Human capital and regional development

We investigate the determinants of regional development using a newly constructed database of 1569 sub-national regions from 110 countries covering 74 percent of the world s surface and 97 percent of its GDP. We combine the cross-regional analysis of geographic, institutional, cultural, and human capital determinants of regional development with an examination of productivity in several thousand establishments located in these regions. To organize the discussion, we present a new model of regional development that introduces into a standard migration framework elements of both the Lucas (1978) model of the allocation of talent between entrepreneurship and work, and the Lucas (1988) model of human capital externalities. The evidence points to the paramount importance of human capital in accounting for regional differences in development, but also suggests from model estimation and calibration that entrepreneurial inputs and possibly human capital externalities help understand the data.

Regional allocation of skills

This paper addresses three questions: (1) why does the share of skilledworkers in regional population tend to be higher in wealthier regions? (2)what determines changes in this share over time? and (3) why is it that internalmigration tends to raise average skill levels of the receiving regions relativeto that of the sending regions? I construct a two--region dynamic model withagglomeration and congestion to answer these questions. It is shown that,under certain relationship between wages and demand for land, unskilledworkers are discouraged more strongly from living in a wealthier region andare less mobile than skilled workers.

Regional growth in Japan

I study the role of internal migration in income convergence acrossregions in Japan. Neoclassical theory predicts that migration should have beenan important source of convergence. Regression results, however, suggest thatmigration did not contribute to convergence. I investigate the possibilitythat this discrepancy is explained by taking into account the effects ofmigration on population composition, especially on educational attainment.I propose an empirical approach to quantify this ``educational compositioneffect''. It is shown that, although this effect did slow down convergence,its magnitude was too small to account for the discrepancy between theoryand empirics.

Trade, migration and regional unemployment

We formulate a dynamic core-periphery model with frictions in the job matching process to study the interplay between trade costs, migration and regional unemploymentin the short- and long-run. We find that the spatial distribution of unemployment mirrors (inversely) the distribution of economic activities. Further, we highlight a contrast between the short-run and the long-run effects of trade-induced migration on regional unemployment. In particular, an inßow of immigrants from the periphery into the core reduces the unemployment gap in the short-run, but exacerbates unemployment disparities in the long-run.

Cities, skills, and regional change

One approach to urban areas emphasizes the existence of certain immutable relationships, such as Zipf's or Gibrat's Law. An alternative view is that urban changereflects individual responses to changing tastes or technologies. This paper examinesalmost 200 years of regional change in the U.S. and finds that few, if any, growth relationships remain constant, including Gibrat's Law. Education does a reasonable jobof explaining urban resilience in recent decades, but does not seem to predict countygrowth a century ago. After reviewing this evidence, we present and estimate a simple model of regional change, where education increases the level of entrepreneurship.Human capital spillovers occur at the city level because skilled workers produce moreproduct varieties and thereby increase labor demand. We find that skills are associatedwith growth in productivity or entrepreneurship, not with growth in quality of life, atleast outside of the West. We also find that skills seem to have depressed housing supplygrowth in the West, but not in other regions, which supports the view that educatedresidents in that region have fought for tougher land-use controls. We also present evidence that skills have had a disproportionately large impact on unemployment duringthe current recession.

Human capital as a factor of growth and employment at the regional level. The case of Spain

We use statistical techniques to quantify the effects of school attainment on individual wages, participation rates and employment probabilities in Spain, and to measure the contribution of education to labour productivity at the regional level. These estimates are then combined with data on private and public expenditure on education and with information on taxes and social benefits to construct measures of the private and social returns to schooling, to explore the effects of public policies on private incentives to invest in human capital, and to analyse the long-term effects of schooling on public finances. The results are used, together with estimates of the returns to alternative assets, to draw some tentative conclusions regarding the adequacy of the aggregate investment patterns observed in the regions of Spain, and to identify changes in the design of national and EU cohesion and growth policies that may help enhance their effectiveness.

Personal redistribution and the regional allocation of public investment

How should an equity-motivated policy-marker allocate public capital (infrastructure) across regions. Should it aim at reducing interregional differences in per capita output, or at maximizing total output? Such a normative question is examined in a model where the policy-marker is exclusively concerned about personal inequality and has access to two policy instruments. (i) a personal tax-transfer system (taxation is distortionary), and (ii) the regional allocation of public investment. I show that the case for public investment as a significant instrument for interpersonal redistribution is rather weak. In the most favorable case, when the tax code is constrained to be uniform across regions, it is optimal to distort the allocation of public investment in favor of the poor regions, but only to a limited extent. The reason is that poor individuals are relatively more sensitive to public trans fers, which are maximized by allocating public investment efficiently. If! the tax code can vary across regions then the optimal policy may involve an allocation of public investment distorted in favor of the rich regions.

