Efficacy of virtual reality for triggering smoking craving: relation with level of presence and nicotine dependence

Virtual Reality environments that reproduce typical contexts associated with tobacco use may be useful for aiding smoking cessation. The main objective of this study was to assess the capacity of eight environments to produce the craving to smoke and determine the relation of craving to nicotine dependence and level of presence. The results show that all the environments were able to generate the desire to smoke; a direct relation was found between sense of presence and craving.

Turkey's accession to the EU: interests, ideas and path dependence

The paper is divided into four sections. The first offers a critical assessment of explanations of both rationalist and constructivist approaches currently dominating European studies and assesses the notion of path dependence. The second and third sections analyse the role of both material interests and polity ideas in EU enlargement to Turkey, and conclude that explanations exclusively based on either strategic calculations or values and identities have significant shortcomings. The fourth section examines the institutional path of Turkey's candidacy to show how the course of action begun at Helsinki restricted the range of possible and legitimate options three years later in Copenhagen.

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Is real GDP stationary? Evidence from a panel unit root test with cross-sectional dependence and historical data

We use historical data that cover more than one century on real GDP for industrial countries and employ the Pesaran panel unit root test that allows for cross-sectional dependence to test for a unit root on real GDP. We find strong evidence against the unit root null. Our results are robust to the chosen group of countries and the sample period. Key words: real GDP stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, CIPS test. JEL Classification: C23, E32

Experimentation and Stages of Acquisition for Tobacco Consumption in Spanish Adolescents

One area which has been largely neglected when studying the acquisition of addiction to smoking with thetranstheoretical model is whether the individual had previously experimented with smoking. The importance of includingthe experimentation variable was supported by this research

Análisis del patrón de consumo de cánnabis en estudiantes universitarios

Se analiza el patrón de consumo de cannabis en una muestrade 580 jóvenes universitarios (88.4% mujeres, edad media21.4 años). Si bien se observa que proporcionalmente máshombres que mujeres consumen habitualmente cannabis, lamagnitud de consumo de los que se reconocen usuarios essimilar en ambos sexos. Se detecta que la dependencia percibidaal cannabis se incrementa en función de la magnitud de consumo.Existe una relación positiva entre consumo de tabaco yde cannabis: el 90% de los jóvenes que no ha probado nuncael tabaco tampoco ha probado nunca el cannabis, mientrasque menos del 15% de los fumadores habituales de tabaco sehallan en esa situación. Estos resultados sugieren la necesidadde abordajes conjuntos para la prevención del consumo de drogas,principalmente en lo que se refiere al tabaco y el cannabis

Modelling structural zeros in compositional data

This analysis was stimulated by the real data analysis problem of householdexpenditure data. The full dataset contains expenditure data for a sample of 1224 households. The expenditure is broken down at 2 hierarchical levels: 9 major levels (e.g. housing, food, utilities etc.) and 92 minor levels. There are also 5 factors and 5 covariates at the household level. Not surprisingly, there are a small number of zeros at the major level, but many zeros at the minor level. The question is how best to model the zeros. Clearly, models that tryto add a small amount to the zero terms are not appropriate in general as at least some of the zeros are clearly structural, e.g. alcohol/tobacco for households that are teetotal. The key question then is how to build suitable conditional models. For example, is the sub-composition of spendingexcluding alcohol/tobacco similar for teetotal and non-teetotal households?In other words, we are looking for sub-compositional independence. Also, what determines whether a household is teetotal? Can we assume that it is independent of the composition? In general, whether teetotal will clearly depend on the household level variables, so we need to be able to model this dependence. The other tricky question is that with zeros on more than onecomponent, we need to be able to model dependence and independence of zeros on the different components. Lastly, while some zeros are structural, others may not be, for example, for expenditure on durables, it may be chance as to whether a particular household spends money on durableswithin the sample period. This would clearly be distinguishable if we had longitudinal data, but may still be distinguishable by looking at the distribution, on the assumption that random zeros will usually be for situations where any non-zero expenditure is not small.While this analysis is based on around economic data, the ideas carry over tomany other situations, including geological data, where minerals may be missing for structural reasons (similar to alcohol), or missing because they occur only in random regions which may be missed in a sample (similar to the durables)

Attenuation of nicotine-induced antinociception, rewarding effects, and dependence in mu-opioid receptor knock-out mice

The involvement of μ-opioid receptors in different behavioral responses elicited by nicotine was explored by using μ-opioid receptor knock-out mice. The acute antinociceptive responses induced by nicotine in the tail-immersion and hot-plate tests were reduced in the mutant mice, whereas no difference between genotypes was observed in the locomotor responses. The rewarding effects induced by nicotine were then investigated using the conditioning place-preference paradigm. Nicotine produced rewarding responses in wild-type mice but failed to produce place preference in knock-out mice, indicating the inability of this drug to induce rewarding effects in the absence of μ-opioid receptors. Finally, the somatic expression of the nicotine withdrawal syndrome, precipitated in dependent mice by the injection of mecamylamine, was evaluated. Nicotine withdrawal was significantly attenuated in knock-out mutants when compared with wild-type mice. In summary, the present results show that μ-opioid receptors are involved in the rewarding responses induced by nicotine and participate in its antinociceptive responses and the expression of nicotine physical dependence.

