Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit

Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

Optimal coexistence of long-term and short-term contracts in labor Markets

We consider a market where firms hire workers to run their projects and such projects differ in profitability. At any period, each firm needs two workers to successfully run its project: a junior agent, with no specific skills, and a senior worker, whose effort is not verifiable. Senior workers differ in ability and their competence is revealed after they have worked as juniors in the market. We study the length of the contractual relationships between firms and workers in an environment where the matching between firms and workers is the result of market interaction. We show that, despite in a one-firm-one-worker set-up long-term contracts are the optimal choice for firms, market forces often induce firms to use short-term contracts. Unless the market only consists of firms with very profitable projects, firms operating highly profitable projects offer short-term contracts to ensure the service of high-ability workers and those with less lucrative projects also use short-term contracts to save on the junior workers' wage. Intermediate firms may (or may not) hire workers through long-term contracts.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity

I study the effects of the heterogeneity of traders'horizon in the context of a 2-period NREE model whereall traders are risk averse. Owing to inventory effects,myopic trading behavior generates multiplicity ofequilibria. In particular, two distinct patterns arise.Along the first equilibrium, short term tradersanticipate higher second period price reaction toinformation arrival and, owing to risk aversion,scale back their trading intensity. This, in turn,reduces both risk sharing and information impoundinginto prices enforcing a high returns' volatility-lowprice informativeness equilibrium. In the second one,the opposite happens and a low volatility-high priceinformativeness equilibrium arises.

Why do emerging economies borrow short term?

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaperthan borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as in these episodes therelative cost of long-term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereignbond prices, returns, and issuances at di¤erent maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher riskpremium on long-term than on short-term bonds. During crises, the di¤erence between the tworisk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities. To illustrate our argument,we present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharingproblem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk averse internationalinvestors.

Short-term oleoyl-estrone treatment affects capacity to manage lipids in rat adipose tissue

Background: Short-term OE (oleoyl-estrone) treatment causes significant decreases in rat weight mainly due to adipose tissue loss. The aim of this work was to determine if OE treatment affects the expression of genes that regulate lipid metabolism in white adipose tissue. Results: Gene expression in adipose tissue from female treated rats (48 hours) was analysed by hybridization to cDNA arrays and levels of specific mRNAs were determined by real-time PCR. Treatment with OE decreased the expression of 232 genes and up-regulated 75 other genes in mesenteric white adipose tissue. The use of real-time PCR validate that, in mesenteric white adipose tissue, mRNA levels for Lipoprotein Lipase (LPL) were decreased by 52%, those of Fatty Acid Synthase (FAS) by 95%, those of Hormone Sensible Lipase (HSL) by 32%, those of Acetyl CoA Carboxylase (ACC) by 92%, those of Carnitine Palmitoyltransferase 1b (CPT1b) by 45%, and those of Fatty Acid Transport Protein 1 (FATP1) and Adipocyte Fatty Acid Binding Protein (FABP4) by 52% and 49%, respectively. Conversely, Tumour Necrosis Factor (TNF¿) values showed overexpression (198%). Conclusion: Short-term treatment with OE affects adipose tissue capacity to extract fatty acids from lipoproteins and to deal with fatty acid transport and metabolism.

The psychosocial difficulties in brain disorders that explain short term changes in health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: This study identifies a set of psychosocial difficulties that are associated with short term changes in health outcomes across a heterogeneous set of brain disorders, neurological and psychiatric. METHODS: Longitudinal observational study over approximately 12 weeks with three time points of assessment and 741 patients with depression, bipolar disorders, multiple sclerosis, parkinson's disease, migraine, traumatic brain injury and stroke. The data on disability was collected with the checklist of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. The selected health outcomes were the Short Form 36 and the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule. Multilevel models for change were applied controlling for age, gender and disease severity. RESULTS: The psychosocial difficulties that explain the variability and change over time of the selected health outcomes were energy and drive, sleep, and emotional functions, and a broad range of activities and participation domains, such as solving problems, conversation, areas of mobility and self-care, relationships, community life and recreation and leisure. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are of interest to researchers and clinicians for interventions and health systems planning as they show that in addition to difficulties that are diagnostic criteria of these disorders, there are other difficulties that explain small changes in health outcomes over short periods of time.

