Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

The role of basalt replenishment in the generation of basaltic andesites of the ongoing activity at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica: evidence from clinopyroxene and spinel

The bulk composition of magma erupted from Volcan Arenal has remained nearly constant (SiO2 = 53.6-54.9 wt%; MgO = 5.0-4.5 wt%) during almost 30 years of continuous activity (1969-1996). None the less, clinopyroxene (cpx) phenocrysts and their spinel inclusions record a much more complex open-system evolution in which steady-state production of the erupted basaltic andesitic magma is linked to episodic injections of basalt into Arenal's magma conduit/reservoir system. High-resolution major element zoning profiles (electron microprobe) on a large number of phenocrysts (>14,000 analyses), tied to back-scattered electron (BSE) images, have been used to assess the compositional characteristics of the magmatic end members as well as the timing and dynamics of magma replenishment events. No two cpx phenocrysts have exactly the same zoning profile. The vast majority of our analyses record the crystallization of cpx (Cr2O3 < 0.12 wt%; Mg# = 65-79; Al/Ti = 2-7) from a liquid comparable to or more evolved than erupted magma compositions. However, half of all cpx grains are cored by high-Cr cpx (Cr2O3 = 0.2-0.72 wt%) or contain similar basaltic compositions as abrupt growth bands in phenocrysts with and without high-Cr cores; phenocrysts with high-Cr cpx occur throughout the ongoing activity. In a few cases, high-Cr cpx occurs very near the outer margin of the grain without an apparent growth hiatus, particularly in 1968/69 and 1992/93. The main conclusions are: (1) all basaltic andesitic lavas erupted at Arenal during the ongoing activity that began in July, 1968, are the products of magma mixing, (2) clinopyroxenes record multiple replenishment events of basaltic magma in contrast to the near constancy of erupted bulk compositions, (3) some phenocrysts preserve records of multiple interactions with basaltic magmas requiring magmatic processes to operate on time-scales shorter than residence times of some phenocrysts, (4) multiple occurrences of clinopyroxene with high-Cr rims suggest that basalt replenishment events have occurred with sub-decadal frequency and may predate eruption by months or less. From this we infer that Arenal volcano is underlain by a continuously active, small-volume magmatic reservoir maintained in quasi-steady state by basalt recharge over several decades. The monotony of erupting Arenal magmas implies that fractionation, recharge, ascent, and eruption are well balanced in order for magmas to be essentially uniform while containing phenocrysts with vastly different growth histories at the time of eruption.

Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Inferring the degree of incipient speciation in secondary contact zones of closely related lineages of Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup).

Reproductive isolation between lineages is expected to accumulate with divergence time, but the time taken to speciate may strongly vary between different groups of organisms. In anuran amphibians, laboratory crosses can still produce viable hybrid offspring >20 My after separation, but the speed of speciation in closely related anuran lineages under natural conditions is poorly studied. Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup) offer an excellent system to address this question, comprising several lineages that arose at different times and form secondary contact zones. Using mitochondrial and nuclear markers, we previously demonstrated that in Sicily, B. siculus and B. balearicus developed advanced reproductive isolation after Plio-Pleistocene divergence (2.6 My, 3.3-1.9), with limited historic mtDNA introgression, scarce nuclear admixture, but low, if any, current gene flow. Here, we study genetic interactions between younger lineages of early Pleistocene divergence (1.9 My, 2.5-1.3) in northeastern Italy (B. balearicus, B. viridis). We find significantly more, asymmetric nuclear and wider, differential mtDNA introgression. The population structure seems to be molded by geographic distance and barriers (rivers), much more than by intrinsic genomic incompatibilities. These differences of hybridization between zones may be partly explained by differences in the duration of previous isolation. Scattered research on other anurans suggests that wide hybrid zones with strong introgression may develop when secondary contacts occur <2 My after divergence, whereas narrower zones with restricted gene flow form when divergence exceeds 3 My. Our study strengthens support for this rule of thumb by comparing lineages with different divergence times within the same radiation.

