S-system parameter estimation for noisy metabolic profiles using newton-flow analysis.

Biochemical systems are commonly modelled by systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). A particular class of such models called S-systems have recently gained popularity in biochemical system modelling. The parameters of an S-system are usually estimated from time-course profiles. However, finding these estimates is a difficult computational problem. Moreover, although several methods have been recently proposed to solve this problem for ideal profiles, relatively little progress has been reported for noisy profiles. We describe a special feature of a Newton-flow optimisation problem associated with S-system parameter estimation. This enables us to significantly reduce the search space, and also lends itself to parameter estimation for noisy data. We illustrate the applicability of our method by applying it to noisy time-course data synthetically produced from previously published 4- and 30-dimensional S-systems. In addition, we propose an extension of our method that allows the detection of network topologies for small S-systems. We introduce a new method for estimating S-system parameters from time-course profiles. We show that the performance of this method compares favorably with competing methods for ideal profiles, and that it also allows the determination of parameters for noisy profiles.

Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models using constraint propagation.

As modern molecular biology moves towards the analysis of biological systems as opposed to their individual components, the need for appropriate mathematical and computational techniques for understanding the dynamics and structure of such systems is becoming more pressing. For example, the modeling of biochemical systems using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) based on high-throughput, time-dense profiles is becoming more common-place, which is necessitating the development of improved techniques to estimate model parameters from such data. Due to the high dimensionality of this estimation problem, straight-forward optimization strategies rarely produce correct parameter values, and hence current methods tend to utilize genetic/evolutionary algorithms to perform non-linear parameter fitting. Here, we describe a completely deterministic approach, which is based on interval analysis. This allows us to examine entire sets of parameters, and thus to exhaust the global search within a finite number of steps. In particular, we show how our method may be applied to a generic class of ODEs used for modeling biochemical systems called Generalized Mass Action Models (GMAs). In addition, we show that for GMAs our method is amenable to the technique in interval arithmetic called constraint propagation, which allows great improvement of its efficiency. To illustrate the applicability of our method we apply it to some networks of biochemical reactions appearing in the literature, showing in particular that, in addition to estimating system parameters in the absence of noise, our method may also be used to recover the topology of these networks.

Lifelong dynamics of human CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells: insights from in vivo data and mathematical modeling.

Despite their limited proliferation capacity, regulatory T cells (T(regs)) constitute a population maintained over the entire lifetime of a human organism. The means by which T(regs) sustain a stable pool in vivo are controversial. Using a mathematical model, we address this issue by evaluating several biological scenarios of the origins and the proliferation capacity of two subsets of T(regs): precursor CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(-) and mature CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(+) cells. The lifelong dynamics of T(regs) are described by a set of ordinary differential equations, driven by a stochastic process representing the major immune reactions involving these cells. The model dynamics are validated using data from human donors of different ages. Analysis of the data led to the identification of two properties of the dynamics: (1) the equilibrium in the CD4(+)CD25(+)FoxP3(+)T(regs) population is maintained over both precursor and mature T(regs) pools together, and (2) the ratio between precursor and mature T(regs) is inverted in the early years of adulthood. Then, using the model, we identified three biologically relevant scenarios that have the above properties: (1) the unique source of mature T(regs) is the antigen-driven differentiation of precursors that acquire the mature profile in the periphery and the proliferation of T(regs) is essential for the development and the maintenance of the pool; there exist other sources of mature T(regs), such as (2) a homeostatic density-dependent regulation or (3) thymus- or effector-derived T(regs), and in both cases, antigen-induced proliferation is not necessary for the development of a stable pool of T(regs). This is the first time that a mathematical model built to describe the in vivo dynamics of regulatory T cells is validated using human data. The application of this model provides an invaluable tool in estimating the amount of regulatory T cells as a function of time in the blood of patients that received a solid organ transplant or are suffering from an autoimmune disease.

Analysis of a finite volume element method for the Stokes problem

In this paper we propose a stabilized conforming finite volume element method for the Stokes equations. On stating the convergence of the method, optimal a priori error estimates in different norms are obtained by establishing the adequate connection between the finite volume and stabilized finite element formulations. A superconvergence result is also derived by using a postprocessing projection method. In particular, the stabilization of the continuous lowest equal order pair finite volume element discretization is achieved by enriching the velocity space with local functions that do not necessarily vanish on the element boundaries. Finally, some numerical experiments that confirm the predicted behavior of the method are provided.

