The Timing of labor demand

We examine the timing of firms' operations in a formal model of labor demand. Merging a variety of data sets from Portugal from 1995-2004, we describe temporal patterns of firms' demand for labor and estimate production-functions and relative labor-demand equations. The results demonstrate the existence of substitution of employment across times of the day/week and show that legislated penalties for work at irregular hours induce firms to alter their operating schedules. The results suggest a role for such penalties in an unregulated labor market, such as the United States, in which unusually large fractions of work are performed at night and on weekends.

Non-invasive monitoring of diaphragmatic timing by means of surface contact sensors: an experimental study in dogs

Background: Non-invasive monitoring of respiratory muscle function is an area of increasing research interest, resulting in the appearance of new monitoring devices, one of these being piezoelectric contact sensors. The present study was designed to test whether the use of piezoelectric contact (non-invasive) sensors could be useful in respiratory monitoring, in particular in measuring the timing of diaphragmatic contraction.Methods: Experiments were performed in an animal model: three pentobarbital anesthetized mongrel dogs. The motion of the thoracic cage was acquired by means of a piezoelectric contact sensor placed on the costal wall. This signal is compared with direct measurements of the diaphragmatic muscle length, made by sonomicrometry. Furthermore, to assess the diaphragmatic function other respiratory signals were acquired: respiratory airflow and transdiaphragmatic pressure. Diaphragm contraction time was estimated with these four signals. Using diaphragm length signal as reference, contraction times estimated with the other three signals were compared with the contraction time estimated with diaphragm length signal.Results: The contraction time estimated with the TM signal tends to give a reading 0.06 seconds lower than the measure made with the DL signal (-0.21 and 0.00 for FL and DP signals, respectively), with a standard deviation of 0.05 seconds (0.08 and 0.06 for FL and DP signals, respectively). Correlation coefficients indicated a close link between time contraction estimated with TM signal and contraction time estimated with DL signal (a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.98, a reliability coefficient of 0.95, a slope of 1.01 and a Spearman's rank-order coefficient of 0.98). In general, correlation coefficients and mean and standard deviation of the difference were better in the inspiratory load respiratory test than in spontaneous ventilation tests.Conclusion: The technique presented in this work provides a non-invasive method to assess the timing of diaphragmatic contraction in canines, using a piezoelectric contact sensor placed on the costal wall.

Joint determinants of education enrolment and first birth timing in France and West Germany

We examined the reciprocal influence between educational decisions and the timing of first births, using the Family and Fertility Surveys of France and West Germany. Since these two processes are potentially endogenous, we modelled them jointly, using event history models. We hypothesise that the reciprocal impact of educational and fertility careers, as well as the impact of the common determinants of both processes, are gender specific and context specific.The results show a significant endogeneity for women and men in both countries. This endogeneity is stronger for women than for men, while no substantial differences are found between the two countries. Removing this shared and unobserved heterogeneity, the results show a stronger reciprocal impact between the processes for women than for men. A similar impact of being enrolled in education on first birth in both countries is found, while the effect of the birth (and especially of the pregnancy) of the first child on terminating one’s education appeared to be more marked in West Gernany than in France.

Timing of seasonal sales

We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores chooseseveral designs at the beginning of the season without knowingwich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have achance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionableones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of theseason, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing theirfashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods stillon the shelves, stores adjust downward their expectations that theyare carrying a fashionable design, and may have sales to capture thediscount market. Having a greater number of designs induces a storeto put one of them on sales earlier to test the market. Moreover,price competition in the discount market induces stores to startsales earlier because of a greater perceived first-mover advantage incapturing the discount market. More competition, perhaps due todecreases in the cost of product innovation, makes sales occur evenearlier. These results are consistent with the observation that thetrend toward earlier sales since mid-1970's coincides with increasingproduct varieties in fashion good markets and increasing storecompetition.