Mineral inventory of continuously erupting basaltic andesites at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica: implications for interpreting monotonous, crystal-rich, mafic arc stratigraphies

Except for the first 2 years since July 29, 1968, Arenal volcano has continuously erupted compositionally monotonous and phenocryst-rich (similar to35%) basaltic andesites composed of plagioclase (plag), orthopyroxene (opx), clinopyroxene (cpx), spinel olivine. Detailed textural and compositional analyses of phenocrysts, mineral inclusions, and microlites reveal comparable complexities in any given sample and identify mineral components that require a minimum of four crystallization environments. We suggest three distinct crystallization environments crystallized low Mg# (<78) silicate phases from andesitic magma but at different physical conditions, such as variable pressure of crystallization and water conditions. The dominant environment, i.e., the one which accounts for the majority of minerals and overprinted all other assemblages near rims of phenocrysts, cocrystallized clinopyroxene (Mg# similar to71-78), orthopyroxene (Mg# similar to71-78), titanomagnetite and plagioclase (An(60) to An(85)). The second environment cocrystallized clinopyroxene (Mg# 71-78), olivine (<Fo(78)), titanomagnetite, and very high An (similar to90) plagioclase, while the third cocrystallized clinopyroxene (Mg# 71-78) with high (>7) Al/Ti and high (>4 wt.%) Al2O3, titanomagnetite with considerable Al2O3 (10-18 wt.%) and possibly olivine but appears to lack plagioclase. A fourth crystallization environment is characterized by clinopyroxene (e.g., Mg#=similar to78-85; Cr2O3=0.15-0.7 wt.%), Al-, Cr-rich spinel olivine (similar toFo(80)), and in some circumstances high-An (>80) plagioclase. This assemblage seems to record mafic inputs into the Arenal system and crystallization at high to low pressures. Single crystals cannot be completely classified as xenocrysts, antecrysts (cognate crystals), or phenocrysts, because they often contain different parts each representing a different crystallization environment and thus belong to different categories. Bulk compositions are mostly too mafic to have crystallized the bulk of ferromagnesian minerals and thus likely do not represent liquid compositions. On the other hand, they are the cumulative products of multiple mixing events assembling melts and minerals from a variety of sources. The driving force for this multistage mixing evolution to generate erupting basaltic andesites is thought to be the ascent of mafic magma from lower crustal levels to subvolcanic depths which at the same time may also go through compositional modification by fractionation and assimilation of country rocks. Thus, mafic magmas become basaltic andesite through mixing, fractionation and assimilation by the time they arrive at subvolcanic depths. We infer new increments of basaltic andesite are supplied nearly continuously to the subvolcanic reservoir concurrently to the current eruption and that these new increments are blended into the residing, subvolcanic magma. Thus, the compositional monotony is mostly the product of repetitious production of very similar basaltic andesite. Furthermore, we propose that this quasi-constant supply of small increments of magma is the fundamental cause for small-scale, decade-long continuous volcanic activity; that is, the current eruption of Arenal is flux-controlled by inputs of mantle magmas. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Melt variability in percolated peridotite: an experimental study applied to reactive migration of tholeiitic basalt in the upper mantle

Melt-rock reaction in the upper mantle is recorded in a variety of ultramafic rocks and is an important process in modifying melt composition on its way from the source region towards the surface. This experimental study evaluates the compositional variability of tholeiitic basalts upon reaction with depleted peridotite at uppermost-mantle conditions. Infiltration-reaction processes are simulated by employing a three-layered set-up: primitive basaltic powder ('melt layer') is overlain by a 'peridotite layer' and a layer of vitreous carbon spheres ('melt trap'). Melt from the melt layer is forced to move through the peridotite layer into the melt trap. Experiments were conducted at 0.65 and 0.8 GPa in the temperature range 1,170-1,290 degrees C. In this P-T range, representing conditions encountered in the transition zone (thermal boundary layer) between the asthenosphere and the lithosphere underneath oceanic spreading centres, the melt is subjected to fractionation, and the peridotite is partially melting (T (s) similar to 1,260 degrees C). The effect of reaction between melt and peridotite on the melt composition was investigated across each experimental charge. Quenched melts in the peridotite layers display larger compositional variations than melt layer glasses. A difference between glasses in the melt and peridotite layer becomes more important at decreasing temperature through a combination of enrichment in incompatible elements in the melt layer and less efficient diffusive equilibration in the melt phase. At 1,290A degrees C, preferential dissolution of pyroxenes enriches the melt in silica and dilutes it in incompatible elements. Moreover, liquids become increasingly enriched in Cr(2)O(3) at higher temperatures due to the dissolution of spinel. Silica contents of liquids decrease at 1,260 degrees C, whereas incompatible elements start to concentrate in the melt due to increasing levels of crystallization. At the lowest temperatures investigated, increasing alkali contents cause silica to increase as a consequence of reactive fractionation. Pervasive percolation of tholeiitic basalt through an upper-mantle thermal boundary layer can thus impose a high-Si 'low-pressure' signature on MORB. This could explain opx + plag enrichment in shallow plagioclase peridotites and prolonged formation of olivine gabbros.