An algebraic operator approach to the analysis of Gerber-Shiu functions

We introduce an algebraic operator framework to study discounted penalty functions in renewal risk models. For inter-arrival and claim size distributions with rational Laplace transform, the usual integral equation is transformed into a boundary value problem, which is solved by symbolic techniques. The factorization of the differential operator can be lifted to the level of boundary value problems, amounting to iteratively solving first-order problems. This leads to an explicit expression for the Gerber-Shiu function in terms of the penalty function.

Desensitization of thermal hyperemia in the skin is reproducible.

OBJECTIVE: Local heating increases skin blood flow SkBF (thermal hyperemia). In a previous study, we reported that a first local thermal stimulus could attenuate the hyperemic response to a second one applied later on the same skin spot, a phenomenon that we termed desensitization. However, other studies found no evidence for desensitization in similar conditions. The aim of the present work was to test whether it was related to differences in instrumentation. METHODS: Twenty-eight healthy young males were studied. Two pairs of heating chambers, one custom-made (our study) and one commercial (other groups), were affixed to forearm skin. SkBF was measured with single-point laser-Doppler flowmetry (LDF) (780nm) in one pair, and laser-Doppler imaging (LDI) (633nm) in the other. A temperature step from 34 to 41°C, was applied for 30minutes and repeated after two hours. RESULTS: During the second thermal challenge, the plateau SkBF was lower than during the first thermal and was observed with each of the four combinations of SkBF measurement techniques and heating equipment (p<0.05 for all conditions, range -9% to -16% of the initial value). CONCLUSION: Desensitization of thermal hyperemia is not specific to peculiar operating conditions.

Hybrid Multiscale Finite Volume method for two-phase flow in porous media

We present a novel hybrid (or multiphysics) algorithm, which couples pore-scale and Darcy descriptions of two-phase flow in porous media. The flow at the pore-scale is described by the Navier?Stokes equations, and the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method is used to model the evolution of the fluid?fluid interface. An extension of the Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method is employed to construct the Darcy-scale problem. First, a set of local interpolators for pressure and velocity is constructed by solving the Navier?Stokes equations; then, a coarse mass-conservation problem is constructed by averaging the pore-scale velocity over the cells of a coarse grid, which act as control volumes; finally, a conservative pore-scale velocity field is reconstructed and used to advect the fluid?fluid interface. The method relies on the localization assumptions used to compute the interpolators (which are quite straightforward extensions of the standard MsFV) and on the postulate that the coarse-scale fluxes are proportional to the coarse-pressure differences. By numerical simulations of two-phase problems, we demonstrate that these assumptions provide hybrid solutions that are in good agreement with reference pore-scale solutions and are able to model the transition from stable to unstable flow regimes. Our hybrid method can naturally take advantage of several adaptive strategies and allows considering pore-scale fluxes only in some regions, while Darcy fluxes are used in the rest of the domain. Moreover, since the method relies on the assumption that the relationship between coarse-scale fluxes and pressure differences is local, it can be used as a numerical tool to investigate the limits of validity of Darcy's law and to understand the link between pore-scale quantities and their corresponding Darcy-scale variables.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Comment on recent modeling studies of astrocyte-neuron metabolic interactions.

Recent years have seen a surge in mathematical modeling of the various aspects of neuron-astrocyte interactions, and the field of brain energy metabolism is no exception in that regard. Despite the advent of biophysical models in the field, the long-lasting debate on the role of lactate in brain energy metabolism is still unresolved. Quite the contrary, it has been ported to the world of differential equations. Here, we summarize the present state of this discussion from the modeler's point of view and bring some crucial points to the attention of the non-mathematically proficient reader.

