Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household-level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999 and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID's sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one's confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID's complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.

Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

What risks do people perceive in everyday life? A perspective gained from the experience sampling method (ESM)

The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.

Self-similarity properties of natural images resemble those of turbulent flows

We show that the statistics of an edge type variable in natural images exhibits self-similarity properties which resemble those of local energy dissipation in turbulent flows. Our results show that self-similarity and extended self-similarity hold remarkably for the statistics of the local edge variance, and that the very same models can be used to predict all of the associated exponents. These results suggest using natural images as a laboratory for testing more elaborate scaling models of interest for the statistical description of turbulent flows. The properties we have exhibited are relevant for the modeling of the early visual system: They should be included in models designed for the prediction of receptive fields.

An overall statistic for testing symmetry in social interactions

The present work focuses the attention on the skew-symmetry index as a measure of social reciprocity. This index is based on the correspondence between the amount of behaviour that each individual addresses to its partners and what it receives from them in return. Although the skew-symmetry index enables researchers to describe social groups, statistical inferential tests are required. The main aim of the present study is to propose an overall statistical technique for testing symmetry in experimental conditions, calculating the skew-symmetry statistic (Φ) at group level. Sampling distributions for the skew- symmetry statistic have been estimated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation in order to allow researchers to make statistical decisions. Furthermore, this study will allow researchers to choose the optimal experimental conditions for carrying out their research, as the power of the statistical test has been estimated. This statistical test could be used in experimental social psychology studies in which researchers may control the group size and the number of interactions within dyads.

Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypothesis testing

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available of the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times.

A statistical procedure for testing social reciprocity at group, dyadic and individual levels

This paper examines statistical analysis of social reciprocity, that is, the balance between addressing and receiving behaviour in social interactions. Specifically, it focuses on the measurement of social reciprocity by means of directionality and skew-symmetry statistics at different levels. Two statistics have been used as overall measures of social reciprocity at group level: the directional consistency and the skew-symmetry statistics. Furthermore, the skew-symmetry statistic allows social researchers to obtain complementary information at dyadic and individual levels. However, having computed these measures, social researchers may be interested in testing statistical hypotheses regarding social reciprocity. For this reason, it has been developed a statistical procedure, based on Monte Carlo sampling, in order to allow social researchers to describe groups and make statistical decisions.

Defining the criteria for the evaluation of self-study multimedia language learning materials: do they facilitate or inhibit learner autonomy?

Durant els darrers anys, s’han publicat un gran nombre de materials multimèdia destinats a l’aprenentatge de llengües, la major part dels quals son CD-ROM dissenyats com a cursos per l’autoaprenentatge. Amb aquests materials, els alumnes poden treballar independentment sense l’assessorament d’un professor, i per aquest motiu s’ha afirmat que promouen i faciliten l’aprenentatge autònom. Aquesta relació, però, no es certa, com Phil Benson i Peter Voller 1997:10) han manifestat encertadament:(…) Such claims are often dubious, however, because of the limited range of options and roles offered to the learner. Nevertheless, technologies of education in the broadest sense can be considered to be either more or less supportive of autonomy. The question is what kind of criteria do we apply in evaluating them? En aquest article presentem una investigació conjunta on es defineixen els criteris que poden ser utilitzats per avaluar materials multimèdia en relació a la seva facilitat per permetre l’aprenentatge autònom. Aquests criteris son la base d’un qüestionari que s’ha emprat per avaluar una selecció de CD-ROM destinats a l’autoaprenentatge de llengües. La estructura d’aquest article és la següent: - Una introducció de l’estudi - Els criteris que s’han utilitzar per la creació del qüestionari - Els resultats generals de l’avaluació - Les conclusions que s’han extret i la seva importància pel disseny instructiu multimèdia

Eliciting and fostering learners' metacognitive knowledge about language learning in self-directed learning programs: a review of data collection methods and procedures

Són molts els estudis que avui en dia incideixen en la necessitat d’oferir un suport metodològic i psicològic als aprenents que treballen de manera autònoma. L’objectiu d’aquest suport és ajudar-los a desenvolupar les destreses que necessiten per dirigir el seu aprenentatge així com una actitud positiva i una major conscienciació envers aquest aprenentatge. En definitiva, aquests dos tipus de preparació es consideren essencials per ajudar els aprenents a esdevenir més autònoms i més eficients en el seu propi aprenentatge. Malgrat això, si bé és freqüent trobar estudis que exemplifiquen aplicacions del suport metodològic dins els seus programes, principalment en la formació d’estratègies o ajudant els aprenents a desenvolupar un pla de treball, aquest no és el cas quan es tracta de la seva preparació psicològica. Amb rares excepcions, trobem estudis que documentin com s’incideix en les actituds i en les creences dels aprenents, també coneguts com a coneixement metacognitiu (CM), en programes que fomenten l’autonomia en l’aprenentatge. Els objectius d’aquest treball son dos: a) oferir una revisió d’estudis que han utilitzat diferents mitjans per incidir en el CM dels aprenents i b) descriure les febleses i avantatges dels procediments i instruments que utilitzen, tal com han estat valorats en estudis de recerca, ja que ens permetrà establir criteris objectius sobre com i quan utilitzar-los en programes que fomentin l’aprenentatge autodirigit.

On an upper bound for the arithmetic self-intersection number of the dualizing sheaf on arithmetic surfaces

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Intermediate asymptotics beyond homogeneity and self-similarity: long time behavior for [formula]

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Testing Cayley graph densities

We present a computer-assisted analysis of combinatorial properties of the Cayley graphs of certain finitely generated groups: Given a group with a finite set of generators, we study the density of the corresponding Cayley graph, that is, the least upper bound for the average vertex degree (= number of adjacent edges) of any finite subgraph. It is known that an m-generated group is amenable if and only if the density of the corresponding Cayley graph equals to 2m. We test amenable and non-amenable groups, and also groups for which amenability is unknown. In the latter class we focus on Richard Thompson’s group F.

Choosing how to choose: self-stable majority rules and constitutions

Constitutional arrangements affect the decisions made by a society. We study how this effect leads to preferences of citizens over constitutions; and ultimately how this has a feedback that determines which constitutions can survive in a given society. Constitutions are stylized here, to consist of a voting rule for ordinary business and possibly different voting rule for making changes to the constitution. We deffine an equilibrium notion for constitutions, called self-stability, whereby under the rules of a self-stable constitution, the society would not vote to change the constitution. We argue that only self-stable constitutions will endure. We prove that self-stable constitutions always exist, but that most constitutions (even very prominent ones) may not be self-stable for some societies. We show that constitutions where the voting rule used to amend the constitution is the same as the voting rule used for ordinary business are dangerously simplistic, and there are (many) societies for which no such constitution is self-stable rule. We conclude with a characterization of the set of self-stable constitutions that use majority rule for ordinary business.

Self-selection consistent functions

This paper studies collective choice rules whose outcomes consist of a collection of simultaneous decisions, each one of which is the only concern of some group of individuals in society. The need for such rules arises in different contexts, including the establishment of jurisdictions, the location of multiple public facilities, or the election of representative committees. We define a notion of allocation consistency requiring that each partial aspect of the global decision taken by society as a whole should be ratified by the group of agents who are directly concerned with this particular aspect. We investigate the possibility of designing envy-free allocation consistent rules, we also explore whether such rules may also respect the Condorcet criterion.