Explaining rapid transitions in the practice of flood risk management

This article draws on empirical material to reflect on what drives rapid change in flood risk management practice, reflecting wider interest in the way that scientific practices make risk landscapes and a specific focus on extreme events as drivers of rapid change. Such events are commonly referred to as a form of creative destruction, ones that reveal both the composition of socioenvironmental assemblages and provide a creative opportunity to remake those assemblages in alternate ways, therefore rapidly changing policy and practice. Drawing on wider thinking in complexity theory, we argue that what happens between events might be as, if not more, important than the events themselves. We use two empirical examples concerned with flood risk management practice: a rapid shift in the dominant technologies used to map flood risk in the United Kingdom and an experimental approach to public participation tested in two different locations, with dramatically different consequences. Both show that the state of the socioenvironmental assemblage in which the events take place matters as much as the magnitude of the events themselves. The periods between rapid changes are not simply periods of discursive consolidation but involve the ongoing mutation of such assemblages, which could either sensitize or desensitize them to rapid change. Understanding these intervening periods matters as much as the events themselves. If events matter, it is because of the ways in which they might bring into sharp focus the coding or framing of a socioenvironmental assemblage in policy or scientific practice irrespective of whether or not those events evolve the assemblage in subtle or more radical ways.

Le nombre de reines chez les fourmis et sa conséquence sur l'organisations sociale

Nearly half of all ant species form polygyne societies (cohabitation of more than a single egg-laying queen). These queens are generally smaller and store fewer fat reserves than queens from monogyne colonies. Most queens in polygyne colonies (70-100 pour 100) are inseminated, although this proportion varies among species, and even among populations of the same species. They exhibit mutual tolerance and they all contribute to the reproductive effort of the colony. Nevertheless, their individual fecundity is considerably reduced compared with that of queens from monogyne colonies. This reduction in fecundity seems to be due to some form of mutual inhibition, in some cases the secretion by each female of a substance suppressing egg production in other queens has been implicated. In a few species, queens are organized into a hierarchy such that certain queens lay more eggs than others or even monopolize egg-laying (functional monogyny). Polygyny is linked to a particular life history. It rarely results from the association of several foundresses (primary polygyny). Usually, it is due to the adoption of young queens by an established nest just after a nuptial flight. This secondary polygyny means that the dispersal of the species is limited and is achieved by the budding of a mother nest. Thus colony founding is dependent; with workers accompanying young queens in establishing new colonies. Observation of closely related species exhibiting different social organizations, some monogyne and others polygyne, shows a possible link between queen number and ecological conditions: polygyne forms are more frequent in unstable habitats susceptible to rapid change, such as that caused by human activity. The existence of polygyne societies is an intriguing evolutionary mystery. Research into the origin and maintenance of polygyny focuses on patterns of speciation in relation to queen number and the different theories put forth for the evolution of eusociality, mainly kin selection and mutualism.

Evidence for an episodic model of protein sequence evolution.

The evolution of protein function appears to involve alternating periods of conservative evolution and of relatively rapid change. Evidence for such episodic evolution, consistent with some theoretical expectations, comes from the application of increasingly sophisticated models of evolution to large sequence datasets. We present here some of the recent methods to detect functional shifts, using amino acid or codon models. Both provide evidence for punctual shifts in patterns of amino acid conservation, including the fixation of key changes by positive selection. Although a link to gene duplication, a presumed source of functional changes, has been difficult to establish, this episodic model appears to apply to a wide variety of proteins and organisms.

Rapid genotypic change and plasticity in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi is caused by a host shift and enhanced by segregation.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are among the most abundant symbionts of plants, improving plant productivity and diversity. They are thought to mostly grow vegetatively, a trait assumed to limit adaptability. However, AMF can also harbor genetically different nuclei (nucleotypes). It has been shown that one AMF can produce genotypically novel offspring with proportions of different nucleotypes. We hypothesized that (1) AMF respond rapidly to a change of environment (plant host) through changes in the frequency of nucleotypes; (2) genotypically novel offspring exhibit different genetic responses to environmental change than the parent; and (3) genotypically novel offspring exhibit a wide range of phenotypic plasticity to a change of environment. We subjected AMF parents and offspring to a host shift. We observed rapid and large genotypic changes in all AMF lines that were not random. Genotypic and phenotypic responses were different among offspring and their parents. Even though growing vegetatively, AMF offspring display a broad range of genotypic and phenotypic changes in response to host shift. We conclude that AMF have the ability to rapidly produce variable progeny, increasing their probability to produce offspring with different fitness than their parents and, consequently, their potential adaptability to new environmental conditions. Such genotypic and phenotypic flexibility could be a fast alternative to sexual reproduction and is likely to be a key to the ecological success of AMF.

