Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Staffing strategies in SME's: determinants of external recruitment and internal promotion

The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of use internal or external labour market to fill a firm vacancy in SME’s taking into account the differences existing among blue and white collar jobs. Following different theories we can identify three main reasons for use internal candidates rather than external ones‐ firm specific knowledge, adverse selection problems and motivation‐. However, there are others factors that might affect this choice but the last theories don’t take into account. In this paper we try to shed some light on what are these other factors that may affect firm decision to use internal or external labour market. Particularly we analyses the relationship among new technologies, innovation activity and firm location on the staffing strategy. The results shows difference behaviour on the decision to fill a vacancy using internal or external labour markets between manufacturing and service firms, and this decision depends not only on firm internal characteristics, like technological complexity or innovation activity, but also on firm location. The results also support the hypothesis of ports of entry especially in the manufacturing sector.

Indicator taxa of benthic diatom communities: a case study in Mediterranean streams

A key issue in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive is the classification of streams and rivers using biological quality parameters and type-specific reference conditions. Four groups of stream types were defined in NE Spain on the basis of 152 diatom samples by means of detrended correspondence analysis and classification techniques. Diatom analysis was restricted to epilithic taxa, and the sites included gradients ranging from near-natural streams to sites with poor ecological quality. The main gradient shows a clear separation of sites in relation to the degree of human influence: polluted streams (mainly located in the lowlands) differ from streams in mountainous areas and in the Pyrenees. A second gradient is related to physiographical features. Headwater streams can be distinguished by their catchment geology. The type-specific diatom taxa for the stream types studied were determined by using indicator species analysis (IndVal). The type-specific taxa from near-natural streams are coincident with the indicator taxa for high ecological status. Human impact reduced the typological heterogeneity of the diatom community composition. Overall, the diatom communities in NE Spain exhibit a regional distribution pattern that closely corresponds with that observed in river systems elsewhere. Physiographical differences are only evident in undisturbed sites, while nutrient enrichment and other human disturbances may mask the regional differences in the distribution of diatom communities

Energy as an indicator of modernisation in Latin America by 1925

In absence of comparable macroeconomic indicators for most of the Latin American economiesbeyond the 1930s, this paper presents an estimate of the apparent consumption per head of coal and petroleum for 25 countries of Latin American and the Caribbean for the year 1925, doubling the number of countries for which energy consumption estimates were previously available. Energy consumption is then used as an indicator of economic modernisation. As a result, the paper provides the basis for a quantitative comparative analysis of modernisation performance beyond the few countries for which historical national accounts are available in Latin America.

Is football an indicator of development at the international level?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar si el fútbol puede ser considerado como un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Se ha diseñado un modelo econométrico empírico con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de niveles de PIB per cápita y del crecimiento del PIB. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación FIFA de las selecciones nacionales se puede utilizar para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de la información no es tan buena como los investigadores quisieran.

Is football an indicator of development at the international level?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar si el fútbol puede ser considerado como un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Se ha diseñado un modelo econométrico empírico con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de niveles de PIB per cápita y del crecimiento del PIB. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación FIFA de las selecciones nacionales se puede utilizar para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de la información no es tan buena como los investigadores quisieran.

Monitoring mortality as an indicator of influenza in Catalonia, Spain.

This study aimed to investigate the behaviour of two indicators of influenza activity in the area of Barcelona and to evaluate the usefulness of modelling them to improve the detection of influenza epidemics. DESIGN: Descriptive time series study using the number of deaths due to all causes registered by funeral services and reported cases of influenza-like illness. The study concentrated on five influenza seasons, from week 45 of 1988 to week 44 of 1993. The weekly number of deaths and cases of influenza-like illness registered were processed using identification of a time series ARIMA model. SETTING: Six large towns in the Barcelona province which have more than 60,000 inhabitants and funeral services in all of them. MAIN RESULTS: For mortality, the proposed model was an autoregressive one of order 2 (ARIMA (2,0,0)) and for morbidity it was one of order 3 (ARIMA (3,0,0)). Finally, the two time series were analysed together to facilitate the detection of possible implications between them. The joint study of the two series shows that the mortality series can be modelled separately from the reported morbidity series, but the morbidity series is influenced as much by the number of previous cases of influenza reported as by the previous mortality registered. CONCLUSIONS: The model based on general mortality is useful for detecting epidemic activity of influenza. However, because there is not an absolute gold standard that allows definition of the beginning of the epidemic, the final decision of when it is considered an epidemic and control measures recommended should be taken after evaluating all the indicators included in the influenza surveillance programme.

