promotes the development of a state of oxidative stress, with significant biological consequences. In recent years, evidence has emerged that oxidative stress plays a crucial role in the development and perpetuation of inflammation, and thus contributes to the pathophysiology of a number of debilitating illnesses, such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer, or neurodegenerative processes. Oxidants affect all stages of the inflammatory response, including the release by damaged tissues of molecules acting as endogenous danger signals, their sensing by innate immune receptors from the Toll-like (TLRs) and the NOD-like (NLRs) families, and the activation of signaling pathways initiating the adaptive cellular response to such signals. In this article, after summarizing the basic aspects of redox biology and inflammation, we review in detail the current knowledge on the fundamental connections between oxidative stress and inflammatory processes, with a special emphasis on the danger molecule high-mobility group box-1, the TLRs, the NLRP-3 receptor, and the inflammasome, as well as the transcription factor nuclear factor-κB.

Geochemical and H-O-Sr-Nd isotope evidence for magmatic processes and meteoric-water interactions in the basal complex of La Gomera, Canary Islands

The plutonic rocks of the Basal Complex of La Gomera, Canary Islands, Spain, were studied by means of major and trace element contents and by H-O-Sr-Nd isotope compositions in order to distinguish primary magmatic characteristics and late-stage alteration products. Deciphering the effects of alteration allowed us to determine primary, plume-related compositions that indicated D- and (18)O-depletion relative to normal upper mantle, supporting the conclusions of earlier studies on the plutonic rocks of Fuerteventura and La Palma. Late-stage alteration took place during the formation of the intrusive series induced by interaction with meteoric water. Inferred isotopic compositions of the meteoric water indicate that the water infiltrated into the rock edifice at a height of about 1500 m above sea level, suggesting the existence of a subaerial volcano which was active during the intrusive activity and that it has been either distroyed or remain buried by later volcanic and landslide events.

Rapid fluidic exchange microsystem for recording of fast ion channel kinetics in Xenopus oocytes.

We present a new lab-on-a-chip system for electrophysiological measurements on Xenopus oocytes. Xenopus oocytes are widely used host cells in the field of pharmacological studies and drug development. We developed a novel non-invasive technique using immobilized non-devitellinized cells that replaces the traditional "two-electrode voltage-clamp" (TEVC) method. In particular, rapid fluidic exchange was implemented on-chip to allow recording of fast kinetic events of exogenous ion channels expressed in the cell membrane. Reducing fluidic exchange times of extracellular reagent solutions is a great challenge with these large millimetre-sized cells. Fluidic switching is obtained by shifting the laminar flow interface in a perfusion channel under the cell by means of integrated poly-dimethylsiloxane (PDMS) microvalves. Reagent solution exchange times down to 20 ms have been achieved. An on-chip purging system allows to perform complex pharmacological protocols, making the system suitable for screening of ion channel ligand libraries. The performance of the integrated rapid fluidic exchange system was demonstrated by investigating the self-inhibition of human epithelial sodium channels (ENaC). Our results show that the response time of this ion channel to a specific reactant is about an order of magnitude faster than could be estimated with the traditional TEVC technique.

CT dose optimization when changing to CT multi-detector row technology

The purpose of this article was to review the strategies to control patient dose in adult and pediatric computed tomography (CT), taking into account the change of technology from single-detector row CT to multi-detector row CT. First the relationships between computed tomography dose index, dose length product, and effective dose in adult and pediatric CT are revised, along with the diagnostic reference level concept. Then the effect of image noise as a function of volume computed tomography dose index, reconstructed slice thickness, and the size of the patient are described. Finally, the potential of tube current modulation CT is discussed.

Resting-State Functional Connectivity Emerges from Structurally and Dynamically Shaped Slow Linear Fluctuations.

Brain fluctuations at rest are not random but are structured in spatial patterns of correlated activity across different brain areas. The question of how resting-state functional connectivity (FC) emerges from the brain's anatomical connections has motivated several experimental and computational studies to understand structure-function relationships. However, the mechanistic origin of resting state is obscured by large-scale models' complexity, and a close structure-function relation is still an open problem. Thus, a realistic but simple enough description of relevant brain dynamics is needed. Here, we derived a dynamic mean field model that consistently summarizes the realistic dynamics of a detailed spiking and conductance-based synaptic large-scale network, in which connectivity is constrained by diffusion imaging data from human subjects. The dynamic mean field approximates the ensemble dynamics, whose temporal evolution is dominated by the longest time scale of the system. With this reduction, we demonstrated that FC emerges as structured linear fluctuations around a stable low firing activity state close to destabilization. Moreover, the model can be further and crucially simplified into a set of motion equations for statistical moments, providing a direct analytical link between anatomical structure, neural network dynamics, and FC. Our study suggests that FC arises from noise propagation and dynamical slowing down of fluctuations in an anatomically constrained dynamical system. Altogether, the reduction from spiking models to statistical moments presented here provides a new framework to explicitly understand the building up of FC through neuronal dynamics underpinned by anatomical connections and to drive hypotheses in task-evoked studies and for clinical applications.

