Extent of non-publication in cohorts of studies approved by research ethics committees or included in trial registries

BACKGROUND: The synthesis of published research in systematic reviews is essential when providing evidence to inform clinical and health policy decision-making. However, the validity of systematic reviews is threatened if journal publications represent a biased selection of all studies that have been conducted (dissemination bias). To investigate the extent of dissemination bias we conducted a systematic review that determined the proportion of studies published as peer-reviewed journal articles and investigated factors associated with full publication in cohorts of studies (i) approved by research ethics committees (RECs) or (ii) included in trial registries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Four bibliographic databases were searched for methodological research projects (MRPs) without limitations for publication year, language or study location. The searches were supplemented by handsearching the references of included MRPs. We estimated the proportion of studies published using prediction intervals (PI) and a random effects meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratios (OR) were used to express associations between study characteristics and journal publication. Seventeen MRPs (23 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies approved by RECs; the proportion of published studies had a PI between 22% and 72% and the weighted pooled proportion when combining estimates would be 46.2% (95% CI 40.2%-52.4%, I2 = 94.4%). Twenty-two MRPs (22 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies included in trial registries; the PI of the proportion published ranged from 13% to 90% and the weighted pooled proportion would be 54.2% (95% CI 42.0%-65.9%, I2 = 98.9%). REC-approved studies with statistically significant results (compared with those without statistically significant results) were more likely to be published (pooled OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.2-3.5). Phase-III trials were also more likely to be published than phase II trials (pooled OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6-2.5). The probability of publication within two years after study completion ranged from 7% to 30%. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial part of the studies approved by RECs or included in trial registries remains unpublished. Due to the large heterogeneity a prediction of the publication probability for a future study is very uncertain. Non-publication of research is not a random process, e.g., it is associated with the direction of study findings. Our findings suggest that the dissemination of research findings is biased.

Genome-wide association study of recurrent major depressive disorder in two European case-control cohorts.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a highly prevalent disorder with substantial heritability. Heritability has been shown to be substantial and higher in the variant of MDD characterized by recurrent episodes of depression. Genetic studies have thus far failed to identify clear and consistent evidence of genetic risk factors for MDD. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in two independent datasets. The first GWAS was performed on 1022 recurrent MDD patients and 1000 controls genotyped on the Illumina 550 platform. The second was conducted on 492 recurrent MDD patients and 1052 controls selected from a population-based collection, genotyped on the Affymetrix 5.0 platform. Neither GWAS identified any SNP that achieved GWAS significance. We obtained imputed genotypes at the Illumina loci for the individuals genotyped on the Affymetrix platform, and performed a meta-analysis of the two GWASs for this common set of approximately half a million SNPs. The meta-analysis did not yield genome-wide significant results either. The results from our study suggest that SNPs with substantial odds ratio are unlikely to exist for MDD, at least in our datasets and among the relatively common SNPs genotyped or tagged by the half-million-loci arrays. Meta-analysis of larger datasets is warranted to identify SNPs with smaller effects or with rarer allele frequencies that contribute to the risk of MDD.

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Research on individual social policy preferences has highlighted a number of socio-structural cleavages as determinants. Studies investigating public opinion on the various redistributive schemes that make up today's welfare states have shown the relevance of class-related factors such as income or education as key explanatory variables (Ferrera 1993; Taylor-Gooby 1995, 1998; and Svallfors 1997). More recent studies, however, have suggested that other factors are also likely to play a role. Among these, the most important are age, gender, and individual values (Armingeon 2006; Deitch 2004; and Roller 2000, 2002). The scenario that emerges from the existing literature is one of multiple intersecting cleavages, but it remains unclear as to what today is the relative weight and specific impact of each of these cleavages.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of heart failure events: an individual participant data analysis from 6 prospective cohorts.

BACKGROUND: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for the diagnosis and management of heart failure recommend investigating exacerbating conditions such as thyroid dysfunction, but without specifying the impact of different thyroid-stimulation hormone (TSH) levels. Limited prospective data exist on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and heart failure events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a pooled analysis of individual participant data using all available prospective cohorts with thyroid function tests and subsequent follow-up of heart failure events. Individual data on 25 390 participants with 216 248 person-years of follow-up were supplied from 6 prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH of 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L, subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH of 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L, and subclinical hyperthyroidism as TSH <0.45 mIU/L, the last two with normal free thyroxine levels. Among 25 390 participants, 2068 (8.1%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 648 (2.6%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels (P for quadratic pattern <0.01); the hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.26) for TSH of 4.5 to 6.9 mIU/L, 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-3.23) for TSH of 7.0 to 9.9 mIU/L, 1.86 (95% confidence interval, 1.27-2.72) for TSH of 10.0 to 19.9 mIU/L (P for trend <0.01) and 1.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.95) for TSH of 0.10 to 0.44 mIU/L and 1.94 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-3.72) for TSH <0.10 mIU/L (P for trend=0.047). Risks remained similar after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: Risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels, particularly for TSH ≥10 and <0.10 mIU/L.

