Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part I. Partial SGM Plus profiles.

In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.

Death caused by cardioinhibitory reflex cardiac arrest--a systematic review of cases.

Forensic pathologists often refer to the cardioinhibitory reflex cardiac arrest (CiRCA) following short neck trauma as a mechanism of death. We sought via a systematic review of the literature to identify circumstances under which carotid bifurcation stimulation could lead to death. Two independent reviewers selected case studies or reports from Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Embase. Circumstances and contributory factors were extracted for each case. From the available data, authors independently assessed whether CiRCA was highly probable (no alternative explanation possible), probable (alternative explanation possible), or unlikely (alternative explanation highly probable). A narrative approach was used to define circumstances in which CiRCA remained possible. From the 48 published cases evoking CiRCA as a possible cause of death between 1881 and 2009, 28 were most likely to result of other mechanism of death (i.e., cerebral hypoxia due to carotid compression, mechanical asphyxia, myocardial infarction). CiRCA remained possible for 20 cases (including five based on anecdotal evidence only) with only one case with no alternative explanation other than CiRCA. Our findings support the presumption that reflex cardiac arrhythmia due to carotid bifurcation stimulation cannot provoke death alone. Actual state of knowledge suggests CiRCA might be contributory to death in the presence of drug abuse and/or cardiac pathology, often associated with physical and/or mental excitation.

Fitness to drive and cannabis: Validation of two blood THCCOOH thresholds to distinguish occasional users from heavy smokers.

Many studies based on either an experimental or an epidemiological approach, have shown that the ability to drive is impaired when the driver is under the influence of cannabis. Baseline performances of heavy users remain impaired even after several weeks of abstinence. Symptoms of cannabis abuse and dependence are generally considered incompatible with safe driving. Recently, it has been shown that traffic safety can be increased by reporting the long-term unfit drivers to the driver licensing authorities and referring the cases for further medical assessment. Evaluation of the frequency of cannabis use is a prerequisite for a reliable medical assessment of the fitness to drive. In a previous paper we advocated the use of two thresholds based on 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) concentration in whole blood to help to distinguish occasional cannabis users (≤3μg/L) from heavy regular smokers (≥40μg/L). These criteria were established on the basis of results obtained in a controlled cannabis smoking study with placebo, carried out with two groups of young male volunteers; the first group was characterized by a heavy use (≥10 joints/month) while the second group was made up of occasional users smoking at most 1 joint/week. However, to date, these cutoffs have not been adequately assessed under real conditions. Their validity can now be evaluated and confirmed with 146 traffic offenders' real cases in which the whole blood cannabinoid concentrations and the frequency of cannabis use are known. The two thresholds were not challenged by the presence of ethanol (40% of cases) and of other therapeutic and illegal drugs (24%). Thus, we propose the following procedure that can be very useful in the Swiss context but also in other countries with similar traffic policies: if the whole blood THCCOOH concentration is higher than 40μg/L, traffic offenders must be directed first and foremost toward medical assessment of their fitness to drive. This evaluation is not recommended if the THCCOOH concentration is lower than 3μg/L and if the self-rated frequency of cannabis use is less than 1 time/week. A THCCOOH level between these two thresholds cannot be reliably interpreted. In such a case, further medical assessment and follow-up of the fitness to drive are also suggested, but with lower priority.

Decision analysis for the genotype designation in low-template-DNA profiles

What genotype should the scientist specify for conducting a database search to try to find the source of a low-template-DNA (lt-DNA) trace? When the scientist answers this question, he or she makes a decision. Here, we approach this decision problem from a normative point of view by defining a decision-theoretic framework for answering this question for one locus. This framework combines the probability distribution describing the uncertainty over the trace's donor's possible genotypes with a loss function describing the scientist's preferences concerning false exclusions and false inclusions that may result from the database search. According to this approach, the scientist should choose the genotype designation that minimizes the expected loss. To illustrate the results produced by this approach, we apply it to two hypothetical cases: (1) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on a single electropherogram, and (2) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on one replicate, and a pair of peaks for alleles xi and xj, i ≠ j, on a second replicate. Given that the probabilities of allele drop-out are defined as functions of the observed peak heights, the threshold values marking the turning points when the scientist should switch from one designation to another are derived in terms of the observed peak heights. For each case, sensitivity analyses show the impact of the model's parameters on these threshold values. The results support the conclusion that the procedure should not focus on a single threshold value for making this decision for all alleles, all loci and in all laboratories.

Chemical profiling of different hashish seizures by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and statistical methodology: a case report

Limited information is available regarding the methodology required to characterize hashish seizures for assessing the presence or the absence of a chemical link between two seizures. This casework report presents the methodology applied for assessing that two different police seizures were coming from the same block before this latter one was split. The chemical signature was extracted using GC-MS analysis and the implemented methodology consists in a study of intra- and inter-variability distributions based on the measurement of the chemical profiles similarity using a number of hashish seizures and the calculation of the Pearson correlation coefficient. Different statistical scenarios (i.e., a combination of data pretreatment techniques and selection of target compounds) were tested to find the most discriminating one. Seven compounds showing high discrimination capabilities were selected on which a specific statistical data pretreatment was applied. Based on the results, the statistical model built for comparing the hashish seizures leads to low error rates. Therefore, the implemented methodology is suitable for the chemical profiling of hashish seizures.