A longitudinal study of environmental tobacco smoke exposure in children: parental self reports versus age dependent biomarkers

Background: Awareness of the negative effects of smoking on children's health prompted a decrease in the self-reporting of parental tobacco use in periodic surveys from most industrialized countries. Our aim is to assess changes between ETS exposure at the end of pregnancy and at 4 years of age determined by the parents' self-report and measurement of cotinine in age related biological matrices.Methods: The prospective birth cohort included 487 infants from Barcelona city (Spain). Mothers were asked about maternal and household smoking habit. Cord serum and children's urinary cotinine were analyzed in duplicate using a double antibody radioimmunoassay. Results: At 4 years of age, the median urinary cotinine level in children increased 1.4 or 3.5 times when father or mother smoked, respectively. Cotinine levels in children's urine statistically differentiated children from smoking mothers (Geometric Mean (GM) 19.7 ng/ml; 95% CI 16.83–23.01) and exposed homes (GM 7.1 ng/ml; 95% CI 5.61–8.99) compared with non-exposed homes (GM 4.5 ng/ml; 95% CI 3.71–5.48). Maternal self-reported ETS exposure in homes declined in the four year span between the two time periods from 42.2% to 31.0% (p < 0.01). Nevertheless, most of the children considered non-exposed by their mothers had detectable levels of cotinine above 1 ng/mL in their urine.Conclusion: We concluded that cotinine levels determined in cord blood and urine, respectively, were useful for categorizing the children exposed to smoking and showed that a certain increase in ETS exposure during the 4-year follow-up period occurred.

How important are tobacco prices in the propensity to start and quit smoking? An analysis of smoking histories from the Spanish National Health Survey

This paper analyses the effect of tobacco prices on the propensity tostart and quit smoking using a pool of the 1993, 1995 and 1997 editionsof the Spanish National Health Surveys. The estimates for severalparametric models of the hazard rate for starting and quitting suggestthat i) The public health measures applied as of 1992 have had asignificative effect on both reducing the hazard of starting andincreasing the hazard of quitting, ii) Prices have a very weak effect onthe hazard of starting in the male population and no significant effectin the female population, iii) The price floor of cigarrettes, proxiedby the average price of a pack of black cigarrettes, has a significanteffect on the quitting hazard which is robust across specifications andapplies to both men and women. The implied price elasticity of the timeup to quitting is situated around -1.4.

Modelling state dependence and feedback effects between poverty, employment and parental home emancipation among European youth

Youth is one of the phases in the life-cycle when some of the most decisivelife transitions take place. Entering the labour market or leaving parentalhome are events with important consequences for the economic well-beingof young adults. In this paper, the interrelationship between employment,residential emancipation and poverty dynamics is studied for eight Europeancountries by means of an econometric model with feedback effects. Resultsshow that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant.Evidence proves there is a strong causal effect between poverty andleaving home in Scandinavian countries, however, time in economic hardshipdoes not last long. In Southern Europe, instead, youth tend to leave theirparental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that ismore persistent. Past poverty has negative consequences on the likelihood ofemployment.

The so-called "Spanish model" - Tobacco industry strategies and its impact in Europe and Latin America

Background To demonstrate the tobacco industry rationale behind the "Spanish model" on non-smokers' protection in hospitality venues and the impact it had on some European and Latin American countries between 2006 and 2011. Methods Tobacco industry documents research triangulated against news and media reports. Results As an alternative to the successful implementation of 100% smoke-free policies, several European and Latin American countries introduced partial smoking bans based on the so-called "Spanish model", a legal framework widely advocated by parts of the hospitality industry with striking similarities to "accommodation programmes" promoted by the tobacco industry in the late 1990s. These developments started with the implementation of the Spanish tobacco control law (Ley 28/2005) in 2006 and have increased since then. Conclusion The Spanish experience demonstrates that partial smoking bans often resemble tobacco industry strategies and are used to spread a failed approach on international level. Researchers, advocates and policy makers should be aware of this ineffective policy.

Thermal activation and ATP dependence of the cytoskeleton remodeling dynamics

The cytoskeleton (CSK) is a nonequilibrium polymer network that uses hydrolyzable sources of free energy such as adenosine triphosphate (ATP) to remodel its internal structure. As in inert nonequilibrium soft materials, CSK remodeling has been associated with structural rearrangements driven by energy-activated processes. We carry out particle tracking and traction microscopy measurements of alveolar epithelial cells at various temperatures and ATP concentrations. We provide the first experimental evidence that the remodeling dynamics of the CSK is driven by structural rearrangements over free-energy barriers induced by thermally activated forces mediated by ATP. The measured activation energy of these forces is ~40kBTr (kB being the Boltzmann constant and Tr being the room temperature). Our experiments provide clues to understand the analogy between the dynamics of the living CSK and that of inert nonequilibrium soft materials.