Anemia and chronic kidney disease are potential risk factors for mortality in stroke patients : a historic cohort study

Rapport de synthèseApproche et objectifL'objectif de la recherche était de préciser les relations existant entre l'insuffisance rénale chronique, l'anémie et l'accident vasculaire cérébral parmi des patients hospitalisés au Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV) pour un accident vasculaire cérébral (AVC). Les auteurs ont déterminé la prévalence de l'anémie et de l'insuffisance rénale chronique parmi ces patients et examiné s'ils sont des facteurs de risque indépendants de la mortalité suite à un AVC.L'insuffisance rénale chronique est associée à un risque élevé de développer un AVC. L'anémie est une complication et une conséquence fréquente qui découle de l'insuffisance rénale chronique et est également un facteur de risque pour les maladies cérébro- et cardiovasculaires.MéthodeLa présente étude de cohorte rétrospective se base sur le registre des AVC du CHUV et inclut tous les patients traités suite à un premier AVC au service de neurologie du CHUV entre les années 2000 et 2003.Les variables utilisées pour l'analyse sont les caractéristiques démographiques, l'insuffisance rénale chronique, le débit de filtration glomérulaire.(GFR), l'anémie et d'autres facteurs de risque d'AVC. Ils ont été récoltés au moyen du système informatique du laboratoire du CHUV, d'entretiens téléphoniques (patients ou proches) et du registre des AVC du CHUV.L'insuffisance rénale chronique a été calculée sur base de la ,,Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (K/DOQI)-CKD Classification", laquelle est divisée en cinq stades. L'anémie a été définie par une hémoglobine de < 120g/L pour les femmes et < 130g/L pour les hommes.Les analyses statistiques réalisées sont des tests Chi-carré, des tests de Τ ainsi que des courbes de Kaplan-Meier et le modèle de régression de Cox.RésultatsParmi 890 patients adultes avec un AVC, le GFR moyen était de 64.3 ml/min/1.73 m2, 17% souffraient d'anémie et 10% sont décédés pendant la première année après la sortie de l'hôpital, suite à l'"AVC index". Parmi ceux-ci, 61% avaient une insuffisance rénale chronique de stade 3-5 et 39% de stade 1 ou 2 selon les critères de K/DOQI.D'autre part un taux d'hémoglobine élevé a pu être associé à un risque moins élevé de mortalité un an après la sortie de l'hôpital.Conclusion et perspectiveNous avons constaté que l'anémie ainsi que l'insuffisance rénale chronique sont fréquents parmi les patients souffrant d'un AVC et qu'ils sont des facteurs de risque d'un taux de mortalité élevé après un an. En conséquence, il pourrait être utile de traiter les patients souffrant d'anémie et d'insuffisance rénale dès que possible afin de diminuer les complications et comorbidités résultants de ces maladies.La perspective est de rendre les cliniciens attentif à l'importance de l'insuffisance rénale et de l'anémie parmi les patients ayants développé un AVC, ainsi que d'initier le traitement approprié afin de diminuer les complications, les comorbidités ainsi que les récidives d'un AVC. L'efficacité et l'économicité des interventions visant à améliorer le pronostic chez les patients présentant un AVC et souffrant d'une insuffisance rénale chronique et / ou d'une anémie doivent être évaluées par des études appropriées.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.

Anemia and chronic kidney disease are potential risk factors for mortality in stroke patients: a historic cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated to a higher stroke risk. Anemia is a common consequence of CKD, and is also a possible risk factor for cerebrovascular diseases. The purpose of this study was to examine if anemia and CKD are independent risk factors for mortality after stroke. METHODS: This historic cohort study was based on a stroke registry and included patients treated for a first clinical stroke in the stroke unit of one academic hospital over a three-year period. Mortality predictors comprised demographic characteristics, CKD, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), anemia and other stroke risk factors. GFR was estimated by means of the simplified Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula. Renal function was assessed according to the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (K/DOQI)-CKD classification in five groups. A value of hemoglobin < 120 g/L in women and < 130 g/L in men on admission defined anemia. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox models were used to describe and analyze one-year survival. RESULTS: Among 890 adult stroke patients, the mean (Standard Deviation) calculated GFR was 64.3 (17.8) ml/min/1.73 m2 and 17% had anemia. Eighty-two (10%) patients died during the first year after discharge. Among those, 50 (61%) had K/DOQI CKD stages 3 to 5 and 32 (39%) stages 1 or 2 (p < 0.001). Anemia was associated with an increased risk of death one year after discharge (p < 0.001). After adjustment for other factors, a higher hemoglobin level was independently associated with decreased mortality one year after discharge [hazard ratio (95% CI) 0.98 (0.97-1.00)]. CONCLUSIONS: Both CKD and anemia are frequent among stroke patients and are potential risk factors for decreased one-year survival. The inclusion of patients with a first-ever clinical stroke only and the determination of anemia based on one single measure, on admission, constitute limitations to the external validity. We should investigate if an early detection and management of both CKD and anemia could improve survival in stroke patients.

