ABCtoolbox: a versatile toolkit for approximate Bayesian computations.

BACKGROUND: The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. RESULTS: Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. CONCLUSION: ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.

Wheat alleles introgress into selfing wild relatives: empirical estimates from approximate Bayesian computation in Aegilops triuncialis.

Extensive gene flow between wheat (Triticum sp.) and several wild relatives of the genus Aegilops has recently been detected despite notoriously high levels of selfing in these species. Here, we assess and model the spread of wheat alleles into natural populations of the barbed goatgrass (Aegilops triuncialis), a wild wheat relative prevailing in the Mediterranean flora. Our sampling, based on an extensive survey of 31 Ae. triuncialis populations collected along a 60 km × 20 km area in southern Spain (Grazalema Mountain chain, Andalousia, totalling 458 specimens), is completed with 33 wheat cultivars representative of the European domesticated pool. All specimens were genotyped with amplified fragment length polymorphism with the aim of estimating wheat admixture levels in Ae. triuncialis populations. This survey first confirmed extensive hybridization and backcrossing of wheat into the wild species. We then used explicit modelling of populations and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate the selfing rate of Ae. triuncialis along with the magnitude, the tempo and the geographical distance over which wheat alleles introgress into Ae. triuncialis populations. These simulations confirmed that extensive introgression of wheat alleles (2.7 × 10(-4) wheat immigrants for each Ae. triuncialis resident, at each generation) into Ae. triuncialis occurs despite a high selfing rate (Fis ≈ 1 and selfing rate = 97%). These results are discussed in the light of risks associated with the release of genetically modified wheat cultivars in Mediterranean agrosystems.

Approximate Bayesian Computation Reveals the Crucial Role of Oceanic Islands for the Assembly of Continental Biodiversity.

The perceived low levels of genetic diversity, poor interspecific competitive and defensive ability, and loss of dispersal capacities of insular lineages have driven the view that oceanic islands are evolutionary dead ends. Focusing on the Atlantic bryophyte flora distributed across the archipelagos of the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands, Western Europe, and northwestern Africa, we used an integrative approach with species distribution modeling and population genetic analyses based on approximate Bayesian computation to determine whether this view applies to organisms with inherent high dispersal capacities. Genetic diversity was found to be higher in island than in continental populations, contributing to mounting evidence that, contrary to theoretical expectations, island populations are not necessarily genetically depauperate. Patterns of genetic variation among island and continental populations consistently fitted those simulated under a scenario of de novo foundation of continental populations from insular ancestors better than those expected if islands would represent a sink or a refugium of continental biodiversity. We, suggest that the northeastern Atlantic archipelagos have played a key role as a stepping stone for transoceanic migrants. Our results challenge the traditional notion that oceanic islands are the end of the colonization road and illustrate the significant role of oceanic islands as reservoirs of novel biodiversity for the assembly of continental floras.

An 40Ar/39Ar, Rb/Sr, and stable isotope study of micas in low-grade fold-and-thrust belt: An example from the Swiss Helvetic Alps

White micas in carbonate-rich tectonites and a few other rock types of large thrusts in the Swiss Helvetic fold-and-thrust belt have been analyzed by Ar-40/Ar-39 and Rb/Sr techniques to better constrain the timing of Alpine deformation for this region. Incremental Ar-40/Ar-39 heating experiments of 25 weakly metamorphosed (anchizone to low greenschist) samples yield plateau and staircase spectra. We interpret most of the staircase release spectra result from variable mixtures of syntectonic (neoformed) and detrital micas. The range in dates obtained within individual spectra depends primarily on the duration of mica nucleation and growth, and relative proportions of neoformed and detrital mica. Rb/Sr analyses of 12 samples yield dates of ca. 10-39 Ma (excluding one anomalously young sample). These dates are slightly younger than the Ar-40/Ar-39 total gas dates obtained for the same samples. The Rb/ Sr dates were calculated using initial Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios obtained from the carbonate-dominated host rocks, which are higher than normal Mesozoic carbonate values due to exchange with fluids of higher Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios (and lower O-18/O-16 ratios). Model dates calculated using Sr-87/Sr-86 values typical of Mesozoic marine carbonates more closely approximate the Ar-40/Ar-39 total gas dates for most of the samples. The similarities of Rb/Sr and Ar-40/Ar-39 total gas dates are consistent with limited amounts of detrital mica in the samples. The delta(18)O values range from 24-15%. (VSMOW) for 2-6 mum micas and 27-16parts per thousand for the carbonate host rocks. The carbonate values are significantly lower than their protolith values due to localized fluid-rock interaction and fluid flow along most thrust surfaces. Although most calcite-mica pairs are not in oxygen isotope equilibrium at temperatures of ca. 200-400 degreesC, their isotopic fractionations are indicative of either 1) partial exchange between the minerals and a common external fluid, or 2) growth or isotopic exchange of the mica with the carbonate after the carbonate had isotopically exchanged with an external fluid. The geological significance of these results is not easily or uniquely determined, and exemplifies the difficulties inherent in dating very fine-grained micas of highly deformed tectonites in low-grade metamorphic terranes. Two generalizations can be made regarding the dates obtained from the Helvetic thrusts: 1) samples from the two highest thrusts (Mt. Gond and Sublage) have all of their Ar-40/Ar-39 steps above 20 Ma, and 2) most samples from the deepest Helvetic thrusts have steps (often accounting for more than 80% of Ar-39 release) between 15 and 25 Ma. These dates are consistent with the order of thrusting in the foreland-imbricating system and increase proportions of neoformed to detrital mica in the more metamorphosed hinterland and deeply buried portions of the nappe pile. Individual thrusts accommodated the majority of their displacement during their initial incorporation into the foreland-imbricating system, and some thrusts remained active or were reactivated down to 15 Ma.

