A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Reduction of the hand representation in the ipsilateral primary motor cortex following unilateral section of the corticospinal tract at cervical level in monkeys.

BACKGROUND: After sub-total hemi-section of cervical cord at level C7/C8 in monkeys, the ipsilesional hand exhibited a paralysis for a couple of weeks, followed by incomplete recovery of manual dexterity, reaching a plateau after 40-50 days. Recently, we demonstrated that the level of the plateau was related to the size of the lesion and that progressive plastic changes of the motor map in the contralesional motor cortex, particularly the hand representation, took place following a comparable time course. The goal of the present study was to assess, in three macaque monkeys, whether the hand representation in the ipsilesional primary motor cortex (M1) was also affected by the cervical hemi-section.¦RESULTS: Unexpectedly, based on the minor contribution of the ipsilesional hemisphere to the transected corticospinal (CS) tract, a considerable reduction of the hand representation was also observed in the ipsilesional M1. Mapping control experiments ruled out the possibility that changes of motor maps are due to variability of the intracortical microstimulation mapping technique. The extent of the size reduction of the hand area was nearly as large as in the contralesional hemisphere in two of the three monkeys. In the third monkey, it represented a reduction by a factor of half the change observed in the contralesional hemisphere. Although the hand representation was modified in the ipsilesional hemisphere, such changes were not correlated with a contribution of this hemisphere to the incomplete recovery of the manual dexterity for the hand affected by the lesion, as demonstrated by reversible inactivation experiments (in contrast to the contralesional hemisphere). Moreover, despite the size reduction of M1 hand area in the ipsilesional hemisphere, no deficit of manual dexterity for the hand opposite to the cervical hemi-section was detected.¦CONCLUSION: After cervical hemi-section, the ipsilesional motor cortex exhibited substantial reduction of the hand representation, whose extent did not match the small number of axotomized CS neurons. We hypothesized that the paradoxical reduction of hand representation in the ipsilesional hemisphere is secondary to the changes taking place in the contralesional hemisphere, possibly corresponding to postural adjustments and/or re-establishing a balance between the two hemispheres.

Bats of Borneo: diversity, distributions and representation in protected areas

Protected areas are valuable in conserving tropical biodiversity, but an insufficient understanding of species diversity and distributions makes it difficult to evaluate their effectiveness. This is especially true on Borneo, a species rich island shared by three countries, and is particularly concerning for bats, a poorly known component of mammal diversity that may be highly susceptible to landscape changes. We reviewed the diversity, distributions and conservation status of 54 bat species to determine the representation of these taxa in Borneo's protected areas, and whether these reserves complement each other in terms of bat diversity. Lower and upper bound estimates of bat species composition were characterised in 23 protected areas and the proposed boundaries of the Heart of Borneo conservation area. We used lower and upper bound estimates of species composition. By using actual inventories, species representation was highly irregular, and even if some reserves were included in the Heart of Borneo, the protected area network would still exhibit low complementarity. By inferring species presence from distributions, composition between most reserves was similar, and complementarity was much higher. Predicting species richness using abundance information suggested that bat species representation in reserves may lie between these two extremes. We recommend that researchers better sample biodiversity over the island and address the conservation threats faced in Borneo both within and outside protected areas. While the Heart of Borneo Initiative is commendable, it should not divert attention from other conservation areas.

Prismatic adaptation changes visuospatial representation in the inferior parietal lobule.

Prismatic adaptation has been shown to induce a realignment of visuoproprioceptive representations and to involve parietocerebellar networks. We have investigated in humans how far other types of functions known to involve the parietal cortex are influenced by a brief exposure to prismatic adaptation. Normal subjects underwent an fMRI evaluation before and after a brief session of prismatic adaptation using rightward deviating prisms for one group or after an equivalent session using plain glasses for the other group. Activation patterns to three tasks were analyzed: (1) visual detection; (2) visuospatial short-term memory; and (3) verbal short-term memory. The prismatic adaptation-related changes were found bilaterally in the inferior parietal lobule when prisms, but not plain glasses, were used. This effect was driven by selective changes during the visual detection task: an increase in neural activity was induced on the left and a decrease on the right parietal side after prismatic adaptation. Comparison of activation patterns after prismatic adaptation on the visual detection task demonstrated a significant increase of the ipsilateral field representation in the left inferior parietal lobule and a significant decrease in the right inferior parietal lobule. In conclusion, a brief exposure to prismatic adaptation modulates differently left and right parietal activation during visual detection but not during short-term memory. Furthermore, the visuospatial representation within the inferior parietal lobule changes, with a decrease of the ipsilateral hemifield representation on the right and increase on the left side, suggesting thus a left hemispheric dominance.