Graphical probabilistic analysis of the combination of items of evidence

Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the jointevaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, ratherthan systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable)propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative valueof a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual itemwithin a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To somedegree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inferencetasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particularcomplication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the referencemethod for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takesthis as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as frameworkwithin which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way.Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presentinginstances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness andcapacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multipleand interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference,their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawnto inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish thejoint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topicspresent aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because theyhave bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.

Facing the broader dimensions of biological invasions

Invasive species are an excellent opportunity to think about the nature society desires, particularly in the face of global changes. Nature and human views of nature are rapidly evolving; our approach to bio- logical invasions through biosecurity institutions and land management policies must evolve in tandem with these changes. We review three dimensions that are insufficiently addressed. First, biological inva- sions are culturally shaped and interpreted. Humans play a major role in the movement and nurturing of alien life, and esthetics, perception, and emotion are deeply implicated in the management of invasive species. What people fear or regret with invasive species are not their effects on nature per se, but their effects on a particular desired nature, and policymaking must reflect this. Second, biological invasions are not restricted to negative impacts. Invasions take place in landscapes where many natural condi- tions have been altered, so policy tools must recognize that invasive species are a functional, structural, and compositional part of transformed ecosystems. In some cases, native species benefit from changes in resource availability caused by invasions or from protections provided by an invasive plant. Finally, invasive species can help ecosystems and people to adapt to global change by maintaining ecosystem processes such as productivity, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling in a context of climate change or land cover transformations. While recognition is growing among ecologists that novel, invaded ecosystems have value, and while the on-the-ground application of biosecurity policies has of necessity adjusted to local contexts and other agendas, invasion biology could aid policymaking by better addressing the three complexities inherent in the three dimensions highlighted above.

Characterization of volatile organic gunshot residues in fired handgun cartridges by headspace sorptive extraction

In forensic investigation of firearm-related cases, determination of the residual amount of volatile compounds remaining inside a cartridge could be useful in estimating the time since its discharge. Published approaches are based on following the decrease of selected target compounds as a function of time by using solid phase micro-extraction (SPME). Naphthalene, as well as an unidentified decomposition product of nitrocellulose (referred to as "TEA2"), are usually employed for this purpose. However, reliability can be brought into question given their high volatility and the low reproducibility of their extracted quantities. In order to identify alternatives and therefore develop improved dating methods, an extensive study on the composition and variability of volatile residues in nine different types of cartridges was carried out. Analysis was performed using headspace sorptive extraction (HSSE), which is a more exhaustive technique compared to SPME. 166 compounds were identified (several of which for the first time), and it was observed that the final compositional characteristics of each residue were strongly dependent on its source. Variability of single identified compounds within and between different types of cartridge, as well as their evolution over time, was also studied. Many explosion products containing up to 4 aromatic rings were found to be globally present in high proportions amongst residues. 27 of them (excluding naphthalene) also presented detectable decreases during the first 24 h. Therefore, they could be used as complementary target analytes in future dating methods.

