The contribution of patch topology and demographic parameters to PVA predictions: the case of the European tree frog

Population viability analyses (PVA) are increasingly used in metapopulation conservation plans. Two major types of models are commonly used to assess vulnerability and to rank management options: population-based stochastic simulation models (PSM such as RAMAS or VORTEX) and stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOM). While the first set of models relies on explicit intrapatch dynamics and interpatch dispersal to predict population levels in space and time, the latter is based on spatially explicit metapopulation theory where the probability of patch occupation is predicted given the patch area and isolation (patch topology). We applied both approaches to a European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation in western Switzerland in order to evaluate the concordances of both models and their applications to conservation. Although some quantitative discrepancies appeared in terms of network occupancy and equilibrium population size, the two approaches were largely concordant regarding the ranking of patch values and sensitivities to parameters, which is encouraging given the differences in the underlying paradigms and input data.

Medication exposure during pregnancy: a pilot pharmacovigilance system using health and demographic surveillance platform.

BACKGROUND: There is limited safety information on most drugs used during pregnancy. This is especially true for medication against tropical diseases because pharmacovigilance systems are not much developed in these settings. The aim of the present study was to demonstrate feasibility of using Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) as a platform to monitor drug safety in pregnancy. METHODS: Pregnant women with gestational age below 20 weeks were recruited from Reproductive and Child Health (RCH) clinics or from monthly house visits carried out for the HDSS. A structured questionnaire was used to interview pregnant women. Participants were followed on monthly basis to record any new drug used as well as pregnancy outcome. RESULTS: 1089 pregnant women were recruited; 994 (91.3%) completed the follow-up until delivery. 98% women reported to have taken at least one medication during pregnancy, mainly those used in antenatal programmes. Other most reported drugs were analgesics (24%), antibiotics (17%), and antimalarial (15%), excluding IPTp. Artemether-lumefantrine (AL) was the most used antimalarial for treating illness by nearly 3/4 compared to other groups of malaria drugs. Overall, antimalarial and antibiotic exposures in pregnancy were not significantly associated with adverse pregnancy outcome. Iron and folic acid supplementation were associated with decreased risk of miscarriage/stillbirth (OR 0.1; 0.08 - 0.3). CONCLUSION: Almost all women were exposed to medication during pregnancy. Exposure to iron and folic acid had a beneficial effect on pregnancy outcome. HDSS proved to be a useful platform to establish a reliable pharmacovigilance system in resource-limited countries. Widening drug safety information is essential to facilitate evidence based risk-benefit decision for treatment during pregnancy, a major challenge with newly marketed medicines.

