External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. METHODS: We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients.

Systematic review of evidence and consensus on diverticulitis: an analysis of national and international guidelines.

AIM: The study aimed to analyse the currently available national and international guidelines for areas of consensus and contrasting recommendations in the treatment of diverticulitis and thereby to design questions for future research. METHOD: MEDLINE, EMBASE and PubMed were systematically searched for guidelines on diverticular disease and diverticulitis. Inclusion was confined to papers in English and those < 10 years old. The included topics were classified as consensus or controversy between guidelines, and the highest level of evidence was scored as sufficient (Oxford Centre of Evidence-Based Medicine Level of Evidence of 3a or higher) or insufficient. RESULTS: Six guidelines were included and all topics with recommendations were compared. Overall, in 13 topics consensus was reached and 10 topics were regarded as controversial. In five topics, consensus was reached without sufficient evidence and in three topics there was no evidence and no consensus. Clinical staging, the need for intraluminal imaging, dietary restriction, duration of antibiotic treatment, the protocol for abscess treatment, the need for elective surgery in subgroups of patients, the need for surgery after abscess treatment and the level of the proximal resection margin all lack consensus or evidence. CONCLUSION: Evidence on the diagnosis and treatment of diverticular disease and diverticulitis ranged from nonexistent to strong, regardless of consensus. The most relevant research questions were identified and proposed as topics for future research.

Ideal and reality: do countries adopt and follow recommended procedures in comprehensive multiyear planning guidelines for national immunization programmes?

BACKGROUND: Meticulous steps and procedures are proposed in planning guidelines for the development of comprehensive multiyear plans for national immunization programmes. However, we know very little about whether the real-life experience of those who adopt these guidelines involves following these procedures as expected. Are these steps and procedures followed in practice? We examined the adoption and usage of the guidelines in planning national immunization programmes and assessed whether the recommendations in these guidelines are applied as consistently as intended. METHODS: We gathered information from the national comprehensive multiyear plans developed by 77 low-income countries. For each of the 11 components, we examined how each country applied the four recommended steps of situation analysis, problem prioritization, selection of interventions, and selection of indicators. We then conducted an analysis to determine the patterns of alignment of the comprehensive multiyear plans with those four recommended planning steps. RESULTS: Within the first 3 years following publication of the guidelines, 66 (86%) countries used the tool to develop their comprehensive multiyear plans. The funding conditions attached to the use of these guidelines appeared to influence their rapid adoption and usage. Overall, only 33 (43%) countries fully applied all four recommended planning steps of the guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Adoption and usage of the guidelines for the development of comprehensive multiyear plans for national immunization programmes were rapid. However, our findings show substantial variation between the proposed planning ideals set out in the guidelines and actual use in practice. A better understanding of factors that influence how recommendations in public health guidelines are applied in practice could contribute to improvements in guidelines design. It could also help adjust strategies used to introduce them into public health programmes, with the ultimate goal of a greater health impact.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009 : analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

Transactional sex and HIV risks - evidence from a cross-sectional national survey among young people in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Transactional sex is associated with the HIV epidemic among young people in Uganda. Few quantitative studies based on nationally representative survey data explored the relationship between sexual behaviors, HIV infection, and transactional sex. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the associations between risky sexual behaviors, participation in transactional sex, and HIV sero-status among men and women aged 15-24 in Uganda. DESIGN: The study uses data from the Uganda AIDS Indicator Survey, a cross-sectional national HIV serological study conducted in 2011. We analyzed data on 1,516 men and 2,824 women aged 15-24 who had been sexually active in the 12 months preceding the survey. Private, face-to-face interviews were also conducted to record the sociodemographics, sexual history, and experiences of sexual coercion. Logistic regression analysis was performed to measure associations between sexual behaviors and transactional sex, and associations between HIV sero-status and transactional sex. RESULTS: Among young people who had been sexually active in the 12 months prior to the survey, 5.2% of young men reported paying for sex while 3.7% of young women reported receiving gifts, favors, or money for sex. Lower educational attainment (ORadjusted 3.25, CI 1.10-9.60) and experience of sexual coercion (ORadjusted 2.83, CI 1.07-7.47) were significantly associated with paying for sex among men. Multiple concurrent sexual relationships were significantly associated with paying for sex among young men (ORadjusted 5.60, CI 2.08-14.95) and receiving something for sex among young women (ORadjusted 8.04, CI 2.55-25.37). Paying for sex among young men and having three to five lifetime sexual partners among young women were associated with increased odds of testing positive for HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Transactional sex is associated with sexual coercion and HIV risk behaviors such as multiple concurrent sexual partnerships among young people in Uganda. In addition, transactional sex appears to place young men at increased risk for HIV in Uganda. Both sexes appear equally vulnerable to risks associated with transactional sex, and therefore should be targeted in intervention programs. In addition, strengthening universal education policy and improving school retention programs may be beneficial in reducing risky sexual behaviors and transactional sex.