Political representation in Switzerland : democratic or plutocratic ?

Les inégalités économiques se traduisent-elles dans des inégalités politiques à travers le processus de représentation électorale? Telle est la question centrale de cette thèse qui s'attache, par ailleurs, à investiguer les mécanismes qui tendent à produire une représentation biaisée des préférences politiques des citoyens en fonction de leur statut économique. Focalisé sur le cas de la Suisse et faisant usage des données de l'enquête postélectorale Selects de 2007, ce travail démontre que sur les rares sujets qui divisent les citoyens selon des clivages économiques - la redistribution des richesses et la sécurité sociale en particulier - les élus à l'Assemblée fédérale ont des préférences qui reflètent mieux les opinions des citoyens les plus riches. Cette sous-représentation des opinions des citoyens modestes et de ceux faisant partie du centre de la distribution des revenus peut en partie être attribuée à des différences dans les taux de participation et de connaissance politiques entre ces groupes de citoyens. La thèse met également en évidence le rôle joué par la représentation descriptive - autrement dit, la similitude en termes de statut économique entre les représentants et les représentés - dans la représentation des opinions et intérêts des citoyens. Par ailleurs, la structure du système partisan en Suisse ne reflétant pas la multidimensionnalité des préférences politiques des citoyens, les électeurs ne parviennent pas à traduire la complexité de leurs préférences politiques dans un choix de vote, ce qui, dans la configuration actuelle des forces politiques, tend à favoriser l'élection de représentants aux opinions proches de la droite sur les questions économiques. Enfin, une analyse de la représentation politique au niveau cantonal tend à soutenir la thèse selon laquelle le manque de régulation en matière de financement des partis en Suisse pourrait partiellement expliquer les inégalités dans la représentation des opinions politiques des citoyens aux revenus distincts. - Do economic inequalities translate into political inequalities through electoral representation? This is the central research question of this thesis, which also investigates the mechanisms that lead to potential economically based inequalities in the representation of citizens' policy preferences. Focusing on the case of Switzerland and making use of data provided by the post- electoral survey Selects 2007, this research demonstrates that regarding the rare policy domains in which the preferences of citizens are clearly linked to economic cleavages - redistribution and social security in particular - members of the Federal Assembly have policy preferences that best reflect the policy preferences of richer citizens. The under-representation of the opinions of relatively poor citizens and of those being the in the middle of the income distribution can be to some extent be explained by differences in political participation and political information across income groups. The thesis also puts forward the role played by descriptive representation - the similarity between representatives and represented in terms of their socioeconomic status - for the representation of citizens' preferences and interests. In addition, the structure of the party system in Switzerland does not reflect the multidimensionality of policy preferences among citizens who, as a result, have a hard time translating their complex preferences into a vote choice. Given the configuration of political actors, this tends to favour the election of representatives from the right who do not represent the preferences of their voters on economic issues. Finally, an analysis of representation at the cantonal level tends to confirm that the lack of party finance regulations in Switzerland may partially explain inequalities in the representation of citizens with different levels of income.

How many diagnosis fields are needed to capture safety events in administrative data? Findings and recommendations from the WHO ICD-11 Topic Advisory Group on Quality and Safety

