Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

The spatial effect of intra-metropolitan agglomeration economies

This study deals with the role of spatial accessibility to agglomeration economies in the change in spatial structure of industrial employment for the case of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region of Barcelona (BMR). Using the growth in gross density of municipal employment between 1986 and 1996 for seven manufacturing industries as an indicator of changes in the spatial structure of employment, an exploration is made of the spatial impact of agglomeration economies operating on a local scale the municipality and three areas 5, 8 and 12 kilometres away surrounding the municipality itself - , agglomeration economies emerging from CBD and the main specialised subcentres in the region, and the network economies associated with the total jobs in the region, access to which depends on the distance from the main transport infrastructures

An experimental test of loss aversion and scale compatibility

This paper studies two important reasons why people violate procedure invariance, loss aversion and scale compatibility. The paper extends previous research on loss aversion and scale compatibility by studying loss aversion and scale compatibility simultaneously, by looking at a new decision domain, medical decision analysis, and by examining the effect of loss aversion and scale compatibility on "well-contemplated preferences." We find significant evidence both of loss aversion and scale compatibility. However, the sizes of the biases due to loss aversion and scale compatibility vary over trade-offs and most participants do not behave consistently according to loss aversion or scale compatibility. In particular, the effect of loss aversion in medical trade-offs decreases with duration. These findings are encouraging for utility measurement and prescriptive decision analysis. There appear to exist decision contexts in which the effects of loss aversion and scale compatibility can be minimized and utilities can be measured that do not suffer from these distorting factors.

A medium-scale open economy model of Australia

We estimate an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)model of Australia with a number of shocks, frictions and rigidities, matching alarge number of observable time series. We find that both foreign and domesticshocks are important drivers of the Australian business cycle.We also find that theinitial impact on inflation of an increase in demand for Australian commoditiesis negative, due to an improvement in the real exchange rate, though there is apersistent positive effect on inflation that dominates at longer horizons.

Small scale underwater change detection

In this paper, we present a method to deal with the constraints of the underwater medium for finding changes between sequences of underwater images. One of the main problems of underwater medium for automatically detecting changes is the low altitude of the camera when taking pictures. This emphasise the parallax effect between the images as they are not taken exactly at the same position. In order to solve this problem, we are geometrically registering the images together taking into account the relief of the scene

The mechanisms of agglomeration: Evidence from the effect of inter-industry relations on the location of new firms

The objective of this paper is to explore the relative importance of each of Marshall's agglomeration mechanisms by examining the location of new manufacturing firms in Spain. In particular, we estimate the count of new firms by industry and location as a function of (pre-determined) local employment levels in industries that: 1) use similar workers (labor market pooling); 2) have a customer- supplier relationship (input sharing); and 3) use similar technologies (knowledge spillovers). We examine the variation in the creation of new firms across cities and across municipalities within large cities to shed light on the geographical scope of each of the three agglomeration mechanisms. We find evidence of all three agglomeration mechanisms, although their incidence differs depending on the geographical scale of the analysis.

The mechanisms of agglomeration: Evidence from the effect of inter-industry relations on the location of new firms

The objective of this paper is to explore the relative importance of each of Marshall's agglomeration mechanisms by examining the location of new manufacturing firms in Spain. In particular, we estimate the count of new firms by industry and location as a function of (pre-determined) local employment levels in industries that: 1) use similar workers (labor market pooling); 2) have a customer- supplier relationship (input sharing); and 3) use similar technologies (knowledge spillovers). We examine the variation in the creation of new firms across cities and across municipalities within large cities to shed light on the geographical scope of each of the three agglomeration mechanisms. We find evidence of all three agglomeration mechanisms, although their incidence differs depending on the geographical scale of the analysis.

Pretreatment with statins improves early outcome in patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke: a pleiotropic effect of statins or a beneficial effect of hypercholesterolemia?