DNA evidence, probabilistic evaluation and collaborative tests.

Forensic scientists working in 12 state or private laboratories participated in collaborative tests to improve the reliability of the presentation of DNA data at trial. These tests were motivated in response to the growing criticism of the power of DNA evidence. The experts' conclusions in the tests are presented and discussed in the context of the Bayesian approach to interpretation. The use of a Bayesian approach and subjective probabilities in trace evaluation permits, in an easy and intuitive manner, the integration into the decision procedure of any revision of the measure of uncertainty in the light of new information. Such an integration is especially useful with forensic evidence. Furthermore, we believe that this probabilistic model is a useful tool (a) to assist scientists in the assessment of the value of scientific evidence, (b) to help jurists in the interpretation of judicial facts and (c) to clarify the respective roles of scientists and of members of the court. Respondents to the survey were reluctant to apply this methodology in the assessment of DNA evidence.

A one-year monitoring of nicotine use in sport: frontier between potential performance enhancement and addiction issues.

Tobacco consumption is a global epidemic responsible for a vast burden of disease. With pharmacological properties sought-after by consumers and responsible for addiction issues, nicotine is the main reason of this phenomenon. Accordingly, smokeless tobacco products are of growing popularity in sport owing to potential performance enhancing properties and absence of adverse effects on the respiratory system. Nevertheless, nicotine does not appear on the 2011 World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) Prohibited List or Monitoring Program by lack of a comprehensive large-scale prevalence survey. Thus, this work describes a one-year monitoring study on urine specimens from professional athletes of different disciplines covering 2010 and 2011. A method for the detection and quantification of nicotine, its major metabolites (cotinine, trans-3-hydroxycotinine, nicotine-N'-oxide and cotinine-N-oxide) and minor tobacco alkaloids (anabasine, anatabine and nornicotine) was developed, relying on ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography coupled to triple quadrupole mass spectrometry (UHPLC-TQ-MS/MS). A simple and fast dilute-and-shoot sample treatment was performed, followed by hydrophilic interaction chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HILIC-MS/MS) operated in positive electrospray ionization (ESI) mode with multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) data acquisition. After method validation, assessing the prevalence of nicotine consumption in sport involved analysis of 2185 urine samples, accounting for 43 different sports. Concentrations distribution of major nicotine metabolites, minor nicotine metabolites and tobacco alkaloids ranged from 10 (LLOQ) to 32,223, 6670 and 538 ng/mL, respectively. Compounds of interest were detected in trace levels in 23.0% of urine specimens, with concentration levels corresponding to an exposure within the last three days for 18.3% of samples. Likewise, hypothesizing conservative concentration limits for active nicotine consumption prior and/or during sport practice (50 ng/mL for nicotine, cotinine and trans-3-hydroxycotinine and 25 ng/mL for nicotine-N'-oxide, cotinine-N-oxide, anabasine, anatabine and nornicotine) revealed a prevalence of 15.3% amongst athletes. While this number may appear lower than the worldwide smoking prevalence of around 25%, focusing the study on selected sports highlighted more alarming findings. Indeed, active nicotine consumption in ice hockey, skiing, biathlon, bobsleigh, skating, football, basketball, volleyball, rugby, American football, wrestling and gymnastics was found to range between 19.0 and 55.6%. Therefore, considering the adverse effects of smoking on the respiratory tract and numerous health threats detrimental to sport practice at top level, likelihood of smokeless tobacco consumption for performance enhancement is greatly supported.

Detection of nandrolone metabolites in urine after a football game in professional and amateur players: a Bayesian comparison.

Nandrolone (19-nortestosterone) is a widely used anabolic steroid in sports where strength plays an essential role. Once nandrolone has been metabolised, two major metabolites are excreted in urine, 19-norandrosterone (NA) and 19-noretiocholanolone (NE). In 1997, in France, quite a few sportsmen had concentrations of 19-norandrosterone very close to the IOC cut off limit (2ng/ml). At that time, a debate took place about the capability of the human male body to produce by itself these metabolites without any intake of nandrolone or related compounds. The International Football Federation (FIFA) was very concerned with this problematic, especially because the World Cup was about to start in France. In this respect, a statistical study was held with all football players from the first and second divisions of the Swiss Football National League. All players gave a urine sample after effort and around 6% of them showed traces of 19-norandrosterone. These results were compared with amateur football players (control group) and around 6% of them had very small amounts of 19-norandrosterone and/or 19-noretiocholanolone in urine after effort, whereas none of them had detectable traces of one or the other metabolite before effort. The origin of these compounds in urine after a strenuous physical activity is still unknown, but three hypotheses can be put forward. First, an endogenous production of nandrolone metabolites takes place. Second, nandrolone metabolites are released from the fatty tissues after an intake of nandrolone, some related compounds or some contaminated nutritive supplements. Finally, the sportsmen may have taken something during or just before the football game.