OBJECTIVE: As part of the WHO ICD-11 development initiative, the Topic Advisory Group on Quality and Safety explores meta-features of morbidity data sets, such as the optimal number of secondary diagnosis fields. DESIGN: The Health Care Quality Indicators Project of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development collected Patient Safety Indicator (PSI) information from administrative hospital data of 19-20 countries in 2009 and 2011. We investigated whether three countries that expanded their data systems to include more secondary diagnosis fields showed increased PSI rates compared with six countries that did not. Furthermore, administrative hospital data from six of these countries and two American states, California (2011) and Florida (2010), were analysed for distributions of coded patient safety events across diagnosis fields. RESULTS: Among the participating countries, increasing the number of diagnosis fields was not associated with any overall increase in PSI rates. However, high proportions of PSI-related diagnoses appeared beyond the sixth secondary diagnosis field. The distribution of three PSI-related ICD codes was similar in California and Florida: 89-90% of central venous catheter infections and 97-99% of retained foreign bodies and accidental punctures or lacerations were captured within 15 secondary diagnosis fields. CONCLUSIONS: Six to nine secondary diagnosis fields are inadequate for comparing complication rates using hospital administrative data; at least 15 (and perhaps more with ICD-11) are recommended to fully characterize clinical outcomes. Increasing the number of fields should improve the international and intra-national comparability of data for epidemiologic and health services research, utilization analyses and quality of care assessment.

Visual representation of food in the brain : effects of repeated exposure and gut hormone secretion