Background: Data from different studies suggest a favourable association between pretreatment with statins or hypercholesterolemia and outcome after ischaemic stroke. We examined whether there were differences in in-hospital mortality according to the presence or absence of statin therapy in a large population of first-ever ischaemic stroke patients and assessed the influence of statins upon early death and spontaneous neurological recovery. Methods: In 2,082 consecutive patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke collected from a prospective hospital-based stroke registry during a period of 19 years (1986-2004), statin use or hypercholesterolemia before stroke was documented in 381 patients. On the other hand, favourable outcome defined as grades 0-2 in the modified Rankin scale was recorded in 382 patients. Results: Early outcome was better in the presence of statin therapy or hypercholesterolemia (cholesterol levels were not measured) with significant differences between the groups with and without pretreatment with statins in in-hospital mortality (6% vs 13.3%, P = 0.001) and symptom-free (22% vs 17.5%, P = 0.025) and severe functional limitation (6.6% vs 11.5%, P = 0.002) at hospital discharge, as well as lower rates of infectious respiratory complications during hospitalization. In the logistic regression model, statin therapy was the only variable inversely associated with in-hospital death (odds ratio 0.57) and directly associated with favourable outcome (odds ratio 1.32).

Reconstruction of the join time-delay Doppler-scale reflectivity density in the wide-band regime. A frame theory based approach

The inverse scattering problem concerning the determination of the joint time-delayDoppler-scale reflectivity density characterizing continuous target environments is addressed by recourse to the generalized frame theory. A reconstruction formula,involving the echoes of a frame of outgoing signals and its corresponding reciprocalframe, is developed. A ‘‘realistic’’ situation with respect to the transmission ofa finite number of signals is further considered. In such a case, our reconstruction formula is shown to yield the orthogonal projection of the reflectivity density onto a subspace generated by the transmitted signals.

Effects of inorganic nitrogen (NH4Cl) and biodegradable organic carbon (CH3COONa) additions on a pilot-scale seawater biofilter

Biofilters degrade only a small fraction of the natural organic matter (NOM) contained in seawater which is the leading cause of biofouling in downstream processes. This work studies the effects of chemical additions on NOM biodegradation by biofilters. In this work, biofiltration of seawater with an empty bed contact time (EBCT) of 6 min and a hydraulic loading rate of 10 m h-1 reduces the biological oxygen demand (BOD7) by 8%, the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) by 6% and the UV absorbance at 254 nm (A254) by 7%. Different amounts of ammonium chloride are added to the seawater (up to twice the total dissolved nitrogen in untreated seawater) to study its possible effect on the removal of NOM by a pilot-scale biofilter. Seawater is amended with different amounts of easily biodegradable dissolved organic carbon (BDOC) supplied as sodium acetate (up to twice the DOC) for the same purpose. The results of this work reveal that the ammonium chloride additions do not significantly affect NOM removal and the sodium acetate is completely consumed by the biofiltration process. For both types of chemical additions, the BOD7, DOC and A254 in the outlet stream of the biofilter are similar to the values for the untreated control. These results indicate that this biofilter easily removes the BDOC from the seawater when the EBCT is not above 6 min. Furthermore, nitrogen does not limit the NOM biodegradation in seawater under these experimental conditions.

Effect of long-range Coulomb interaction on shot-noise suppression in ballistic transport

We present a microscopic analysis of shot-noise suppression due to long-range Coulomb interaction in semiconductor devices under ballistic transport conditions. An ensemble Monte Carlo simulator self-consistently coupled with a Poisson solver is used for the calculations. A wide range of injection-rate densities leading to different degrees of suppression is investigated. A sharp tendency of noise suppression at increasing injection densities is found to scale with a dimensionless Debye length related to the importance of space-charge effects in the structure.

