Evaluating the Performance of a Regional-Scale Photochemical Modelling System: Part I Ozone Predictions

We present a detailed evaluation of the seasonal performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system and the PSU/NCAR meteorological model coupled to a new Numerical Emission Model for Air Quality (MNEQA). The combined system simulates air quality at a fine resolution (3 km as horizontal resolution and 1 h as temporal resolution) in north-eastern Spain, where problems of ozone pollution are frequent. An extensive database compiled over two periods, from May to September 2009 and 2010, is used to evaluate meteorological simulations and chemical outputs. Our results indicate that the model accurately reproduces hourly and 1-h and 8-h maximum ozone surface concentrations measured at the air quality stations, as statistical values fall within the EPA and EU recommendations. However, to further improve forecast accuracy, three simple bias-adjustment techniques mean subtraction (MS), ratio adjustment (RA), and hybrid forecast (HF) based on 10 days of available comparisons are applied. The results show that the MS technique performed better than RA or HF, although all the bias-adjustment techniques significantly reduce the systematic errors in ozone forecasts.

Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Ophiolite-related ultramafic rocks (Serpentinites) in the Caribbean region: a review of their occurrence, composition, origin, emplacements and Ni-Laterite soil formation

Ultramafic rocks, mainly serpentinized peridotites of mantle origin, are mostly associated with the ophiolites of Mesozoic age that occur in belts along three of the margins of the Caribbean plate. The most extensive exposures are in Cuba. The ultramafic-mafic association (ophiolites) were formed and emplaced in several different tectonic environments. Mineralogical studies of the ultramafic rocks and the chemistry of the associated mafic rocks indicate that most of the ultramafic-mafic associations in both the northern and southern margins of the plate were formed in arc-related environments. There is little mantle peridotite exposed in the ophiolitic associations of the west coast of Central America, in the south Caribbean in Curacao and in the Andean belts in Colombia. In these occurrences the chemistry and age of the mafic rocks indicates that this association is mainly part of the 89 Ma Caribbean plateau province. The age of the mantle peridotites and associated ophiolites is probably mainly late Jurassic or Early Cretaceous. Emplacement of the ophiolites possibly began in the Early Cretaceous in Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, but most emplacement took place in the Late Cretaceous to Eocene (e.g. Cuba). Along the northern South America plate margin, in the Caribbean mountain belt, emplacement was by major thrusting and probably was not completed until the Oligocene or even the early Miocene. Caribbean mantle peridotites, before serpentinization, were mainly harzburgites, but dunites and lherzolites are also present. In detail, the mineralogical and chemical composition varies even within one ultramafic body, reflecting melting processes and peridotite/melt interaction in the upper mantle. At least for the northern Caribbean, uplift (postemplacement tectonics) exposed the ultramafic massifs as a land surface to effective laterization in the beginning of the Miocene. Tectonic factors, determining the uplift, exposing the peridotites to weathering varied. In the northern Caribbean, in Guatemala, Jamaica, and Hispaniola, uplift occurred as a result of transpresional movement along pre-existing major faults. In Cuba, uplift occurred on a regional scale, determined by isostatic adjustment. In the south Caribbean, uplift of the Cordillera de la Costa and Serrania del Interior exposing the peridotites, also appears to be related to strike-slip movement along the El Pilar fault system. In the Caribbean, Ni-laterite deposits are currently being mined in the central Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba, northern Venezuela and northwest Colombia. Although apparently formed over ultramafic rocks of similar composition and under similar climatic conditions, the composition of the lateritic soils varies. Factors that probably determined these differences in laterite composition are geomorphology, topography, drainage and tectonics. According to the mineralogy of principal ore-bearing phases, Dominican Ni-laterite deposits are classified as the hydrous silicate-type. The main Ni-bearing minerals are hydrated Mg-Ni silicates (serpentine and ¿garnierite¿) occurring deeper in the profile (saprolite horizon). In contrast, in the deposits of eastern Cuba, the Ni and Cooccurs mainly in the limonite zone composed of Fe hydroxides and oxides as the dominant mineralogy in the upper part of the profile, and are classified as the oxide-type.

