A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Elicitation of subjective crop yield PDF

En este trabajo se investiga la coherencia y confiabilidad de estimaciones de funciones de densidad de probabilidad (FDP) subjetivas de rendimientos de cultivos realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. Se utilizaron tres técnicas de elicitación diferentes: el método de estimación de FDP en dos pasos, la distribución Triangular y la distribución Beta. Los sujetos entrevistados ofrecieron estimaciones para los valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos (medio, máximo posible, más frecuente y mínimo posible) y para las FDP basadas en la estimación de intervalos. Para evaluar la persistencia, se utilizaron los conceptos de persistencia temporal y persistencia metodológica. Los resultados son interesantes para juzgar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas a los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

The daily market for funds in Europe: what has changed with the EMU?

This paper presents evidence that the existence of deposit and lending facilities combined with an averaging provision for the reserve requirement are powerful tools to stabilize the overnight rate. We reach this conclusion by comparing the behavior of this rate in Germany before and after the start of the EMU. The analysis of the German experience is useful because it allows to isolate the effects on the overnight rate of these particular instruments of monetary policy. To show that this outcome is a general conclusion and not a particular result of the German market, we develop a theoretical model of reserve management which is able to reproduce our empirical findings.

Stable condorcet rules

We consider the following allocation problem: A fixed number of public facilities must be located on a line. Society is composed of $N$ agents, who must be allocated to one and only one of these facilities. Agents have single peaked preferences over the possible location of the facilities they are assigned to, and do not care about the location of the rest of facilities. There is no congestion. In this context, we observe that if a public decision is a Condorcet winner, then it satisfies nice properties of internal and external stability. Though in many contexts and for some preference profiles there may be no Condorcet winners, we study the extent to which stability can be made compatible with the requirement of choosing Condorcet winners whenever they exist.

Environmental management problems, future generations and social decisions

The decisions of many individuals and social groups, taking according to well-defined objectives, are causing serious social and environmental problems, in spite of following the dictates of economic rationality. There are many examples of serious problems for which there are not yet appropriate solutions, such as management of scarce natural resources including aquifer water or the distribution of space among incompatible uses. In order to solve these problems, the paper first characterizes the resources and goods involved from an economic perspective. Then, for each case, the paper notes that there is a serious divergence between individual and collective interests and, where possible, it designs the procedure for solving the conflict of interests. With this procedure, the real opportunities for the application of economic theory are shown, and especially the theory on collective goods and externalities. The limitations of conventional economic analysis are shown and the opportunity to correct the shortfalls is examined. Many environmental problems, such as climate change, have an impact on different generations that do not participate in present decisions. The paper shows that for these cases, the solutions suggested by economic theory are not valid. Furthermore, conventional methods of economic valuation (which usually help decision-makers) are unable to account for the existence of different generations and tend to obviate long-term impacts. The paper analyzes how economic valuation methods could account for the costs and benefits enjoyed by present and future generations. The paper studies an appropriate consideration of preferences for future consumption and the incorporation of sustainability as a requirement in social decisions, which implies not only more efficiency but also a fairer distribution between generations than the one implied by conventional economic analysis.

Payoff-dependent balancedness and cores (revised version)

We prove the non-emptiness of the core of an NTU game satisfying a condition of payoff-dependent balancedness, based on transfer rate mappings. We also define a new equilibrium condition on transfer rates and we prove the existence of core payoff vectors satisfying this condition. The additional requirement of transfer rate equilibrium refines the core concept and allows the selection of specific core payoff vectors. Lastly, the class of parametrized cooperative games is introduced. This new setting and its associated equilibrium-core solution extend the usual cooperative game framework and core solution to situations depending on an exogenous environment. A non-emptiness result for the equilibrium-core is also provided in the context of a parametrized cooperative game. Our proofs borrow mathematical tools and geometric constructions from general equilibrium theory with non convexities. Applications to extant results taken from game theory and economic theory are given.

Equilibrium play and best response to (Stated) beliefs in constant sum games

We report experimental results on one-shot two person 3x3 constant sum games played by non-economists without previous experience in the laboratory. Although strategically our games are very similar to previous experiments in which game theory predictions fail dramatically, 80% of actions taken in our experiment coincided with the prediction of the unique Nash equilibrium in pure strategies and 73% of actions were best responses to elicited beliefs. We argue how social preferences, presentation effects and belief elicitation procedures may influence how subjects play in simple but non trivial games and explain the diferences we observe with respect to previous work.