On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

The timing of foreign direct investment under uncertainty: Evidence from the Spanish banking sector

This paper investigates the timing of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the banking sector. The importance of this issue would arise from the existence of differential benefits associated to be the first entrant in a foreign location. Nevertheless, when uncertainty is considered, the existence of some Ownership-Location-Internalization (OLI) advantages can make FDI less reversible and/or more delayable and therefore it may be optimal for the firm to delay the investment until the uncertainty is resolved. In this paper, the nature of OLI advantages in the banking sector has been examined in order to propose a prognostic model of the timing of foreign direct investment. The model is then tested for the Spanish case using duration analysis.

The impact of eliminating a child benefit on birth timing and infant health

We study the effects of the cancellation of a sizeable child benefit in Spainon birth timing and neonatal health. In May 2010, the government announced that a2,500-euro universal "baby bonus" would stop being paid to babies born startingJanuary 1, 2011. We use detailed micro data from birth certificates from 2000 to 2011,and find that more than 2,000 families were able to anticipate the date of birth of theirbabies from (early) January 2011 to (late) December 2010 (for a total of about 10,000births a week nationally). This shifting took place in part via an increase as well as ananticipation of pre-programmed c-sections, seemingly mostly in private clinics. We findthat this shifting of birthdates resulted in a significant increase in the number ofborderline low birth weight babies, as well as a peak in neonatal mortality. The resultssuggest that announcement effects are important, and that families and healthprofessionals may face effective trade-offs when deciding on the timing (and method) ofbirth.

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.

Influence of emergence timing of weeds on the establishment of woody natives and ground cover species

Les invasions biològiques són produïdes per espècies transportades per l'home fora de la regió d'origen a altres regions on s'estableixen i expandeixen. Són actualment de les majors causes de perduda de biodiversitat, amb el canvi d'usos del sòl, tret rellevant en zones insulars. Comprendre mecanismes de competència amb les espècies autòctones és clau per gestionar el problema. L’experiment evidencia diferències de creixement de 7 plantes natives australianes (3 espècies d’eucaliptus, 3 espècies d’acàcia, 1 pasturatge natiu), competint intraespecífica (entre mateixa espècie) i interespecíficament (acàcies o eucaliptus convivint amb pasturatge natiu) plantejant tres tractaments (sense males herbes, males herbes i males herbes a posteriori) per definir la naturalesa de la interacció dels diferents tipus funcionals d'espècies. S’analitzen tendències temporals de creixement de plàntules, així com la supervivència. S’ha detectat una moderada correlació entre taxes de creixement d’espècies i mida de la llavor, (p ≈ 0.6), així com una correlació entre la supervivència i la humitat del sòl (p ≈ 0.5); efectes estacionals. A curt termini i en escenari de primavera la convivència amb males herbes reporta creixement nul. Tractaments sense males herbes, presenten major supervivència en escenaris en competència interespecífica. A llarg termini les espècies amb major supervivència són les que conviuen amb pasturatge natiu i sense males herbes, indicant un efecte beneficiós en espècies millor adaptades a la sequera (E. loxophleba).

Oscillations, phase-of-firing coding, and spike timing-dependent plasticity: an efficient learning scheme

Recent experiments have established that information can be encoded in the spike times of neurons relative to the phase of a background oscillation in the local field potential—a phenomenon referred to as “phase-of-firing coding” (PoFC). These firing phase preferences could result from combining an oscillation in the input current with a stimulus-dependent static component that would produce the variations in preferred phase, but it remains unclear whether these phases are an epiphenomenon or really affect neuronal interactions—only then could they have a functional role. Here we show that PoFC has a major impact on downstream learning and decoding with the now well established spike timing-dependent plasticity (STDP). To be precise, we demonstrate with simulations how a single neuron equipped with STDP robustly detects a pattern of input currents automatically encoded in the phases of a subset of its afferents, and repeating at random intervals. Remarkably, learning is possible even when only a small fraction of the afferents (~10%) exhibits PoFC. The ability of STDP to detect repeating patterns had been noted before in continuous activity, but it turns out that oscillations greatly facilitate learning. A benchmark with more conventional rate-based codes demonstrates the superiority of oscillations and PoFC for both STDP-based learning and the speed of decoding: the oscillation partially formats the input spike times, so that they mainly depend on the current input currents, and can be efficiently learned by STDP and then recognized in just one oscillation cycle. This suggests a major functional role for oscillatory brain activity that has been widely reported experimentally.

