The use of the likelihood ratio for evaluative and investigative purposes in comparative forensic handwriting examination

This paper extends previous research and discussion on the use of multivariate continuous data, which are about to become more prevalent in forensic science. As an illustrative example, attention is drawn here on the area of comparative handwriting examinations. Multivariate continuous data can be obtained in this field by analysing the contour shape of loop characters through Fourier analysis. This methodology, based on existing research in this area, allows one describe in detail the morphology of character contours throughout a set of variables. This paper uses data collected from female and male writers to conduct a comparative analysis of likelihood ratio based evidence assessment procedures in both, evaluative and investigative proceedings. While the use of likelihood ratios in the former situation is now rather well established (typically, in order to discriminate between propositions of authorship of a given individual versus another, unknown individual), focus on the investigative setting still remains rather beyond considerations in practice. This paper seeks to highlight that investigative settings, too, can represent an area of application for which the likelihood ratio can offer a logical support. As an example, the inference of gender of the writer of an incriminated handwritten text is forwarded, analysed and discussed in this paper. The more general viewpoint according to which likelihood ratio analyses can be helpful for investigative proceedings is supported here through various simulations. These offer a characterisation of the robustness of the proposed likelihood ratio methodology.

Satellizing Galileo? Non-state Authority and Interoperability Standards in the European Global Navigation Satellite System

This paper explores the extent and limits of non-state authority in international affairs. While a number of studies have emphasised the role of state support and the ability of strategically situated actors to capture regulatory processes, they often fail to unpack the conditions under which this takes place. In order to probe the assumption that structural market power, backed by political support, equates regulatory capture, the article examines the interplay of political and economic considerations in the negotiations to establish worldwide interoperability standards needed for the development of Galileo as a genuinely European global navigation satellite system under civil control. It argues that industries supported and identified as strategic by public actors are more likely to capture standardisation processes than those with the largest market share expected to be created by the standards. This suggests that the influence of industries in space, air and maritime traffic control closely related to the militaro-industrial complex remains disproportionate in comparison to the prospective market of location-based services expected to vastly transform business practices, labour relations and many aspects of our daily life.

Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments.

Risk maps summarizing landscape suitability of novel areas for invading species can be valuable tools for preventing species' invasions or controlling their spread, but methods employed for development of such maps remain variable and unstandardized. We discuss several considerations in development of such models, including types of distributional information that should be used, the nature of explanatory variables that should be incorporated, and caveats regarding model testing and evaluation. We highlight that, in the case of invasive species, such distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using (1) all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions; (2) predictors linked as directly as is feasible to the physiological requirements of the species; and (3) modelling procedures that carefully avoid overfitting to the training data. Finally, model testing and evaluation should focus on well-predicted presences, and less on efficient prediction of absences; a k-fold regional cross-validation test is discussed.

Screening for cardiovascular disease risk and subsequent management in low and middle income countries : challenges and opportunities

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD), mainly heart attack and stroke, is the leading cause of premature mortality in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Identifying and managing individuals at high risk of CVD is an important strategy to prevent and control CVD, in addition to multisectoral population-based interventions to reduce CVD risk factors in the entire population. Methods: We describe key public health considerations in identifying and managing individuals at high risk of CVD in LMICs. Results: A main objective of any strategy to identify individuals at high CVD risk is to maximize the number of CVD events averted while minimizing the numbers of individuals needing treatment. Scores estimating the total risk of CVD (e.g. ten-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD) are available for LMICs, and are based on the main CVD risk factors (history of CVD, age, sex, tobacco use, blood pressure, blood cholesterol and diabetes status). Opportunistic screening of CVD risk factors enables identification of persons with high CVD risk, but this strategy can be widely applied in low resource settings only if cost effective interventions are used (e.g. the WHO Package of Essential NCD interventions for primary health care in low resource settings package) and if treatment (generally for years) can be sustained, including continued availability of affordable medications and funding mechanisms that allow people to purchase medications without impoverishing them (e.g. universal access to health care). This also emphasises the need to re-orient health systems in LMICs towards chronic diseases management.