A safety run-in and randomized phase 2 study of cilengitide combined with chemoradiation for newly diagnosed glioblastoma (NABTT 0306).

BACKGROUND: Cilengitide is a selective integrin inhibitor that is well tolerated and has demonstrated biologic activity in patients with recurrent malignant glioma. The primary objectives of this randomized phase 2 trial were to determine the safety and efficacy of cilengitide when combined with radiation and temozolomide for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme and to select a dose for comparative clinical testing. METHODS: In total, 112 patients were accrued. Eighteen patients received standard radiation and temozolomide with cilengitide in a safety run-in phase followed by a randomized phase 2 trial with 94 patients assigned to either a 500 mg dose group or 2000 mg dose group. The trial was designed to estimate overall survival benefit compared with a New Approaches to Brain Tumor Therapy (NABTT) Consortium internal historic control and data from the published European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trial EORTC 26981. RESULTS: Cilengitide at all doses studied was well tolerated with radiation and temozolomide. The median survival was 19.7 months for all patients, 17.4 months for the patients in the 500 mg dose group, 20.8 months for patients in the 2000 mg dose group, 30 months for patients who had methylated O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) status, and 17.4 months for patients who had unmethylated MGMT status. For patients aged ≤70 years, the median survival and survival at 24 months was superior to what was observed in the EORTC trial (20.7 months vs 14.6 months and 41% vs 27%, respectively; P = .008). CONCLUSIONS: Cilengitide was well tolerated when combined with standard chemoradiation and may improve survival for patients newly diagnosed with glioblastoma multiforme regardless of MGMT methylation status. The authors concluded that, from an efficacy and safety standpoint, future trials of this agent in this population should use the 2000 mg dose. Cancer 2012. © 2012 American Cancer Society.

From Naples 1963 to Rome 2013 - A brief review of how the International Research Group on Ostracoda (IRGO) developed as a social communication system

The 1st International Symposium on Ostracoda (ISO) was held in Naples (1963). The philosophy behind this symposium and the logical outcome of what is now known as the International Research Group on Ostracoda (IRGO) is here reviewed, namely ostracodology over the last 50 years is sociologically analysed. Three different and important historic moments for the scientific achievements of this domain are recognised. The first one, between about 1963-1983, is related to applied research for the oil industry as well as to the great interest in the better description of the marine environment by both zoologists and palaeontologists. Another important aspect during this period was the work by researchers dealing with Palaeozoic ostracods, who had their own discussion group, IRGPO. Gradually, the merger of this latter group with those dealing with post-Palaeozoic ostracods at various meetings improved communication between the two groups of specialists. A second period was approximately delineated between 1983 and 2003. During this time-slice, more emphasis was addressed to environmental research with topics such as the study of global events and long-term climate change. Ostracodologists profited also from the research "politics" within national and international programmes. Large international research teams emerged using new research methods. During the third period (2003-2013), communication and collaborative research reached a global dimension. Amongst the topics of research we cite the reconstruction of palaeoclimate using transfer functions, the building of large datasets of ostracod distributions for regional and intercontinental studies, and the implementation of actions that should lead to taxonomic harmonisation. Projects within which molecular biological techniques are routinely used, combined with sophisticated morphological information, expanded now in their importance. The documentation of the ostracod description improved through new techniques to visualise morphological details, which stimulated also communication between ostracodologists. Efforts of making available ostracod information through newsletters and electronic media are evoked.

Toxic cardenolides: chemical ecology and coevolution of specialized plant-herbivore interactions.