A performance lower bound for quadratic timing recovery accounting for the symbol transition density

The symbol transition density in a digitally modulated signal affects the performance of practical synchronization schemes designed for timing recovery. This paper focuses on the derivation of simple performance limits for the estimation of the time delay of a noisy linearly modulated signal in the presence of various degrees of symbol correlation produced by the varioustransition densities in the symbol streams. The paper develops high- and low-signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) approximations of the so-called (Gaussian) unconditional Cramér–Rao bound (UCRB),as well as general expressions that are applicable in all ranges of SNR. The derived bounds are valid only for the class of quadratic, non-data-aided (NDA) timing recovery schemes. To illustrate the validity of the derived bounds, they are compared with the actual performance achieved by some well-known quadratic NDA timing recovery schemes. The impact of the symbol transitiondensity on the classical threshold effect present in NDA timing recovery schemes is also analyzed. Previous work on performancebounds for timing recovery from various authors is generalized and unified in this contribution.

Conditional maximum likelihood timing recovery: estimators and bounds

This paper is concerned with the derivation of new estimators and performance bounds for the problem of timing estimation of (linearly) digitally modulated signals. The conditional maximum likelihood (CML) method is adopted, in contrast to the classical low-SNR unconditional ML (UML) formulationthat is systematically applied in the literature for the derivationof non-data-aided (NDA) timing-error-detectors (TEDs). A new CML TED is derived and proved to be self-noise free, in contrast to the conventional low-SNR-UML TED. In addition, the paper provides a derivation of the conditional Cramér–Rao Bound (CRB ), which is higher (less optimistic) than the modified CRB (MCRB)[which is only reached by decision-directed (DD) methods]. It is shown that the CRB is a lower bound on the asymptotic statisticalaccuracy of the set of consistent estimators that are quadratic with respect to the received signal. Although the obtained boundis not general, it applies to most NDA synchronizers proposed in the literature. A closed-form expression of the conditional CRBis obtained, and numerical results confirm that the CML TED attains the new bound for moderate to high Eg/No.

Waveform-independent frame-timing acquisition for UWB signals

In this paper, the problem of frame-level symboltiming acquisition for UWB signals is addressed. The main goalis the derivation of a frame-level timing estimator which does notrequire any prior knowledge of neither the transmitted symbolsnor the received template waveform. The independence withrespect to the received waveform is of special interest in UWBcommunication systems, where a fast and accurate estimation ofthe end-to-end channel response is a challenging and computationallydemanding task. The proposed estimator is derived under theunconditional maximum likelihood criterion, and because of thelow power of UWB signals, the low-SNR assumption is adopted. Asa result, an optimal frame-level timing estimator is derived whichoutperforms existing acquisition methods in low-SNR scenarios.

Asymptotic equivalence between the unconditional maximum likelihood and the square-law nonlinearity symbol timing estimation

This paper provides a systematic approach to theproblem of nondata aided symbol-timing estimation for linearmodulations. The study is performed under the unconditionalmaximum likelihood framework where the carrier-frequencyerror is included as a nuisance parameter in the mathematicalderivation. The second-order moments of the received signal arefound to be the sufficient statistics for the problem at hand and theyallow the provision of a robust performance in the presence of acarrier-frequency error uncertainty. We particularly focus on theexploitation of the cyclostationary property of linear modulations.This enables us to derive simple and closed-form symbol-timingestimators which are found to be based on the well-known squaretiming recovery method by Oerder and Meyr. Finally, we generalizethe OM method to the case of linear modulations withoffset formats. In this case, the square-law nonlinearity is foundto provide not only the symbol-timing but also the carrier-phaseerror.