Antiretroviral treatment of adult HIV infection: 2012 recommendations of the International Antiviral Society-USA panel.

CONTEXT: New trial data and drug regimens that have become available in the last 2 years warrant an update to guidelines for antiretroviral therapy (ART) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults in resource-rich settings. OBJECTIVE: To provide current recommendations for the treatment of adult HIV infection with ART and use of laboratory-monitoring tools. Guidelines include when to start therapy and with what drugs, monitoring for response and toxic effects, special considerations in therapy, and managing antiretroviral failure. DATA SOURCES, STUDY SELECTION, AND DATA EXTRACTION: Data that had been published or presented in abstract form at scientific conferences in the past 2 years were systematically searched and reviewed by an International Antiviral Society-USA panel. The panel reviewed available evidence and formed recommendations by full panel consensus. DATA SYNTHESIS: Treatment is recommended for all adults with HIV infection; the strength of the recommendation and the quality of the evidence increase with decreasing CD4 cell count and the presence of certain concurrent conditions. Recommended initial regimens include 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (tenofovir/emtricitabine or abacavir/lamivudine) plus a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (efavirenz), a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (atazanavir or darunavir), or an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (raltegravir). Alternatives in each class are recommended for patients with or at risk of certain concurrent conditions. CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA level should be monitored, as should engagement in care, ART adherence, HIV drug resistance, and quality-of-care indicators. Reasons for regimen switching include virologic, immunologic, or clinical failure and drug toxicity or intolerance. Confirmed treatment failure should be addressed promptly and multiple factors considered. CONCLUSION: New recommendations for HIV patient care include offering ART to all patients regardless of CD4 cell count, changes in therapeutic options, and modifications in the timing and choice of ART in the setting of opportunistic illnesses such as cryptococcal disease and tuberculosis.

Fièvre jaune: nouvelles recommandations [Yellow fever: new recommendations].

Indication for yellow fever vaccination is not always easy to assess. The decision to immunize is not only based on the actual risk of the disease in a specific location, but also on public health considerations in the visited country (in order to respectively avoid epidemics in endemic countries or the introduction of the virus in zones where the vectors mosquitoes are present) and on travelers' risk factors for severe or even fatal vaccine adverse events. WHO has recently published new recommendations regarding vaccination against yellow fever after concluding that one dose of vaccine generates a life-long protection. This article tends to clarify the strategy to adopt in 2013 using cases frequently encountered in the practice of travel medicine.

Quand faut-il opérer une rupture de la coiffe des rotateurs [When to operate a rotator cuff tear?]

Rotator cuff disease is the most common pathology causing shoulder pain with an overall prevalence rate of 30%. There is a significant association between increasing age and the presence of rotator cuff tears. Spontaneous healing of clinically relevant tears has not been observed. Although satisfactory pain relief is possible without rotator cuff tendon healing, functional outcome is better for healed repairs. Operative treatment must be considered in the context of the reasonable expectations for success. Repairability and potential of surgically tendon construct to heal are important considerations in surgical indications. There is no difference of outcomes between the arthroscopic and the open techniques.

Native-like, long synthetic peptides as components of sub-unit vaccines: practical and theoretical considerations for their use in humans.

Vaccines have been used as a successful tool in medicine by way of controlling many major diseases. In spite of this, vaccines today represent only a handful of all infectious diseases. Therefore, there is a pressing demand for improvements of existing vaccines with particular reference to higher efficacy and undisputed safety profiles. To this effect, as an alternative to available vaccine technologies, there has been a drive to develop vaccine candidate polypeptides by chemical synthesis. In our laboratory, we have recently developed a technology to manufacture long synthetic peptides of up to 130 residues, which are correctly folded and biologically active. This paper discusses the advantages of the molecularly defined, long synthetic peptide approach in the context of vaccine design, development and use in human vaccination.

Use of darbepoetin alfa in the treatment of anaemia of chronic kidney disease: clinical and pharmacoeconomic considerations.