Teaching evidence-based management with a focus on producing local evidence

We present an approach to teaching evidence-based management (EBMgt) that trains future managers how to produce local evidence. Local evidence is causally interpretable data, collected on-site in companies to address a specific business problem. Our teaching method is a variant of problem-based learning, a method originally developed to teach evidence-based medicine. Following this method, students learn an evidence-based problem-solving cycle for addressing actual business cases. Executing this cycle, students use and produce scientific evidence through literature searches and the design of local, experimental tests of causal hypotheses. We argue the value of teaching EBMgt with a focus on producing local evidence, how it can be taught, and what can be taught. We conclude by outlining our contribution to the literature on teaching EBMgt and by discussing limitations of our approach.

An adaptive multiscale method for density-driven instabilities

Accurate modeling of flow instabilities requires computational tools able to deal with several interacting scales, from the scale at which fingers are triggered up to the scale at which their effects need to be described. The Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method offers a framework to couple fine-and coarse-scale features by solving a set of localized problems which are used both to define a coarse-scale problem and to reconstruct the fine-scale details of the flow. The MsFV method can be seen as an upscaling-downscaling technique, which is computationally more efficient than standard discretization schemes and more accurate than traditional upscaling techniques. We show that, although the method has proven accurate in modeling density-driven flow under stable conditions, the accuracy of the MsFV method deteriorates in case of unstable flow and an iterative scheme is required to control the localization error. To avoid large computational overhead due to the iterative scheme, we suggest several adaptive strategies both for flow and transport. In particular, the concentration gradient is used to identify a front region where instabilities are triggered and an accurate (iteratively improved) solution is required. Outside the front region the problem is upscaled and both flow and transport are solved only at the coarse scale. This adaptive strategy leads to very accurate solutions at roughly the same computational cost as the non-iterative MsFV method. In many circumstances, however, an accurate description of flow instabilities requires a refinement of the computational grid rather than a coarsening. For these problems, we propose a modified iterative MsFV, which can be used as downscaling method (DMsFV). Compared to other grid refinement techniques the DMsFV clearly separates the computational domain into refined and non-refined regions, which can be treated separately and matched later. This gives great flexibility to employ different physical descriptions in different regions, where different equations could be solved, offering an excellent framework to construct hybrid methods.

Historical reconstruction of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposures for workers in a capacitor manufacturing plant

We developed a semiquantitative job exposure matrix (JEM) for workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at a capacitor manufacturing plant from 1946 to 1977. In a recently updated mortality study, mortality of prostate and stomach cancer increased with increasing levels of cumulative exposure estimated with this JEM (trend p values = 0.003 and 0.04, respectively). Capacitor manufacturing began with winding bales of foil and paper film, which were placed in a metal capacitor box (pre-assembly), and placed in a vacuum chamber for flood-filling (impregnation) with dielectric fluid (PCBs). Capacitors dripping with PCB residues were then transported to sealing stations where ports were soldered shut before degreasing, leak testing, and painting. Using a systematic approach, all 509 unique jobs identified in the work histories were rated by predetermined process- and plant-specific exposure determinants; then categorized based on the jobs' similarities (combination of exposure determinants) into 35 job exposure categories. The job exposure categories were ranked followed by a qualitative PCB exposure rating (baseline, low, medium, and high) for inhalation and dermal intensity. Category differences in other chemical exposures (solvents, etc.) prevented further combining of categories. The mean of all available PCB concentrations (1975 and 1977) for jobs within each intensity rating was regarded as a representative value for that intensity level. Inhalation (in microgram per cubic milligram) and dermal (unitless) exposures were regarded as equally important. Intensity was frequency adjusted for jobs with continuous or intermittent PCB exposures. Era-modifying factors were applied to the earlier time periods (1946-1974) because exposures were considered to have been greater than in later eras (1975-1977). Such interpolations, extrapolations, and modifying factors may introduce non-differential misclassification; however, we do believe our rigorous method minimized misclassification, as shown by the significant exposure-response trends in the epidemiologic analysis.

On learning dynamics underlying the evolution of learning rules.

