Climate oscillations and species interactions: large-scale congruence but regional differences in the phylogeographic structures of an alpine plant and its monophagous insect

Aim. To predict the fate of alpine interactions involving specialized species, using a monophagous beetle and its host-plant as a case study. Location. The Alps. Methods. We investigated genetic structuring of the herbivorous beetle Oreina gloriosa and its specific host-plant Peucedanum ostruthium. We used genome fingerprinting (in the insect and the plant) and sequence data (in the insect) to compare the distribution of the main gene pools in the two associated species and to estimate divergence time in the insect, a proxy for the temporal origin of the interaction. We quantified the similarity in spatial genetic structures by performing a Procrustes analysis, a tool from the shape theory. Finally, we simulated recolonization of an empty space analogous to the deglaciated Alps just after ice retreat by two lineages from two species showing unbalanced dependence, to examine how timing of the recolonization process, as well as dispersal capacities of associated species, could explain the observed pattern. Results. Contrasting with expectations based on their asymmetrical dependence, patterns in the beetle and plant were congruent at a large scale. Exceptions occurred at a regional scale in areas of admixture, matching known suture zones in Alpine plants. Simulations using a lattice-based model suggested these empirical patterns arose during or soon after recolonization, long after the estimated origin of the interaction c. 0.5 million years ago. Main conclusions. Species-specific interactions are scarce in alpine habitats because glacial cycles have limited opportunities for coevolution. Their fate, however, remains uncertain under climate change. Here we show that whereas most dispersal routes are paralleled at large scale, regional incongruence implies that the destinies of the species might differ under changing climate. This may be a consequence of the host-dependence of the beetle that locally limits the establishment of dispersing insects.

Shifts in species richness, herbivore specialization, and plant resistance along elevation gradients.

Environmental gradients have been postulated to generate patterns of diversity and diet specialization, in which more stable environments, such as tropical regions, should promote higher diversity and specialization. Using field sampling and phylogenetic analyses of butterfly fauna over an entire alpine region, we show that butterfly specialization (measured as the mean phylogenetic distance between utilized host plants) decreases at higher elevations, alongside a decreasing gradient of plant diversity. Consistent with current hypotheses on the relationship between biodiversity and the strength of species interactions, we experimentally show that a higher level of generalization at high elevations is associated with lower levels of plant resistance: across 16 pairs of plant species, low-elevation plants were more resistant vis-à-vis their congeneric alpine relatives. Thus, the links between diversity, herbivore diet specialization, and plant resistance along an elevation gradient suggest a causal relationship analogous to that hypothesized along latitudinal gradients.

Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions

BIOMOD is a computer platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, enabling the treatment of a range of methodological uncertainties in models and the examination of species-environment relationships. BIOMOD includes the ability to model species distributions with several techniques, test models with a wide range of approaches, project species distributions into different environmental conditions (e.g. climate or land use change scenarios) and dispersal functions. It allows assessing species temporal turnover, plot species response curves, and test the strength of species interactions with predictor variables. BIOMOD is implemented in R and is a freeware, open source, package

Tracking the ghost of coevolution in specific plant-insect interactions : the case of the pollination system between the globeflower Trollius europaeus and seven european Chiastocheta flies