An analysis of protocols and publications suggested that most discontinuations of clinical trials were not based on preplanned interim analyses or stopping rules.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the frequency of interim analyses, stopping rules, and data safety and monitoring boards (DSMBs) in protocols of randomized controlled trials (RCTs); to examine these features across different reasons for trial discontinuation; and to identify discrepancies in reporting between protocols and publications. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used data from a cohort of RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by six research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. RESULTS: Of 894 RCT protocols, 289 prespecified interim analyses (32.3%), 153 stopping rules (17.1%), and 257 DSMBs (28.7%). Overall, 249 of 894 RCTs (27.9%) were prematurely discontinued; mostly due to reasons such as poor recruitment, administrative reasons, or unexpected harm. Forty-six of 249 RCTs (18.4%) were discontinued due to early benefit or futility; of those, 37 (80.4%) were stopped outside a formal interim analysis or stopping rule. Of 515 published RCTs, there were discrepancies between protocols and publications for interim analyses (21.1%), stopping rules (14.4%), and DSMBs (19.6%). CONCLUSION: Two-thirds of RCT protocols did not consider interim analyses, stopping rules, or DSMBs. Most RCTs discontinued for early benefit or futility were stopped without a prespecified mechanism. When assessing trial manuscripts, journals should require access to the protocol.

Il desiderio materno nei casi di maltrattamento infantile

The work of this thesis would like to investigate two particular questions about the care of underage: on the one hand, the maltreatment, and the mother's desire on the other hand. About the first, this proposal try to underscore the elaborate irregularity and disparity related to this phenomenon and his historical evolution. The objective's thesis propose to underline that the abuse crosses the crisis of educational dimension inside and outside the family. We are talking about a type of crisi that places at the origin of a specific clinic and that it is about the maltreatment designated, at the same time, to cope with the educational void and with the ill-treated under age's hardships. The so-called clinic of the maltreatment horns, therefore, with the purpose to join and to set in order the normative and educational aspects. However, the prescriptive requirement is intended to measure against the same one crisis in a paradoxical way; the laws and the juveniles court must make up for the lack absence of the rules that characterized the maltreatment, getting around to use the typical reference that traditionally were been at the base of the educational way's construction. The same crimes on underage often found in the father the responsibility. The requirements and the therapeutic needs has utilized the theoretical construct of the trauma as the key line of clinical practice. On the one hand, the trauma was been paired controversially to the psychoanalytical concepts as the notion of the phantom, in the same manner that the objective truth is been opposed to the notion of the imagination and fantasy; on the other hand, the trauma was gotten to be the mark and the characteristic that defined the individual identity of the mistreated persons, regardless of the person's clinical structure or, generally, regardless of the their individual position. Both the normative demand and therapeutic converge on the idealization of the imaginary figure that is able to supply to every type of maltreatment: the mother. This position is connected on theoretical construct well-established in the mythology, that associated the mother figure to a natural dimension; this is related to the second point at issue: the mother's desire. The awareness of the mother figure in natural and idealized terms describes accusingly and negatively the trauma, without seeing the difference between trauma that helps to give a structure to the individual position from the trauma solely devastating. The mother's mythology, therefore, is in an evident antagonism with the female figure and woman's sexuality. In these way the maltreatment's clinic suggests that a woman is able to be a mother only when she doesn't appreciate the rule of female. This situation preclusives a comparison with own sexuality and gives to the women a complex of castration. The clinic cases reported highlight as these difficulties are the expression of the familiarity's heredity that wasn't been sufficiently elaborated. This condition (into the relation between mother and his child) turn the infant in the incapacity to symbolized and it doesn't help him to accede to the positive trauma, to the language and to the edipic rule; this is the reason why the child toils difficulties to approach to own personality and to orient himself in the relation with his body, with the body of the adults and the same age children.

Forensic science - A true science ?

While the US jurisprudence of the 1993 Daubert requires judges to question not only the methodology behind, but also the principles governing, a body of knowledge to qualify it as scientific, can forensic science, based on Locard's and Kirk's Principles, pretend to this higher status in the courtroom ? Moving away from the disputable American legal debate, this historical and philosophical study will screen the relevance of the different logical epistemologies to recognize the scientific status of forensic science. As a consequence, the authors are supporting a call for its recognition as a science of its own, defined as the science of identifying and associating traces for investigative and security purposes, based o its fundamental principles and the case assesment and interpretation process that follows with its specific and relevant mode of inference.