In order to understand the development of non-genetically encoded actions during an animal's lifespan, it is necessary to analyze the dynamics and evolution of learning rules producing behavior. Owing to the intrinsic stochastic and frequency-dependent nature of learning dynamics, these rules are often studied in evolutionary biology via agent-based computer simulations. In this paper, we show that stochastic approximation theory can help to qualitatively understand learning dynamics and formulate analytical models for the evolution of learning rules. We consider a population of individuals repeatedly interacting during their lifespan, and where the stage game faced by the individuals fluctuates according to an environmental stochastic process. Individuals adjust their behavioral actions according to learning rules belonging to the class of experience-weighted attraction learning mechanisms, which includes standard reinforcement and Bayesian learning as special cases. We use stochastic approximation theory in order to derive differential equations governing action play probabilities, which turn out to have qualitative features of mutator-selection equations. We then perform agent-based simulations to find the conditions where the deterministic approximation is closest to the original stochastic learning process for standard 2-action 2-player fluctuating games, where interaction between learning rules and preference reversal may occur. Finally, we analyze a simplified model for the evolution of learning in a producer-scrounger game, which shows that the exploration rate can interact in a non-intuitive way with other features of co-evolving learning rules. Overall, our analyses illustrate the usefulness of applying stochastic approximation theory in the study of animal learning.

Simulation of surface waves in porous media

We present a novel numerical algorithm for the simulation of seismic wave propagation in porous media, which is particularly suitable for the accurate modelling of surface wave-type phenomena. The differential equations of motion are based on Biot's theory of poro-elasticity and solved with a pseudospectral approach using Fourier and Chebyshev methods to compute the spatial derivatives along the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. The time solver is a splitting algorithm that accounts for the stiffness of the differential equations. Due to the Chebyshev operator the grid spacing in the vertical direction is non-uniform and characterized by a denser spatial sampling in the vicinity of interfaces, which allows for a numerically stable and accurate evaluation of higher order surface wave modes. We stretch the grid in the vertical direction to increase the minimum grid spacing and reduce the computational cost. The free-surface boundary conditions are implemented with a characteristics approach, where the characteristic variables are evaluated at zero viscosity. The same procedure is used to model seismic wave propagation at the interface between a fluid and porous medium. In this case, each medium is represented by a different grid and the two grids are combined through a domain-decomposition method. This wavefield decomposition method accounts for the discontinuity of variables and is crucial for an accurate interface treatment. We simulate seismic wave propagation with open-pore and sealed-pore boundary conditions and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm by comparing the numerical simulations to analytical solutions based on zero viscosity obtained with the Cagniard-de Hoop method. Finally, we illustrate the suitability of our algorithm for more complex models of porous media involving viscous pore fluids and strongly heterogeneous distributions of the elastic and hydraulic material properties.

Toxicokinetic modeling of folpet fungicide and its ring-biomarkers of exposure in humans.

A human in vivo toxicokinetic model was built to allow a better understanding of the toxicokinetics of folpet fungicide and its key ring biomarkers of exposure: phthalimide (PI), phthalamic acid (PAA) and phthalic acid (PA). Both PI and the sum of ring metabolites, expressed as PA equivalents (PAeq), may be used as biomarkers of exposure. The conceptual representation of the model was based on the analysis of the time course of these biomarkers in volunteers orally and dermally exposed to folpet. In the model, compartments were also used to represent the body burden of folpet and experimentally relevant PI, PAA and PA ring metabolites in blood and in key tissues as well as in excreta, hence urinary and feces. The time evolution of these biomarkers in each compartment of the model was then mathematically described by a system of coupled differential equations. The mathematical parameters of the model were then determined from best fits to the time courses of PI and PAeq in blood and urine of five volunteers administered orally 1 mg kg(-1) and dermally 10 mg kg(-1) of folpet. In the case of oral administration, the mean elimination half-life of PI from blood (through feces, urine or metabolism) was found to be 39.9 h as compared with 28.0 h for PAeq. In the case of a dermal application, mean elimination half-life of PI and PAeq was estimated to be 34.3 and 29.3 h, respectively. The average final fractions of administered dose recovered in urine as PI over the 0-96 h period were 0.030 and 0.002%, for oral and dermal exposure, respectively. Corresponding values for PAeq were 24.5 and 1.83%, respectively. Finally, the average clearance rate of PI from blood calculated from the oral and dermal data was 0.09 ± 0.03 and 0.13 ± 0.05 ml h(-1) while the volume of distribution was 4.30 ± 1.12 and 6.05 ± 2.22 l, respectively. It was not possible to obtain the corresponding values from PAeq data owing to the lack of blood time course data.