Reconstructing snow avalanches in the Southeastern Pyrenees

A regional study of snow avalanche processes was undertaken in the SE Pyrenees. Dendrogeomorphology was used to date and reconstruct large-scale snow avalanche events that occurred in the last four decades. Dendrochronological analyses yielded the dates of nine winters when avalanches occurred in the recent past in six studied avalanche paths. Some of these avalanches were already known, but others had not been documented. In one case, the existing avalanche path map was improved with the dendrogeomorphological information of a larger past event. As a result of the dendrogeomorphological analyses, evidence for three regional-scale major avalanche years was identified in the SE Pyrenees from 1971 to 2004: 1971¿1972, 1995¿1996 and 2002¿2003. The specific synoptic atmospheric situations and the most likely nivometeorological and snowpack conditions that released these major avalanches were determined using weather data for the seasons of major avalanche releases. In 1971¿1972 the snow avalanche episode was characterized by a deep trough crossing the Pyrenees. In 1995¿1996 a variety of meteorological situations produced several episodes of major avalanches. In 2002¿2003 the more significant of two episodes was attributed to a north advection pumping an arctic air mass over the Pyrenees. The 1995¿1996 avalanche season proved to be the most notable in the four past decades in the Pyrenees.

The structure of Mediterranean rocky reef ecosystems across environmental and human gradients, and conservation implications

Historical exploitation of the Mediterranean Sea and the absence of rigorous baselines makes it difficult to evaluate the current health of the marine ecosystems and the efficacy of conservation actions at the ecosystem level. Here we establish the first current baseline and gradient of ecosystem structure of nearshore rocky reefs at the Mediterranean scale. We conducted underwater surveys in 14 marine protected areas and 18 open access sites across the Mediterranean, and across a 31-fold range of fish biomass (from 3.8 to 118 g m22). Our data showed remarkable variation in the structure of rocky reef ecosystems. Multivariate analysis showed three alternative community states: (1) large fish biomass and reefs dominated by non-canopy algae, (2) lower fish biomass but abundant native algal canopies and suspension feeders, and (3) low fish biomass and extensive barrens, with areas covered by turf algae. Our results suggest that the healthiest shallow rocky reef ecosystems in the Mediterranean have both large fish and algal biomass. Protection level and primary production were the only variables significantly correlated to community biomass structure. Fish biomass was significantly larger in well-enforced no-take marine reserves, but there were no significant differences between multi-use marine protected areas (which allow some fishing) and open access areas at the regional scale. The gradients reported here represent a trajectory of degradation that can be used to assess the health of any similar habitat in the Mediterranean, and to evaluate the efficacy of marine protected areas.

Parametrización de kB-1 para estimar el flujo de calor sensible con imágenes AVHRR

La necesidad de evaluar la evapotranspiración a escala regional para la gestión de regadíos ha hecho que sean innumerables los intentos por aplicar imágenes AVHRR-NOAA en la determinación el flujo de calor sensible. La principal limitación de estos métodos es la estimación de la resistencia aerodinámica. El parámetro crítico en la expresión de la resistencia aerodinámica es kB-1. La parametrización de kB-1 ha sido infructuosa a escala regional por no disponer hasta ahora de medidas de flujo de calor sensible a escala del píxel AVHRR en superficies heterogéneas y durante toda una temporada de riegos. Para resolver esta medida de flujo se ha desarrollado el cintilómetro. En la primera parte de este trabajo se estudia la representatividad espacial de las medidas del cintilómetro. El núcleo de esta aportación consiste en la correlación entre el parámetro kB-1, el NDVI y la altura solar. Los buenos resultados obtenidos (r2=0.81) ofrecen una nueva metodología para determinar el flujo de calor sensible. La estimación de kB-1, las imágenes AVHRR y los datos meteorológicos permiten calcular el flujo de calor sensible durante toda la temporada de riegos con errores inferiores al 20%.

