Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity

I study the effects of the heterogeneity of traders'horizon in the context of a 2-period NREE model whereall traders are risk averse. Owing to inventory effects,myopic trading behavior generates multiplicity ofequilibria. In particular, two distinct patterns arise.Along the first equilibrium, short term tradersanticipate higher second period price reaction toinformation arrival and, owing to risk aversion,scale back their trading intensity. This, in turn,reduces both risk sharing and information impoundinginto prices enforcing a high returns' volatility-lowprice informativeness equilibrium. In the second one,the opposite happens and a low volatility-high priceinformativeness equilibrium arises.

Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit

Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

Optimal coexistence of long-term and short-term contracts in labor Markets

We consider a market where firms hire workers to run their projects and such projects differ in profitability. At any period, each firm needs two workers to successfully run its project: a junior agent, with no specific skills, and a senior worker, whose effort is not verifiable. Senior workers differ in ability and their competence is revealed after they have worked as juniors in the market. We study the length of the contractual relationships between firms and workers in an environment where the matching between firms and workers is the result of market interaction. We show that, despite in a one-firm-one-worker set-up long-term contracts are the optimal choice for firms, market forces often induce firms to use short-term contracts. Unless the market only consists of firms with very profitable projects, firms operating highly profitable projects offer short-term contracts to ensure the service of high-ability workers and those with less lucrative projects also use short-term contracts to save on the junior workers' wage. Intermediate firms may (or may not) hire workers through long-term contracts.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Why do emerging economies borrow short term?

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaperthan borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as in these episodes therelative cost of long-term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereignbond prices, returns, and issuances at di¤erent maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher riskpremium on long-term than on short-term bonds. During crises, the di¤erence between the tworisk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities. To illustrate our argument,we present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharingproblem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk averse internationalinvestors.

Short-term oleoyl-estrone treatment affects capacity to manage lipids in rat adipose tissue

Background: Short-term OE (oleoyl-estrone) treatment causes significant decreases in rat weight mainly due to adipose tissue loss. The aim of this work was to determine if OE treatment affects the expression of genes that regulate lipid metabolism in white adipose tissue. Results: Gene expression in adipose tissue from female treated rats (48 hours) was analysed by hybridization to cDNA arrays and levels of specific mRNAs were determined by real-time PCR. Treatment with OE decreased the expression of 232 genes and up-regulated 75 other genes in mesenteric white adipose tissue. The use of real-time PCR validate that, in mesenteric white adipose tissue, mRNA levels for Lipoprotein Lipase (LPL) were decreased by 52%, those of Fatty Acid Synthase (FAS) by 95%, those of Hormone Sensible Lipase (HSL) by 32%, those of Acetyl CoA Carboxylase (ACC) by 92%, those of Carnitine Palmitoyltransferase 1b (CPT1b) by 45%, and those of Fatty Acid Transport Protein 1 (FATP1) and Adipocyte Fatty Acid Binding Protein (FABP4) by 52% and 49%, respectively. Conversely, Tumour Necrosis Factor (TNF¿) values showed overexpression (198%). Conclusion: Short-term treatment with OE affects adipose tissue capacity to extract fatty acids from lipoproteins and to deal with fatty acid transport and metabolism.

The psychosocial difficulties in brain disorders that explain short term changes in health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: This study identifies a set of psychosocial difficulties that are associated with short term changes in health outcomes across a heterogeneous set of brain disorders, neurological and psychiatric. METHODS: Longitudinal observational study over approximately 12 weeks with three time points of assessment and 741 patients with depression, bipolar disorders, multiple sclerosis, parkinson's disease, migraine, traumatic brain injury and stroke. The data on disability was collected with the checklist of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. The selected health outcomes were the Short Form 36 and the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule. Multilevel models for change were applied controlling for age, gender and disease severity. RESULTS: The psychosocial difficulties that explain the variability and change over time of the selected health outcomes were energy and drive, sleep, and emotional functions, and a broad range of activities and participation domains, such as solving problems, conversation, areas of mobility and self-care, relationships, community life and recreation and leisure. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are of interest to researchers and clinicians for interventions and health systems planning as they show that in addition to difficulties that are diagnostic criteria of these disorders, there are other difficulties that explain small changes in health outcomes over short periods of time.