Hippocampal Theta-Phase Modulation of Replay Correlates with Configural-Relational Short-Term Memory Performance

Thereis now growing evidencethatthe hippocampus generatestheta rhythmsthat can phase biasfast neural oscillationsinthe neocortex, allowing coordination of widespread fast oscillatory populations outside limbic areas. A recent magnetoencephalographic study showed that maintenance of configural-relational scene information in a delayed match-to-sample (DMS) task was associated with replay of that information during the delay period. The periodicity of the replay was coordinated by the phase of the ongoing theta rhythm, and the degree of theta coordination during the delay period was positively correlated with DMS performance. Here, we reanalyzed these data to investigate which brain regions were involved in generating the theta oscillations that coordinated the periodic replay of configural- relational information. We used a beamformer algorithm to produce estimates of regional theta rhythms and constructed volumetric images of the phase-locking between the local theta cycle and the instances of replay (in the 13- 80 Hz band). We found that individual differences in DMS performancefor configural-relational associations were relatedtothe degree of phase coupling of instances of cortical reactivations to theta oscillations generated in the right posterior hippocampus and the right inferior frontal gyrus. This demonstrates that the timing of memory reactivations in humans is biased toward hippocampal theta phase

Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

Association between Long-Term Exposure to Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Subclinical Atherosclerosis: The REGICOR Study

Background: Epidemiological evidence of the effects of long-term exposure to air pollu tion on the chronic processes of athero genesis is limited. Objective: We investigated the association of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollu tion with subclinical atherosclerosis, measured by carotid intima media thickness (IMT) and ankle–brachial index (ABI). Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data collected during the reexamination (2007–2010) of 2,780 participants in the REGICOR (Registre Gironí del Cor: the Gerona Heart Register) study, a population-based prospective cohort in Girona, Spain. Long-term exposure across residences was calculated as the last 10 years’ time-weighted average of residential nitrogen dioxide (NO2) estimates (based on a local-scale land-use regression model), traffic intensity in the nearest street, and traffic intensity in a 100 m buffer. Associations with IMT and ABI were estimated using linear regression and multinomial logistic regression, respectively, controlling for sex, age, smoking status, education, marital status, and several other potential confounders or intermediates. Results: Exposure contrasts between the 5th and 95th percentiles for NO2 (25 μg/m), traffic intensity in the nearest street (15,000 vehicles/day), and traffic load within 100 m (7,200,000 vehicle-m/day) were associated with differences of 0.56% (95% CI: –1.5, 2.6%), 2.32% (95% CI: 0.48, 4.17%), and 1.91% (95% CI: –0.24, 4.06) percent difference in IMT, respectively. Exposures were positively associated with an ABI of > 1.3, but not an ABI of < 0.9. Stronger associations were observed among those with a high level of education and in men ≥ 60 years of age. Conclusions: Long-term traffic-related exposures were associated with subclinical markers of atherosclerosis. Prospective studies are needed to confirm associations and further examine differences among population subgroups.key words: ankle–brachial index, average daily traffic, cardiovascular disease, exposure assessment, exposure to tailpipe emissions, intima media thickness, land use regression model, Mediterranean diet, nitrogen dioxide

Evaluation of work-related volatile organic compounds (VOCs) exposition in automotive painting cabins industrial cleanings