Fabricació de Lents Zonals de Fresnel per aplicació als raigs X tous

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada al Paul Scherrer Institut del Maig a l’Octubre del 2006 amb l’ajuda i supervisió dels Dr. Konstantins Jefimovs i Dr. Christian David. Focalitzar raigs X tous és una necessitat essencial per al microanàlisis, la microscopia, i fer imatges en moltes Instal·lacions de Radiació Sincrotró. Les Lents Zonals de Fresnel (FZP, de la denominació anglesa “Fresnel Zone Plates”) han demostrat donar uns punts focals amb una resolució espacial destacada i una baixa il·luminació de fons. Tanmateix, la fabricació de FZP és complexa i no totalment reproduïble. A més a més, el temps de vida de les FZP és força curt, ja que estant situades sobre membranes de nitrur de silici molt fines i altament absorbents. Per tant, hem fet esforços per implementar FZP de silici, que s’espera que siguin més resistents. L’element està fet d’una oblia de cristall de silici poc absorbent, i no presenta cap interfase entre materials. Així doncs, aquestes lents són especialment adequades per a aguantar les extremes càrregues de radiació de les fonts de raigs X més brillants. Particularment, això és molt important per a les aplicacions a les pròximes generacions de fonts de raigs X, com els Làsers d’Electrons Lliures (FEL, de la denominació anglesa “Free Electron Laser”). El silici també garanteix que no hi hagi cap banda d’absorció en el rang d’energies de la finestra de l’aigua (200-520 eV), fent aquestes lents ideals per a fer imatges de mostres biològiques. En aquest informe, hi ha una descripció detallada de tots els passos involucrats en la fabricació de les Lents Zonals de Fresnel de silici. En resum, les estructures de FZP es modelen sobre una resina utilitzant litografia per feix d’electrons i llavors el patró es transmet al silici mitjançant un gravat d’ions reactius (RIE, de la denominació anglesa ‘Reactive Ion Etching’) utilitzant una fina (20 nm) màscara de Crintermitja. Les membranes de silici es poden aprimar després de la fabricació de les estructures per a garantir una transmissió suficient fins i tot a baixes energies. Aquest informe també inclou l’anàlisi i la discussió d’alguns experiments preliminars per avaluar el rendiment de les Si FZPs fets a la línia de llum PolLux del Swiss Ligth Source amb l’ajuda dels Dr. Jörg Raabe i Dr. George Tzvetkov.

1st National Accessiblity Plan 2004-2012: achieving equal opportunities and full participation through design for all

According to official statistics, disabled people in Spain number 3.5 million and make up 8.8% of the Spanish population. This group of people are increasingly being recognised as members of society with equal rights, and many of their demands are gradually being transformed into solutions that benefit society as a whole. One example is improved accessibility. Accessible built environments are more human and inclusive places, as well as being easier to get around. Improved accessibility is now recognised as a requirement shared by all members of society, although it is achieved thanks to the demands of disabled people and their representatives. The 1st National Accessibility Plan is a strategic framework for action aimed at ensuring that new products, services and built environments are designed to be accessible for as many people as possible (Design for All) and that existing ones are gradually duly adapted.

The Appraisal of projects with environmental impacts. Efficiency and Sustainability

It is usually assumed that the appraisal of the impacts experienced by present generations does not entail any difficulty. However, this is not true. Moreover, there is not a widely accepted methodology for taking these impacts into account. Some of the controversial issues are: the appropriate value for the discount rate, the choice of the units for expressing the impacts, physical or monetary units -income, consumption or investment- and the valuation of tangible and intangible goods. When approaching the problem of very long term impacts, there is also the problem of valuing the impacts experienced by future generations, through e.g., the use of an intergenerational discount rate. However, if this were the case, the present generation perspective would prevail, as if all the property rights on the resources were owned by them. Therefore, the sustainability requirement should also be incorporated into the analysis. We will analyze these problems in this article and show some possible solutions.

Incentives for interdisciplinary research

This paper is a positive analysis of the driving forces in interdisciplinary research. I take the perspective of a research institution that has to decide how to apply its resources among the production of two types of knowledge: specialized or interdisciplinary. Using a prize mechanism of compensation, I show that the choice of interdisciplinarity is compatible with profit maximization when the requirement for the production is sufficiently demanding, and when the new interdisciplinary field is not too neutral. Productive gains due to complementarities of efforts is the main advantage of interdisciplinary organization.

Navegación, guiado y control de vehículos aeroespaciales

El objetivo del proyecto es diseñar una plataforma de ensayos para la simulación de vuelos de vehículos aeroespaciales. La plataforma permitirá diseñar y evaluar los algoritmos de navegación, guiado y control de los vehículos aeroespaciales modelados en la plataforma de simulación, focalizando el trabajo de los ingenieros en el modelado de vehículos y en el desarrollo de sistemas de control digital. La memoria recoge las fases de un proyecto de ingeniería del software, describiendo el plan de proyecto, el análisis del sistema, la especificación de requisitos y el diseño del mismo.

Estudio para la implantación de un ERP en una empresa de transportes

Este proyecto presenta un estudio para la implantación de un Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) en una empresa de transportes. Para ello se muestra una primera parte teórica donde se da a conocer todo lo que comporta el término ERP y su proceso de implantación. A continuación se estudian los requerimientos y necesidades de la empresa objeto del estudio. Para finalizar, se estudian tres soluciones existentes el mercado actual de ERP’s y se selecciona la que mejor se adapta a las necesidades y requerimientos en vistas a una hipotética implantación.

Individual versus group strategy-proofness: when do they coincide?

A social choice function is group strategy-proof on a domain if no group of agents can manipulate its final outcome to their own benefit by declaring false preferences on that domain. Group strategy-proofness is a very attractive requirement of incentive compatibility. But in many cases it is hard or impossible to find nontrivial social choice functions satisfying even the weakest condition of individual strategy-proofness. However, there are a number of economically significant domains where interesting rules satisfying individual strategy-proofness can be defined, and for some of them, all these rules turn out to also satisfy the stronger requirement of group strategy-proofness. This is the case, for example, when preferences are single-peaked or single-dipped. In other cases, this equivalence does not hold. We provide sufficient conditions defining domains of preferences guaranteeing that individual and group strategy-proofness are equivalent for all rules defined on the