Evaluating the probability and the impact of a failure in GMPLS based networks

In this paper, we define a new scheme to develop and evaluate protection strategies for building reliable GMPLS networks. This is based on what we have called the network protection degree (NPD). The NPD consists of an a priori evaluation, the failure sensibility degree (FSD), which provides the failure probability, and an a posteriori evaluation, the failure impact degree (FID), which determines the impact on the network in case of failure, in terms of packet loss and recovery time. Having mathematical formulated these components, experimental results demonstrate the benefits of the utilization of the NPD, when used to enhance some current QoS routing algorithms in order to offer a certain degree of protection

CB1 cannabinoid receptor modulates MDMA acute responses and reinforcement

Background: 3, 4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) is a popular recreational drug widely abused by young people. The endocannabinoid system is involved in the addictive processes induced by different drugs of abuse. However, the role of this system in the pharmacological effects of MDMA has not been yet clarified.Methods: Locomotion, body temperature and anxiogenic-like responses were evaluated after acute MDMA administration in CB1 knockout mice. Additionally, MDMA rewarding properties were investigated in the place conditioning and the intravenous self-administration paradigms. Extracellular levels of DA in the nucleus accumbens were also analyzed after a single administration of MDMA by in vivo microdialysis. Results: Acute MDMA administration increased locomotor activity, body temperature and anxiogenic-like responses in wild type mice, but these responses were lower or abolished in knockout animals. MDMA produced similar conditioned place preference and increased dopamine extracellular levels in the nucleus accumbens in both genotypes. Nevertheless, CB1 knockout mice failed to self-administer MDMA at any of the doses used. Conclusions: These results indicate that CB1 cannabinoid receptors play an important role in the acute prototypical effects of MDMA, and are essential in the acquisition of an operant behavior to self-administer this drug.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Optimal magnitude and probability of fines

The economic literature on crime and punishment focuses on the trade-off between probability and severity of punishment, and suggests that detection probability and fines are substitutes. In this paper it is shown that, in presence of substantial underdeterrence caused by costly detection and punishment, these instruments may become complements. When offenders are poor, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is low. Thus, the government does not invest a lot in detection. If offenders are rich, however, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is high, so it is more profitable to prosecute them.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

The Uncertain generalized probabilistic weighted average and its application in the theory of expertons

A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.

Modulation in Wistar rats of blood corticosterone compartmentation by sex and prior exposure to a cafeteria diet

In the metabolic syndrome, glucocorticoid activity is increased, but circulating levels show little change. Most of blood glucocorticoids are bound to corticosteroid-binding globulin (CBG), which liver expression and circulating levels are higher in females than in males. Since blood hormones are also bound to blood cells, and the size of this compartment is considerable for androgens and estrogens, we analyzed whether sex or eating a cafeteria diet altered the compartmentation of corticosterone in rat blood. The main corticosterone compartment in rat blood is that specifically bound to plasma proteins, with smaller compartments bound to blood cells or free. Cafeteria diet increased the expression of liver CBG gene, binding plasma capacity and the proportion of blood cell-bound corticosterone. There were marked sex differences in blood corticosterone compartmentation in rats, which were unrelated to testosterone. The use of a monoclonal antibody ELISA and a polyclonal Western blot for plasma CBG compared with both specific plasma binding of corticosterone and CBG gene expression suggested the existence of different forms of CBG, with varying affinities for corticosterone in males and females, since ELISA data showed higher plasma CBG for males, but binding and Western blot analyses (plus liver gene expression) and higher physiological effectiveness for females. Good cross- reactivity to the antigen for polyclonal CBG antibody suggests that in all cases we were measuring CBG.The different immunoreactivity and binding affinity may help explain the marked sex-related differences in plasma hormone binding as sex-linked different proportions of CBG forms.

Interferon-gamma release assays for the diagnosis of tuberculosis and tuberculosis infection in HIV-infected adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Despite the widespread use of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs), their role in diagnosing tuberculosis and targeting preventive therapy in HIV-infected patients remains unclear. We conducted a comprehensive systematic review to contribute to the evidence-based practice in HIV-infected people. Methodology/Principal Findings: We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane, and Biomedicine databases to identify articles published between January 2005 and July 2011 that assessed QuantiFERON H -TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT H .TB (T-SPOT.TB) in HIV-infected adults. We assessed their accuracy for the diagnosis of tuberculosis and incident active tuberculosis, and the proportion of indeterminate results. The search identified 38 evaluable studies covering a total of 6514 HIV-infected participants. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for tuberculosis were 61% and 72% for QFT-GIT, and 65% and 70% for T-SPOT.TB. The cumulative incidence of subsequent active tuberculosis was 8.3% for QFT-GIT and 10% for T-SPOT.TB in patients tested positive (one study each), and 0% for QFT-GIT (two studies) and T-SPOT.TB (one study) respectively in those tested negative. Pooled indeterminate rates were 8.2% for QFT-GIT and 5.9% for T-SPOT.TB. Rates were higher in high burden settings (12.0% for QFT-GIT and 7.7% for T-SPOT.TB) than in low-intermediate burden settings (3.9% for QFT-GIT and 4.3% for T-SPOT.TB). They were also higher in patients with CD4 + T-cell count, 200 (11.6% for QFT-GIT and 11.4% for T-SPOT.TB) than in those with CD4 + T-cell count $ 200 (3.1% for QFT-GIT and 7.9% for T-SPOT.TB). Conclusions/Significance: IGRAs have suboptimal accuracy for confirming or ruling out active tuberculosis disease in HIV-infected adults. While their predictive value for incident active tuberculosis is modest, a negative QFT-GIT implies a very low short- to medium-term risk. Identifying the factors associated with indeterminate results will help to optimize the use of IGRAs in clinical practice, particularly in resource-limited countries with a high prevalence of HIV-coinfection.