CONTENTS: Summary 28 I. Historic background and introduction 29 II. Diversity of cardenolide forms 29 III. Biosynthesis 30 IV. Cardenolide variation among plant parts 31 V. Phylogenetic distribution of cardenolides 32 VI. Geographic distribution of cardenolides 34 VII. Ecological genetics of cardenolide production 34 VIII. Environmental regulation of cardenolide production 34 IX. Biotic induction of cardenolides 36 X. Mode of action and toxicity of cardenolides 38 XI. Direct and indirect effects of cardenolides on specialist and generalist insect herbivores 39 XII. Cardenolides and insect oviposition 39 XIII. Target site insensitivity 40 XIV. Alternative mechanisms of cardenolide resistance 40 XV. Cardenolide sequestration 41 Acknowledgements 42 References 42 SUMMARY: Cardenolides are remarkable steroidal toxins that have become model systems, critical in the development of theories for chemical ecology and coevolution. Because cardenolides inhibit the ubiquitous and essential animal enzyme Na(+) /K(+) -ATPase, most insects that feed on cardenolide-containing plants are highly specialized. With a huge diversity of chemical forms, these secondary metabolites are sporadically distributed across 12 botanical families, but dominate the Apocynaceae where they are found in > 30 genera. Studies over the past decade have demonstrated patterns in the distribution of cardenolides among plant organs, including all tissue types, and across broad geographic gradients within and across species. Cardenolide production has a genetic basis and is subject to natural selection by herbivores. In addition, there is strong evidence for phenotypic plasticity, with the biotic and abiotic environment predictably impacting cardenolide production. Mounting evidence indicates a high degree of specificity in herbivore-induced cardenolides in Asclepias. While herbivores of cardenolide-containing plants often sequester the toxins, are aposematic, and possess several physiological adaptations (including target site insensitivity), there is strong evidence that these specialists are nonetheless negatively impacted by cardenolides. While reviewing both the mechanisms and evolutionary ecology of cardenolide-mediated interactions, we advance novel hypotheses and suggest directions for future work.

Inferring the degree of incipient speciation in secondary contact zones of closely related lineages of Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup).

Reproductive isolation between lineages is expected to accumulate with divergence time, but the time taken to speciate may strongly vary between different groups of organisms. In anuran amphibians, laboratory crosses can still produce viable hybrid offspring >20 My after separation, but the speed of speciation in closely related anuran lineages under natural conditions is poorly studied. Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup) offer an excellent system to address this question, comprising several lineages that arose at different times and form secondary contact zones. Using mitochondrial and nuclear markers, we previously demonstrated that in Sicily, B. siculus and B. balearicus developed advanced reproductive isolation after Plio-Pleistocene divergence (2.6 My, 3.3-1.9), with limited historic mtDNA introgression, scarce nuclear admixture, but low, if any, current gene flow. Here, we study genetic interactions between younger lineages of early Pleistocene divergence (1.9 My, 2.5-1.3) in northeastern Italy (B. balearicus, B. viridis). We find significantly more, asymmetric nuclear and wider, differential mtDNA introgression. The population structure seems to be molded by geographic distance and barriers (rivers), much more than by intrinsic genomic incompatibilities. These differences of hybridization between zones may be partly explained by differences in the duration of previous isolation. Scattered research on other anurans suggests that wide hybrid zones with strong introgression may develop when secondary contacts occur <2 My after divergence, whereas narrower zones with restricted gene flow form when divergence exceeds 3 My. Our study strengthens support for this rule of thumb by comparing lineages with different divergence times within the same radiation.

A novel dominant mutation of the Nav1.4 alpha-subunit domain I leading to sodium channel myotonia.

BACKGROUND: Mutations in SCN4A may lead to myotonia. METHODS: Presentation of a large family with myotonia, including molecular studies and patch clamp experiments using human embryonic kidney 293 cells expressing wild-type and mutated channels. RESULTS: In a large family with historic data on seven generations and a clear phenotype, including myotonia at movement onset, with worsening by cold temperature, pregnancy, mental stress, and especially after rest after intense physical activity, but without weakness, the phenotype was linked with the muscle sodium channel gene (SCN4A) locus, in which a novel p.I141V mutation was found. This modification is located within the first transmembrane segment of domain I of the Na(v)1.4 alpha subunit, a region where no mutation has been reported so far. Patch clamp experiments revealed a mutation-induced hyperpolarizing shift (-12.9 mV) of the voltage dependence of activation, leading to a significant increase (approximately twofold) of the window current amplitude. In addition, the mutation shifted the voltage dependence of slow inactivation by -8.7 mV and accelerated the entry to this state. CONCLUSIONS: We propose that the gain-of-function alteration in activation leads to the observed myotonic phenotype, whereas the enhanced slow inactivation may prevent depolarization-induced paralysis.