Lipid composition of fingermark residue and donor classification using GC/MS

Lipids available in fingermark residue represent important targets for enhancement and dating techniques. While it is well known that lipid composition varies among fingermarks of the same donor (intra-variability) and between fingermarks of different donors (inter-variability), the extent of this variability remains uncharacterised. Thus, this worked aimed at studying qualitatively and quantitatively the initial lipid composition of fingermark residue of 25 different donors. Among the 104 detected lipids, 43 were reported for the first time in the literature. Furthermore, palmitic acid, squalene, cholesterol, myristyl myristate and myristyl myristoleate were quantified and their correlation within fingermark residue was highlighted. Ten compounds were then selected and further studied as potential targets for dating or enhancement techniques. It was shown that their relative standard deviation was significantly lower for the intra-variability than for the inter-variability. Moreover, the use of data pretreatments could significantly reduce this variability. Based on these observations, an objective donor classification model was proposed. Hierarchical cluster analysis was conducted on the pre-treated data and the fingermarks of the 25 donors were classified into two main groups, corresponding to "poor" and "rich" lipid donors. The robustness of this classification was tested using fingermark replicates of selected donors. 86% of these replicates were correctly classified, showing the potential of such a donor classification model for research purposes in order to select representative donors based on compounds of interest.

DIP-STR: A new marker for resolving unbalanced DNA mixtures

The genetic characterization of unbalanced mixed stains remains an important area where improvementis imperative. Most cases of aggression, homicide and sexual assault produce biological traces withrelatively large amount of the victim's DNA and small amount of the aggressor's DNA. If this ratio issmaller than 1:10 it is currently not possible to obtain a conventional autosomal DNA profile of the minorcontributor, with potential loss of crucial DNA evidence. Y-STR analysis represents a solution for somecases but has several limitations. We propose here a method based on a new compound genetic markerformed by a Deletion/Insertion Polymorphism (DIP) linked to a Short Tandem Repeat polymorphism(STR), that we name DIP-STR. By means of allele-specific amplifications of DIP-STR haplotypes, we canproduce a high resolution autosomal DNA profile of a donor that contributes less than 0.1% to a DNAmixture. Based on these features DIP-STR markers may outperform conventional Y-STR markers inmixed stain analysis.

The likelihood approach to compare populations : a study on DNA evidence and pitfalls of intuitions

The paper follows on from earlier work [Taroni F and Aitken CGG. Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence. Science & Justice 1998; 38: 165-177]. Different explanations of the value of DNA evidence were presented to students from two schools of forensic science and to members of fifteen laboratories all around the world. The responses were divided into two groups; those which came from a school or laboratory identified as Bayesian and those which came from a school or laboratory identified as non-Bayesian. The paper analyses these responses using a likelihood approach. This approach is more consistent with a Bayesian analysis than one based on a frequentist approach, as was reported by Taroni F and Aitken CGG. [Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence] in Science & Justice 1998.

Dating human skeletal remains using 90Sr and 210Pb: case studies. [Dating human skeletal remains using Sr-90 and Pb-210: Case studies]

In legal medicine, the post mortem interval (PMI) of interest covers the last 50 years. When only human skeletal remains are found, determining the PMI currently relies mostly on the experience of the forensic anthropologist, with few techniques available to help. Recently, several radiometric methods have been proposed to reveal PMI. For instance, (14)C and (90)Sr bomb pulse dating covers the last 60 years and give reliable PMI when teeth or bones are available. (232)Th series dating has also been proposed but requires a large amount of bones. In addition, (210)Pb dating is promising but is submitted to diagenesis and individual habits like smoking that must be handled carefully. Here we determine PMI on 29 cases of forensic interest using (90)Sr bomb pulse. In 12 cases, (210)Pb dating was added to narrow the PMI interval. In addition, anthropological investigations were carried out on 15 cases to confront anthropological expertise to the radiometric method. Results show that 10 of the 29 cases can be discarded as having no forensic interest (PMI>50 years) based only on the (90)Sr bomb pulse dating. For 10 other cases, the additional (210)Pb dating restricts the PMI uncertainty to a few years. In 15 cases, anthropological investigations corroborate the radiometric PMI. This study also shows that diagenesis and inter-individual difference in radionuclide uptake represent the main sources of uncertainty in the PMI determination using radiometric methods.

Illicit drug profiling, reflection on statistical comparisons

This paper presents reflexions about statistical considerations on illicit drug profiling and more specifically about the calculation of threshold for determining of the seizure are linked or not. The specific case of heroin and cocaine profiling is presented with the necessary details on the target profiling variables (major alkaloids) selected and the analytical method used. Statistical approach to compare illicit drug seizures is also presented with the introduction of different scenarios dealing with different data pre-treatment or transformation of variables.The main aim consists to demonstrate the influence of data pre-treatment on the statistical outputs. A thorough study of the evolution of the true positive rate (TP) and the false positive rate (FP) in heroin and cocaine comparison is then proposed to investigate this specific topic and to demonstrate that there is no universal approach available and that the calculations have to be revaluate for each new specific application.