Monotonic continuous-time random walks with drift and stochastic reset events

In this paper we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which suddenly bring the system to the starting value and analyze the relevant statistical magnitudes. We focus our attention on monotonic continuous-time random walks with a constant drift: The process increases between the reset events, either by the effect of the random jumps, or by the action of the deterministic drift. As a result of all these combined factors interesting properties emerge, like the existence (for any drift strength) of a stationary transition probability density function, or the faculty of the model to reproduce power-law-like behavior. General formulas for two extreme statistics, the survival probability, and the mean exit time, are also derived. To corroborate in an independent way the results of the paper, Monte Carlo methods were used. These numerical estimations are in full agreement with the analytical predictions.

License prices for financially constrained firms

It is often alleged that high auction prices inhibit service deployment. We investigate this claim under the extreme case of financially constrained bidders. If demand is just slightly elastic, auctions maximize consumer surplus if consumer surplus is a convex function of quantity (a common assumption), or if consumer surplus is concave and the proportion of expenditure spent on deployment is greater than one over the elasticity of demand. The latter condition appears to be true for most of the large telecom auctions in the US and Europe. Thus, even if high auction prices inhibit service deployment, auctions appear to be optimal from the consumers' point of view.

Cooperative strategies for imperfect CSI scenarios based on distributed Alamouti

Les comunicacions cooperatives estan guanyant un gran interès en les comunicacions modernes degut a que permeten millorar la transmissió dʼinformació entre un emissor i un receptor utilitzant una sèrie de terminals situats entre ells. Aquest projecte és un estudi complet del sistemes cooperatius, analitzant el seu rendiment i comparant lʼús dʼun sol dʼaquests terminals amb lʼús del codi Alamouti, que utilitza dos terminals. Primer hi ha una introducció als sistemes cooperatius i a la teoria de la informació. Després hem estudiat un sistema cooperatiu amb la teoria de la informació com a base, en termes de probabilitat de fallada del sistema, i posteriorment lʼhem adaptat a un sistema cooperatiu real utilitzant una modulació QPSK, estudiant la seva probabilitat dʼerror de paquet. Finalment es proposen diversos protocols que permeten millorar el rendiment del sistema cooperatiu estudiat.

Information Mobility: Information Dissemination in Mobile Networks

En el nostre projecte, considerem un escenari urbà o interurbà on persones amb dispositius mòbils (smartphones) o vehicles equipats amb interfícies de comunicació, estan interessats en compartir fitxers entre ells o descarregar-los al creuar Punts d’Accés (APs) propers a la carretera. Estudiem la possibilitat d’utilizar la cooperació en les trobades casuals entre nodes per augmentar la velocitat de descàrrega global. Amb aquest objectiu, plantejem algoritmes per a la selecció de quins paquets, per a quins destins i quins transportistes s’escullen en cada moment. Mitjançant extenses simulacions, mostrem com les cooperacions carry&forward dels nodes augmenten significativament la velocitat de descàrrega dels usuaris, i com aquest resultat es manté per a diversos patrons de mobilitat, col•locacions d'AP i càrregues de la xarxa. Per altra banda, aparells com els smartphones, on la targeta de WiFi està encesa contínuament, consumeixen l'energia de la bateria en poques hores. En molts escenaris, una targeta WiFi sempre activa és poc útil, perque sovint no hi ha necessitat de transmissió o recepció. Aquest fet es veu agreujat en les Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN), on els nodes intercanvien dades quan es creuen i en tenen l’oportunitat. Les tècniques de gestió de l’estalvi d’energia permeten extendre la duració de les bateries. El nostre projecte analitza els avantatges i inconvenients que apareixen quan els nodes apaguen períodicament la seva targeta wireless per a estalviar energia en escenaris DTN. Els nostres resultats mostren les condicions en que un node pot desconnectar la bateria sense afectar la probabilitat de contacte amb altres nodes, i les condicions en que aquesta disminueix. Per exemple, es demostra que la vida del node pot ser duplicada mantenint la probabilitat de contacte a 1. I que aquesta disminueix ràpidament en intentar augmentar més la vida útil.

Enhancing MPLS QoS routing algorithms by using the network protection degree paradigm

IP based networks still do not have the required degree of reliability required by new multimedia services, achieving such reliability will be crucial in the success or failure of the new Internet generation. Most of existing schemes for QoS routing do not take into consideration parameters concerning the quality of the protection, such as packet loss or restoration time. In this paper, we define a new paradigm to develop new protection strategies for building reliable MPLS networks, based on what we have called the network protection degree (NPD). This NPD consists of an a priori evaluation, the failure sensibility degree (FSD), which provides the failure probability and an a posteriori evaluation, the failure impact degree (FID), to determine the impact on the network in case of failure. Having mathematical formulated these components, we point out the most relevant components. Experimental results demonstrate the benefits of the utilization of the NPD, when used to enhance some current QoS routing algorithms to offer a certain degree of protection

Automatic self-configuration of the logical network using distributed software agents

We present a system for dynamic network resource configuration in environments with bandwidth reservation. The proposed system is completely distributed and automates the mechanisms for adapting the logical network to the offered load. The system is able to manage dynamically a logical network such as a virtual path network in ATM or a label switched path network in MPLS or GMPLS. The system design and implementation is based on a multi-agent system (MAS) which make the decisions of when and how to change a logical path. Despite the lack of a centralised global network view, results show that MAS manages the network resources effectively, reducing the connection blocking probability and, therefore, achieving better utilisation of network resources. We also include details of its architecture and implementation