Ten years after the Prestige Oil Spill: seabird trophic ecology as indicator of long-term effects on the coastal marine ecosystem

Major oil spills can have long-term impacts since oil pollution does not only result in acute mortality of marine organisms, but also affects productivity levels, predator-prey dynamics, and damages habitats that support marine communities. However, despite the conservation implications of oil accidents, the monitoring and assessment of its lasting impacts still remains a difficult and daunting task. Here, we used European shags to evaluate the overall, lasting effects of the Prestige oil spill (2002) on the affected marine ecosystem. Using δ15N and Hg analysis, we trace temporal changes in feeding ecology potentially related to alterations of the food web due to the spill. Using climatic and oceanic data, we also investigate the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the chlorophyll a (Chl a) on the observed changes. Analysis of δ15N and Hg concentrations revealed that after the Prestige oil spill, shag chicks abruptly switched their trophic level from a diet based on a high percentage of demersal-benthic fish to a higher proportion of pelagic/semi-pelagic species. There was no evidence that Chl a, SST and NAO reflected any particular changes or severity in environmental conditions for any year or season that may explain the sudden change observed in trophic level. Thus, this study highlighted an impact on the marine food web for at least three years. Our results provide the best evidence to date of the long-term consequences of the Prestige oil spill. They also show how, regardless of wider oceanographic variability, lasting impacts on predator-prey dynamics can be assessed using biochemical markers. This is particularly useful if larger scale and longer term monitoring of all trophic levels is unfeasible due to limited funding or high ecosystem complexity.

The efficiency of indicator groups for the conservation of amphibians in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

The adequate selection of indicator groups of biodiversity is an important aspect of the systematic conservation planning. However, these assessments differ in the spatial scale, in the methods used and in the groups considered to accomplish this task, which generally produces contradictory results. The quantification of the spatial congruence between species richness and complementarity among different taxonomic groups is a fundamental step to identify potential indicator groups. Using a constructive approach, the main purposes of this study were to evaluate the performance and efficiency of eight potential indicator groups representing amphibian diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Data on the geographic range of amphibian species that occur in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest was overlapped to the full geographic extent of the biome, which was divided into a regular equal-area grid. Optimization routines based on the concept of complementarily were applied to verify the performance of each indicator group selected in relation to the representativeness of the amphibians in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest as a whole, which were solved by the algorithm"simulated annealing", through the use of the software MARXAN. Some indicator groups were substantially more effective than others in regards to the representation of the taxonomic groups assessed, which was confirmed by the high significance of data (F = 312.76; p < 0.01). Leiuperidae was considered as the best indicator group among the families analyzed, as it showed a good performance, representing 71% of amphibian species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (i.e. 290 species), which may be associated with the diffuse geographic distribution of its species. This study promotes understanding of how the diversity standards of amphibians can be informative for systematic conservation planning on a regional scale.

ESTRO-HERO survey: Guidelines for equipment and staffing of radiotherapy facilities in the European countries: Final results of the ESTRO-HERO survey

Background and purpose: In planning to meet evidence based needs for radiotherapy, guidelines for the provision of capital and human resources are central if access, quality and safety are not to be compromised. A component of the ESTRO-HERO (Health Economics in Radiation Oncology) project is to document the current availability and content of guidelines for radiotherapy in Europe. Materials and methods: An 84 part questionnaire was distributed to the European countries through their national scientific and professional radiotherapy societies with 30 items relating to the availability of guidelines for equipment and staffing and selected operational issues. Twenty-nine countries provided full or partial evaluable responses. Results: The availability of guidelines across Europe is far from uniform. The metrics used for capital and human resources are variable. There seem to have been no major changes in the availability or specifics of guidelines over the ten-year period since the QUARTS study with the exception of the recent expansion of RTT staffing models. Where comparison is possible it appears that staffing for radiation oncologists, medical physicists and particularly RTTs tend to exceed guidelines suggesting developments in clinical radiotherapy are moving faster than guideline updating. Conclusion: The efficient provision of safe, high quality radiotherapy services would benefit from the availability of well-structured guidelines for capital and human resources, based on agreed upon metrics, which could be linked to detailed estimates of need

ESTRO-HERO survey: Radiotherapy staffing in the European countries: Final results from the ESTRO-HERO survey