On the regional impact of public capital formation in Spain

The objective of this paper is to investigate, in a methodologically consistent manner, the regional effects of public capital formation and the possible existence of regional spillover effects in Spain. The empirical results are based on VAR estimates at both the aggregate and regional levels using output, employment, and private capital, as well as different measures of public capital. Empirical results suggest that public capital affects output positively at the aggregate level as well as in all but one region. For most regions, the effects of public capital installed in the region itself are important but the spillover effects induced from public capital installed elsewhere are also very important. In fact, the spillover effects account for over half of the total effects of public capital formation in Spain. Furthermore, these spillover effects have a clear geographical pattern in that they tend to be more important in the peripheral regions of the country. We also find that relative to their share of the Spanish output, the biggest beneficiaries of public capital formation are the largest regions in the country. This suggests that public capital formation has contributed to concentration of output in these regions. Finally, in terms of the effects of public capital formation on the private inputs we find that both private capital and employment are affected positively at the aggregate level as well as for most of the regions. Nevertheless, the effects on private capital seem to be larger. Also, the spillover effects are very important for private capital but not for employment. This reflects a great degree of dynamism and mobility in the capital markets as opposed to the labor markets.

Regional decomposition of CO2 emissions in the world: a cluster analysis

The purpose of this paper is to study the possible differences among countries as CO2 emitters and to examine the underlying causes of these differences. The starting point of the analysis is the Kaya identity, which allows us to break down per capita emissions in four components: an index of carbon intensity, transformation efficiency, energy intensity and social wealth. Through a cluster analysis we have identified five groups of countries with different behavior according to these four factors. One significant finding is that these groups are stable for the period analyzed. This suggests that a study based on these components can characterize quite accurately the polluting behavior of individual countries, that is to say, the classification found in the analysis could be used in other studies which look to study the behavior of countries in terms of CO2 emissions in homogeneous groups. In this sense, it supposes an advance over the traditional regional or rich-poor countries classifications .

Regional income inequalities in Europe: an updated measurement and some decomposition results

In this paper well-known summary inequality indexes are used to explore interregional income inequalities in Europe. In particular, we mainly employ Theils’population-weighted index because of its appealing properties. Two decomposition analysis are applied. First, regional inequalities are decomposed by regional subgroups (countries). Second, intertemporal inequality changes are separated into income and population changes. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, data confirm a reduction in crossregional inequality during 1982-97. Second, this reduction is basically due to real convergence among countries. Third, currently the greater part of European interregional disparities is within-country by nature, which introduce an important challenge for the European policy. Fourth, inequality changes are due mainly to income variations, population changes playing a minor role.

Knowledge, networks of cities and growth in regional urban systems

The objective of this paper is to measure the impact of different kinds of knowledge and external economies on urban growth in an intraregional context. The main hypothesis is that knowledge leads to growth, and that this knowledge is related to the existence of agglomeration and network externalities in cities. We develop a three-tage methodology: first, we measure the amount and growth of knowledge in cities using the OCDE (2003) classification and employment data; second, we identify the spatial structure of the area of analysis (networks of cities); third, we combine the Glaeser - Henderson - De Lucio models with spatial econometric specifications in order to contrast the existence of spatially static (agglomeration) and spatially dynamic (network) external economies in an urban growth model. Results suggest that higher growth rates are associated to higher levels of technology and knowledge. The growth of the different kinds of knowledge is related to local and spatial factors (agglomeration and network externalities) and each knowledge intensity shows a particular response to these factors. These results have implications for policy design, since we can forecast and intervene on local knowledge development paths.

La Inversión española en el extranjero (1993-2005). Origen regional: análisis y evolución

A nivel mundial, en las últimas tres décadas, la inversión directa ha experimentado un desarrollo espectacular. Los datos de la UNCTAD muestran como, entre 1970 y 2005, los flujos de inversión emitida crecieron más de un quinientos por cien. A pesar que, para el conjunto del periodo estos incrementos inversión fueron continuados, hay que diferenciar cuatro etapas. Hasta principios de los ochenta, el volumen no era excesivamente elevado, pero las tasas de incremento mostraban una tendencia cada vez mayor en el desarrollo de la inversión a nivel mundial. Entre mediados de los ochenta y noventa, los flujos empezaron a crecer de forma más notable y sostenida. El boom inversor se produjo, sobretodo, a partir de los cuatro últimos años del siglo veinte, cuando la inversión creció a un ritmo espectacular; con tasas de incremento anual que en algunos años (como el de 1999) rozaron el sesenta por ciento. Tras el inicio del siglo XXI, la inversión directa se ralentizó. Entre los años 2001 y 2005 las salidas de capital disminuyeron y, aunque se mantuvieron en niveles ciertamente altos en comparación con el conjunto del periodo, fueron sensiblemente más bajos que los registrados a finales de la década de los noventa. El incremento general de este tipo de movimientos internacionales de capital, iniciado, sobretodo, a partir de la década de los ochenta y eclosionado a mediados de los noventa tuvo origen en un contexto de progresiva y paulatina liberalización de las relaciones económicas a nivel mundial; en transformaciones institucionales de gran calado en prácticamente todas las economías del mundo, y en un contexto de fuerte crecimiento económico impulsado, en gran parte, por el desarrollo tecnológico de la llamada "nueva economía".

Inversión en infraestructuras, crecimiento y convergencia regional

This paper presents estimates of the contribution of infrastructure investment to the growth of output and employment in Spain and its regions and investigates the impact of this factor on the process of regional convergence in income per capita during the period 1965-2004.