This study aims at understanding the evolutionary processes at work in specialized species interactions. Prom the macroevolutionary perspective, coevolution among specialized taxa was proposed to be one of the major processes generating biodiversity. We challenge this idea from the theoretical and practical perspective and through a literature review and show that the major hypotheses linking coevolutionary process with macroevolutionary patterns do not necessarily predict lineage co diversification and parallel speciation, limit¬ing the utility of the comparative phylogenenetic approach for investigating coevolution¬ary processes. We also point to the rarity of observed long-term coevolutionary dynamics among lineages and propose that coevolution rather occurs in shorter timescales, followed by ecological fitting. Prom the empirical point, we focus on the nursery pollination interaction between the European globeflower Trollius europaeus (Ranunculaceae) and its associated Chiastocheta flies (Anthomyiidae; Diptera) as a model system of evolution and maintenance of special¬ized interactions. The flies are obligate parasites of the seeds, but also pollinate the plant - it was thus proposed that both species are mutually dependent. Contrasting with the paradigm used for two decades of research on this system, we show that the female fitness component of the plant is similar in the populations with and without Chiastocheta. The plant is thus not exclusively dependent on the flies for reproduction. We discuss this result in the context of the factors responsible for the evolution of mutualistic systems. Understanding the evolution of a biological system requires understanding of its phylo- genetic context. Previous studies showed large mismatch between mtDNA phylogeny and morphological taxonomy in Chiastocheta. By using a large set of RAD-sequencing loci, we delineate the species limits that are congruent with morphology, and show that the discordance is best explained by the scenario of mitochondrial capture among fly species. Finally, we examine this system from a phylogeographic perspective, and identify the lack of congruence in spatial genetic structures of the plant and associated insects across their whole geographic range. The flies show lower numbers of spatial genetic groups than the plant, indicating that not all of the plant réfugia were shared by all the fly species or that the migration dynamics homogenized some of the groups. The incongruence in spatial genetic patterns indicates that fly migrations were largely independent from the genetic background of the plant, following rather a scenario of resource tracking, without the signature of coevolutionary process at this scale. Indeed, while the flies require the plant to survive climatic oscillations, the opposite is not true. Eventually, we show that there is no phylogenetic signal of spatial genetic structures, meaning that neither histories nor life- history traits are shared among closely related species and that species are characterized by unique trajectories of their genes. -- Cette étude vise à comprendre les processus évolutifs à l'oeuvre au sein d'interactions en¬tre espèces spécialisées. Du point de vue macroévolutif, la coévolution entre les taxons spécialisée a été considérée comme l'un des principaux processus générateur de biodiversité. Nous contestons cette idée du point de vue théorique et pratique à travers une revue de la littérature. Nous montrons que les hypothèses majeures reliant les processus coévolutifs avec les patterns de diversité au niveau macroévolutif ne prédisent pas nécessairement la co- diversification des lignées et leur spéciation parallèle, ce qui limite l'utilité de l'approche de phylogénie comparative pour étudier les processus coévolutifs . Nous rappelons également le peu d'exemples de dynamique coévolutive à long terme et proposons que la coévolution se produit plutôt dans des intervalles courts, suivis d'ajustements écologiques. Du point empirique, nous nous concentrons sur l'interaction de pollinisation entre le Trolle d'Europe Trollius europaeus (Ranunculaceae) et ses pollinisateurs associés, du genre Chiastocheta (Anthomyiidae; Diptera) en tant que système-modèle pour étudier l'évolution et le maintien des interactions spécialisées. Les mouches sont des parasites obligatoires des semences, mais pollinisent également la plante. Il a donc été proposé que les deux espèces soient mutuellement dépendantes. Contrastant avec le paradigme utilisé pendant deux décennies de recherche sur ce système, nous montrons, que la composante de fitness femelle de la plante est similaire dans les populations avec et sans Chiastocheta. La plante ne dépend donc pas exclusivement de son interaction avec les mouches pour la reproduction. Nous discutons de ce résultat dans le contexte des facteurs responsables de l'évolution des systèmes mutualistes. Comprendre l'évolution d'un système biologique nécessite la compréhension de son con- texte phylogénétique. Des études antérieures ont montré, chez Chiastocheta, de grandes disparités entre les phylogénies obtenues à partir d'ADN mitochondrial et la taxonomie basée sur les critères morphologiques. En utilisant un grand nombre de loci obtenus par RAD-sequencing, nous traçons les limites des espèces, qui concordent avec les car¬actéristiques morphologies, et montrons que la discordance s'explique en fait par un scénario de capture mitochondriale entre espèces de mouches. Enfin, nous examinons le système d'un point de vue phylogéographique, et identi¬fions les incohérences entre structurations génétiques spatiales de la plante et des insectes associés dans toute leur aire de distribution géographique. Les mouches présentent un nombre de groupes génétiques inférieur à la plante, indiquant que tous les refuges de la plante n'étaient pas partagés par toutes les espèces de mouches ou que les dynamiques migratoires ont homogénéisés certains des groupes chez les mouches. Les différences ob¬servées dans les patrons de structuration génétique spatiale indique que les migrations et dispersions des mouches ont été indépendantes du contexte génétique de la plante, et ces dernières ont été uniquement tributaires de la disponibilité des ressources, sans qu'il n'y ait de signature du processus de coévolution à cette échelle. En effet, tandis que les mouches ont besoin de la plante pour survivre aux oscillations climatiques, le contraire n'est pas exact. Finalement, nous montrons qu'il n'y a pas de signal phylogénétique des structurations génétiques spatiales chez les mouches, ce qui signifie que ni l'histoire, ni les traits d'histoire de vie ne sont partagés entre les espèces phylogénétiquement proches et que les espèces sont caractérisées par des trajectoires uniques de leurs gènes.

Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.

High elevation Plantago lanceolata plants are less resistant to herbivory than their low elevation conspecifics: is it just temperature?

