A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

A new method for constructing exact tests without making any assumptions

We present a new method for constructing exact distribution-free tests (and confidence intervals) for variables that can generate more than two possible outcomes.This method separates the search for an exact test from the goal to create a non-randomized test. Randomization is used to extend any exact test relating to meansof variables with finitely many outcomes to variables with outcomes belonging to agiven bounded set. Tests in terms of variance and covariance are reduced to testsrelating to means. Randomness is then eliminated in a separate step.This method is used to create confidence intervals for the difference between twomeans (or variances) and tests of stochastic inequality and correlation.

On the upper bound of the number of limit cycles obtained by the second order averaging method I

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On the upper bound of the number of limit cycles obtained by the second order averaging method II

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A rotation method which gives linear Lp-Estimates for powers of the Ahlfors-Beurling operator

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Stability of periodic solutions obtained via the averaging method for nonsmooth Lipschitz system

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Hopf bifurcation in higher dimensional differential systems via the averaging method

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Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Simulación de fluidos inmiscibles con el Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM)

Proyecto de investigación realizado a partir de una estancia en el Centro Internacional de Métodos Computacionales en Ingeniería (CIMEC), Argentina, entre febrero y abril del 2007. La simulación numérica de problemas de mezclas mediante el Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM) es el marco de estudio de una futura tesis doctoral. Éste es un método desarrollado conjuntamente por el CIMEC y el Centre Internacional de Mètodos Numèrics en l'Enginyeria (CIMNE-UPC), basado en la resolución de las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes en formulación Lagrangiana. El mallador ha sido implementado y desarrollado por Dr. Nestor Calvo, investigador del CIMEC. El desarrollo del módulo de cálculo corresponde al trabajo de tesis de la beneficiaria. La correcta interacción entre ambas partes es fundamental para obtener resultados válidos. En esta memoria se explican los principales aspectos del mallador que fueron modificados (criterios de refinamiento geométrico) y los cambios introducidos en el módulo de cálculo (librería PETSc, algoritmo predictor-corrector) durante la estancia en el CIMEC. Por último, se muestran los resultados obtenidos en un problema de dos fluidos inmiscibles con transferencia de calor.

(No)competition in the Spanish retailing gasoline market: a variance filter approach

Various methodologies in economic literature have been used to analyse the international hydrocarbon retail sector. Nevertheless at a Spanish level these studies are much more recent and most conclude that generally there is no effective competition present in this market, regardless of the approach used. In this paper, in order to analyse the price levels in the Spanish petrol market, our starting hypothesis is that in uncompetitive markets the prices are higher and the standard deviation is lower. We use weekly retail petrol price data from the ten biggest Spanish cities, and apply Markov chains to fill the missing values for petrol 95 and diesel, and we also employ a variance filter. We conclude that this market demonstrates reduced price dispersion, regardless of brand or city.

A mixed finite element method for nonlinear diffusion equations

We propose a mixed finite element method for a class of nonlinear diffusion equations, which is based on their interpretation as gradient flows in optimal transportation metrics. We introduce an appropriate linearization of the optimal transport problem, which leads to a mixed symmetric formulation. This formulation preserves the maximum principle in case of the semi-discrete scheme as well as the fully discrete scheme for a certain class of problems. In addition solutions of the mixed formulation maintain exponential convergence in the relative entropy towards the steady state in case of a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation with uniformly convex potential. We demonstrate the behavior of the proposed scheme with 2D simulations of the porous medium equations and blow-up questions in the Patlak-Keller-Segel model.

Gaussian estimates for the density of the non-linear stochastic heat equation in any space dimension

In this paper, we establish lower and upper Gaussian bounds for the probability density of the mild solution to the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise and in any space dimension. The driving perturbation is a Gaussian noise which is white in time with some spatially homogeneous covariance. These estimates are obtained using tools of the Malliavin calculus. The most challenging part is the lower bound, which is obtained by adapting a general method developed by Kohatsu-Higa to the underlying spatially homogeneous Gaussian setting. Both lower and upper estimates have the same form: a Gaussian density with a variance which is equal to that of the mild solution of the corresponding linear equation with additive noise.

Giacomo Becattini and the Marshall's method. A Schumpeterian approach

The studies of Giacomo Becattini concerning the notion of the "Marshallian industrial district" have led a revolution in the field of economic development around the world. The paper offers an interpretation of the methodology adopted by Becattini. The roots are clearly Marshallian. Becattini proposes a return to the economy as a complex social science that operates in historical time. We adopt a Schumpeterian approach to the method in economic analysis in order to highlight the similarities between the Marshall and Becattini's approach. Finally the paper uses the distinction between logical time, real time and historical time which enable us to study the "localized" economic process in a Becattinian way.

Application of the combined integral method to Stefan problems

In this paper we present a new, accurate form of the heat balance integral method, termed the Combined Integral Method (or CIM). The application of this method to Stefan problems is discussed. For simple test cases the results are compared with exact and asymptotic limits. In particular, it is shown that the CIM is more accurate than the second order, large Stefan number, perturbation solution for a wide range of Stefan numbers. In the initial examples it is shown that the CIM reduces the standard problem, consisting of a PDE defined over a domain specified by an ODE, to the solution of one or two algebraic equations. The latter examples, where the boundary temperature varies with time, reduce to a set of three first order ODEs.