Health behaviours, socioeconomic status, and mortality: further analyses of the British Whitehall II and the French GAZEL prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND: Differences in morbidity and mortality between socioeconomic groups constitute one of the most consistent findings of epidemiologic research. However, research on social inequalities in health has yet to provide a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying this association. In recent analysis, we showed health behaviours, assessed longitudinally over the follow-up, to explain a major proportion of the association of socioeconomic status (SES) with mortality in the British Whitehall II study. However, whether health behaviours are equally important mediators of the SES-mortality association in different cultural settings remains unknown. In the present paper, we examine this issue in Whitehall II and another prospective European cohort, the French GAZEL study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We included 9,771 participants from the Whitehall II study and 17,760 from the GAZEL study. Over the follow-up (mean 19.5 y in Whitehall II and 16.5 y in GAZEL), health behaviours (smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity), were assessed longitudinally. Occupation (in the main analysis), education, and income (supplementary analysis) were the markers of SES. The socioeconomic gradient in smoking was greater (p<0.001) in Whitehall II (odds ratio [OR] = 3.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.11-4.36) than in GAZEL (OR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.18-1.49); this was also true for unhealthy diet (OR = 7.42, 95% CI 5.19-10.60 in Whitehall II and OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.15-1.49 in GAZEL, p<0.001). Socioeconomic differences in mortality were similar in the two cohorts, a hazard ratio of 1.62 (95% CI 1.28-2.05) in Whitehall II and 1.94 in GAZEL (95% CI 1.58-2.39) for lowest versus highest occupational position. Health behaviours attenuated the association of SES with mortality by 75% (95% CI 44%-149%) in Whitehall II but only by 19% (95% CI 13%-29%) in GAZEL. Analysis using education and income yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Health behaviours were strong predictors of mortality in both cohorts but their association with SES was remarkably different. Thus, health behaviours are likely to be major contributors of socioeconomic differences in health only in contexts with a marked social characterisation of health behaviours. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Simple estimation of incident HIV infection rates in notification cohorts based on window periods of algorithms for evaluation of line-immunoassay result patterns.

BACKGROUND: Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. METHODS: We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration' in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident' and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. RESULTS: Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R(2) = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. CONCLUSIONS: IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status: bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis of multiple cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used information from 21 adult cohorts (up to 42,024 participants) with 12 BMI-related SNPs (combined in an allelic score) to produce an instrument for BMI and four SNPs associated with 25(OH)D (combined in two allelic scores, separately for genes encoding its synthesis or metabolism) as an instrument for vitamin D. Regression estimates for the IVs (allele scores) were generated within-study and pooled by meta-analysis to generate summary effects. Associations between vitamin D scores and BMI were confirmed in the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium (n = 123,864). Each 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI was associated with 1.15% lower 25(OH)D (p = 6.52×10⁻²⁷). The BMI allele score was associated both with BMI (p = 6.30×10⁻⁶²) and 25(OH)D (-0.06% [95% CI -0.10 to -0.02], p = 0.004) in the cohorts that underwent meta-analysis. The two vitamin D allele scores were strongly associated with 25(OH)D (p≤8.07×10⁻⁵⁷ for both scores) but not with BMI (synthesis score, p = 0.88; metabolism score, p = 0.08) in the meta-analysis. A 10% higher genetically instrumented BMI was associated with 4.2% lower 25(OH)D concentrations (IV ratio: -4.2 [95% CI -7.1 to -1.3], p = 0.005). No association was seen for genetically instrumented 25(OH)D with BMI, a finding that was confirmed using data from the GIANT consortium (p≥0.57 for both vitamin D scores). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of a bi-directional genetic approach that limits confounding, our study suggests that a higher BMI leads to lower 25(OH)D, while any effects of lower 25(OH)D increasing BMI are likely to be small. Population level interventions to reduce BMI are expected to decrease the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.