Unravelling the interaction between tectonic and sedimentary processes during lithospheric thinning in the Alpine Tethys margins

The discovery of exhumed continental mantle and hyper-extended crust in present-day magma-poor rifted margins is at the origin of a paradigm shift within the research field of deep-water rifted margins. It opened new questions about the strain history of rifted margins and the nature and composition of sedimentary, crustal and mantle rocks in rifted margins. Thanks to the benefit of more than one century of work in the Alps and access to world-class outcrops preserving the primary relationships between sediments and crustal and mantle rocks from the fossil Alpine Tethys margins, it is possible to link the subsidence history and syn-rift sedimentary evolution with the strain distribution observed in the crust and mantle rocks exposed in the distal rifted margins. In this paper, we will focus on the transition from early to late rifting that is associated with considerable crustal thinning and a reorganization of the rift system. Crustal thinning is at the origin of a major change in the style of deformation from high-angle to low-angle normal faulting which controls basin-architecture, sedimentary sources and processes and the nature of basement rocks exhumed along the detachment faults in the distal margin. Stratigraphic and isotopic ages indicate that this major change occurred in late Sinemurian time, involving a shift of the syn-rift sedimentation toward the distal domain associated with a major reorganization of the crustal structure with exhumation of lower and middle crust. These changes may be triggered by mantle processes, as indicated by the infiltration of MOR-type magmas in the lithospheric mantle, and the uplift of the Brianconnais domain. Thinning and exhumation of the crust and lithosphere also resulted in the creation of new paleogeographic domains, the Proto Valais and Liguria-Piemonte domains. These basins show a complex, 3D temporal and spatial evolution that might have evolved, at least in the case of the Liguria-Piemonte basin, in the formation of an embryonic oceanic crust. The re-interpretation of the rift evolution and the architecture of the distal rifted margins in the Alps have important implications for the understanding of rifted margins worldwide, but also for the paleogeographic reconstruction of the Alpine domain and its subsequent Alpine compressional overprint.

Weakening processes in thrust faults: insights from the Monte Perdido thrust fault (southern Pyrenees, Spain)

The Monte Perdido thrust fault (southern Pyrenees) consists of a 6-m-thick interval of intensely deformed clay-bearing rocks. The fault zone is affected by a pervasive pressure solution seam and numerous shear surfaces. Calcite extensional-shear veins are present along the shear surfaces. The angular relationships between the two structures indicate that shear surfaces developed at a high angle (70°) to the local principal maximum stress axis r1. Two main stages of deformation are present. The first stage corresponds to the development of calcite shear veins by a combination of shear surface reactivation and extensional mode I rupture. The second stage of deformation corresponds to chlorite precipitation along the previously reactivated shear surfaces. The pore fluid factor k computed for the two deformation episodes indicates high fluid pressures during the Monte Perdido thrust activity. During the first stage of deformation, the reactivation of the shear surface was facilitated by a suprahydrostatic fluid pressure with a pore fluid factor kv equal to 0.89. For the second stage, the fluid pressure remained still high (with a k value ranging between 0.77 and 0.84) even with the presence of weak chlorite along the shear surfaces. Furthermore, evidence of hydrostatic fluid pressure during calcite cement precipitation supports that incremental shear surface reactivations are correlated with cyclic fluid pressure fluctuations consis- tent with a fault-valve model.

Differential phosphorylation of tau proteins during kitten brain development and Alzheimer's disease.

Differential distribution and phosphorylation of tau proteins were studied in developing kitten brain by using several antibodies, and was compared to phosphorylation in Alzheimer's disease. Several antibodies demonstrated the presence of phosphorylated tau proteins during kitten brain development and identified pathological structures in human brain tissue. Antibody AD2, recognized tau in kittens and adult cats, but reacted in Alzheimer's tissue only with a pathological tau form. Antibody AT8 was prominent in developing kitten neurons and was found in axons and dendrites. After the first postnatal month this phosphorylation type disappeared from axons. Furthermore, dephosphorylation of kitten tau with alkaline phosphatase abolished immunoreactivity of AT8, but not that of AD2, pointing to a protection of the AD2 epitope in cats. Tau proteins during early cat brain development are phosphorylated at several sites that are also phosphorylated in paired helical filaments during Alzheimer's disease. In either event, phosphorylation of tau may play a crucial role to modulate microtubule dynamics, contributing to increased microtubule instability and promoting growth of processes during neuronal development or changing dynamic properties of the cytoskeleton and contributing to the formation of pathological structures in neurodegenerative diseases.