Monitoring natural hazards

Few subjects have caught the attention of the entire world as much as those dealing with natural hazards. The first decade of this new millennium provides a litany of tragic examples of various hazards that turned into disasters affecting millions of individuals around the globe. The human losses (some 225,000 people) associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the economic costs (approximately 200 billion USD) of the 2011 Tohoku Japan earthquake, tsunami and reactor event, and the collective social impacts of human tragedies experienced during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 all provide repetitive reminders that we humans are temporary guests occupying a very active and angry planet. Any examples may have been cited here to stress the point that natural events on Earth may, and often do, lead to disasters and catastrophes when humans place themselves into situations of high risk. Few subjects share the true interdisciplinary dependency that characterizes the field of natural hazards. From geology and geophysics to engineering and emergency response to social psychology and economics, the study of natural hazards draws input from an impressive suite of unique and previously independent specializations. Natural hazards provide a common platform to reduce disciplinary boundaries and facilitate a beneficial synergy in the provision of timely and useful information and action on this critical subject matter. As social norms change regarding the concept of acceptable risk and human migration leads to an explosion in the number of megacities, coastal over-crowding and unmanaged habitation in precarious environments such as mountainous slopes, the vulnerability of people and their susceptibility to natural hazards increases dramatically. Coupled with the concerns of changing climates, escalating recovery costs, a growing divergence between more developed and less developed countries, the subject of natural hazards remains on the forefront of issues that affect all people, nations, and environments all the time.This treatise provides a compendium of critical, timely and very detailed information and essential facts regarding the basic attributes of natural hazards and concomitant disasters. The Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards effectively captures and integrates contributions from an international portfolio of almost 300 specialists whose range of expertise addresses over 330 topics pertinent to the field of natural hazards. Disciplinary barriers are overcome in this comprehensive treatment of the subject matter. Clear illustrations and numerous color images enhance the primary aim to communicate and educate. The inclusion of a series of unique ?classic case study? events interspersed throughout the volume provides tangible examples linking concepts, issues, outcomes and solutions. These case studies illustrate different but notable recent, historic and prehistoric events that have shaped the world as we now know it. They provide excellent focal points linking the remaining terms in the volume to the primary field of study. This Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards will remain a standard reference of choice for many years.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Geochemistry of the thermal springs and fumaroles of Basse-Terre Island, Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

The purpose of this work was to study jointly the volcanic-hydrothermal system of the high-risk volcano La Soufriere, in the southern part of Basse-Terre, and the geothermal area of Bouillante, on its western coast, to derive an all-embracing and coherent conceptual geochemical model that provides the necessary basis for adequate volcanic surveillance and further geothermal exploration. The active andesitic dome of La Soufriere has erupted eight times since 1660, most recently in 1976-1977. All these historic eruptions have been phreatic. High-salinity, Na-CI geothermal liquids circulate in the Bouillante geothermal reservoir, at temperatures close to 250 degrees C. These Na-CI solutions rise toward the surface, undergo boiling and mixing with groundwater and/or seawater, and feed most Na-CI thermal springs in the central Bouillante area. The Na-Cl thermal springs are surrounded by Na-HCO3 thermal springs and by the Na-Cl thermal spring of Anse a la Barque (a groundwater slightly mixed with seawater), which are all heated through conductive transfer. The two main fumarolic fields of La Soufriere area discharge vapors formed through boiling of hydrothermal aqueous solutions at temperatures of 190-215 degrees C below the ``Ty'' fault area and close to 260 degrees C below the dome summit. The boiling liquid producing the vapors of the Ty fault area has SD and delta(18)O values relatively similar to those of the Na-CI liquids of the Bouillante geothermal reservoir, whereas the liquid originating the vapors of the summit fumaroles is strongly enriched in O-18, due to input of magmatic fluids from below. This process is also responsible for the paucity of CH;I in the fumaroles. The thermal features around La Soufriere dome include: (a) Ca-SO4 springs, produced through absorption of hydrothermal vapors in shallow groundwaters; (b) conductively heated, Ca-Na-HCO3 springs; and (c) two Ca-Na-Cl springs produced through mixing of shallow Ca-SO4 waters and deep Na-Cl hydrothermal liquids. The geographical distribution of the different thermal features of La Soufriere area indicates the presence of: (a) a central zone dominated by the ascent of steam, which either discharges at the surface in the fumarolic fields or is absorbed in shallow groundwaters; and (b) an outer zone, where the shallow groundwaters are heated through conduction or addition of Na-Cl liquids coming from hydrothermal aquifer(s).

Emerging therapies for gout.

Over the past decade much has been learned about the mechanisms of crystal-induced inflammation and renal excretion of uric acid, which has led to more specific targeting of gout therapies and a more potent approach to future management of gout. This article outlines agents being developed for more aggressive lowering of urate and more specific anti-inflammatory activity. The emerging urate-lowering therapies include lesinurad, arhalofenate, ulodesine, and levotofisopam. Novel gout-specific anti-inflammatories include the interleukin-1β inhibitors anakinra, canakinumab, and rilonacept, the melanocortins, and caspase inhibitors. The historic shortcomings of current gout treatment may, in part, be overcome by these novel approaches.