Change in individual growth rate and its link to gill-net fishing in two sympatric whitefish species

Size-selective fishing is expected to affect traits such as individual growth rate, but the relationship between the fishery-linked selection differentials and the corresponding phenotypic changes is not well understood. We analysed a 25-year monitoring survey of sympatric populations of the two Alpine whitefish Coregonus albellus and C. fatioi. We determined the fishing-induced selection differentials on growth rates, the actual change of growth rates over time, and potential indicators of reproductive strategies that may change over time. We found marked declines in adult growth rate and significant selection differentials that may partly explain the observed declines. However, when comparing the two sympatric species, the selection differentials on adult growth were stronger in C. albellus while the decline in adult growth rate seemed more pronounced in C. fatioi. Moreover, the selection differential on juvenile growth was significant in C. albellus but not in C. fatioi, while a significant reduction in juvenile growth over the last 25 years was only found in C. fatioi. Our results suggest that size-selective fishing affects the genetics for individual growth in these whitefish, and that the link between selection differentials and phenotypic changes is influenced by species-specific factors.

Impact of a smoking ban in public places: a rapid assessment in the Seychelles.

Background We assessed the impact of a smoking ban in hospitality venues in the Seychelles 9 months after legislation was implemented. Methods Survey officers observed compliance with the smoking ban in 38 most popular hospitality venues and administered a structured questionnaire to two customers, two workers and one manager in each venue. Results Virtually no customers or workers were seen smoking in the indoor premises. Patrons, workers and managers largely supported the ban. The personnel of the hospitality venues reported that most smokers had no difficulty refraining from smoking. However, a third of workers did not systematically request customers to stop smoking and half of them did not report adequate training. Workers reported improved health. No substantial change in the number of customers was noted. Conclusion A ban on public smoking was generally well implemented in hospitality venues but some less than optimal findings suggest the need for adequate training of workers and strengthened enforcement measures. The simple and inexpensive methodology used in this rapid survey may be a useful approach to evaluate the implementation and impact of clean air policy in low and middle-income countries.

Early Cretaceous (late Berriasian to early Aptian) palaeoceanographic change along the northwestern Tethyan margin (Vocontian Trough, southeastern France): δ13C, δ18O and Sr-isotope belemnite and whole-rock records

Stable carbon, oxygen, and strontium isotope records were obtained from uppermost Hauterivian to lowermost Aptian belemnite rostra, which were collected in well-dated sections from the Vocontian Trough (southeastern France). This data set complements previously published belemnite-isotope records from the uppermost Berriasian-Hauterivian interval from the same basin. The belemnite carbon and oxygen isotope record is compared to the carbonate bulk-rock isotope record from the same sections, and from additional Italian sections. With regards to their long-term trends, both belemnite and whole-rock delta O-18 records are well correlated, except for the uppermost Hauterivian-lower Barremian interval, within which they deviate. This discrepancy is interpreted to be linked to the latest Hauterivian Faraoni oceanic anoxic event and its early Barremian aftermath. The Faraoni level is characterized by enhanced sea-water stratification, probably induced by the onset of a warmer and more humid climate along the northern Tethyan margin. The early Barremian was characterized by stronger vertical sea-water mixing reflected by a decrease in density contrast between sea-surface and deeper waters. The belemnite oxygen isotope record shows a more stable evolution with smaller fluctuations than its bulk-rock counterpart, which indicates that deeper water masses were not as much subjected to density fluctuations as sea-surface water. The comparison of belemnite and bulk-rock carbon isotope records allows observing the impact of regional influence exerted by platform carbonate ooze shedding on the carbon cycle. Discrepancies in the two records are observed during time of photozoan carbonate platform growth. The strontium isotopic record shows a gradual increase from the uppermost Berriasian to the uppermost lower Barremian followed by a rapid decrease until the uppermost Barremian and a renewed small increase within the lowermost Aptian. The major inflection point in the uppermost lower Barremian appears to predate the onset in the formation of the Ontong-Java volcanic plateau.

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Assessing rapid evolution in a changing environment.

Climate change poses a serious threat to species persistence. Effective modelling of evolutionary responses to rapid climate change is therefore essential. In this review we examine recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods, techniques normally used to study adaptation over long periods, which allow them to be applied to the study of adaptation over shorter time scales. This increased applicability is largely due to the emergence of more flexible models of character evolution and the parallel development of molecular technologies that can be used to assess adaptive variation at loci scattered across the genome. The merging of phylogenetic and population genetic approaches to the study of adaptation has significant potential to advance our understanding of rapid responses to environmental change.

Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Rapid affinity purification of erythropoietin from biological samples using disposable monoliths.

Identification of post-translational modifications of proteins in biological samples often requires access to preanalytical purification and concentration methods. In the purification step high or low molecular weight substances can be removed by size exclusion filters, and high abundant proteins can be removed, or low abundant proteins can be enriched, by specific capturing tools. In this paper is described the experience and results obtained with a recently emerged and easy-to-use affinity purification kit for enrichment of the low amounts of EPO found in urine and plasma specimens. The kit can be used as a pre-step in the EPO doping control procedure, as an alternative to the commonly used ultrafiltration, for detecting aberrantly glycosylated isoforms. The commercially available affinity purification kit contains small disposable anti-EPO monolith columns (6 ?L volume, Ø7 mm, length 0.15 mm) together with all required buffers. A 24-channel vacuum manifold was used for simultaneous processing of samples. The column concentrated EPO from 20 mL urine down to 55 ?L eluate with a concentration factor of 240 times, while roughly 99.7% of non-relevant urine proteins were removed. The recoveries of Neorecormon (epoetin beta), and the EPO analogues Aranesp and Mircera applied to buffer were high, 76%, 67% and 57%, respectively. The recovery of endogenous EPO from human urine was 65%. High recoveries were also obtained when purifying human, mouse and equine EPO from serum, and human EPO from cerebrospinal fluid. Evaluation with the accredited EPO doping control method based on isoelectric focusing (IEF) showed that the affinity purification procedure did not change the isoform distribution for rhEPO, Aranesp, Mircera or endogenous EPO. The kit should be particularly useful for applications in which it is essential to avoid carry-over effects, a problem commonly encountered with conventional particle-based affinity columns. The encouraging results with EPO propose that similar affinity monoliths, with the appropriate antibodies, should constitute useful tools for general applications in sample preparation, not only for doping control of EPO and other hormones such as growth hormone and insulin but also for the study of post-translational modifications of other low abundance proteins in biological and clinical research, and for sample preparation prior to in vitro diagnostics.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Rapid Improvement and Maintenance of the Lipid Profile After Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass (RYGBP)

Background: Dyslipidemia, a major component of the metabolic syndrome and an important cardiovascular risk factor, is one of the commonest comorbidity associated with morbid obesity. The aim of this paper is to show that RYGBP markedly improves dyslipidemia and that this improvement maintains over time. Patients and Methods: Prospectively updated databank for bariatric patients. Patients undergoing RYGBP have yearly blood tests during follow-up. The results for lipids at one to five years were compared with preoperative values. Results: The mean excess BMI loss after one and five years was 77,9 % and 72,3%respectively. After one year, there was a significant reduction of the mean total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, total cholesterol/HDL ratio and triglyceride values, which maintained up to five years, and an increase of the HDL fraction, which progressed until five years. The proportion of patients with abnormal values decreased from 24,3 to 6,2% for total cholesterol, from 45,1 to 11,7 %for HDL, from 53,3 to 21,9 for LDL, and from 40,5 to 10 % for triglycerides, with no significant change between three and five years, despite some weight regain. Conclusions: RYGBP rapidly improves all components of dyslipidemia, and thereby reduces the overall cardiovascular risk in operated patients.

Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Peatlands and plantations in Sumatra, Indonesia : Complex realities for resource governance, rural development and climate change mitigation

Peatlands play a crucial role in Indonesia's economic development, and in its stated goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Improved peatland management - including a national moratorium on the granting of any new conversion licenses - forms a cornerstone of Indonesia's climate change mitigation commitment. At the same time, rapid expansion of the plantation sector is driving wide-scale drainage and conversion of peat swamp ecosystems. The province of Riau, in central Sumatra, finds itself at the crossroads of these conflicting agendas. This essay presents a case study of three islands on Riau's east coast affected by industrial timber plantation concessions. It examines the divergent experiences, perceptions and responses of communities on the islands. A mix of dramatic protests, localised everyday actions and constructive dialogue has succeeded in delaying or perhaps halting one of the concessions, while negotiations and contestation with the other two continue. With the support of regional and national non-governmental organisations and local government, communities are pursuing alternative development strategies, including the cultivation of sago, which requires no peat drainage. While a powerful political economy of state and corporate actors shapes the contours of socio-environmental change, local social movements can alter trajectories of change, promoting incremental improvements and alternative pathways.