Three essays in behavioral and experimental economics

The present PhD dissertation consists of three papers, organized in chapters, in the field of behavioral economics. This discipline studies economic behavior of individuals subject to limitations, such as bounded self-interest and bounded willpower. The behavior studied in the present thesis ranges from the complex decision to register as an organ donor, decision¬making in the presence of uncertainty and the decision to give money to a charitable organization. The first chapter aims at testing the effectiveness of an active-decision (AD) mechanism on the decision to become an organ donor in Switzerland, using field experiments. We found that stimulating participants' reflection on the topic of organ donation had a negative effect on the decision to become an organ donor. Moreover, a non-binding commitment nudge reduces putting off the decision, but does not lead to donation rates higher than in the control group. The results suggest that AD may be far more limited than previously thought and raise doubts about the efficacy of engaging potential donors to reflect on the topic of organ donation. Beyond carrying for others, behavioral economics also recognizes that individuals do not evaluate outcomes in absolute terms but rather by comparing them to some reference levels, called reference points. Above the reference points, economic outcomes are perceived as gains, while below these levels the same outcomes are felt as losses. The last two chapters analyze the importance of reference points in the evaluation of economic outcomes. Using a laboratory experiment where subjects played two consecutive lotteries, Chapter 2 studies the speed of adjustment of the reference point. We find that varying the probability of winning the first lottery has no effect on subjects' risk behavior regarding the second lottery. This result indicates a very fast adjustment of the reference point to the latest information. Chapter 3 investigates whether reference points are relevant for charitable preferences. Using actual donation decisions of participants in a laboratory experiment, the results suggest that reference points are not crucial for shaping charitable giving. -- Cette thèse de doctorat consiste en trois articles, organisés en chapitres, dans le domaine de l'économie comportementale. Cette discipline étudie le comportement d'agents économiques sujets à des limitations, telles qu'un égoïsme limité et une volonté limitée. Le comportement étudié dans cette thèse va de la décision complexe de devenir donneur d'organes, la prise de décision en présence d'incertitude à la décision de donner de l'argent à une oeuvre caritative. Le premier chapitre vise à tester l'efficacité d'un mécanisme de « décision active » (active decision, AD) sur la décision de devenir donneur d'organes en Suisse, et ce en recourant à deux expériences hors-laboratoire. Les résultats montrent que stimuler la réflexion des participants sur le don d'organes a un effet négatif sur la décision de devenir donneur. De plus, un mécanisme qui encourage les participants à prendre une décision sur le champ réduit la tendance à procrastiner, mais ne mène pas à un taux de donneurs plus élevé par rapport à un groupe de contrôle. Les résultats suggèrent que le mécanisme AD est bien plus limité que ce qui a été supposé jusqu'à maintenant. De plus, ils suscitent le doute quant à l'efficacité de stimuler la réflexion de potentiels donneurs sur le sujet du don d'organes. En plus de se soucier des autres, l'économie comportementale admet également que les individus n'évaluent pas les résultats de façon absolue, mais en comparant ceux-ci à des niveaux de références, souvent appelés points de référence. Au-dessus de ces points de référence, les résultats sont perçus en tant que gains, tandis qu'en-dessous ces mêmes résultats sont considérés comme des pertes. Les deux derniers chapitres analysent l'importance des points de référence dans diverses situations. A l'aide d'une expérience en laboratoire dans laquelle les participants participent à deux loteries consécutives, le chapitre 2 étudie la vitesse d'ajustement du point de référence. Le résultat montre que varier la probabilité de gagner la première loterie n'a aucun effet sur le comportement en matière de risques concernant la deuxième loterie. Cela indique un ajustement très rapide du point de référence. Le chapitre 3 vise à déterminer si les points de référence ont un rôle majeur concernant les préférences caritatives. Les données relatives aux décisions de don des participants d'une expérience en laboratoire montrent que les points de référence n'influencent pas significativement le don caritatif.

The role of NFI-C liver regeneration and its potential function as a general regulator of regenerative processes