The thesis at hand is concerned with the spatio-temporal brain mechanisms of visual food perception as investigated by electrical neuroimaging. Due to the increasing prevalence of obesity and its associated challenges for public health care, there is a need to better understand behavioral and brain processes underlying food perception and food-based decision-making. The first study (Study A) of this thesis was concerned with the role of repeated exposure to visual food cues. In our everyday lives we constantly and repeatedly encounter food and these exposures influence our food choices and preferences. In Study A, we therefore applied electrical neuroimaging analyses of visual evoked potentials to investigate the spatio-temporal brain dynamics linked to the repeated viewing of high- and low-energy food cues (published manuscript: "The role of energetic value in dynamic brain response adaptation during repeated food image viewing" (Lietti et al., 2012)). In this study, we found that repetitions differentially affect behavioral and brain mechanisms when high-energy, as opposed to low-energy foods and non-food control objects, were viewed. The representation of high-energy food remained invariant between initial and repeated exposures indicating that the sight of high-energy dense food induces less behavioral and neural adaptation than the sight of low-energy food and non-food control objects. We discuss this finding in the context of the higher salience (due to greater motivation and higher reward or hedonic valuation) of energy- dense food that likely generates a more mnemonically stable representation. In turn, this more invariant representation of energy-dense food is supposed to (partially) explain why these foods are over-consumed despite of detrimental health consequences. In Study Β we investigated food responsiveness in patients who had undergone Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery to overcome excessive obesity. This type of gastric bypass surgery is not only known to alter food appreciation, but also the secretion patterns of adipokines and gut peptides. Study Β aimed at a comprehensive and interdisciplinary investigation of differences along the gut-brain axis in bypass-operated patients as opposed to weight-matched non-operated controls. On the one hand, the spatio-temporal brain dynamics to the visual perception of high- vs. low-energy foods under differing states of motivation towards food intake (i.e. pre- and post-prandial) were assessed and compared between groups. On the other hand, peripheral gut hormone measures were taken in pre- and post-prandial nutrition state and compared between groups. In order to evaluate alterations in the responsiveness along the gut-brain-axis related to gastric bypass surgery, correlations between both measures were compared between both participant groups. The results revealed that Roux-en- Y gastric bypass surgery alters the spatio-temporal brain dynamics to the perception of high- and low-energy food cues, as well as the responsiveness along the gut-brain-axis. The potential role of these response alterations is discussed in relation to previously observed changes in physiological factors and food intake behavior post-Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery. By doing so, we highlight potential behavioral, neural and endocrine (i.e. gut hormone) targets for the future development of intervention strategies for deviant eating behavior and obesity. Together, the studies showed that the visual representation of foods in the brain is plastic and that modulations in neural activity are already noted at early stages of visual processing. Different factors of influence such as a repeated exposure, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery, motivation (nutrition state), as well as the energy density of the visually perceived food were identified. En raison de la prévalence croissante de l'obésité et du défi que cela représente en matière de santé publique, une meilleure compréhension des processus comportementaux et cérébraux liés à la nourriture sont nécessaires. En particulier, cette thèse se concentre sur l'investigation des mécanismes cérébraux spatio-temporels liés à la perception visuelle de la nourriture. Nous sommes quotidiennement et répétitivement exposés à des images de nourriture. Ces expositions répétées influencent nos choix, ainsi que nos préférences alimentaires. La première étude (Study A) de cette thèse investigue donc l'impact de ces exposition répétée à des stimuli visuels de nourriture. En particulier, nous avons comparé la dynamique spatio-temporelle de l'activité cérébrale induite par une exposition répétée à des images de nourriture de haute densité et de basse densité énergétique. (Manuscrit publié: "The role of energetic value in dynamic brain response adaptation during repeated food image viewing" (Lietti et al., 2012)). Dans cette étude, nous avons pu constater qu'une exposition répétée à des images représentant de la nourriture de haute densité énergétique, par opposition à de la nourriture de basse densité énergétique, affecte les mécanismes comportementaux et cérébraux de manière différente. En particulier, la représentation neurale des images de nourriture de haute densité énergétique est similaire lors de l'exposition initiale que lors de l'exposition répétée. Ceci indique que la perception d'images de nourriture de haute densité énergétique induit des adaptations comportementales et neurales de moindre ampleur par rapport à la perception d'images de nourriture de basse densité énergétique ou à la perception d'une « catégorie contrôle » d'objets qui ne sont pas de la nourriture. Notre discussion est orientée sur les notions prépondérantes de récompense et de motivation qui sont associées à la nourriture de haute densité énergétique. Nous suggérons que la nourriture de haute densité énergétique génère une représentation mémorielle plus stable et que ce mécanisme pourrait (partiellement) être sous-jacent au fait que la nourriture de haute densité énergétique soit préférentiellement consommée. Dans la deuxième étude (Study Β) menée au cours de cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés aux mécanismes de perception de la nourriture chez des patients ayant subi un bypass gastrique Roux- en-Y, afin de réussir à perdre du poids et améliorer leur santé. Ce type de chirurgie est connu pour altérer la perception de la nourriture et le comportement alimentaire, mais également la sécrétion d'adipokines et de peptides gastriques. Dans une approche interdisciplinaire et globale, cette deuxième étude investigue donc les différences entre les patients opérés et des individus « contrôles » de poids similaire au niveau des interactions entre leur activité cérébrale et les mesures de leurs hormones gastriques. D'un côté, nous avons investigué la dynamique spatio-temporelle cérébrale de la perception visuelle de nourriture de haute et de basse densité énergétique dans deux états physiologiques différent (pre- et post-prandial). Et de l'autre, nous avons également investigué les mesures physiologiques des hormones gastriques. Ensuite, afin d'évaluer les altérations liées à l'intervention chirurgicale au niveau des interactions entre la réponse cérébrale et la sécrétion d'hormone, des corrélations entre ces deux mesures ont été comparées entre les deux groupes. Les résultats révèlent que l'intervention chirurgicale du bypass gastrique Roux-en-Y altère la dynamique spatio-temporelle de la perception visuelle de la nourriture de haute et de basse densité énergétique, ainsi que les interactions entre cette dernière et les mesures périphériques des hormones gastriques. Nous discutons le rôle potentiel de ces altérations en relation avec les modulations des facteurs physiologiques et les changements du comportement alimentaire préalablement déjà démontrés. De cette manière, nous identifions des cibles potentielles pour le développement de stratégies d'intervention future, au niveau comportemental, cérébral et endocrinien (hormones gastriques) en ce qui concerne les déviances du comportement alimentaire, dont l'obésité. Nos deux études réunies démontrent que la représentation visuelle de la nourriture dans le cerveau est plastique et que des modulations de l'activité neurale apparaissent déjà à un stade très précoce des mécanismes de perception visuelle. Différents facteurs d'influence comme une exposition repetee, le bypass gastrique Roux-en-Y, la motivation (état nutritionnel), ainsi que la densité énergétique de la nourriture qui est perçue ont pu être identifiés.

Unequal Representation of Age Groups in Switzerland

The representation of age groups is becoming an increasingly discussed topic in Swiss politics. In this study, we explore inequalities in the descriptive and substantive representation of various age groups and find that despite important disparities in descriptive representation, the policy preferences of various age groups are relatively equally represented in the lower house of the Swiss parliament. Our analysis thus suggests that even if it is gaining visibility, the age cleavage is not central for parliamentary representation in Switzerland.