Background: The ESTRO Health Economics in Radiation Oncology (HERO) project has the overall aim to develop a knowledge base of the provision of radiotherapy in Europe and build a model for health economic evaluation of radiation treatments at the European level. The first milestone was to assess the availability of radiotherapy resources within Europe. This paper presents the personnel data collected in the ESTRO HERO database. Materials and methods: An 84-item questionnaire was sent out to European countries, through their national scientific and professional radiotherapy societies. The current report includes a detailed analysis of radiotherapy staffing (questionnaire items 4760), analysed in relation to the annual number of treatment courses and the socio-economic status of the countries. The analysis was conducted between February and July 2014, and is based on validated responses from 24 of the 40 European countries defined by the European Cancer Observatory (ECO). Results: A large variation between countries was found for most parameters studied. Averages and ranges for personnel numbers per million inhabitants are 12.8 (2.530.9) for radiation oncologists, 7.6 (019.7) for medical physicists, 3.5 (012.6) for dosimetrists, 26.6 (1.978) for RTTs and 14.8 (0.461.0) for radiotherapy nurses. The combined average for physicists and dosimetrists is 9.8 per million inhabitants and 36.9 for RTT and nurses. Radiation oncologists on average treat 208.9 courses per year (range: 99.9348.8), physicists and dosimetrists conjointly treat 303.3 courses (range: 85757.7) and RTT and nurses 76.8 (range: 25.7156.8). In countries with higher GNI per capita, all personnel categories treat fewer courses per annum than in less affluent countries. This relationship is most evident for RTTs and nurses. Different clusters of countries can be distinguished on the basis of available personnel resources and socio-economic status. Conclusions: The average personnel figures in Europe are now consistent with, or even more favourable than the QUARTS recommendations, probably reflecting a combination of better availability as such, in parallel with the current use of more complex treatments than a decade ago. A considerable variation in available personnel and delivered courses per year however persists among the highest and lowest staffing levels. This not only reflects the variation in cancer incidence and socio-economic determinants, but also the stage in technology adoption along with treatment complexity and the different professional roles and responsibilities within each country. Our data underpin the need for accurate prediction models and long-term education and training programmes

Material flow accounting of Spain

Material throughput is a means of measuring the so-called social metabolism, or physical dimensions of a society’s consumption, and can be taken as an indirect and approximate indicator of sustainability. Material flow accounting can be used to test the dematerialisation hypothesis, the idea that technological progress causes a decrease in total material used (strong dematerialisation) or material used per monetary unit of output (weak dematerialisation). This paper sets out the results of a material flow analysis for Spain for the period from 1980 to 2000. The analysis reveals that neither strong nor weak dematerialisation took place during the period analysed. Although the population did not increase considerably, materials mobilised by the Spanish economy (DMI) increased by 85% in absolute terms, surpassing GDP growth. In addition, Spain became more dependent on external trade in physical terms. In fact, its imports are more than twice the amount of its exports in terms of weight.

The spatial effect of intra-metropolitan agglomeration economies

This study deals with the role of spatial accessibility to agglomeration economies in the change in spatial structure of industrial employment for the case of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region of Barcelona (BMR). Using the growth in gross density of municipal employment between 1986 and 1996 for seven manufacturing industries as an indicator of changes in the spatial structure of employment, an exploration is made of the spatial impact of agglomeration economies operating on a local scale the municipality and three areas 5, 8 and 12 kilometres away surrounding the municipality itself - , agglomeration economies emerging from CBD and the main specialised subcentres in the region, and the network economies associated with the total jobs in the region, access to which depends on the distance from the main transport infrastructures

Degradació en planta pilot de colorants reactius mitjançant el procés de foto-Fenton assistit amb llum solar: aplicació del procés com a pre-tractament d'un procés biològic

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Plataforma Solar de Almería entre desembre del 2006 i gener del 2007. S’ha dut a terme la degradació en planta pilot dels colorants reactius Procion Red H-E7B i Cibacron Red FN-R mitjançant el procés de foto-Fenton aplicat com a tractament únic i com a pretractament d’un procés biològic. El procés de foto-Fenton, assistit amb llum solar, es va realitzar en un fotoreactor solar tipus Col•lector Parabòlic Compost (CPC) i el tractament biològic en un Reactor de Biomassa Immobilitzada (RBI). Com a punt de partida, i amb l’objectiu d’estudiar la reproductibilitat del sistema, es van prendre resultats obtinguts d’experiments realitzats prèviament a escala de laboratori i amb llum artificial. El paràmetre Carboni Orgànic Total (COT) es va emprar com a indicador de l’eliminació dels colorants i dels seus intermedis. En aplicar únicament el procés de foto-Fenton com a tractament, concentracions de 10 mg•l-1 de Fe (II) i 250 mg•l-1 de H2O2 per degradar 250 mg•l-1 Procion Red H-E7B, i de 20 mg•l-1 de Fe (II) i 500 mg•l-1 de H2O2 per degradar 250 mg•l-1 Cibacron Red FN-R, van reproduir els resultants obtinguts al laboratori, amb uns nivells d’eliminació de COT del 82 i 86%, respectivament. A més, l’ús beneficiós de la llum solar en el procés de foto-Fenton, juntament amb la configuració del CPC, van incrementar la velocitat de degradació respecte als resultats previs, permetent la reducció de la concentració de Fe (II) de 10 a 2 mg•l-1 (Procion Red H-E7B) i de 20 a 5 mg•l-1 (Cibacron Red FN-R) sense pèrdues d’efectivitat. D’altre banda, el sistema combinat foto-Fenton/tractament biològic en planta pilot, unes concentracions d’oxidant de 225 mg•l-1 H2O2 per Cibacron Red FN-R i 65 mg•l-1 H2O2 per Procion Red H-E7B van ser suficients per generar solucions intermèdies biodegradables i alimentar així el RBI, millorant inclús els resultats obtinguts prèviament al laboratori.