Automotive painting cabins are cleaned with several solvents, being great part of them mixtures of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), where the three xylene isomers are the most important constituents. To evaluate the work-related exposition of the cleaners that use these mixtures of solvents, xylenes have been determined in the working ambient air as well as its metabolite, o-m-p-methyl hippuric acid, has been analysed in urine to establish the dermal and respiratory exposition. This evaluation has been done in order to assess the occupational exposure to VOCs and to know the working conditions of the cleaners, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE), the engineering control and the work practices.The xylenes have been chosen as indicators of exposition because they are the main components in the cleaning solvents used, with a level of concentration between 50% and 85%.The Xylenes have an occupational exposure limit (8 h TWA) of 50 ppm (221 mg/m3) and a short-term exposure limit (STEL) of 100 ppm (442 mg/m3). On the other hand, the biological exposure index (BEI) for xylenes is the sum of the total methyl hippuric acids in urine at the end of the work-shift, being the value 1500 mg/g creatinine.

Evaluation of potential breath biomarkers for active smoking: assessment of smoking habits

Different compounds have been reported as biomarkers of a smoking habit, but, to date, there is no appropriate biomarker for tobacco-related exposure because the proposed chemicals seem to be nonspecific or they are only appropriate for short-term exposure. Moreover, conventional sampling methodologies require an invasive method because blood or urine samples are required. The use of a microtrap system coupled to gas chromatography–mass spectrometry analysis has been found to be very effective for the noninvasive analysis of volatile organic compounds in breath samples. The levels of benzene, 2,5-dimethylfuran, toluene, o-xylene, and m- p-xylene have been analyzed in breath samples obtained from 204 volunteers (100 smokers, 104 nonsmokers; 147 females, 57 males; ages 16 to 53 years). 2,5-Dimethylfuran was always below the limit of detection (0.005 ppbv) in the nonsmoker population and always detected in smokers independently of the smoking habits. Benzene was only an effective biomarker for medium and heavy smokers, and its level was affected by smoking habits. Regarding the levels of xylenes and toluene, they were only different in heavy smokers and after short-term exposure. The results obtained suggest that 2,5-dimethylfuran is a specific breath biomarker of smoking status independently of the smoking habits (e.g., short- and long-term exposure, light and heavy consumption), and so this compound might be useful as a biomarker of smoking exposure

Evaluation of potential breath biomarkers for active smoking: assessment of smoking habits

Different compounds have been reported as biomarkers of a smoking habit, but, to date, there is no appropriate biomarker for tobacco-related exposure because the proposed chemicals seem to be nonspecific or they are only appropriate for short-term exposure. Moreover, conventional sampling methodologies require an invasive method because blood or urine samples are required. The use of a microtrap system coupled to gas chromatography–mass spectrometry analysis has been found to be very effective for the noninvasive analysis of volatile organic compounds in breath samples. The levels of benzene, 2,5-dimethylfuran, toluene, o-xylene, and m- p-xylene have been analyzed in breath samples obtained from 204 volunteers (100 smokers, 104 nonsmokers; 147 females, 57 males; ages 16 to 53 years). 2,5-Dimethylfuran was always below the limit of detection (0.005 ppbv) in the nonsmoker population and always detected in smokers independently of the smoking habits. Benzene was only an effective biomarker for medium and heavy smokers, and its level was affected by smoking habits. Regarding the levels of xylenes and toluene, they were only different in heavy smokers and after short-term exposure. The results obtained suggest that 2,5-dimethylfuran is a specific breath biomarker of smoking status independently of the smoking habits (e.g., short- and long-term exposure, light and heavy consumption), and so this compound might be useful as a biomarker of smoking exposure

Civil conflict and human capital accumulation: The long-term effects of political violence in Perú

This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistent effect of exposure to political violence on humancapital accumulation. I exploit the variation in conflict location and birth cohorts to identify the longandshort-term effects of the civil war on educational attainment. Conditional on being exposed toviolence, the average person accumulates 0.31 less years of education as an adult. In the short-term,the effects are stronger than in the long-run; these results hold when comparing children within thesame household. Further, exposure to violence during early childhood leads to permanent losses. I alsoexplore the potential causal mechanisms.