Traits that mediate species interactions are evolutionarily shaped by biotic and abiotic drivers, yet we know relatively little about the relative importance of these factors. Herbivore pressure, along with resource availability and third-party' mutualists, are hypothesized to play a major role in the evolution of plant defence traits. Here, we used the model system Plantago lanceolata, which grows along steep elevation gradients in the Swiss Alps, to investigate the effect of elevation, herbivore pressure, mycorrhizal inoculation and temperature on plant resistance. Over a 1200 m elevation gradient, the levels of herbivory and iridoid glycosides (IGs) declined with increasing elevation. By planting seedlings at three different elevations, we further showed that both low-elevation growing conditions and mycorrhizal inoculation resulted in increased plant resistance to herbivores. Finally, using a temperature-controlled experiment comparing high- and low-elevation ecotypes, we showed that high-elevation ecotypes are less resistant to herbivory, and that lower temperatures impair IGs deployment after herbivore attack. We thus propose that both lower herbivore pressure, and colder temperatures relax the defense syndrome of high elevation plants.

Comparative population genetic structure in a plant-pollinator/seed predator system.

Comparative analyses of spatial genetic structure of populations of plants and the insects they interact with provide an indication of how gene flow, natural selection and genetic drift may jointly influence the distribution of genetic variation and potential for local co-adaptation for interacting species. Here, we analysed the spatial scale of genetic structure within and among nine populations of an interacting species pair, the white campion Silene latifolia and the moth Hadena bicruris, along a latitudinal gradient across Northern/Central Europe. This dioecious, short-lived perennial plant inhabits patchy, often disturbed environments. The moth H. bicruris acts both as its pollinator and specialist seed predator that reproduces by laying eggs in S. latifolia flowers. We used nine microsatellite markers for S. latifolia and eight newly developed markers for H. bicruris. We found high levels of inbreeding in most populations of both plant and pollinator/seed predator. Among populations, significant genetic structure was observed for S. latifolia but not for its pollinator/seed predator, suggesting that despite migration among populations of H. bicruris, pollen is not, or only rarely, carried over between populations, thus maintaining genetic structure among plant populations. There was a weak positive correlation between genetic distances of S. latifolia and H. bicruris. These results indicate that while significant structure of S. latifolia populations creates the potential for differentiation at traits relevant for the interaction with the pollinator/seed predator, substantial gene flow in H. bicruris may counteract this process in at least some populations.

Amoebae as a tool to isolate new bacterial species, to discover new virulence factors and to study the host-pathogen interactions.

Amoebae are unicellular protozoan present worldwide in several environments mainly feeding on bacteria. Some of them, the amoebae-resistant bacteria (ARBs), have evolved mechanisms to survive and replicate inside amoebal species. These mainly include legionella, mycobacteria and Chlamydia-related bacteria. Amoebae can provide a replicative niche, can act as reservoir for bacteria whereas the cystic form can protect the internalized bacteria. Moreover, the amoebae represent a Trojan horse for ARBs to infect animals. The long interaction between amoebae and bacteria has likely selected for bacterial virulence traits leading to the adaptation towards an intracellular lifestyle, and some ARBs have acquired the ability to infect mammals. This review intends to highlight the important uses of amoebae in several fields in microbiology by describing the main tools developed using amoebal cells. First, amoebae such as Acanthamoeba are used to isolate and discover new intracellular bacterial species by two main techniques: the amoebal co-culture and the amoebal enrichment. In the second part, taking Waddlia chondrophila as example, we summarize some important recent applications of amoebae to discover new bacterial virulence factors, in particular thanks to the amoebal plaque assay. Finally, the genetically tractable Dictyostelium discoideum is used as a model organism to study host-pathogen interactions, in particular with the development of several approaches to manipulate its genome that allowed the creation of a wide range of mutated strains largely shared within the Dictyostelium community.

Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

Cleaning wrasse species vary with respect to dependency on the mutualism and behavioural adaptations in interactions

Interspecific mutualisms are an essential feature of life on earth, yet we know little about their evolution and stability. In many mutualisms several species are available as partners, raising questions about the similarity in function and behavioural repertoire depending on the partner species. Furthermore, variation between species in the quantity and quality of interactions resulting in variation in payoffs may allow us to infer the potential evolutionary origin of a multispecies mutualism complex. We addressed these issues in the marine cleaning mutualism, in which so-called 'cleaners' remove ectoparasites from so-called 'client' reef fish. We measured several parameters concerning the quantity and quality of cleaning interactions in six sympatric cleaner wrasse species. We found significant variation between cleaner species with respect to client diversity, the number of interactions with predatory clients, the duration of interactions, the frequency of client jolts as a correlate of 'cheating' by cleaners, and behaviours used for manipulation of client decisions. Exploratory correlations between cleaner species' dependency and our variables of interest suggest that cleaning originated as a conflict-free by-product mutualism and evolved towards more sophisticated behaviours, including strategic behaviours for interactions with predators, cheating and manipulation specifically adapted to the client type.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

Plant species distributions along environmental gradients: do belowground interactions with fungi matter?