Canvis ambientals i modelació antròpica del territori entre l'època ibèrica i l'alt medieval a Catalunya: aportacions de la palinologia

[spa] En los últimos años ha aumentado el interés arqueológico por los cambios territoriales de época histórica. Asimismo, el número de registros polínicos ha aumentado sensiblemente. A pesar de que la falta de marcos cronológicos fiables impone límites a las interpretaciones sobre antropización, el presente artículo pretende realizar una síntesis de los cambios paleoambientales documentados entre los siglos VIII aC y XII dC, haciendo especial referencia a las transformaciones humanas del entorno. Este conjunto de datos polínicos hace evidente una intervención humana al inicio del periodo ibérico, presión que se intensifica durante el iberismo Pleno con la expansión de actividades agrícolas. El mundo romano significa una explotación del espacio menos extensiva, si bien el el siglo VII dC se produce una extensión de los pastos tanto en sectores elevados del Pirineo como de litoral catalán que modifica profundamente el paisaje. [eng] The archaeological interest on the environmental changes during historical times has increased during the last decades. In accordance, a number of palynological from NE Spain records has been recently published. Despite chronological frame works are not yet enough reliable, this paper proposes a synthesis of landscape changes from VIIIth century BC to XIIth century AD. Palynological data suggest the presence of human impacts at ghe beginning of iberic times. Humans pressure, mainly farmning activities, intensified during iberian times. Roman times record a less extensive land use but at the IVth century AD, grazing expanded at regional scale. Pastures expanded again at VIIth century AD, reaching high altitudes in the Pyrenees while at littoral plains, meadows were used for grazing. This period resulted in a deep change of the Catalan lansacapes.

Structural control on present-day topography of a basement massif: the Central and Eastern Anti-Atlas (Morocco)

The Anti-Atlas basement massif extends South of the High Atlas, and, despite a very mild Cenozoic deformation, its altitude exceeds 1500m in large areas, reaching 3305m in Jbel Sirwa. Structural contours of the present elevation of a polygenic planation surface (the High Erosional surface) and of the base of Cretaceous and Neogene inliers have been performed to characterize the major tectonic structures. Gentle Cenozoic WSW-ENE- and N-Strending folds, of 60 to100km wavelength, reactivate Variscan structures, being the major contributors to the local topography of the Anti-Atlas. Reactivated thrusts of decakilometric to kilometric-scale and E-W trend involving the Neogene rocks exhibit a steep attitude and a small displacement, but they also produce a marked topographic expression. The resulting Cenozoic horizontal shortening along N-S sections across the Anti-Atlas is about 1%. The position of the major anticlinal hinges determines the location of the fluvial divides of the Warzazat basin and the Anti-Atlas, and a structural depression on one of these hinges (Jbel Saghro anticline) allowed the formerly endorheic Warzazat basin to drain southwards. The first Cenozoic structures generating local topography are of pre-mid Miocene age (postdated by 6.7Ma volcanic rocks at the Jbel Saghro), whereas the youngest thrust movements postdate the Pliocene sedimentary and volcanic rocks (involving 2.1Ma volcanic rocks at Jbel Sirwa). In addition to these features, the mean elevation of the Anti-Atlas at the regional scale is also the result of a mantle thermal anomaly reported in previous works for the entire Atlas system.

The efficiency of indicator groups for the conservation of amphibians in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

The adequate selection of indicator groups of biodiversity is an important aspect of the systematic conservation planning. However, these assessments differ in the spatial scale, in the methods used and in the groups considered to accomplish this task, which generally produces contradictory results. The quantification of the spatial congruence between species richness and complementarity among different taxonomic groups is a fundamental step to identify potential indicator groups. Using a constructive approach, the main purposes of this study were to evaluate the performance and efficiency of eight potential indicator groups representing amphibian diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Data on the geographic range of amphibian species that occur in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest was overlapped to the full geographic extent of the biome, which was divided into a regular equal-area grid. Optimization routines based on the concept of complementarily were applied to verify the performance of each indicator group selected in relation to the representativeness of the amphibians in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest as a whole, which were solved by the algorithm"simulated annealing", through the use of the software MARXAN. Some indicator groups were substantially more effective than others in regards to the representation of the taxonomic groups assessed, which was confirmed by the high significance of data (F = 312.76; p < 0.01). Leiuperidae was considered as the best indicator group among the families analyzed, as it showed a good performance, representing 71% of amphibian species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (i.e. 290 species), which may be associated with the diffuse geographic distribution of its species. This study promotes understanding of how the diversity standards of amphibians can be informative for systematic conservation planning on a regional scale.