Prevalence of vascular disease in systemic lupus erythematosus compared with type-1 diabetes mellitus: A cross-sectional study of two cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is associated with considerable cardiovascular morbidity that has not yet been directly compared with other diseases with known cardiovascular risk. METHODS: Two hundred and forty-one patients of the multicentre Swiss SLE cohort study (SSCS) were cross-sectionally assessed for coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD). SLE patients were compared with a cohort of 193 patients with type-1 diabetes mellitus being followed at the University Hospital Basel. A subgroup analysis of 50 age- and sex-matched patients from the University Hospital Basel was performed. RESULTS: Of patients within the SSCS 13.3% had one or more vascular events: 8.3% CHD, 5% CVD and 1.2% PAD. In type-1 diabetes mellitus patients, 15% had vascular events: 9.3% CHD, 3.1% CVD and 5.6% PAD. In the matched subgroup, 26% of SLE patients had vascular events (14% CHD) compared with 12% in type-1 DM patients (2% CHD). Cardiovascular risk factors were similar in both groups. Vascular events in SLE patients were associated with age, longer disease duration, dyslipidaemia, and hypertension. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular morbidity in SLE is at least as frequent as in age- and sex-matched type-1 diabetes mellitus patients. Therefore, aggressive screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors should be performed.

Genome-wide association study to identify common variants associated with brachial circumference: a meta-analysis of 14 cohorts.

Brachial circumference (BC), also known as upper arm or mid arm circumference, can be used as an indicator of muscle mass and fat tissue, which are distributed differently in men and women. Analysis of anthropometric measures of peripheral fat distribution such as BC could help in understanding the complex pathophysiology behind overweight and obesity. The purpose of this study is to identify genetic variants associated with BC through a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis. We used fixed-effects meta-analysis to synthesise summary results across 14 GWAS discovery and 4 replication cohorts comprising overall 22,376 individuals (12,031 women and 10,345 men) of European ancestry. Individual analyses were carried out for men, women, and combined across sexes using linear regression and an additive genetic model: adjusted for age and adjusted for age and BMI. We prioritised signals for follow-up in two-stages. We did not detect any signals reaching genome-wide significance. The FTO rs9939609 SNP showed nominal evidence for association (p<0.05) in the age-adjusted strata for men and across both sexes. In this first GWAS meta-analysis for BC to date, we have not identified any genome-wide significant signals and do not observe robust association of previously established obesity loci with BC. Large-scale collaborations will be necessary to achieve higher power to detect loci underlying BC.

Genetic polymorphisms of the main transcription factors for adiponectin gene promoter in regulation of adiponectin levels: association analysis in three European cohorts.

Adiponectin serum concentrations are an important biomarker in cardiovascular epidemiology with heritability etimates of 30-70%. However, known genetic variants in the adiponectin gene locus (ADIPOQ) account for only 2%-8% of its variance. As transcription factors are thought to play an under-acknowledged role in carrying functional variants, we hypothesized that genetic polymorphisms in genes coding for the main transcription factors for the ADIPOQ promoter influence adiponectin levels. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at these genes were selected based on the haplotype block structure and previously published evidence to be associated with adiponectin levels. We performed association analyses of the 24 selected SNPs at forkhead box O1 (FOXO1), sterol-regulatory-element-binding transcription factor 1 (SREBF1), sirtuin 1 (SIRT1), peroxisome-proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARG) and transcription factor activating enhancer binding protein 2 beta (TFAP2B) gene loci with adiponectin levels in three different European cohorts: SAPHIR (n = 1742), KORA F3 (n = 1636) and CoLaus (n = 5355). In each study population, the association of SNPs with adiponectin levels on log-scale was tested using linear regression adjusted for age, sex and body mass index, applying both an additive and a recessive genetic model. A pooled effect size was obtained by meta-analysis assuming a fixed effects model. We applied a significance threshold of 0.0033 accounting for the multiple testing situation. A significant association was only found for variants within SREBF1 applying an additive genetic model (smallest p-value for rs1889018 on log(adiponectin) = 0.002, β on original scale = -0.217 µg/ml), explaining ∼0.4% of variation of adiponectin levels. Recessive genetic models or haplotype analyses of the FOXO1, SREBF1, SIRT1, TFAPB2B genes or sex-stratified analyses did not reveal additional information on the regulation of adiponectin levels. The role of genetic variations at the SREBF1 gene in regulating adiponectin needs further investigation by functional studies.