Development and current use of parenteral nutrition in critical care - an opinion paper.

Critically ill patients depend on artificial nutrition for the maintenance of their metabolic functions and lean body mass, as well as for limiting underfeeding-related complications. Current guidelines recommend enteral nutrition (EN), possibly within the first 48 hours, as the best way to provide the nutrients and prevent infections. EN may be difficult to realize or may be contraindicated in some patients, such as those presenting anatomic intestinal continuity problems or splanchnic ischemia. A series of contradictory trials regarding the best route and timing for feeding have left the medical community with great uncertainty regarding the place of parenteral nutrition (PN) in critically ill patients. Many of the deleterious effects attributed to PN result from inadequate indications, or from overfeeding. The latter is due firstly to the easier delivery of nutrients by PN compared with EN increasing the risk of overfeeding, and secondly to the use of approximate energy targets, generally based on predictive equations: these equations are static and inaccurate in about 70% of patients. Such high uncertainty about requirements compromises attempts at conducting nutrition trials without indirect calorimetry support because the results cannot be trusted; indeed, both underfeeding and overfeeding are equally deleterious. An individualized therapy is required. A pragmatic approach to feeding is proposed: at first to attempt EN whenever and as early as possible, then to use indirect calorimetry if available, and to monitor delivery and response to feeding, and finally to consider the option of combining EN with PN in case of insufficient EN from day 4 onwards.

Transcriptional profiling of CD4 T cells identifies distinct subgroups of HIV-1 elite controllers.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) elite controllers maintain undetectable levels of viral replication in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART), but their underlying immunological and virological characteristics may vary. Here, we used a whole-genome transcriptional profiling approach to characterize gene expression signatures of CD4 T cells from an unselected cohort of elite controllers. The transcriptional profiles for the majority of elite controllers were similar to those of ART-treated patients but different from those of HIV-1-negative persons. Yet, a smaller proportion of elite controllers showed an alternative gene expression pattern that was indistinguishable from that of HIV-1-negative persons but different from that of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)-treated individuals. Elite controllers with the latter gene expression signature had significantly higher CD4 T cell counts and lower levels of HIV-1-specific CD8(+) T cell responses but did not significantly differ from other elite controllers in terms of HLA class I alleles, HIV-1 viral loads determined by ultrasensitive single-copy PCR assays, or chemokine receptor polymorphisms. Thus, these data identify a specific subgroup of elite controllers whose immunological and gene expression characteristics approximate those of HIV-1-negative persons.

Geochemistry of highly acidic mine water following disposal into a natural lake with carbonate bedrock