Hippocampal Theta-Phase Modulation of Replay Correlates with Configural-Relational Short-Term Memory Performance

Thereis now growing evidencethatthe hippocampus generatestheta rhythmsthat can phase biasfast neural oscillationsinthe neocortex, allowing coordination of widespread fast oscillatory populations outside limbic areas. A recent magnetoencephalographic study showed that maintenance of configural-relational scene information in a delayed match-to-sample (DMS) task was associated with replay of that information during the delay period. The periodicity of the replay was coordinated by the phase of the ongoing theta rhythm, and the degree of theta coordination during the delay period was positively correlated with DMS performance. Here, we reanalyzed these data to investigate which brain regions were involved in generating the theta oscillations that coordinated the periodic replay of configural- relational information. We used a beamformer algorithm to produce estimates of regional theta rhythms and constructed volumetric images of the phase-locking between the local theta cycle and the instances of replay (in the 13- 80 Hz band). We found that individual differences in DMS performancefor configural-relational associations were relatedtothe degree of phase coupling of instances of cortical reactivations to theta oscillations generated in the right posterior hippocampus and the right inferior frontal gyrus. This demonstrates that the timing of memory reactivations in humans is biased toward hippocampal theta phase

Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

Short- and long-term changes in chromosomal inversion polymorphism and global warming: Drosophila subobscura from the Balkans

The chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura is adaptive to environmental changes. The population of Petnica, Serbia, was chosen to analyze short- and long-term changes in this polymorphism. Short-term changes were studied in the samples collected in May, June, and August of 1995. The inversion polymorphism varied over these months, although various interpretations are possible. To analyze long-term changes, samples obtained in May 1995 and May 2010 were compared. The frequency of the 'cold' adapted inversions (Ast, Jst, Ust, Est, and Ost) decreased and that of the 'warm' adapted inversions (A2, J1, U1+2, and O3+4) increased, from 1995 to 2010. These changes are consistent with the general increase in temperature recorded in Petnica for the same period. Finally, the possible response of chromosomal polymorphism to global warming was analyzed at the regional level (Balkan peninsula). This polymorphism depends on the ecological conditions of the populations, and the changes observed appear to be consistent with global warming expectations. Natural selection seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the evolution of this chromosomal polymorphism.

Short- and long-term changes in chromosomal inversion polymorphism and global warming: Drosophila subobscura from the Balkans

The chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura is adaptive to environmental changes. The population of Petnica, Serbia, was chosen to analyze short- and long-term changes in this polymorphism. Short-term changes were studied in the samples collected in May, June, and August of 1995. The inversion polymorphism varied over these months, although various interpretations are possible. To analyze long-term changes, samples obtained in May 1995 and May 2010 were compared. The frequency of the 'cold' adapted inversions (Ast, Jst, Ust, Est, and Ost) decreased and that of the 'warm' adapted inversions (A2, J1, U1+2, and O3+4) increased, from 1995 to 2010. These changes are consistent with the general increase in temperature recorded in Petnica for the same period. Finally, the possible response of chromosomal polymorphism to global warming was analyzed at the regional level (Balkan peninsula). This polymorphism depends on the ecological conditions of the populations, and the changes observed appear to be consistent with global warming expectations. Natural selection seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the evolution of this chromosomal polymorphism.

Small firms, growth and financial constraints

This paper analyses the impact of different sources of finance on the growth of firms. Using panel data from Spanish manufacturing firms for the period 2000-2006, we investigate the effects of internal and external finances on firm growth. In particular, we examine three dimensions of these financial sources: a) the performance of the firms’ capital structure in accordance with firm size; b) the effects of internal and external financial sources on growth performance; c) the combined effect of equity, external debt and cash flow on firm growth. We find that low-growth firms are sensitive to cash flow and short-term bank debt, while high-growth firms are more sensitive to long-term debt. Furthermore, equity capital seems to reduce barriers to external finance. Our main conclusion is that during the start-up phase, firms are unable to increase their financial leverage and so their capital structure fails to promote correct investment strategies. However, as their equity capital increases, alternative financial mechanisms, in particular long-term debt, become available, which have a positive impact on firm growth.

Longer-term impacts of mentoring, educational services, and incentives to learn: evidence from a randomized trial in the United States

This paper is the first to use a randomized trial in the US to analyze the short- and long-term educational and employment impacts of an afterschool program that offered disadvantaged high-school youth: mentoring, educational services, and financial rewards with the objective to improve high-school graduation and postsecondary schooling enrollment. The short-term hefty beneficial average impacts quickly faded away. Heterogeneity matters. While encouraging results are found for younger youth, and when the program is implemented in relatively small communities of 9th graders; detrimental longlived outcomes are found for males, and when case managers are partially compensated by incentive payments and students receive more regular reminders of incentives.