Hierarchic species-area relationships and the management of forest habitat islands in intensive farmland

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes are major threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems, and they are expected to have important impacts on many taxa and at various spatial scales. Species richness and area relationships (SARs) have been used to assess species diversity patterns and drivers, and thereby in the establishment of conservation and management strategies. Here we propose a hierarchical approach to achieve deeper insights on SARs in small forest islets in intensive farmland and to address the impacts of decreasing naturalness on such relationships. In the intensive dairy landscapes of Northwest Portugal, where small forest stands (dominated by pines, eucalypts or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest stands were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity. A hierarchical analytical framework was devised to determine species richness and inter- and intra-patch SARs for the whole set of forest patches (general patterns) and for each type of forest (specific patterns). Differences in SARs for distinct groups were also tested by considering subsets of species (native, alien, woody, and herbaceous). Overall, values for species richness were confirmed to be different between forest patches exhibiting different levels of naturalness. Whereas higher values of plant diversity were found in pine stands, higher values for alien species were observed in eucalypt stands. Total area of forest (inter-patch SAR) was found not to have a significant impact on species richness for any of the targeted groups of species. However, significant intra-patch SARs were obtained for all groups of species and forest types. A hierarchical approach was successfully applied to scrutinise SARs along a gradient of forest naturalness in intensively managed landscapes. Dominant canopy tree and management intensity were found to reflect differently on distinct species groups as well as to compensate for increasing stand area, buffering SARs among patches, but not within patches. Thus, the maintenance of small semi-natural patches dominated by pines, under extensive practices of forest management, will promote native plant diversity while at the same time contributing to limit the expansion of problematic alien invasive species.

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

Conservation of a threatened European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation

Summary: Amphibians are among the most vulnerable animals of the world. One third of all species are currently threatened with extinction. Habitat loss is the major menace to pond- and stream-breeding species in the old world. In highly urbanized landscape like the Swiss Plateau, most species suffer from habitat reduction and fragmentation. Among all indigenous species, the European tree frog (Hyla arborea L., 1758) is one of the most endangered. It experienced an alarming decline during the last century and its regional long-term persistence is not guaranteed. We developed a monitoring framework based on calling male counts which included multiple visits to each wetland during the reproduction period in order to precisely determine its distribution on the Lemanic coast. Our results indicate that visiting populations 3 limes under suitable climatic conditions (temperature >20°C) provides reliable presence/absence data. Based on our monitoring data, we analyzed the species requirements regarding its breeding habitat. It appeared that anthropogenic activities had paradoxical effects on the species. On one hand, urbanization, traffic and intensive agriculture had a strong detrimental effect on tree frog distribution. On the other hand, large tree frog populations were frequently associated with gravel pits and military training grounds. Our results allowed us to create a habitat suitability map taking into account detrimental landscape elements around ponds (>1100m away from urban areas and >500m away from first class roads). In parallel, we developed a metapopulation model of the European tree frog in order to identify the critical threats to the long term persistence of the species. Our results indicated that suitable pond density is at the low end of the species requirements. Pond creation must therefore be considered an essential complementary approach to pond conservation and restoration. Our model also provided a mapping solution permitting the location of the must suitable area for pond creation from a metapopulation perspective. As many other amphibians, the European tree frog is not only exposed to an aquatic habitat (breeding and larval period), but also to a terrestrial stage (summer and overwintering habitats). Unfortunately, animals in their terrestrial phase are less conspicuous and, as a consequence, their terrestrial needs are relatively unknown. Using a recent tracking method (the Harmonic Direction Finder), we followed post-breeding frogs and identified favored terrestrial habitats, thus providing another practical conservation tool. We conclude that only the combination of multiple spatially explicit approaches (landscape-scale habitat suitability, metapopulation dynamics and terrestrial needs) is likely to provide wildlife managers with effective tools for the conservation of highly endangered amphibians. Résumé: Les amphibiens font partie des animaux les plus vulnérables du monde. Un tiers des espèces est actuellement menacé d'extinction. Dans l'ancien monde, la disparition des habitats constitue la principale menace pour les grenouilles, crapauds, tritons et salamandres. Dans les paysages fortement urbanisés comme le Plateau Suisse, la plupart des espèces souffrent d'une réduction et d'une fragmentation de leurs habitats. Parmi toutes les espèces indigènes, la rainette verte (Hyla arborea L., 1758) est l'une des plus menacée. Sa distribution a régressé de manière alarmante durant le siècle passé et sa survie régionale à long terme n'est pas assurée. Nous avons développé une méthode de suivi des populations se basant sur le comptage des mâles chanteurs durant la période de reproduction. Cette méthode requiert plusieurs visites à chaque plan d'eau de manière à déterminer précisément la distribution de l'espèce. Nos résultats démontrent que 3 visites par population dans des conditions climatiques favorable (température >20°C) permettent d'obtenir des données de présence/ absence valables. Sur la base de nos comptages sur la Côte lémanique, nous avons analysé les exigences de l'espèce concernant ses sites de reproduction. Il est apparu que les activités humaines avaient un effet paradoxal sur l'espèce. D'une part, l'urbanisation, le trafic routier et l'intensification de l'agriculture ont un effet fortement préjudiciable, tandis que d'autre part les plus grandes populations sont souvent associées à des gravières et autres places d'armes. Nos résultats ont permis de créer une carte de qualité d'habitat prenant en compte les éléments paysagers préjudiciables à la rainette (situé à plus de 1100m de zones urbaines et à plus de 500m de routes de première classe). En parallèle, nous avons développé un modèle métapopulationnel (incluant l'ensemble des populations) de manière à identifier les menaces prépondérantes sur la survie à long terme de l'espèce. Nos résultats ont permis de déterminer que la densité actuelle de plans d'eau adéquats est à la limite inférieure des exigences de l'espèce. La création d'étangs doit donc être considérée comme une approche indispensable et complémentaire à la protection et à la restauration des sites existants. Notre modèle a également fourni des résultats cartographiables permettant l'identification des sites les plus appropriés dans une perspective métapopulationnelle. Comme de nombreux autres amphibiens, la rainette verte est exposée à un habitat aquatique (reproduction et développement larvaire) ainsi qu'à un habitat terrestre (été et hiver). Les animaux étant particulièrement cryptiques dans cette seconde phase, leurs besoins terrestres sont relativement mal connus. Nous avons donc développé une nouvelle méthode de télémétrie basée sur le goniomètre harmonique. Cette méthode nous a permis de suivre des rainettes dans leurs migrations jusqu'à leurs habitats d'été et d'établir ainsi des recommandations pratiques pour la conservation de la rainette. Nous concluons que la combinaison de multiples approches spatialement explicites (qualité d'habitat, dynamique de métapopulation et habitats terrestres) est seule à même de produire des outils efficaces pour la conservation des espèces menacées d'amphibiens.

Coexistence of specialist and generalist species is shaped by dispersal and environmental factors.

Disentangling the mechanisms mediating the coexistence of habitat specialists and generalists has been a long-standing subject of investigation. However, the roles of species traits and environmental and spatial factors have not been assessed in a unifying theoretical framework. Theory suggests that specialist species are more competitive in natural communities. However, empirical work has shown that specialist species are declining worldwide due to habitat loss and fragmentation. We addressed the question of the coexistence of specialist and generalist species with a spatially explicit metacommunity model in continuous and heterogeneous environments. We characterized how species' dispersal abilities, the number of interacting species, environmental spatial autocorrelation, and disturbance impact community composition. Our results demonstrated that species' dispersal ability and the number of interacting species had a drastic influence on the composition of metacommunities. More specialized species coexisted when species had large dispersal abilities and when the number of interacting species was high. Disturbance selected against highly specialized species, whereas environmental spatial autocorrelation had a marginal impact. Interestingly, species richness and niche breadth were mainly positively correlated at the community scale but were negatively correlated at the metacommunity scale. Numerous diversely specialized species can thus coexist, but both species' intrinsic traits and environmental factors interact to shape the specialization signatures of communities at both the local and global scales.

Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

Quaternary coral reef refugia preserved fish diversity.