Collectively, research aimed to understand the regeneration of certain tissues has unveiled the existence of common key regulators. Knockout studies of the murine Nuclear Factor I-C (NFI-C) transcription factor revealed a misregulation of growth factor signaling, in particular that of transforming growth factor ß-1 (TGF-ßl), which led to alterations of skin wound healing and the growth of its appendages, suggesting it may be a general regulator of regenerative processes. We sought to investigate this further by determining whether NFI-C played a role in liver regeneration. Liver regeneration following two-thirds removal of the liver by partial hepatectomy (PH) is a well-established regenerative model whereby changes elicited in hepatocytes following injury lead to a rapid, phased proliferation. However, mechanisms controlling the action of liver proliferative factors such as transforming growth factor-ßl (TGF-ß1) and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) remain largely unknown. We show that the absence of NFI-C impaired hepatocyte proliferation due to an overexpression of PAI-1 and the subsequent suppression of urokinase plasminogen (uPA) activity and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) signaling, a potent hepatocyte mitogen. This indicated that NFI-C first acts to promote hepatocyte proliferation at the onset of liver regeneration in wildtype mice. The subsequent transient down regulation of NFI-C, as can be explained by a self- regulatory feedback loop with TGF-ßl, may limit the number of hepatocytes entering the first wave of cell division and/or prevent late initiations of mitosis. Overall, we conclude that NFI-C acts as a regulator of the phased hepatocyte proliferation during liver regeneration. Taken together with NFI-C's actions in other in vivo models of (re)generation, it is plausible that NFI-C may be a general regulator of regenerative processes. - L'ensemble des recherches visant à comprendre la régénération de certains tissus a permis de mettre en évidence l'existence de régulateurs-clés communs. L'étude des souris, dépourvues du gène codant pour le facteur de transcription NFI-C (Nuclear Factor I-C), a montré des dérèglements dans la signalisation de certains facteurs croissance, en particulier du TGF-ßl (transforming growth factor-ßl), ce qui conduit à des altérations de la cicatrisation de la peau et de la croissance des poils et des dents chez ces souris, suggérant que NFI-C pourrait être un régulateur général du processus de régénération. Nous avons cherché à approfondir cette question en déterminant si NFI-C joue un rôle dans la régénération du foie. La régénération du foie, induite par une hépatectomie partielle correspondant à l'ablation des deux-tiers du foie, constitue un modèle de régénération bien établi dans lequel la lésion induite conduit à la prolifération rapide des hépatocytes de façon synchronisée. Cependant, les mécanismes contrôlant l'action de facteurs de prolifération du foie, comme le facteur de croissance TGF-ßl et l'inhibiteur de l'activateur du plasminogène PAI-1 (plasminogen activator inhibitor-1), restent encore très méconnus. Nous avons pu montrer que l'absence de NFI-C affecte la prolifération des hépatocytes, occasionnée par la surexpression de PAI-1 et par la subséquente suppression de l'activité de la protéine uPA (urokinase plasminogen) et de la signalisation du facteur de croissance des hépatocytes HGF (hepatocyte growth factor), un mitogène puissant des hépatocytes. Cela indique que NFI-C agit en premier lieu pour promouvoir la prolifération des hépatocytes au début de la régénération du foie chez les souris de type sauvage. La subséquente baisse transitoire de NFI-C, pouvant s'expliquer par une boucle rétroactive d'autorégulation avec le facteur TGF-ßl, pourrait limiter le nombre d'hépatocytes qui entrent dans la première vague de division cellulaire et/ou inhiber l'initiation de la mitose tardive. L'ensemble de ces résultats nous a permis de conclure que NFI-C agit comme un régulateur de la prolifération des hépatocytes synchrones au cours de la régénération du foie.

Objective Sleep Structure and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the General Population: The HypnoLaus Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between objective sleep measures and metabolic syndrome (MS), hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: General population sample. PARTICIPANTS: There were 2,162 patients (51.2% women, mean age 58.4 ± 11.1). INTERVENTIONS: Patients were evaluated for hypertension, diabetes, overweight/obesity, and MS, and underwent a full polysomnography (PSG). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: PSG measured variables included: total sleep time (TST), percentage and time spent in slow wave sleep (SWS) and in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, sleep efficiency and arousal index (ArI). In univariate analyses, MS was associated with decreased TST, SWS, REM sleep, and sleep efficiency, and increased ArI. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, drugs that affect sleep and depression, the ArI remained significantly higher, but the difference disappeared in patients without significant sleep disordered breathing (SDB). Differences in sleep structure were also found according to the presence or absence of hypertension, diabetes, and overweight/obesity in univariate analysis. However, these differences were attenuated after multivariate adjustment and after excluding subjects with significant SDB. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based sample we found significant associations between sleep structure and MS, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. However, these associations were cancelled after multivariate adjustment. We conclude that normal variations in sleep contribute little if any to MS and associated disorders.

Acute schistosomiasis: a risk underestimated by travelers and a diagnosis frequently missed by general practitioners-a cluster analysis of 42 travelers.