The introduction of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) into everyday clinical practice has greatly improved the care of patients with chronic kidney disease. ESAs have reduced the need for blood transfusions, improved survival, decreased cardiovascular complications and enhanced patient quality of life. The longer acting ESA, darbepoetin alfa (Aranesp(R)), which can be administered less frequently than traditional ESAs, provides further benefits to both patients and healthcare professionals relative to the epoetins. Clinical studies have shown that darbepoetin alfa administered once every 2 weeks or once every month allows enhanced convenience and cost savings with no compromise in efficacy, while maintaining patients within target haemoglobin ranges.

Hypertonie oculaire dans l'orbitopathie dysthyroidienne: considerations physiopathologiques, diagnostiques et therapeutiques. A propos de trois cas significatifs. [Intraocular high pressure in thyroid-associated orbitopathy: physiopathological mechanisms, diagnosis, and management. Three case reports]

PURPOSE: To determine the mechanisms and treatment of ocular hypertension in patients with thyroid-associated orbitopathy and to differenciate it from glaucomatous damage. DESIGN: Three case reports. METHODS: Retrospective review of clinical findings, course, and treatment of the three patients. RESULTS: Elevated intraocular pressure in thyroid-associated orbitopathy observed in the three cases may involve different physiopathological abnormalities such as disturbances of venous circulation, compression by infiltrative muscles, and long corticosteroid use. In the first two cases, defects demonstrated in the perimetry are in consistent with glaucomatous damage. In the third case, visual field abnormalities may be compatible with a glaucomatous disease, but all defects resolved after therapy. Treatement was of the greatest difficulty for the three cases, associating antiglaucomatous medication, steroids, orbital radiotherapy, orbital decompression and extraocular muscle surgery. Intraocular pressure was controlled in all cases. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated intraocular pressure in thyroid-associated orbitopathy is distinguished from glaucomatous disease by its physiopathological mechanisms, clinical course, visual field defects, and treatment. The management of this hypertension is closely related to the treatment of dysthyroid orbitopathy.

Physical considerations on discrepancies in target volume delineation.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To compare the delineations and interpretations of target volumes by physicians in different radio-oncology centers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eleven Swiss radio-oncology centers delineated volumes according to ICRU 50 recommendations for one prostate and one head and neck case. In order to evaluate the consistency of the volume delineations, the following parameters were determined: 1) the target volumes (GTV, CTV and manually expanded PTV) and their extensions in the three main axes and 2) the correlation of the volume delineated by each pair of centers using the ratio of the intersection to the union (called proximity index). RESULTS: The delineated prostate volume was 105+/-55cm(3) for the CTV and 218+/-44cm(3) for the PTV. The delineated head and neck volume was 46+/-15cm(3) for the GTV, 327+/-154cm(3) for the CTV and 528+/-106cm(3) for the PTV. The mean proximity index for the prostate case was 0.50+/-0.13 for the CTV and 0.57+/-0.11 for the PTV. The proximity index for the head and neck case was 0.45+/-0.09 for the GTV, 0.42+/-0.13 for the CTV and 0.59+/-0.06 for the PTV. CONCLUSIONS: Large discrepancies between all the delineated target volumes were observed. There was an inverse relationship between the CTV volume and the margin between CTV and PTV, leading to less discrepancies in the PTV than is the CTV delineations. There was more spread in the sagittal and frontal planes due to CT pixel anisotropy, which suggests that radiation oncologists should delineate the target volumes not only in the transverse plane, but also in the sagittal and frontal planes to improve the delineation by allowing a consistency check.

Décubitus ventral et syndrome de détresse respiratoire aiguë de l'adulte: de la théorie à la pratique [Prone position mechanical ventilation in the Acute Respiratory Distress syndrome: theoretical and practical considerations].

Mortality of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remains extremely high and only few evidence-based specific treatments are currently available. Protective mechanical ventilation has emerged as the comer stone of the management of ARDS to avoid the occurrence of ventilation-induced lung injuries (VILI). Mechanical ventilation in the prone position has often been considered as a rescue therapy reserved to refractory hypoxemia. Since the publication of the PROSEVA study in 2013, early prone positioning for mechanical ventilation should be recommended to improve survival of patients with severe ARDS. In this article, both the theoretical and practical aspects of mechanical ventilation in prone position are reviewed.