The most prominent pattern in global marine biogeography is the biodiversity peak in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Yet the processes that underpin this pattern are still actively debated. By reconstructing global marine paleoenvironments over the past 3 million years on the basis of sediment cores, we assessed the extent to which Quaternary climate fluctuations can explain global variation in current reef fish richness. Comparing global historical coral reef habitat availability with the present-day distribution of 6316 reef fish species, we find that distance from stable coral reef habitats during historical periods of habitat loss explains 62% of the variation in fish richness, outweighing present-day environmental factors. Our results highlight the importance of habitat persistence during periods of climate change for preserving marine biodiversity.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Parallel declines in species and genetic diversity driven by anthropogenic disturbance: a multispecies approach in a French Atlantic dune system.

Numerous studies assess the correlation between genetic and species diversities, but the processes underlying the observed patterns have only received limited attention. For instance, varying levels of habitat disturbance across a region may locally reduce both diversities due to extinctions, and increased genetic drift during population bottlenecks and founder events. We investigated the regional distribution of genetic and species diversities of a coastal sand dune plant community along 240 kilometers of coastline with the aim to test for a correlation between the two diversity levels. We further quantify and tease apart the respective contributions of natural and anthropogenic disturbance factors to the observed patterns. We detected significant positive correlation between both variables. We further revealed a negative impact of urbanization: Sites with a high amount of recreational infrastructure within 10 km coastline had significantly lowered genetic and species diversities. On the other hand, a measure of natural habitat disturbance had no effect. This study shows that parallel variation of genetic and species diversities across a region can be traced back to human landscape alteration, provides arguments for a more resolute dune protection, and may help to design priority conservation areas.

Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss.

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.

Model development for capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) habitat in the Jura Mountains (Western Switzerland)

Capercaillie, Tetrao urogallus, is a threatened species in central Europe, and Swiss populations declined 40 to 50 % between 1970 and 1985. Capercaillie are sensitive to forest structure, and loss of habitat is a major cause of their decline. Knowledge of habitat characteristics is therefore essential for capercaillie conservation. Here, we present models predicting capercaillie probability of occurrence, based on relevant structural habitat variables. Models were built using multiple logistic regression analyses on capercaillie presence/absence data. Vegetation survey was carried out in July 1999 in a 170-km2 forested area (Jura mountains, canton de Vaud, western Switzerland) inhabited by capercaillie and presence/absence of the species was assessed according to dropping presence/absence. The survey was based on 10-m-radius sample plots each in a 1-km2 forest patch (n = 76 with capercaillie droppings, n = 80 without). A first model included seven out of 27 measured habitat variables and a second model only four. The latter model best represents practical needs. It includes three variables which had a negative impact on capercaillie presence: tree and shrub covers and spruce, Picea excelsa, shrub cover, and one which had a positive effect: bilberry, Vaccinium myrtillus, cover, highlighting that capaercaillie selected open forest with high bilberry abundance. The model can be used to map potential capercaillie habitat distribution and to manage the habitat in favour of capercaillie (protection and adapted forestry practices) in the Swiss Jura mountains.

Loss of Cutaneous TSLP-Dependent Immune Responses Skews the Balance of Inflammation from Tumor Protective to Tumor Promoting.

Inflammation can promote or inhibit cancer progression. In this study we have addressed the role of the proinflammatory cytokine thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) during skin carcinogenesis. Using conditional loss- and gain-of-function mouse models for Notch and Wnt signaling, respectively, we demonstrate that TSLP-mediated inflammation protects against cutaneous carcinogenesis by acting directly on CD4 and CD8 T cells. Genetic ablation of TSLP receptor (TSLPR) perturbs T-cell-mediated protection and results in the accumulation of CD11b(+)Gr1(+) myeloid cells. These promote tumor growth by secreting Wnt ligands and augmenting β-catenin signaling in the neighboring epithelium. Epithelial specific ablation of β-catenin prevents both carcinogenesis and the accumulation of CD11b(+)Gr1(+) myeloid cells, suggesting tumor cells initiate a feed-forward loop that induces protumorigenic inflammation.