BACKGROUND: In 2011, a patient was admitted to our hospital with acute schistosomiasis after having returned from Madagascar and having bathed at the Lily waterfalls. On the basis of this patient's indication, infection was suspected in 41 other subjects. This study investigated (1) the knowledge of the travelers about the risks of schistosomiasis and their related behavior to evaluate the appropriateness of prevention messages and (2) the diagnostic workup of symptomatic travelers by general practitioners to evaluate medical care of travelers with a history of freshwater exposure in tropical areas. METHODS: A questionnaire was sent to the 42 travelers with potential exposure to schistosomiasis. It focused on pre-travel knowledge of the disease, bathing conditions, clinical presentation, first suspected diagnosis, and treatment. RESULTS: Of the 42 questionnaires, 40 (95%) were returned, among which 37 travelers (92%) reported an exposure to freshwater, and 18 (45%) were aware of the risk of schistosomiasis. Among these latter subjects, 16 (89%) still reported an exposure to freshwater. Serology was positive in 28 (78%) of 36 exposed subjects at least 3 months after exposure. Of the 28 infected travelers, 23 (82%) exhibited symptoms and 16 (70%) consulted their general practitioner before the information about the outbreak had spread, but none of these patients had a serology for schistosomiasis done during the first consultation. CONCLUSIONS: The usual prevention message of avoiding freshwater contact when traveling in tropical regions had no impact on the behavior of these travelers, who still went swimming at the Lily waterfalls. This prevention message should, therefore, be either modified or abandoned. The clinical presentation of acute schistosomiasis is often misleading. General practitioners should at least request an eosinophil count, when confronted with a returning traveler with fever. If eosinophilia is detected, it should prompt the search for a parasitic disease.

Obese, smoker, and obese smoker : is there a general lifestyle gradient?

Aim: Obesity and smoking are major CVD risk factors and may be associated with other unfavourable lifestyle behaviours. Our aim was to investigate the significance of obesity, heavy smoking, and both combined in terms of prevalence trends and their relationship with other lifestyle factors. Methods: We used data from the population-based cross-sectional Swiss Health Survey (5 waves, 1992-2012) comprising 85,575 individuals aged 18 years. Height, weight, and smoking status were self-reported. We used multinomial logistic regression to analyse differences in lifestyle for the combinations of BMI category and smoking status, focusing on obese and heavy smokers. We defined normal-weight never smokers as reference.

Chemical profiling: a tool to decipher the structure and organisation of illicit drugs markets: an 8-year study in Western Switzerland

Illicit drug analyses usually focus on the identification and quantitation of questioned material to support the judicial process. In parallel, more and more laboratories develop physical and chemical profiling methods in a forensic intelligence perspective. The analysis of large databases resulting from this approach enables not only to draw tactical and operational intelligence, but may also contribute to the strategic overview of drugs markets. In Western Switzerland, the chemical analysis of illicit drug seizures is centralised in a laboratory hosted by the University of Lausanne. For over 8 years, this laboratory has analysed 5875 cocaine and 2728 heroin specimens, coming from respectively 1138 and 614 seizures operated by police and border guards or customs. Chemical (major and minor alkaloids, purity, cutting agents, chemical class), physical (packaging and appearance) as well as circumstantial (criminal case number, mass of drug seized, date and place of seizure) information are collated in a dedicated database for each specimen. The study capitalises on this extended database and defines several indicators to characterise the structure of drugs markets, to follow-up on their evolution and to compare cocaine and heroin markets. Relational, spatial, temporal and quantitative analyses of data reveal the emergence and importance of distribution networks. They enable to evaluate the cross-jurisdictional character of drug trafficking and the observation time of drug batches, as well as the quantity of drugs entering the market every year. Results highlight the stable nature of drugs markets over the years despite the very dynamic flows of distribution and consumption. This research work illustrates how the systematic analysis of forensic data may elicit knowledge on criminal activities at a strategic level. In combination with information from other sources, such knowledge can help to devise intelligence-based preventive and repressive measures and to discuss the impact of countermeasures.