Trophic versus geographic structure in stable isotope signatures of pelagic seabirds breeding in the northeast Atlantic

Feeding ecology and geographic location are 2 major factors influencing animal stable isotope signatures, but their relative contributions are poorly understood, which limits the usefulness of stable isotope analysis in the study of animal ecology. To improve our knowledge of the main sources of isotopic variability at sea, we determined δ15N and δ13C signatures in the first primary feather of adult birds from 11 Procellariiform species (n = 609) across 16 northeast Atlantic localities, from Cape Verde (20°N) to Iceland (60°N). Post-breeding areas (where the studied feather is thought to be grown) were determined using light-level geolocation for 6 of the 11 species. Isotopic variability was geographically unstructured within the mid-northeast Atlantic (Macaronesian archipelagos), but trophically structured according to species and regardless of the breeding location, presumably as a result of trophic segregation among species. Indeed, the interspecific isotopic overlap resulting from combining δ15N and δ13C signatures of seabirds was low, which suggests that most species exploited exclusive trophic resources consistently across their geographic range. Species breeding in north temperate regions (Iceland, Scotland and Northern Ireland) showed enriched δ15N compared to the same or similar species breeding in tropical and subtropical regions, suggesting some differences in baseline levels between these regions. The present study illustrates a noticeable trophic segregation of northeast Atlantic Procellariiformes. Our results show that the isotopic approach has limited applicability for the study of animal movements in the northeast Atlantic at a regional scale, but is potentially useful for the study of long-distance migrations between large marine systems

Flexible employment and cross- regional adjustment

Employment flexibility is commonly associated to greater labour mobility and thus faster cross-regional adjustments. The literature however offers very little hard evidence on this and quite limited theoretical guidance. This paper examines empirically the relationship between employment flexibility and cross-regional adjustment (migration) at the regional and local levels in the UK. Employment flexibility is associated to higher labour mobility (but only at a rather localised scale) and at the same time seems to reduce the responsiveness of migration to unemployment. This suggest that rising flexibility may be linked to higher persistence in spatial disparities, as intra-regional adjustments are strengthened while extraregional adjustments weakened. Keywords: Employment flexibility, regional migration, labour market adjustment JEL Codes: R11, R23, J08, J61

Regional integration and specialisation patterns in Spain

The aim of this paper is to analyse how economic integration in Europe has affected industrial geographical concentration in Spain and explain what the driving forces behind industry location are. Firstly, we construct regional specialisation and geographical concentration indices for Spanish 50 provinces and 30 industrial sectors in 1979, 1986 and 1992. Secondly, we carry out an econometric analysis of the determinants of geographical concentration of industries. Our main conclusion is that there is no evidence of increasing specialisation in Spain between 1979 and 1992 and that the most important determinant of Spain¿s economic geography is scale economies. Furthermore, traditional trade theory has no effects in explaining the pattern of industrial concentration

Regional integration and specialisation patterns in Spain

The aim of this paper is to analyse how economic integration in Europe has affected industrial geographical concentration in Spain and explain what the driving forces behind industry location are. Firstly, we construct regional specialisation and geographical concentration indices for Spanish 50 provinces and 30 industrial sectors in 1979, 1986 and 1992. Secondly, we carry out an econometric analysis of the determinants of geographical concentration of industries. Our main conclusion is that there is no evidence of increasing specialisation in Spain between 1979 and 1992 and that the most important determinant of Spain¿s economic geography is scale economies. Furthermore, traditional trade theory has no effects in explaining the pattern of industrial concentration

Regional integration and specialisation patterns in Spain

The aim of this paper is to analyse how economic integration in Europe has affected industrial geographical concentration in Spain and explain what the driving forces behind industry location are. Firstly, we construct regional specialisation and geographical concentration indices for Spanish 50 provinces and 30 industrial sectors in 1979, 1986 and 1992. Secondly, we carry out an econometric analysis of the determinants of geographical concentration of industries. Our main conclusion is that there is no evidence of increasing specialisation in Spain between 1979 and 1992 and that the most important determinant of Spain¿s economic geography is scale economies. Furthermore, traditional trade theory has no effects in explaining the pattern of industrial concentration