Effect of levodopa on both verbal and motor representations of action in Parkinson's disease: a fMRI study.

Previous studies have demonstrated that non-demented Parkinson's disease (PD) patients have a specific impairment of verb production compared with noun generation. One interpretation of this deficit suggested the influence of striato-frontal dysfunction on action-related verb processing. The aim of our study was to investigate cerebral changes after motor improvement due to dopaminergic medication on the neural circuitry supporting action representation in the brain as mediated by verb generation and motor imagery in PD patients. Functional magnetic resonance imaging on 8 PD patients in "ON" dopaminergic treatment state (DTS) and in "OFF" DTS was used to explore the brain activity during three different tasks: Object Naming (ObjN), Generation of Action Verbs (GenA) in which patients were asked to overtly say an action associated with a picture and mental simulation of action (MSoA) was investigated by asking subjects to mentally simulate an action related to a depicted object. The distribution of brain activities associated with these tasks whatever DTS was very similar to results of previous studies. The results showed that brain activity related to semantics of action is modified by dopaminergic treatment in PD patients. This cerebral reorganisation concerns mainly motor and premotor cortex suggesting an involvement of the putaminal motor loop according to the "motor" theory of verb processing.

Effects of unilateral motor cortex lesion on ipsilesional hand's reach and grasp performance in monkeys: relationship with recovery in the contralesional hand.

Manual dexterity, a prerogative of primates, is under the control of the corticospinal (CS) tract. Because 90-95% of CS axons decussate, it is assumed that this control is exerted essentially on the contralateral hand. Consistently, unilateral lesion of the hand representation in the motor cortex is followed by a complete loss of dexterity of the contralesional hand. During the months following lesion, spontaneous recovery of manual dexterity takes place to a highly variable extent across subjects, although largely incomplete. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that after a significant postlesion period, manual performance in the ipsilesional hand is correlated with the extent of functional recovery in the contralesional hand. To this aim, ten adult macaque monkeys were subjected to permanent unilateral motor cortex lesion. Monkeys' manual performance was assessed for each hand during several months postlesion, using our standard behavioral test (modified Brinkman board task) that provides a quantitative measure of reach and grasp ability. The ipsilesional hand's performance was found to be significantly enhanced over the long term (100-300 days postlesion) in six of ten monkeys, with the six exhibiting the best, though incomplete, recovery of the contralesional hand. There was a statistically significant correlation (r = 0.932; P < 0.001) between performance in the ipsilesional hand after significant postlesion period and the extent of recovery of the contralesional hand. This observation is interpreted in terms of different possible mechanisms of recovery, dependent on the recruitment of motor areas in the lesioned and/or intact hemispheres.

Digit somatotopy in the human cerebellum: a 7T fMRI study.

The representation of the human body in the human cerebellum is still relatively unknown, compared to the well-studied homunculus in the primary somatosensory cortex. The investigation of the body representation in the cerebellum and its somatotopic organisation is complicated because of the relatively small dimensions of the cerebellum, compared to the cerebrum. Somatotopically organised whole-body homunculi have previously been reported in both humans and rats. However, whether individual digits are represented in the cerebellum in a somatotopically organised way is much less clear. In this study, the high spatial resolution and high sensitivity to the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signal of 7T fMRI were employed to study the BOLD responses in the human cerebellum to the stroking of the skin of individual digits, the hand and forearm. For the first time, a coarse somatotopic organisation of the digits, ordered from D1-D5, could be visualised in individual human subjects in both the anterior (lobule V) and the posterior (lobule VIII) lobes of the cerebellum using a somatosensory stimulus. The somatotopic gradient in lobule V was found consistently in the posterior to anterior direction, with the thumb most posterior, while the direction of the somatotopic gradient in lobule VIII differed between subjects. No somatotopic organisation was found in Crus I. A comparison of the digit patches with the hand patch revealed that the digit regions are completely covered by the hand region in both the anterior and posterior lobes of the cerebellum, in a non-somatotopic manner. These results demonstrate the promise of ultra-high field, high-resolution fMRI for studies of the cerebellum.