Beyond the 'dyad': a qualitative re-evaluation of the changing clinical consultation.

OBJECTIVE: To identify characteristics of consultations that do not conform to the traditionally understood communication 'dyad', in order to highlight implications for medical education and develop a reflective 'toolkit' for use by medical practitioners and educators in the analysis of consultations. DESIGN: A series of interdisciplinary research workshops spanning 12 months explored the social impact of globalisation and computerisation on the clinical consultation, focusing specifically on contemporary challenges to the clinician-patient dyad. Researchers presented detailed case studies of consultations, taken from their recent research projects. Drawing on concepts from applied sociolinguistics, further analysis of selected case studies prompted the identification of key emergent themes. SETTING: University departments in the UK and Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Six researchers with backgrounds in medicine, applied linguistics, sociolinguistics and medical education. One workshop was also attended by PhD students conducting research on healthcare interactions. RESULTS: The contemporary consultation is characterised by a multiplicity of voices. Incorporation of additional voices in the consultation creates new forms of order (and disorder) in the interaction. The roles 'clinician' and 'patient' are blurred as they become increasingly distributed between different participants. These new consultation arrangements make new demands on clinicians, which lie beyond the scope of most educational programmes for clinical communication. CONCLUSIONS: The consultation is changing. Traditional consultation models that assume a 'dyadic' consultation do not adequately incorporate the realities of many contemporary consultations. A paradox emerges between the need to manage consultations in a 'super-diverse' multilingual society, while also attending to increasing requirements for standardised protocol-driven approaches to care prompted by computer use. The tension between standardisation and flexibility requires addressing in educational contexts. Drawing on concepts from applied sociolinguistics and the findings of these research observations, the authors offer a reflective 'toolkit' of questions to ask of the consultation in the context of enquiry-based learning.

Trace element partitioning in HP-LT metamorphic assemblages during subduction-related metamorphism, Ile de Groix, France: a detailed LA-ICPMS study

Devolatilization reactions and subsequent transfer of fluid from subducted oceanic crust into the overlying mantle wedge are important processes, which are responsible for the specific geochemical characteristics of subduction-related metamorphic rocks, as well as those of arc magmatism. To better understand the geochemical fingerprint induced by fluid mobilization during dehydration and rehydration processes related to subduction zone metamorphism, the trace element and rare earth element (REE) distribution patterns in HP-LT metamorphic assemblages in eclogite-, blueschist- and greenschist-facies rocks of the Ile de Groix were obtained by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) analysis. This study focuses on 10 massive basic rocks representing former hydrothermally altered mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB), four banded basic rocks of volcano-sedimentary origin and one micaschist. The main hosts for incompatible trace elements are epidote (REE, Th, U, Pb, Sr), garnet [Y, heavy REE (HREE)], phengite (Cs, Rb, Ba, B), titanite [Ti, Nb, Ta, REE; HREE > LREE (light REE)], rutile (Ti, Nb, Ta) and apatite (REE, Sr). The trace element contents of omphacite, amphibole, albite and chlorite are low. The incompatible trace element contents of minerals are controlled by the stable metamorphic mineral assemblage and directly related to the appearance, disappearance and reappearance of minerals, especially epidote, garnet, titanite, rutile and phengite, during subduction zone metamorphism. Epidote is a key mineral in the trace element exchange process because of its large stability field, ranging from lower greenschist- to blueschist- and eclogite-facies conditions. Different generations of epidote are generally observed and related to the coexisting phases at different stages of the metamorphic cycle (e.g. lawsonite, garnet, titanite). Epidote thus controls most of the REE budget during the changing P-T conditions along the prograde and retrograde path. Phengite also plays an important role in determining the large ion lithophile element (LILE) budget, as it is stable to high P-T conditions. The breakdown of phengite causes the release of LILE during retrogression. A comparison of trace element abundances in whole-rocks and minerals shows that the HP-LT metamorphic rocks largely retain the geochemical characteristics of their basic, volcano-sedimentary and pelitic protoliths, including a hydrothermal alteration overprint before the subduction process. A large part of the incompatible trace elements remained trapped in the rocks and was recycled within the various metamorphic assemblages stable under changing metamorphic conditions during the subduction process, indicating that devolatilization reactions in massive basic rocks do not necessarily imply significant simultaneous trace element and REE release.