Acid mine drainage (AMD) from the Zn-Pb(-Ag-Bi-Cu) deposit of Cerro de Pasco (Central Peru) and waste water from a Cu-extraction plant has been discharged since 1981 into Lake Yanamate, a natural lake with carbonate bedrock. The lake has developed a highly acidic pH of similar to 1. Mean lake water chemistry was characterized by 16,775 mg/L acidity as CaCO(3), 4330 mg/L Fe and 29,250 mg/L SO(4). Mean trace element concentrations were 86.8 mg/L Cu, 493 mg/L Zn, 2.9 mg/L Pb and 48 mg/L As, which did not differ greatly from the discharged AMD. Most elements showed increasing concentrations from the surface to the lake bottom at a maximal depth of 41 m (e.g. from 3581 to 5433 mg/L Fe and 25,609 to 35,959 mg/L SO(4)). The variations in the H and 0 isotope compositions and the element concentrations within the upper 10 m of the water column suggest mixing with recently discharged AMD, shallow groundwater and precipitation waters. Below 15 m a stagnant zone had developed. Gypsum (saturation index, SI similar to 0.25) and anglesite (SI similar to 0.1) were in equilibrium with lake water. Jarosite was oversaturated (SI similar to 1.7) in the upper part of the water column, resulting in downward settling and re-dissolution in the lower part of the water column (SI similar to -0.7). Accordingly, jarosite was only found in sediments from less than 7 m water depth. At the lake bottom, a layer of gel-like material (similar to 90 wt.% water) of pH similar to 1 with a total organic C content of up to 4.40 wet wt.% originated from the kerosene discharge of the Cu-extraction plant and had contaminant element concentrations similar to the lake water. Below the organic layer followed a layer of gypsum with pH 1.5, which overlaid the dissolving carbonate sediments of pH 5.3-7. In these two layers the contaminant elements were enriched compared to lake water in the sequence As < Pb approximate to Cu < Cd < Zn = Mn with increasing depth. This sequence of enrichment was explained by the following processes: (i) adsorption of As on Fe-hydroxides coating plant roots at low pH (up to 3326 mg/kg As), (ii) adsorption at increasing pH near the gypsum/calcite boundary (up to 1812 mg/kg Pb, 2531 mg/kg Cu. and 36 mg/kg Cd), and (iii) precipitation of carbonates (up to 5177 mg/kg Zn and 810 mg/kg Mn: all data corrected to a wet base). The infiltration rate was approximately equal to the discharge rate, thus gypsum and hydroxide precipitation had not resulted in complete clogging of the lake bedrocks. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-informant agreement and prevalence estimates for substance use disorders: direct interview versus family history method.

OBJECTIVES: Family studies typically use multiple sources of information on each individual including direct interviews and family history information. The aims of the present study were to: (1) assess agreement for diagnoses of specific substance use disorders between direct interviews and the family history method; (2) compare prevalence estimates according to the two methods; (3) test strategies to approximate prevalence estimates according to family history reports to those based on direct interviews; (4) determine covariates of inter-informant agreement; and (5) identify covariates that affect the likelihood of reporting disorders by informants. METHODS: Analyses were based on family study data which included 1621 distinct informant (first-degree relatives and spouses) - index subject pairs. RESULTS: Our main findings were: (1) inter-informant agreement was fair to good for all substance disorders, except for alcohol abuse; (2) the family history method underestimated the prevalence of drug but not alcohol use disorders; (3) lowering diagnostic thresholds for drug disorders and combining multiple family histories increased the accuracy of prevalence estimates for these disorders according to the family history method; (4) female sex of index subjects was associated with higher agreement for nearly all disorders; and (5) informants who themselves had a history of the same substance use disorder were more likely to report this disorder in their relatives, which entails the risk of overestimation of the size of familial aggregation. CONCLUSION: Our findings have important implications for the best-estimate procedure applied in family studies.

On estimation and identifiability issues of sex-linked inheritance with a case study of pigmentation in Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba)

Genetic evaluation using animal models or pedigree-based models generally assume only autosomal inheritance. Bayesian animal models provide a flexible framework for genetic evaluation, and we show how the model readily can accommodate situations where the trait of interest is influenced by both autosomal and sex-linked inheritance. This allows for simultaneous calculation of autosomal and sex-chromosomal additive genetic effects. Inferences were performed using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA), a nonsampling-based Bayesian inference methodology. We provide a detailed description of how to calculate the inverse of the X- or Z-chromosomal additive genetic relationship matrix, needed for inference. The case study of eumelanic spot diameter in a Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba) population shows that this trait is substantially influenced by variation in genes on the Z-chromosome (sigma(2)(z) = 0.2719 and sigma(2)(a) = 0.4405). Further, a simulation study for this study system shows that the animal model accounting for both autosomal and sex-chromosome-linked inheritance is identifiable, that is, the two effects can be distinguished, and provides accurate inference on the variance components.

Ambient vertical flow in long-screen wells: a case study in the Fontainebleau Sands Aquifer (France)

A tritium (H-3) profile was constructed in a long-screened well (LSW) of the Fontainebleau Sands Aquifer (France), and the data were combined with temperature logs to gain insight into the potential effects of the ambient vertical flow (AVF) of water through the well on the natural aquifer stratification. AVF is commonly taken into account in wells located in fracture aquifers or intercepting two different aquifers with distinct hydraulic heads. However, due to the vertical hydraulic gradient of the flow lines intercepted by wells, AVF of groundwater is a common process within any type of aquifer. The detection of 3H in the deeper parts of the studied well ( approximate depth 50m), where H-3-free groundwater is expected, indicates that shallow young water is being transported downwards through the well itself. The temperature logs show a nearly zero gradient with depth, far below the mean geothermal gradient in sedimentary basins. The results show that the age distribution of groundwater samples might be biased in relation to the age distribution in the surroundings of the well. The use of environmental tracers to investigate aquifer properties, particularly in LSWs, is then limited by the effects of the AVF of water that naturally occurs through the well.