Fingerprint identification: advances since the 2009 National Research Council report

"This paper will discuss the major developments in the area of fingerprint" "identification that followed the publication of the National Research Council (NRC, of the US National Academies of Sciences) report in 2009 entitled: Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward. The report portrayed an image of a field of expertise used for decades without the necessary scientific research-based underpinning. The advances since the report and the needs in selected areas of fingerprinting will be detailed. It includes the measurement of the accuracy, reliability, repeatability and reproducibility of the conclusions offered by fingerprint experts. The paper will also pay attention to the development of statistical models allow- ing assessment of fingerprint comparisons. As a corollary of these developments, the next challenge is to reconcile a traditional practice domi- nated by deterministic conclusions with the probabilistic logic of any statistical model. There is a call for greater candour and fingerprint experts will need to communicate differently on the strengths and limitations of their findings. Their testimony will have to go beyond the blunt assertion" "of the uniqueness of fingerprints or the opinion delivered ispe dixit."

National survey of noncommunicable diseases in Seychelles 2013‐2014 (Seychelles Heart Study IV) : main findings

The 2013 survey addressed the following objectives: Primary objectives : a) Distribution of health behaviors related to NCDs, particularly tobacco use, alcohol drinking, and physical activity ; b) Distribution of the main modifiable risk factors of NCDs, particularly blood pressure, adiposity markers, diabetes and blood lipids ; c) Rates of awareness, treatment and control of hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia ; d) Comparison of findings in the survey 2013 with results in previous similar NCD surveys in 1989, 1994, 2004 ; e) Dietary patterns ; f) Knowledge, attitudes and practices related to NCDs and NCD risk factors. Secondary objectives : g) Assessment of indicators of quality of health (e.g. SF‐12) ; h) Assessment of psychological stress and relation with NCD ; i) Assessment of several indicators of frailty (e.g. handgrip strength test, chair strand test, functional limitations) ; j) Assessment of knowledge and level of agreement with current policies on tobacco control ; k) Use of public and private health care services, particularly for NCDs ; l) Exposure to advice on health behaviors given by health professionals at health care level ; m) Burden of chronic diseases not related to the main NCDs (e.g. musculoskeletal, mental health, etc) ; n) Screening of selected cancers ; o) Assessment of the kidney function ; p) Frequency of heart arrhythmias (one‐lead ECG) and heart murmurs (auscultation) ; q) Assessment of bone mineral density (ultrasound of calcaneus) ; r) Exposure of the population to mass media, particularly in relation to health programs, and use by the population of new communication technologies ; s) Assessment of a number of social variables and their association with the variables measured in the survey ; t) More generally, the survey provides broad information (medical, social, environment, etc) that can be useful for tailoring NCD prevention and control programs.

National Survey of Noncommunicable Diseases in Seychelles, 2013-2014 (Seychelles Heart Study IV) : methods and main findings

This report provides information on selected summary results of the National Survey of Noncommunicable Diseases in Seychelles in 2013‐2014 (Seychelles Heart Study IV). The survey is also referred shortly as the "2013 Survey" in this report. Overall crude results were reported in a comprehensive report in November 2014. Further detailed analyses and recommendations on particular topics will be performed separately.