The distribution of plants along environmental gradients is constrained by abiotic and biotic factors. Cumulative evidence attests of the impact of biotic factors on plant distributions, but only few studies discuss the role of belowground communities. Soil fungi, in particular, are thought to play an important role in how plant species assemble locally into communities. We first review existing evidence, and then test the effect of the number of soil fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs) on plant species distributions using a recently collected dataset of plant and metagenomic information on soil fungi in the Western Swiss Alps. Using species distribution models (SDMs), we investigated whether the distribution of individual plant species is correlated to the number of OTUs of two important soil fungal classes known to interact with plants: the Glomeromycetes, that are obligatory symbionts of plants, and the Agaricomycetes, that may be facultative plant symbionts, pathogens, or wood decayers. We show that including the fungal richness information in the models of plant species distributions improves predictive accuracy. Number of fungal OTUs is especially correlated to the distribution of high elevation plant species. We suggest that high elevation soil show greater variation in fungal assemblages that may in turn impact plant turnover among communities. We finally discuss how to move beyond correlative analyses, through the design of field experiments manipulating plant and fungal communities along environmental gradients.

Can we disentangle predator-prey interactions from species distributions at a macro-scale? A case study with a raptor species.

There is a debate on whether an influence of biotic interactions on species distributions can be reflected at macro-scale levels. Whereas the influence of biotic interactions on spatial arrangements is beginning to be studied at local scales, similar studies at macro-scale levels are scarce. There is no example disentangling, from other similarities with related species, the influence of predator-prey interactions on species distributions at macro-scale levels. In this study we aimed to disentangle predator-prey interactions from species distribution data following an experimental approach including a factorial design. As a case of study we selected the short-toed eagle because of its known specialization on certain prey reptiles. We used presence-absence data at a 100 Km2 spatial resolution to extract the explanatory capacity of different environmental predictors (five abiotic and two biotic predictors) on the short-toed eagle species distribution in Peninsular Spain. Abiotic predictors were relevant climatic and topographic variables, and relevant biotic predictors were prey richness and forest density. In addition to the short-toed eagle, we also obtained the predictor's explanatory capacities for i) species of the same family Accipitridae (as a reference), ii) for other birds of different families (as controls) and iii) species with randomly selected presences (as null models). We run 650 models to test for similarities of the short-toed eagle, controls and null models with reference species, assessed by regressions of explanatory capacities. We found higher similarities between the short-toed eagle and other species of the family Accipitridae than for the other two groups. Once corrected by the family effect, our analyses revealed a signal of predator-prey interaction embedded in species distribution data. This result was corroborated with additional analyses testing for differences in the concordance between the distributions of different bird categories and the distributions of either prey or non-prey species of the short-toed eagle. Our analyses were useful to disentangle a signal of predator-prey interactions from species distribution data at a macro-scale. This study highlights the importance of disentangling specific features from the variation shared with a given taxonomic level.

Biotic interactions boost spatial models of species richness

Biotic interactions are known to affect the composition of species assemblages via several mechanisms, such as competition and facilitation. However, most spatial models of species richness do not explicitly consider inter-specific interactions. Here, we test whether incorporating biotic interactions into high-resolution models alters predictions of species richness as hypothesised. We included key biotic variables (cover of three dominant arctic-alpine plant species) into two methodologically divergent species richness modelling frameworks - stacked species distribution models (SSDM) and macroecological models (MEM) - for three ecologically and evolutionary distinct taxonomic groups (vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens). Predictions from models including biotic interactions were compared to the predictions of models based on climatic and abiotic data only. Including plant-plant interactions consistently and significantly lowered bias in species richness predictions and increased predictive power for independent evaluation data when compared to the conventional climatic and abiotic data based models. Improvements in predictions were constant irrespective of the modelling framework or taxonomic group used. The global biodiversity crisis necessitates accurate predictions of how changes in biotic and abiotic conditions will potentially affect species richness patterns. Here, we demonstrate that models of the spatial distribution of species richness can be improved by incorporating biotic interactions, and thus that these key predictor factors must be accounted for in biodiversity forecasts