THE USE OF SIMULATIONS IN EVOLUTIONARY POPULATION GENETICS: APPLICATIONS ON HUMANS, OWLS AND VIRTUAL ORGANISMS

Summary (in English) Computer simulations provide a practical way to address scientific questions that would be otherwise intractable. In evolutionary biology, and in population genetics in particular, the investigation of evolutionary processes frequently involves the implementation of complex models, making simulations a particularly valuable tool in the area. In this thesis work, I explored three questions involving the geographical range expansion of populations, taking advantage of spatially explicit simulations coupled with approximate Bayesian computation. First, the neutral evolutionary history of the human spread around the world was investigated, leading to a surprisingly simple model: A straightforward diffusion process of migrations from east Africa throughout a world map with homogeneous landmasses replicated to very large extent the complex patterns observed in real human populations, suggesting a more continuous (as opposed to structured) view of the distribution of modern human genetic diversity, which may play a better role as a base model for further studies. Second, the postglacial evolution of the European barn owl, with the formation of a remarkable coat-color cline, was inspected with two rounds of simulations: (i) determine the demographic background history and (ii) test the probability of a phenotypic cline, like the one observed in the natural populations, to appear without natural selection. We verified that the modern barn owl population originated from a single Iberian refugium and that they formed their color cline, not due to neutral evolution, but with the necessary participation of selection. The third and last part of this thesis refers to a simulation-only study inspired by the barn owl case above. In this chapter, we showed that selection is, indeed, effective during range expansions and that it leaves a distinguished signature, which can then be used to detect and measure natural selection in range-expanding populations. Résumé (en français) Les simulations fournissent un moyen pratique pour répondre à des questions scientifiques qui seraient inabordable autrement. En génétique des populations, l'étude des processus évolutifs implique souvent la mise en oeuvre de modèles complexes, et les simulations sont un outil particulièrement précieux dans ce domaine. Dans cette thèse, j'ai exploré trois questions en utilisant des simulations spatialement explicites dans un cadre de calculs Bayésiens approximés (approximate Bayesian computation : ABC). Tout d'abord, l'histoire de la colonisation humaine mondiale et de l'évolution de parties neutres du génome a été étudiée grâce à un modèle étonnement simple. Un processus de diffusion des migrants de l'Afrique orientale à travers un monde avec des masses terrestres homogènes a reproduit, dans une très large mesure, les signatures génétiques complexes observées dans les populations humaines réelles. Un tel modèle continu (opposé à un modèle structuré en populations) pourrait être très utile comme modèle de base dans l'étude de génétique humaine à l'avenir. Deuxièmement, l'évolution postglaciaire d'un gradient de couleur chez l'Effraie des clocher (Tyto alba) Européenne, a été examiné avec deux séries de simulations pour : (i) déterminer l'histoire démographique de base et (ii) tester la probabilité qu'un gradient phénotypique, tel qu'observé dans les populations naturelles puisse apparaître sans sélection naturelle. Nous avons montré que la population actuelle des chouettes est sortie d'un unique refuge ibérique et que le gradient de couleur ne peux pas s'être formé de manière neutre (sans l'action de la sélection naturelle). La troisième partie de cette thèse se réfère à une étude par simulations inspirée par l'étude de l'Effraie. Dans ce dernier chapitre, nous avons montré que la sélection est, en effet, aussi efficace dans les cas d'expansion d'aire de distribution et qu'elle laisse une signature unique, qui peut être utilisée pour la détecter et estimer sa force.

Error estimate and control in the MSFV method for multiphase flow in porous media

n this paper the iterative MSFV method is extended to include the sequential implicit simulation of time dependent problems involving the solution of a system of pressure-saturation equations. To control numerical errors in simulation results, an error estimate, based on the residual of the MSFV approximate pressure field, is introduced. In the initial time steps in simulation iterations are employed until a specified accuracy in pressure is achieved. This initial solution is then used to improve the localization assumption at later time steps. Additional iterations in pressure solution are employed only when the pressure residual becomes larger than a specified threshold value. Efficiency of the strategy and the error control criteria are numerically investigated. This paper also shows that it is possible to derive an a-priori estimate and control based on the allowed pressure-equation residual to guarantee the desired accuracy in saturation calculation.