The effect of lignin as a natural adhesive on the physico-mechanical properties of Vitis vinifera fiberboards

Lignin was used as a natural adhesive to manufacture Vitis vinifera fiberboards. The fiberboards were produced at laboratory scale by adding powdered lignin to material that had previously been steam-exploded under optimized pretreatment and pressing conditions. The kraft lignin used was washed several times with an acidic solution to eliminate any contaminants and low molecular weight compounds. This research studied the effects of amounts of lignin ranging from 5% to 20% on the properties of Vitis vinifera fiberboards. The fiberboard properties evaluated were density, water resistance in terms of thickness swelling, water absorption, and the mechanical properties in terms of modulus of rupture, modulus of elasticity, and internal bond. Results showed that fiberboards made from Vitis vinifera without lignin addition had weaker mechanical properties. However, the fiberboards obtained using acid-washed kraft lignin as a natural adhesive had good mechanical and water resistance properties that fully satisfied the relevant standard specifications

Health-related quality of life in the Cambridge City over-75s Cohort (CC75C): development of a dementia-specific scale and descriptive analyses.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of Health Related Quality of Life (HRQL) is important in people with dementia as it could influence their care and support plan. Many studies on dementia do not specifically set out to measure dementia-specific HRQL but do include related items. The aim of this study is to explore the distribution of HRQL by functional and socio-demographic variables in a population-based setting. METHODS: Domains of DEMQOL's conceptual framework were mapped in the Cambridge City over 75's Cohort (CC75C) Study. HRQL was estimated in 110 participants aged 80+ years with a confirmed diagnosis of dementia with mild/moderate severity. Acceptability (missing values and normality of the total score), internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha), convergent, discriminant and known group differences validity (Spearman correlations, Wilcoxon Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests) were assessed. The distribution of HRQL by socio-demographic and functional descriptors was explored. RESULTS: The HRQL score ranged from 0 to 16 and showed an internal consistency Alpha of 0.74. Validity of the instrument was found to be acceptable. Men had higher HRQL than women. Marital status had a greater effect on HRQL for men than it did for women. The HRQL of those with good self-reported health was higher than those with fair/poor self-reported health. HRQL was not associated with dementia severity. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge this is the first study to examine the distribution of dementia-specific HRQL in a population sample of the very old. We have mapped an existing conceptual framework of dementia specific HRQL onto an existing study and demonstrated the feasibility of this approach. Findings in this study suggest that whereas there is big emphasis in dementia severity, characteristics such as gender should be taken into account when assessing and implementing programmes to improve HRQL.

Moderate-Vigorous physical activity across Body Mass Index in females: moderating effect of endocannabinoids and temperament

Background: Endocannabinoids and temperament traits have been linked to both physical activity and body mass index (BMI) however no study has explored how these factors interact in females. The aims of this cross-sectional study were to 1) examine differences among distinct BMI groups on daytime physical activity and time spent in moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), temperament traits and plasma endocannabinoid concentrations; and 2) explore the association and interaction between MVPA, temperament, endocannabinoids and BMI. Methods: Physical activity was measured with the wrist-worn accelerometer Actiwatch AW7, in a sample of 189 female participants (43 morbid obese, 30 obese, and 116 healthy-weight controls). The Temperament and Character Inventory-Revised questionnaire was used to assess personality traits. BMI was calculated by bioelectrical impedance analysis via the TANITA digital scale. Blood analyses were conducted to measure levels of endocannabinoids and endocannabinoid-related compounds. Path-analysis was performed to examine the association between predictive variables and MVPA. Results: Obese groups showed lower MVPA and dysfunctional temperament traits compared to healthy-weight controls. Plasma concentrations of 2-arachidonoylglyceryl (2-AG) were greater in obese groups. Path-analysis identified a direct effect between greater MVPA and low BMI (b = −0.13, p = .039) and high MVPA levels were associated with elevated anandamide (AEA) levels (b = 0.16, p = .049) and N-oleylethanolamide (OEA) levels (b = 0.22, p = .004), as well as high Novelty seeking (b = 0.18, p<.001) and low Harm avoidance (b = −0.16, p<.001). Conclusions: Obese individuals showed a distinct temperament profile and circulating endocannabinoids compared to controls. Temperament and endocannabinoids may act as moderators of the low MVPA in obesity.