How to interprete subclinical thyroid dysfunction in the prevention and management of heart failure events? Individual participant data analysis from six prospective cohorts

Background: Guidelines of the Diagnosis and Management of Heart Failure (HF) recommend investigating exacerbating conditions, such as thyroid dysfunction, but without specifying impact of different TSH levels. Limited prospective data exist regarding the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and HF events. Methods: We performed a pooled analysis of individual participant data using all available prospective cohorts with thyroid function tests and subsequent follow-up of HF events. Individual data on 25,390 participants with 216,247 person-years of follow-up were supplied from 6 prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH 0.45-4.49 mIU/L, subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH 4.5-19.9 mIU/L and subclinical hyperthyroidism as TSH <0.45 mIU/L, both with normal free thyroxine levels. HF events were defined as acute HF events, hospitalization or death related to HF events. Results: Among 25,390 participants, 2068 had subclinical hypothyroidism (8.1%) and 648 subclinical hyperthyroidism (2.6%). In age- and gender-adjusted analyses, risks of HF events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels (P for quadratic pattern<0.01): hazard ratio (HR) was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-1.26) for TSH 4.5-6.9 mIU/L, 1.65 (CI 0.84-3.23) for TSH 7.0-9.9 mIU/L, 1.86 (CI 1.27-2.72) for TSH 10.0-19.9 mIUL/L (P for trend <0.01), and was 1.31 (CI 0.88-1.95) for TSH 0.10-0.44 mIU/L and 1.94 (CI 1.01-3.72) for TSH <0.10 mIU/L (P for trend=0.047). Risks remained similar after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusion: Risks of HF events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels, particularly for TSH ≥10 mIU/L and for TSH <0.10 mIU/L. Our findings might help to interpret TSH levels in the prevention and investigation of HF.

Gender and socioeconomic disparities in BMI trajectories in the Seychelles using birth cohorts generated from serial population-based surveys.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and socioeconomic status (SES) tends to change over time and across populations. In this study, we examined, separately in men and women, whether the association between BMI and SES changed over successive birth cohorts in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region). METHODS: We used data from all participants in three surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004 in independent random samples of the population aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles (N= 3'403). We used linear regression to model mean BMI according to age, cohort, SES and smoking status, allowing for a quadratic term for age to account for a curvilinear relation between BMI and age and interactions between SES and age and between SES and cohorts to test whether the relation between SES and BMI changed across subsequent cohorts. All analyses were performed separately in men and women. RESULTS: BMI increased with age in all birth cohorts. BMI was lower in men of low SES than high SES but was higher in women of low SES than high SES. In all SES categories, BMI increased over successive cohorts (1.24 kg/m2 in men and 1.51 kg/m2 for a 10-year increase in birth cohorts, p <0.001). The difference in BMI between men or women of high vs. low SES did not change significantly across successive cohorts (the interaction between SES and year of birth of cohort was statistically not significant). Smoking was associated with lower BMI in men and women (respectively -1.55 kg/m2 and 2.46 kg/m2, p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although large differences exist between men and women, social patterning of BMI did not change significantly over successive cohorts in this population of a middle-income country in the African region.

Genome-wide association study of recurrent major depressive disorder in two European case-control cohorts.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a highly prevalent disorder with substantial heritability. Heritability has been shown to be substantial and higher in the variant of MDD characterized by recurrent episodes of depression. Genetic studies have thus far failed to identify clear and consistent evidence of genetic risk factors for MDD. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in two independent datasets. The first GWAS was performed on 1022 recurrent MDD patients and 1000 controls genotyped on the Illumina 550 platform. The second was conducted on 492 recurrent MDD patients and 1052 controls selected from a population-based collection, genotyped on the Affymetrix 5.0 platform. Neither GWAS identified any SNP that achieved GWAS significance. We obtained imputed genotypes at the Illumina loci for the individuals genotyped on the Affymetrix platform, and performed a meta-analysis of the two GWASs for this common set of approximately half a million SNPs. The meta-analysis did not yield genome-wide significant results either. The results from our study suggest that SNPs with substantial odds ratio are unlikely to exist for MDD, at least in our datasets and among the relatively common SNPs genotyped or tagged by the half-million-loci arrays. Meta-analysis of larger datasets is warranted to identify SNPs with smaller effects or with rarer allele frequencies that contribute to the risk of MDD.

The evolution of trans-generational altruism: kin selection meets niche construction.

A cornerstone result of sociobiology states that limited dispersal can induce kin competition to offset the kin selected benefits of altruism. Several mechanisms have been proposed to circumvent this dilemma but all assume that actors and recipients of altruism interact during the same time period. Here, this assumption is relaxed and a model is developed where individuals express an altruistic act, which results in posthumously helping relatives living in the future. The analysis of this model suggests that kin selected benefits can then feedback on the evolution of the trait in a way that promotes altruistic helping at high rates under limited dispersal. The decoupling of kin competition and kin selected benefits results from the fact that by helping relatives living in the future, an actor is helping individuals that are not in direct competition with itself. A direct consequence is that behaviours which actors gain by reducing the common good of present and future generations can be opposed by kin selection. The present model integrates niche-constructing traits with kin selection theory and delineates demographic and ecological conditions under which altruism can be selected for; and conditions where the 'tragedy of the commons' can be reduced.